Causal Arrow Research Articles

Magical Contagion Beliefs and Fear of AIDS1

Extreme overreaction to nonrisky contact with persons with AIDS is considered to be a case of the operation of the sympathetic magical law of contagion. Prior work has shown that this principle (once in contact, always in contact) holds in the belief systems of American adults. In this paper, we show that four characteristics of this law correspond to the attitudes of college students toward AIDS: (a) actual physical contact is a critical factor in determining negative reactions, (b) even very brief contact is capable of transmitting substantial negative properties (dose insensitivity), (c) the effects of even brief contact are long lasting (permanence), and (d) the effects of contact can occur in a direction opposite to that of the normal causal arrow (backward contagion). We conclude that the magical law of contagion provides a useful way of formulating overconcern about the transmission of AIDS.

National Elections and Political Attitudes: The Case of Political Efficacy

Elections constitute a principal avenue of citizen involvement in political life, and knowledge of their effects on public attitudes towards the polity and the role of the individual therein has important implications for theories of democratic governance. One sucli attitude is political efficacy, ‘the feeling that individual political action does have, or can have, an impact on the political process’. Although many studies have documented that political efficacy is positively associated with electoral participation, the causal mechanisms involved are not well understood. Most researchers have simply assumed that the ‘causal arrow’ runs from efficacy to participation, i.e. from the attitude to the behaviour. Investigations of the hypothesis that the behaviour (participation) affects the attitude (efficacy) are rare. Rarer still are enquiries focusing on the impact of election outcomes on efficacy, and studies that examine both effects are virtually non-existent. In this Note covariance structure analysis is used to investigate the effects of voting, campaign activity and the outcomes of the 1984 national elections on political efficacy in the American electorate.

Tachyons and the Arrow of Causality

Tachyons and the Arrow of Causality