Catchment Storage Research Articles

Catchment‐scale conceptual modelling of water and solute transport in the dual flow system of the karst critical zone

AbstractHydrological and hydrochemical processes in the critical zone of karst environments are controlled by the fracture‐conduit network. Modelling hydrological and hydrochemical dynamics in such heterogeneous hydrogeological settings remains a research challenge. In this study, water and solute transport in the dual flow system of the karst critical zone were investigated in a 73.5‐km2 catchment in southwest China. We developed a dual reservoir conceptual run‐off model combined with an autoregressive and moving average model with algorithms to assess dissolution rates in the “fast flow” and “slow flow” systems. This model was applied to 3 catchments with typical karst critical zone architectures, to show how flow exchange between fracture and conduit networks changes in relation to catchment storage dynamics. The flux of bidirectional water and solute exchange between the fissure and conduit system increases from the headwaters to the outfall due to the large area of the developed conduits and low hydraulic gradient in the lower catchment. Rainfall amounts have a significant influence on partitioning the relative proportions of flow and solutes derived from different sources reaching the underground outlet. The effect of rainfall on catchment function is modulated by the structure of the karst critical zone (e.g., epikarst and sinkholes). Thin epikarst and well‐developed sinkholes in the headwaters divert more surface water (younger water) into the underground channel network, leading to a higher fraction of rainfall recharge into the fast flow system and total outflow. Also, the contribution of carbonate weathering to mass export is also higher in the headwaters due to the infiltration of younger water with low solute concentrations through sinkholes.

Hysteresis and parent-metabolite analyses unravel characteristic pesticide transport mechanisms in a mixed land use catchment

To properly estimate and manage pesticide occurrence in urban rivers, it is essential, but often highly challenging, to identify the key pesticide transport pathways in association to the main sources. This study examined the concentration-discharge hysteresis behaviour (hysteresis analysis) for three pesticides and the parent-metabolite concentration dynamics for two metabolites at sites with different levels of urban influence in a mixed land use catchment (25 km2) within the Swiss Greifensee area, aiming to identify the dominant pesticide transport pathways. Combining an adapted hysteresis classification framework with prior knowledge of the field conditions and pesticide usage, we demonstrated the possibility of using hysteresis analysis to qualitatively infer the dominant pesticide transport pathway in mixed land-use catchments. The analysis showed that hysteresis types, and therefore the dominant transport pathway, vary among pesticides, sites and rainfall events. Hysteresis loops mostly correspond to dominant transport by flow components with intermediate response time, although pesticide sources indicate that fast transport pathways are responsible in most cases (e.g. urban runoff and combined sewer overflows). The discrepancy suggests the fast transport pathways can be slowed down due to catchment storages, such as topographic depressions in agricultural areas, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and other artificial storage units (e.g. retention basins) in urban areas. Moreover, the WWTP was identified as an important factor modifying the parent-metabolite concentration dynamics during rainfall events. To properly predict and manage pesticide occurrence in catchments of mixed land uses, the hydrological delaying effect and chemical processes within the artificial structures need to be accounted for, in addition to the catchment hydrology and the diversity of pesticide sources. This study demonstrates that in catchments with diverse pesticide sources and complex transport mechanisms, the adapted hysteresis analysis can help to improve our understanding on pesticide transport behaviours and provide a basis for effective management strategies.

Inferring catchment flow path responses using a data-driven model: an exploratory study based on a generalized additive model

ABSTRACTIdentifying physical catchment processes from streamflow data, such as quick- and slow-flow paths, remains challenging. This study is designed to explore whether a flexible nonparametric regression model (generalized additive model, GAM) can be used to infer different flow paths. This assumes that the data relationship in data-driven models is also a reflection of catchment physical processes. The GAM, using time-lagged flow covariates, was fitted to synthetic rainfall–runoff data simulated using simple linear reservoirs. Partial plots of the time-lagged covariates show that the model could differentiate simple and more complex flow paths in simulated synthetic data with short and long memory systems and varying between dry and wet climates. Further analysis of data from real catchments showed that the model could differentiate catchments dominated by slow flow and by quick flow. Therefore, this study indicates that GAM can be used to identify catchment storages and delay processes from streamflow data.

Ephemeral and intermittent runoff generation processes in a low relief, highly weathered catchment

AbstractMost field‐based approaches that address runoff generation questions have been conducted in steep landscapes with shallow soils. Runoff generation processes in low relief landscapes with deep soils remain less understood. We addressed this by characterizing dominant runoff generating flow paths by monitoring the timing and magnitude of precipitation, runoff, shallow soil moisture, and shallow and deep groundwater dynamics in a 3.3 ha ephemeral‐to‐intermittent drainage network in the Piedmont region of North Carolina, USA. This Piedmont region is gently sloped with highly weathered soils characterized by shallow impeding layers due to decreases in saturated hydraulic conductivity with depth. Our results indicated two dominant catchment storage states driven by seasonal evapotranspiration. Within these states, distinct flow paths were activated, resulting in divergent hydrograph recessions. Groundwater dynamics during precipitation events with different input characteristics and contrasting storage states showed distinct shallow and deep groundwater flow path behavior could produce similar runoff magnitudes. During an event with low antecedent storage, activation of a shallow, perched, transient water table dominated runoff production. During an event with high antecedent storage, the deeper water table activated shallow flow paths by rising into the shallow transmissive soil horizons. Despite these differing processes, the relationship between active surface drainage length (ASDL) and runoff was consistent. Hysteretic behavior between ASDL and runoff suggested that while seasonal ASDLs can be predicted based on runoff, the mechanisms and source areas producing flow can be highly variable and not easily estimated from runoff alone. These processes and flow paths have significant implications for stream chemistry across seasons and storage states.

Quantifying the impacts of vegetation changes on catchment storage‐discharge dynamics using paired‐catchment data

AbstractIt is widely recognized that vegetation changes can significantly affect the local water availability. Methods have been developed to predict the effects of vegetation change on water yield or total streamflow. However, it is still a challenge to predict changes in base flow following vegetation change due to limited understanding of catchment storage‐discharge dynamics. In this study, the power law relationship for describing catchment storage‐discharge dynamics is reformulated to quantify the changes in storage‐discharge relationship resulting from vegetation changes using streamflow data from six paired‐catchment experiments, of which two are deforestation catchments and four are afforestation catchments. Streamflow observations from the paired‐catchment experiments clearly demonstrate that vegetation changes have led to significant changes in catchment storage‐discharge relationships, accounting for about 83–128% of the changes in groundwater discharge in the treated catchments. Deforestation has led to increases in groundwater discharge (or base flow) but afforestation has resulted in decreases in groundwater discharge. Further analysis shows that the contribution of changes in groundwater discharge to the total changes in streamflow varies greatly among experimental catchments ranging from 12% to 80% with a mean of 38 ± 22% (μ ± σ). This study proposed a new method to quantify the effects of vegetation changes on groundwater discharge from catchment storage and will improve our predictability about the impacts of vegetation changes on catchment water yields.

Spatial and temporal patterns of soil water storage and vegetation water use in humid northern catchments

Using stable isotope data from soil and vegetation xylem samples across a range of landscape positions, this study provides preliminary insights into spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of soil-plant water interactions in a humid, low-energy northern environment. Our analysis showed that evaporative fractionation affected the isotopic signatures in soil water at shallow depths but was less marked than previously observed in other environments. By comparing the temporal dynamics of stable isotopes in soil water mainly held at suctions around and below field capacity, we found that these waters are not clearly separated. The study inferred that vegetation water sources at all sites were relatively constant, and most likely to be in the upper profile close to the soil/atmosphere interface. The data analyses also suggested that both vegetation type and landscape position, including soil type, may have a strong influence on local water uptake patterns, although more work is needed to explicitly identify water sources and understand the effect of plant physiological processes on xylem isotopic water signatures.

Catchment water storage variation with elevation

One of the most important functions of catchments is the storage of water. Catchment storagebuffers meteorological extremes and interannual streamflow variability, controls the partitioningbetween evaporation and runoff, and influences transit times of water. Hydrogeological data toestimate storage are usually scarce and seldom available for a larger set of catchments. This studyfocused on storage in prealpine and alpine catchments, using a set of 21 Swiss catchments comprising different elevation ranges. Catchment storage comparisons depend on storage definitions.This study defines different types of storage including definitions of dynamic and mobile catchment storage. We then estimated dynamic storage using four methods, water balance analysis,streamflow recession analysis, calibration of a bucket‐type hydrological model Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning model (HBV), and calibration of a transfer function hydrographseparation model using stable isotope observations. The HBV model allowed quantifying the contributions of snow, soil and groundwater storages compared to the dynamic catchment storage.With the transfer function hydrograph separation model both dynamic and mobile storage wasestimated. Dynamic storage of one catchment estimated by the four methods differed up toone order of magnitude. Nevertheless, the storage estimates ranked similarly among the 21catchments. The largest dynamic and mobile storage estimates were found in high‐elevationcatchments. Besides snow, groundwater contributed considerably to this larger storage.Generally, we found that with increasing elevation the relative contribution to the dynamic catchmentstorage increased for snow, decreased for soil, but remained similar for groundwater storage.

Bedrock geology controls on catchment storage, mixing, and release: A comparative analysis of 16 nested catchments

AbstractThe bedrock controls on catchment mixing, storage, and release have been actively studied in recent years. However, it has been difficult to find neighbouring catchments with sufficiently different and clean expressions of geology to do comparative analysis. Here, we present new data for 16 nested catchments (0.45 to 410 km2) in the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg) that span a range of clean and mixed expressions of schists, phyllites, sandstones, and quartzites to quantify the relationships between bedrock permeability and metrics of water storage and release. We examined 9 years' worth of precipitation and discharge data, and 6 years of fortnightly stable isotope data in streamflow, to explore how bedrock permeability controls (a) streamflow regime metrics, (b) catchment storage, and (c) isotope response and catchment mean transit time (MTT). We used annual and winter precipitation–run‐off ratios, as well as average summer and winter precipitation–run‐off ratios to characterise the streamflow regime in our 16 study catchments. Catchment storage was then used as a metric for catchment comparison. Water mixing potential of 11 catchments was quantified via the standard deviation in streamflow δD (σδD) and the amplitude ratio (AS/AP) of annual cycles of δ18O in streamflow and precipitation. Catchment MTT values were estimated via both stable isotope signature damping and hydraulic turnover calculations. In our 16 nested catchments, the variance in ratios of summer versus winter average run‐off was best explained by bedrock permeability. Whereas active storage (defined here as a measure of the observed maximum interannual variability in catchment storage) ranged from 107 to 373 mm, total catchment storage (defined as the maximum catchment storage connected to the stream network) extended up to ~1700 mm (±200 mm). Catchment bedrock permeability was strongly correlated with mixing proxies of σδD in streamflow and δ18O AS/AP ratios. Catchment MTT values ranged from 0.5 to 2 years, based on stable isotope signature damping, and from 0.5 to 10 years, based on hydraulic turnover.

Using SAS functions and high‐resolution isotope data to unravel travel time distributions in headwater catchments

AbstractWe use high‐resolution tracer data from an experimental site to test theoretical approaches that integrate catchment‐scale flow and transport processes in a unified framework centered on selective age sampling by streamflow and evapotranspiration fluxes. Transport processes operating at the catchment scale are reflected in the evolving residence time distribution of the catchment water storage and in the age selection operated by out‐fluxes. Such processes are described here through StorAge Selection (SAS) functions parameterized as power laws of the normalized rank storage. Such functions are computed through appropriate solution of the master equation defining formally the evolution of residence and travel times. By representing the way in which catchment storage generates outflows composed by water of different ages, the main mechanism regulating the tracer composition of runoff is clearly identified and detailed comparison with empirical data sets are possible. Properly calibrated numerical tools provide simulations that convincingly reproduce complex measured signals of daily deuterium content in stream waters during wet and dry periods. Results for the catchment under consideration are consistent with other recent studies indicating a tendency for natural catchments to preferentially release younger available water. The study shows that power law SAS functions prove a powerful tool to explain catchment‐scale transport processes that also has potential in less intensively monitored sites.

Predicting shifts in rainfall‐runoff partitioning during multiyear drought: Roles of dry period and catchment characteristics

AbstractWhile the majority of hydrological prediction methods assume that observed interannual variability explores the full range of catchment response dynamics, recent cases of prolonged climate drying suggest otherwise. During the ∼decade‐long Millennium drought in south‐eastern Australia significant shifts in hydrologic behavior were reported. Catchment rainfall‐runoff partitioning changed from what was previously encountered during shorter droughts, with significantly less runoff than expected occurring in many catchments. In this article, we investigate the variability in the magnitude of shift in rainfall‐runoff partitioning observed during the Millennium drought. We re‐evaluate a large range of factors suggested to be responsible for the additional runoff reductions. Our results suggest that the shifts were mostly influenced by catchment characteristics related to predrought climate (aridity index and rainfall seasonality) and soil and groundwater storage dynamics (predrought interannual variability of groundwater storage and mean solum thickness). The shifts were amplified by seasonal rainfall changes during the drought (spring rainfall deficits). We discuss the physical mechanisms that are likely to be associated with these factors. Our results confirm that shifts in the annual rainfall‐runoff relationship represent changes in internal catchment functioning, and emphasize the importance of cumulative multiyear changes in the catchment storage for runoff generation. Prolonged drying in some regions can be expected in the future, and our results provide an indication of which catchments characteristics are associated with catchments more susceptible to a shift in their runoff response behavior.

Storage controls on the generation of double peak hydrographs in a forested headwater catchment

Double peak hydrographs are widespread phenomena but poorly understood mechanistically. In many cases, saturation-excess overland flow in the near-stream areas is assumed to control the initial peak, while the delayed peak is explained by subsurface flow in the soil or sediment cover or groundwater flow on fractured bedrock. Here we explore the mechanisms that control the generation of double peak hydrographs in a forested headwater catchment. We made use of the extensive high-resolution hydrometric time series collected in the catchment to estimate catchment storage and causal linkages. We found that double peak hydrographs occurred only after a certain amount of catchment storage was exceeded. The amount of this storage threshold was consistent over a 3-year period. The non-linear relationship between storage and discharge led to hysteretic relationships between both variables, and these hysteretic relationships were different for the different hydrograph types (single or double peak hydrographs). Discharge peaked before catchment storage during single peak hydrographs suggesting that single peaks were mainly generated by water quickly reaching the stream during precipitation pulses. It was catchment storage that peaked first during double peak hydrographs and consequently generated the delayed peak in the hydrograph. Our results also showed that double peak hydrographs were controlled in different proportions by contrasting landscape units (defined along a hillslope sequence). Hillslopes were connected to the stream at low discharge values, whereas the plateau dominated discharge generation when storage reached a certain threshold value.

Linking tracers, water age and conceptual models to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment

Assessing catchment runoff response remains a key research frontier because of limitations in current observational techniques to fully characterize water source areas and transit times in diverse geographical environments. Here, we report a study that combines empirical data with modelling to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment. The analysis integrated isotope tracers into conceptual rainfall–runoff models of varying complexity (from 5 to 11 calibrated parameters) that are able to simulate discharge and tracer concentrations and track the evolving age of stream water exiting the catchment. The model structures can be seen as competing hypotheses of catchment functioning and were simultaneously calibrated against uncertain streamflow gaugings and a 2-year daily isotope rainfall–runoff record. Comparison of the models was facilitated using global parameter sensitivity analysis and the resulting effect on calibration. We show that a variety of tested model structures reproduced water and tracer dynamics in stream, but the simpler models failed to adequately reproduce both. The resulting water age distributions of the tested models varied significantly with little similarity between the stream water age and stored water age distributions. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only some of the more complex models (from eight parameters) could be better constrained to infer more plausible water age distributions and catchment storage estimates. These models indicated that the age of water stored in the catchment is generally older compared with the age of water fluxes, with evapotranspiration age being younger compared with streamflow. However, the water age distributions followed a similar temporal behaviour dominated by climatic seasonality. Stream water ages increased during the dry season (greater than 1 year) and decreased with increased streamflow (a few weeks old) during the wet season. We further show that the ratios of the streamwater age to stored water age distribution and the water age distribution of actual evapotranspiration to the stored water age distribution from constrained models could potentially serve as useful hydrological indicators of catchment functioning. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators

Abstract. Drought monitoring and early warning (M & EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M & EW systems typically make use of drought indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but such indicators are not widely used in the UK. More generally, such tools have not been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the propagation from one to the other, using the SPI and the related Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), with the objective of improving understanding of the drought hazard in the UK. SPI and SSI time series were calculated for 121 near-natural catchments in the UK for accumulation periods of 1–24 months. From these time series, drought events were identified and for each event, the duration and severity were calculated. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought was examined by cross-correlating the 1-month SSI with various SPI accumulation periods. Finally, the influence of climate and catchment properties on the hydrological drought characteristics and propagation was investigated. Results showed that at short accumulation periods meteorological drought characteristics showed little spatial variability, whilst hydrological drought characteristics showed fewer but longer and more severe droughts in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK. Propagation characteristics showed a similar spatial pattern with catchments underlain by productive aquifers, mostly in the south and east, having longer SPI accumulation periods strongly correlated with the 1-month SSI. For catchments in the north and west of the UK, which typically have little catchment storage, standard-period average annual rainfall was strongly correlated with hydrological drought and propagation characteristics. However, in the south and east, catchment properties describing storage (such as base flow index, the percentage of highly productive fractured rock and typical soil wetness) were more influential on hydrological drought characteristics. This knowledge forms a basis for more informed application of standardised indicators in the UK in the future, which could aid in the development of improved M & EW systems. Given the lack of studies applying standardised indicators to hydrological droughts, and the diversity of catchment types encompassed here, the findings could prove valuable for enhancing the hydrological aspects of drought M & EW systems in both the UK and elsewhere.

Development of a data-driven semi-distributed hydrological model for regional scale catchments prone to Mediterranean flash floods

Summary Flash floods represent one of the most destructive natural hazards in the Mediterranean region. These floods result from very intense and spatially heterogeneous rainfall events. Distributed hydrological models are valuable tools to study these phenomena and increase our knowledge on the main processes governing the generation and propagation of floods over large spatial scales. They are generally built using a bottom\textendashup approach that generalizes small-physics representations of processes. However, top\textendashdown or data-driven approach is increasingly shown to provide also valuable knowledge. A simplified semi-distributed continuous hydrological model, named SIMPLEFLOOD, was developed, based on the simple dynamical system approach (SDSA) proposed by Kirchner (WRR, 2009, 45, W02429), and applied to the Ardeche catchment in France (2388km2). This data-driven method assumes that discharge at the outlet of a given catchment can be expressed as a function only of catchment storage. It leads to a 3-parameter nonlinear model according to rainfall and runoff observations. This model was distributed over sub-catchments and coupled with a kinematic wave based flow propagation module. The parameters were estimated by discharge recession analyses at several gauged stations. Parameter regionalization was conducted using a Factorial Analysis of Mixed Data (FAMD) and Hierarchical Classification on Principal Component (HCPC) in order to find relationships between the SDSA approach and catchments characteristics. Geology was found to be the main predictor of hydrological response variability and model parameters were regionalized according to the dominant geology. The SIMPLEFLOOD model was applied for a 12-year continuous simulation over the Ardeche catchment. Four flash flood events were also selected for further analysis. The simulated hydrographs were compared with the observations at 11 gauging stations with catchment size ranging from 17 to 2300km2. The results show a good performance of the model for the continuous and flash flood events occurring under wet conditions, whereas the model underestimates discharge for events occurring after a long dry period. The simple modeling approach provided interesting insight into the Ardeche catchment functioning and offers perspective for a better simulation of flash floods, mainly under wet conditions.

Discontinuous headwater stream networks with stable flowheads, Salmon River basin, Idaho

AbstractHeadwater streams expand, contract, and disconnect in response to seasonal moisture conditions or those related to individual precipitation events. The fluctuation of the surface flow extent, or active drainage network, reflects catchment storage characteristics and has important impacts on stream ecology; however, the hydrological mechanisms that drive this phenomenon are still uncertain. Here, we present field surveys of the active drainage networks of four headwater streams in Central Idaho's Frank Church‐River of No Return Wilderness (7–21 km2) spanning the spring and summer months of 2014. We report the total length of the active drainage networks, which varied as a power law function with stream discharge with an average exponent of 0.11 ± 0.03 (range of 0.05–0.20). Generally, these active drainage networks were less responsive to changes in discharge than many streams in past studies. We observed that the locations where surface flow originates, or flowheads, were often stable, and an average of 64% of the change in active drainage network length was explained by downstream discontinuities. Analysis of geologic and geomorphic characteristics of individual watersheds and flowheads suggests that most flowheads below approximately 2200 m are supported by stable flowpaths controlled by bedrock structure. At higher elevations, small accumulation areas and saturation of shallow and conductive soil and colluvium after snowmelt result in more mobile flowhead locations. The dynamics of active drainage networks can help illuminate the spatiotemporal structure of flowpaths supporting surface flow. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Contribution of alluvial groundwater to the outflow of mountainous catchments

AbstractAlluvial aquifers in mountainous regions cover typically a limited area. Their contribution to catchment storage and outflow is rarely isolated; alluvial groundwater discharge under gauging stations is generally assumed negligible; and hydrological models tend to lump alluvial storage with other units. The role of alluvial aquifers remains therefore unclear: can they contribute significantly to outflow when they cover a few percent of catchment area? Should they be considered a dynamic storage unit or merely a transmission zone? We address these issues based on the continuous monitoring of groundwater discharge, river discharge (one year), and aquifer storage (6 months) in the 6 km2 alluvial system of a 194 km2 catchment. River and groundwater outflow were measured jointly through “coupled gauging stations.” The contribution of alluvial groundwater to outflow was highest at the outlet of a subcatchment (52 km2), where subsurface discharge amounted to 15% of mean annual outflow, and 85% of outflow during the last week of a drought. In this period, alluvial‐aquifer depletion supported 75% of the subcatchment outflow and 35% of catchment outflow—thus 3% of the entire catchment supported a third of the outflow. Storage fluctuations occurred predominantly in the aquifer's upstream part, where heads varied over 6 m. Not only does this section act as a significant water source, but storage recovers also rapidly at the onset of precipitation. Storage dynamics were best conceptualized along the valley axis, rather than across the more conventional riparian‐channel transect. Overall the contribution of alluvial aquifers to catchment outflow deserves more attention.

Effect of bedrock permeability on stream base flow mean transit time scaling relationships: 2. Process study of storage and release

AbstractIn Part 1 of this two‐part series, Hale and McDonnell (2016) showed that bedrock permeability controlled base flow mean transit times (MTTs) and MTT scaling relations across two different catchment geologies in western Oregon. This paper presents a process‐based investigation of storage and release in the more permeable catchments to explain the longer MTTs and (catchment) area‐dependent scaling. Our field‐based study includes hydrometric, MTT, and groundwater dating to better understand the role of subsurface catchment storage in setting base flow MTTs. We show that base flow MTTs were controlled by a mixture of water from discrete storage zones: (1) soil, (2) shallow hillslope bedrock, (3) deep hillslope bedrock, (4) surficial alluvial plain, and (5) suballuvial bedrock. We hypothesize that the relative contributions from each component change with catchment area. Our results indicate that the positive MTT‐area scaling relationship observed in Part 1 is a result of older, longer flow path water from the suballuvial zone becoming a larger proportion of streamflow in a downstream direction (i.e., with increasing catchment area). Our work suggests that the subsurface permeability structure represents the most basic control on how subsurface water is stored and therefore is perhaps the best direct predictor of base flow MTT (i.e., better than previously derived morphometric‐based predictors). Our discrete storage zone concept is a process explanation for the observed scaling behavior of Hale and McDonnell (2016), thereby linking patterns and processes at scales from 0.1 to 100 km2.

Aggregation in environmental systems – Part 1: Seasonal tracer cycles quantify young water fractions, but not mean transit times, in spatially heterogeneous catchments

Abstract. Environmental heterogeneity is ubiquitous, but environmental systems are often analyzed as if they were homogeneous instead, resulting in aggregation errors that are rarely explored and almost never quantified. Here I use simple benchmark tests to explore this general problem in one specific context: the use of seasonal cycles in chemical or isotopic tracers (such as Cl−, δ18O, or δ2H) to estimate timescales of storage in catchments. Timescales of catchment storage are typically quantified by the mean transit time, meaning the average time that elapses between parcels of water entering as precipitation and leaving again as streamflow. Longer mean transit times imply greater damping of seasonal tracer cycles. Thus, the amplitudes of tracer cycles in precipitation and streamflow are commonly used to calculate catchment mean transit times. Here I show that these calculations will typically be wrong by several hundred percent, when applied to catchments with realistic degrees of spatial heterogeneity. This aggregation bias arises from the strong nonlinearity in the relationship between tracer cycle amplitude and mean travel time. I propose an alternative storage metric, the young water fraction in streamflow, defined as the fraction of runoff with transit times of less than roughly 0.2 years. I show that this young water fraction (not to be confused with event-based "new water" in hydrograph separations) is accurately predicted by seasonal tracer cycles within a precision of a few percent, across the entire range of mean transit times from almost zero to almost infinity. Importantly, this relationship is also virtually free from aggregation error. That is, seasonal tracer cycles also accurately predict the young water fraction in runoff from highly heterogeneous mixtures of subcatchments with strongly contrasting transit-time distributions. Thus, although tracer cycle amplitudes yield biased and unreliable estimates of catchment mean travel times in heterogeneous catchments, they can be used to reliably estimate the fraction of young water in runoff.

The analysis of future flood risk in the UK using the Future Flood Explorer

The assessment of future flood risk presented considers three climate change scenarios (a 2°C and 4°C change in Global Mean Temperature by the 2050s and 2080s and a more extreme, but plausible future, the so-called H++ future), and three population growth projections (low, high and no growth). The analysis covers the whole of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and the risks associated with coastal, fluvial, surface water and groundwater flooding. Eight individual Adaptation Measures (including spatial planning, flood defence, catchment storage) are used to construct five Adaptation Scenarios (including enhanced and reduced levels of adaptation ambition in comparison to present day). Future flood risks for a range of climate, population and adaptation combinations are assessed using the UK Future Flood Explorer. The analysis highlights that significant increases in flood risk are projected to occur as early as the 2020s; a finding that reinforces the need for urgent action. The analysis also highlights that to manage risk effectively under a 2 or 4°C future an enhanced whole system approach to adaptation is needed. This will require action by a broad range of stakeholders, from national level down to individual households and businesses.

Analysis of the soil water balance for large-scale reforestation with Eucommia ulmoides in the hilly red soil region of southern China

Returning farmland to forests is important for the protection of ecological values. Eucommia ulmoides is considered to be a suitable species for reforestation in the hilly red soil region of southern China. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the water supply and demand of an E. ulmoides plantation to provide insights into the feasibility of large-scale planting for ecological restoration and forest management activities in the hilly red soil region of southern China. With the measured precipitation, surface runoff and interflow and actual evapotranspiration (ETc) estimated by the modified P–M model, soil water storage (SWS) was estimated based on the water balance equation. Monthly variations of SWS were then compared with in situ measured SWS. The results showed that the estimated mean monthly water losses (the sum of the surface runoff, interflow and ETc) were 139.8 mm in a wet year and 120.0 mm in a dry year, while the measured mean monthly water input values (net precipitation) were 131.2 mm in a wet year and 70.8 mm in a dry year. Net soil water storage (ΔSWS) was negative in each month of the growing season in a dry year, but the soil water deficit was replenished during the following season. The model performance showed that the modified P–M model can be adapted to estimate the soil water storage in other forest catchments where no adequate in situ data are available. As a result of estimating the water balance and observing soil water storage in two different hydrological years, E. ulmoides is recommended as a suitable forest rehabilitation species in the study area, and a suitable plant region has been defined by the GIS technique based on the water balance model.