Catastrophic Events Research Articles

Protocol for the Chinese Real-World Evidence for Acute Spinal Cord Injury (ChiRES) study: a prospective, observational, multicentre cohort study of acute spinal cord injury

IntroductionSpinal cord injury (SCI) is a catastrophic event with devastating physical, social and occupational consequences for patients and their families. The number of patients with acute SCI in China continues...

A GIS-based catastrophe approach for optimal site selection for installation of solar power plants, East Azerbaijan province case study, Iran.

Due to depletion of fossil fuels and environmental issues, renewable energy consumption is increasingly growing. Solar energy as the most abundant renewable energy source available is becoming more popular around the world. In the current study, the optimal sites for solar photovoltaic power plants in East Azerbaijan province, Northwest Iran, were investigated. A total of 17 variables were categorized into four groups: climatic, geomorphological, environmental, and access-economic. In order to integrate the variables, a model based on catastrophe theory in the context of GIS was applied. The relative importance and weight of the criteria are computed based on the internal mechanism of the catastrophic system, thus greatly reducing subjectivism and uncertainties of the decision-making process. Five optimal sites located in the western part of the province within the counties of Malekan, Bonab, Ajabshir, Shabestar, and Tabriz were identified as suitable sites for the construction of solar photovoltaic power plants, where there are ideal conditions in terms of many environmental-human variables such as high potential of solar energy, high sunshine hours, low relative humidity, suitable slope, poor vegetation, distance to protected areas, proximity to the population centers, excellent access to the roads and to the main power lines.

A catastrophe theory view of accidental dwelling fire injuries

PurposeThe study aims to apply catastrophe theory to the analysis of accidental dwelling fire injuries in terms of age band, gender and contributory factors in order to inform fire prevention activities.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a case study in a UK Fire and Rescue service concerning analysis of the circumstances of accidental dwelling fire injuries, and the characteristics and behaviours associated with utilising frequency analysis, percentages, ratios and catastrophe theory modelling.FindingsOverall, males were more likely to be injured in an accidental dwelling fire compared to females by a ratio of 1.68 to 1, and those in the age band 50–64 appeared to be at maximum risk. A total of 15.4% of the accidental dwelling fire injuries involved consumption of alcohol or drugs, and 5.9% involved falling asleep.Research limitations/implicationsThe circumstances of accidental dwelling fire injury can be analysed to identify patterns concerning when a catastrophic change relating to ordinary use of domestic objects results in an accidental dwelling fire injury.Practical implicationsA catastrophe theory view can aid the understanding of how ordinary use of domestic objects results in an accidental dwelling fire injury.Social implicationsSince fire injuries have both a social and economic cost, understanding how such fire injuries occur can aid fire prevention through appropriately targeted fire prevention activities.Originality/valueThe study made use of a catastrophe theory view to analyse the circumstances under which accidental dwelling fire injuries occurred using fire injury data from a UK fire and rescue service.

Numerical and theoretical analysis of multi-pillar instability under elastic beams

With the increase of mining scale and depth, the cascading pillar failure (CPF) disaster has gradually become one of the core technical challenges for safe mining. This paper studies the CPF disaster of multi-pillar (P1-2, P2-3, P3-4 and P4-5) at 848 m level of Alhada Lead-Zinc Mine based on the RFPA2D numerical simulation software and stiffness theory. The numerical simulation results indicate that the load transfer effect induces the domino instabilities of double pillar (P2-3 and P3-4) and double pillar (P1-2 and P4-5), which is characterized by the ‘2 + 2’ compound failure mode. The physical essence of load transfer effect is revealed through numerical simulation, which is the elastic rebound of surrounding rockmass (such as roof-floor). In addition, the theoretical model of rebound overload mechanism of roof-multi-pillar-floor system is established based on the catastrophe theory, and the instability criterion, sudden jump and energy release of roof-multi-pillar-floor system are derived. Finally, the main influencing factors of load transfer effect such as pillar spacing and damage fracture zone are quantitatively analyzed, and the load transfer law shows that the load transfer effect decreases with the increasing pillar spacing and is hindered by the structural plane in the surrounding rockmass.

Evaluation of Rotation Capacity and Bauschinger Effect Coefficient of I-Shaped Beams Considering Loading Protocol Influences

Recent catastrophic earthquake events have reinforced the necessity of evaluating the seismic performance of buildings. Notably, the buildings can go into the plastic phase during a striking earthquake disaster. Under this condition, the current design codes assume seismic response reduction by virtue of the energy dissipation capacity of the structural members. In the strong-column–weak-beam design, which involves I-shaped beams and boxed columns, the mechanism is defined as a standard design scheme to prevent the building from collapsing. Therefore, energy dissipation relies highly on the I-shaped beam performance. However, the I-shaped beam performance can differ depending on the loading history experienced, whereas this effect is untouched in the prevailing evaluation equation. Hence, this study first performs cyclic loading tests of 11 specimens using different loading protocols. The experimental results clarify the fluctuation in the structural performance of I-shaped beams depending on the applied loading hysteresis, proving the necessity of considering the stress history for proper assessment. Furthermore, the database of experimental results is constructed based on the previous experimental studies. Ultimately, the novel evaluation equation is proposed to reflect the influences of the loading protocol. This equation is demonstrated to effectively assess the member performance retrieved from the experiment of 65 specimens, comprising 11 specimens from this investigation and 54 specimens from the database. The width–thickness ratio, shear span-to-depth ratio, and loading protocols are utilized as the evaluation parameters. Moreover, the prediction equation of the Bauschinger effect coefficient is newly established to convert the energy dissipation capacity under monotonically applied force into hysteretic energy dissipation under the cyclic forces.

Serious Failure Modes After EVAR Are Device Specific.

Type I and III endoleaks following endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) can lead to catastrophic events that require major re-interventions. We reviewed our experience with aortic endograft re-interventions for type I and III endoleaks and other serious failures among different devices. We retrospectively reviewed patients with a prior EVAR who underwent open conversion (OC) or major endovascular intervention (MEI) (re-lining, cuff/limb extension, parallel graft) for type I/III endoleaks at our institution from 2002 to 2019. Baseline characteristics, procedural details, re-interventions, and outcomes were collected. A total of 229 patients (194 men) underwent re-interventions for type I and III endoleaks after EVAR (90 OC, 139 MEI) for devices implanted between 1997 and 2019. Average age at re-intervention was 78±8.5 years. A total of 135 (59%) were implanted at our institution, whereas 93 (41%) were referred. Median time to re-intervention was 4 years with 25% to 75% interquartile range (IQR) of 2.2-6.6 years. There was no significant difference in baseline demographics or type of re-interventions (OC/MEI) between device types. 42/229 (18%) presented with ruptured aneurysms, 20/229 (9%) were symptomatic, whereas the rest presented with asymptomatic radiographic findings. Type 1A endoleak was present in 146/229 (63.8%-72 with proximal migration), type IB in 46/229 (20.1%), type IIIA in 37/229 (16.6%), type IIIB in 15/229 (6.5%), and persistent aneurysm sac growth with no radiographic evidence of an endoleak in 6/229 (2.6%). Devices included most commercial products: AFX, Excluder, AneuRx, Ancure, Endurant, and Zenith. A smaller number of investigational devices accounted for the rest. Type 1A endoleak was the most common indication for re-intervention among all devices except for AFX and ancure devices, proximal migration was a frequent presentation with AneuRx. AFX devices more frequently presented with a type III and ancure devices more frequently presented with a type IB endoleak. Serious failure modes after EVAR differ between endografts and occur throughout the follow-up period. This is important to guide targeted interrogation of surveillance studies and follow-up schedules, even for discontinued devices, as well as comparisons between various series and estimation of EVAR failure rates. Surveillance after EVAR is critical for long term success of the repair, understanding of the differential modes of failure of every graft available is important in the longitudinal evaluation of these endografts. Equally important is the understanding of the modes of failure of legacy endografts that are no longer on the market but still being followed, in order to be able to tailor a surveillance regiemn and the evntual repair if needed.

Does Reduced Space Result in Fewer Rights? Controlled Shrinking in the Urban Renewal of Genoa

This article explores three examples of urban design initiatives in Genoa in an attempt to highlight the potential and possible contradictions that controlled shrinking projects pose for the future of contemporary cities. Genoa, a symbol of Italian shrinking cities, has been strongly defined over the years by post-industrialisation transformations and by long-standing conditions of urban shrinkage. Despite facing continuous shrinkage, local urban development policies have historically focused exclusively on urban growth and expansion. Only recently have some areas in Genoa started to adopt spatial planning experiences that actively pursue degrowth policies, aiming to reduce existing urban fabric and decrease urban density. These initiatives are adopted in specific areas affected by demographic decline, hydrogeological risks, pollution, or catastrophic events. These spatial strategies justify their existence by invoking concepts like smart shrinkage and degrowth, promising improvements in both environmental and social conditions. However, this article notes how these concepts in Genoa are not aligned with the actual social and environmental challenges that these considerations and positions pose. In fact, the urban renewal initiatives introduced by institutions, in reality, lean towards a strategy of shrinkage and demolition of residential complexes, transportation infrastructure, and productive spaces, with diverse and conflicting results. The observed controlled shrinking projects neglect the synthesis of the territory as a palimpsest, ignore new ecological sensitivities, and lack awareness of the social implications associated with the concepts of smart shrinkage and degrowth. Instead, the three instances introduce a spatial project that still adheres to the underlying principles of growth and exploitation, presenting a shrinkage of the existing urban fabric that is mere illusion. It involves clearing out the deteriorated spaces only to fill them with capitalist rhetoric and models that, instead of creating space, undermine fundamental rights. Nonetheless, a closer examination of these three missed opportunities sheds light on the necessary knowledge, actions, and design approaches for a city to navigate urban shrinkage adeptly. This exploration also reveals the potential for the city to transform into a framework and platform, inspiring and guiding new urban planning paradigms for sustainable development.

Experimental and Finite Element Analyses of Adjustable Foundation Bolts in Transmission Towers

Uneven settlement of transmission tower foundations can result in catastrophic events, such as tower collapse and line failures, disrupting power transmission operations. To address the challenging repairs caused by uneven foundation settlement of transmission towers, we propose an adjustable foundation bolt (AFB). This paper provides a detailed theoretical analysis of the AFB’s stability and load-bearing capacity, including critical buckling force formulas and maximum normal stress expressions. Finite element simulations confirm the precision of our theoretical formulations. Additionally, we introduce a method using baffles to enhance its load-bearing capacity, analyzing the impact of different numbers of baffles through numerical simulations. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of baffles in enhancing structural load-bearing capacity. The device brings convenience and efficiency to the maintenance of transmission towers.

On the aeroelastic bifurcation of a flexible panel subjected to cavity pressure and inviscid oblique shock

The aeroelasticity of a panel in the presence of a shock is a fundamental issue of great significance in the development of hypersonic vehicles. In practical engineering, cavity pressure emerges as a crucial factor that influences the nonlinear dynamical characteristics of the panel. This study focuses on the aeroelastic bifurcation of a flexible panel subjected to both cavity pressure and oblique shock. To this end, a computational method is devised, coupling a high-fidelity reduced-order model for unsteady aerodynamic loads with nonlinear structural equations. The solution is meticulously tracked by continuous calculations. The obtained results indicate that cavity pressure plays a pivotal role in determining the bifurcation and stability characteristics of the system. First, the system exhibits hysteresis behaviour in response to the ascending and descending dynamic pressures. The evolution of hysteresis behaviour originates from the phenomenon of cusp catastrophe. Second, variations in cavity pressure induce three types of bifurcation phenomena, exhibiting characteristics akin to supercritical Hopf bifurcation, subcritical Hopf bifurcation and saddle-node bifurcation of cycles. The system's response at the critical points of these bifurcations manifests as long-period asymptotic flutter or explosive flutter. Lastly, the evolution of the dynamical system among these three types of bifurcations is an important factor contributing to the discrepancies observed in certain research results. This study enhances the understanding of the nonlinear dynamical behaviour of panel aeroelasticity in complex practical environments and provides new explanations for the discrepancies observed in certain research results.

Immature characteristics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone from SAR, GNSS and strong motion data of the 2023 Türkiye–Syria earthquake doublet

On February 6, 2023, an Mw 7.9 earthquake occurred in the western section of the East Anatolia Fault Zone (EAFZ). It was subsequently followed by an Mw 7.7 earthquake on the northern branch of the EAFZ, known as the Sürgü Fault Zone. Coseismic deformation fields were derived for these earthquakes using joint evaluation of near-field strong motion data, Global Navigation Satellite System data, and Synthetic Aperture Radar datasets. The coseismic slip distribution model was determined through the joint kinematic finite fault inversion. The Mw 7.9 earthquake was a left-lateral strike-slip event, predominantly occurring at depths up to 20 km. The earthquake displayed three distinct asperities that correlate well with bends and stepovers along the EAFZ. The Mw 7.7 earthquake also exhibited left-lateral strike-slip characteristics, with a major asperity along the Çardak Fault featuring a maximum slip of approximately 9.5 m at depths between 0 and 24 km. The occurrence of this unanticipated large Mw 7.9 catastrophic seismic event on a fault with low-intermediate structural maturity is noteworthy. In the vicinity of immature faults with multiple jogs, stress tends to accumulate at barrier locations. When the accumulated stress near several adjacent barriers reaches a certain threshold, it may result in the transformation of multiple barriers into asperities, triggering cascading ruptures.

Insights into glacial processes from micromorphology of silt-sized sediment

Abstract. Silt-rich meltwater plume deposits (MPDs) analyzed from marine sediment cores have elucidated relationships that are clearly connected, yet difficult to constrain, between subglacial hydrology, ice-marginal landforms, and grounding-zone retreat patterns for several glacial catchments. Few attempts have been made to infer details of subglacial hydrology, such as flow regime, geometry of drainage pathways, and mode(s) of sediment transport through time, from grain-scale characteristics of MPDs. Using sediment samples from MPD, till, and grounding-zone proximal diamicton collected offshore of six modern and relict glacial catchments in both hemispheres, we examine grain shape distributions and microtextures (collectively, grain micromorphology) of the silt fraction to explore whether grains are measurably altered from their subglacial sources via meltwater action. We find that 75 % of all imaged grains (n = 9400) can be described by 25 % of the full range of measured shape morphometrics, indicating grain shape homogenization through widespread and efficient abrasive processes in subglacial environments. Although silt grains from MPDs exhibit edge rounding more often than silt grains from tills, grain surface textures indicative of fluvial transport (e.g., v-shaped percussions) occur in only a modest number of grains. Furthermore, MPD grain surfaces retain several textures consistent with transport beneath glacial ice (e.g., straight or arcuate steps, (sub)linear fractures) in comparable abundances to till grains. Significant grain shape alteration in MPDs compared to their till sources is observed in sediments from glacial regions where (1) high-magnitude, potentially catastrophic meltwater drainage events are inferred from marine sediment records and (2) submarine landforms suggest supraglacial melt contributed to the subglacial hydrological budget. This implies that quantifiable grain shape alteration in MPDs could reflect a combination of high-energy flow of subglacial meltwater, persistent sediment entrainment, and/or long sediment transport distances through subglacial drainage pathways. Integrating grain micromorphology into analysis of MPDs in site-specific studies could therefore aid in distinguishing periods of persistent, well-connected subglacial discharge from periods of sluggish or disorganized drainage. In the wider context of deglacial marine sedimentary and bathymetric records, a grain micromorphological approach may bolster our ability to characterize ice response to subglacial meltwater transmission through time. This work additionally demonstrates that glacial and fluvial surface textures are retained on silt-sized quartz grains in adequate amounts for microtexture analysis, which has heretofore been conducted exclusively on the sand fraction. Therefore, grain microtextures can be examined on silt-rich glaciogenic deposits that contain little to no sand as a means to evaluate sediment transport processes.

Air-Water Flow Properties In Highly Unsteady Flows

Recent catastrophic events caused by tsunamis, storm surges, flood waves, and the failure of dams (e.g. in Ukraine and Libya) have shown to be a significant threat to densely populated coastal communities. Interactions with built environments can lead to violent wave impacts that may have severe consequences, including significant infrastructural damage and potential loss of life. The frequency of these water-related disasters is increasing globally due to climate change and sea level rise, resulting in a rising demand for deeper knowledge related to the physical processes of such hazards. The dynamic behaviour of these type of wave phenomena is described by long-period, high translatory waves, where the on-shore propagation or inland inundation is associated with sudden free-surface deformations. This results in a steeping of the slope at the leading edge, causing non-linear flow behaviour to prevail and inducing the wave to collapse. The breaking process generates a breaking roller at the wave front, containing a rapidly fluctuating mixture of air and water, associated with a strong recirculation. The high degree of air-water interaction in these unsteady flows has a significant impact on the flow properties as it influences many dynamic processes, including viscous and surface tension effects at air-bubble level, as well as larger scale gravitational effects associated with the turbulent flow and eddy formation (Brocchini and Peregrine, 2001). New innovative measurement techniques have allowed experimental studies to more precisely quantify the air-water interactions in multiphase flows. However, most experimental research focused on air-water flow properties in hydraulic jumps and other steady flows (e.g. spillway flows, plunging jets). Currently, limited research is available for unsteady flows and mostly based on small datasets and limited flow conditions. This lack of availability and diversity of experimental data restricts the understanding of how these multi-phase flows behave under different conditions, hence the need for future research.

Morphological and Molecular Characters Differentiate Common Morphotypes of Atlantic Holopelagic Sargassum

Since 2011, massive new strandings of holopelagic Sargassum have been reported on the coasts of the Caribbean, northern Brazil, Guiana, and West Africa, causing severe economic and ecological damage. Three common morphotypes (S. fluitans III, S. natans I, and S. natans VIII) were identified as responsible for these catastrophic events, with dominance shifts between them over time. However, the taxonomic status of these holopelagic Sargassum morphotypes remains unclear. Using an integrative taxonomy framework, combining a morphological study and molecular analyses, this study aimed to clarify their taxonomic status. Morphological analyses of 54 characters revealed no intermediate form between the three morphotypes, with the overall shape, nature of the axis, and size and shape of blades and vesicles being the most discriminating. An analysis of mitochondrial (IGS, cox2, cox3, mt16S rRNA, and nad6) and plastid (rbcL) markers confirmed the genetic divergence among the three morphotypes, with a lower level of divergence between the two S. natans morphotypes. Without additional molecular characterization, these morphotypes cannot be classified as three distinct species. However, due to their distinct morphological characteristics and sympatry within drifting aggregations, a revision of holopelagic species names is proposed, with Sargassum fluitans var. fluitans (for S. fluitans III), Sargassum natans var. natans (for S. natans I), and S. natans var. wingei (for S. natans VIII). This revision provides necessary clarity on the species involved in inundations of the tropical Atlantic.

Association of depression with widowhood, loneliness, and social non-participation among older women in India

BackgroundWidowhood is a disastrous incident occurring at any stage of life for surviving oneself particularly the older women having critical reflexes on their physical, emotional and as well as socio-economic well-bring. Living alone and being cornered to home may also have serious repercussions on psychological health conditions of geriatric population, a public health concern in recent times.The main essence of this present study was to investigate the impact of widowhood, loneliness and social non-participation on older women depression in Indian context. MethodsData for the present study were obtained from the first wave of the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI), conducted during 2017–2018. A total of 15,559 older adult women were availed for this present study. Descriptive analyses, association studies and finally multinominal logistic regression analyses were performed to fulfill the study objectives. ResultCurrently, 5 % of total study participant’s suffered from depression for most of the times. Findings suggested that widowhood is a catastrophic event giving rise to depression for most of the old women in their later life. With this, living alone in old age period also had a great impact on the prevalence of depression. Preponderance of older women depression is also found among those, not getting involved any social events. ConclusionThis study suggested that to reduce the prevalence of older women depression, targeted interventions in the form of psychological counseling, screening services and community involvement are very much needed.

Multiscale drivers of catastrophic heavy rainfall event in early August 2022 in South Korea

On 8–11 August 2022, South Korea experienced a catastrophic heavy rainfall event (HRE) with 14 fatalities. To elucidate its driving mechanisms, the present study performs a multiscale analysis by hierarchically delineating the synoptic and large-scale characteristics of the HRE. Its synoptic condition was featured by the confrontation of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the continental cyclone in the north of the Korean Peninsula. At their interface, a tremendous amount of moisture was transported in an elongated shape (i.e., atmospheric river) along with strong frontogenetic activity. This provided a favorable environment for potential instability. The continental cyclone was maintained throughout the HRE period, while a transient cyclone was superposed contributing to more intense rainfall in the early stage of the HRE. This persistent cyclone in the north of the Korean Peninsula originated from a far-upstream-originated cutoff low that became a part of the quasi-stationary wave train along the Asian subtropical jet. A linear model experiment suggests that the quasi-stationary wave train was excited by the enhanced tropical convection related to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The anomalously strong subtropical jet also acted as an effective waveguide. These results suggest that the integration of synoptic and large-scale processes is essential to understand this unprecedented HRE.

Permeability: The Driving Force That Influences the Mechanical Behavior of Polymers Used for Hydrogen Storage and Delivery

This article explores the main mechanisms that can generate damage in polymers and polymer-based materials used for hydrogen storage and distribution infrastructures. All of these mechanisms are driven by the permeability process that is enhanced by the operating temperature and pressure conditions. Hydrogen storage and delivery systems typically work under high pressure and a relatively wide range of temperatures, especially during the filling and emptying processes. Therefore, it is of great interest to better understand how this phenomenon can influence the integrity of polymer-based hydrogen infrastructures in order to avoid catastrophic events and to better design/investigate new optimized solutions. The first part of this paper discusses the main storage and delivery solutions for gas and liquid hydrogen. Then, the physics of the permeability is investigated with a focus on the effect of pressure and temperature on the integrity of polymers working in a hydrogen environment. Finally, the main mechanisms that mostly induce damage in polymers operating in a hydrogen environment and that influence their mechanical properties are explored and discussed. Particular focus was placed on the rapid gas decompression and aging phenomena. In addition, some of the limits that still exist for a reliable design of polymer-based storage and delivery systems for hydrogen are pointed out.

Analysis of the explosion risk of low-concentration oxygen-bearing coal bed methane in the low-temperature environment

In the process of deep cooling and liquefaction of low-concentration (concentration <30 %) oxygen-bearing coal bed methan, there is a risk of explosion because the methane concentration in the ultra-low temperature environment is within the explosion limit. It is of great guiding significance to study the occurrence mechanism and accident-causing process of such accidents. Firstly, the experimental system of low-temperature methane explosion characteristics is constructed, and it is found that when ignition energy exceeds a certain range, the process of deep cooling and liquefaction of low-concentration oxygen-bearing coal bed methane will cause explosion. Then, the occurrence of the gas explosion accident in low-temperature environment is briefly described, and the causes of the accident are analyzed preliminarily, and the dynamic characteristics of methane explosion propagation under ultra-low temperature conditions are studied by Fluent numerical simulation, and it is obtained that ultra-low temperature conditions have a promotion effect on the explosion pressure. Finally, based on the analysis of catastrophe theory, the traditional accident causation cusp catastrophe model is improved, and the “experimental safety state" and the “internal causes of explosion-external cause of explosion" are taken as the state variables and control variables respectively, and the explosion risk analysis model for deep cooling and liquefaction of low-concentration oxygen-bearing coal bed methane based on the cusp catastrophe theory is constructed. Based on the accident case, the process of accidents caused by risk factors is described, and the evolution mechanism of such disasters and accidents is clarified. Finally, the hazard state evaluation method for liquefaction explosion of low-concentration oxygen-bearing coal bed methane is proposed based on the catastrophe theory, and this evaluation model is applied to evaluate and analyze the hazard state of accident case. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual hazard state, confirming the rationality and feasibility of this evaluation method. In this paper, the key hazards of such accidents are found out in detail and provides support for safety decision-making in the deep cooling and liquefaction process of low-concentration oxygen-bearing coal bed methane.

Forecasting and early warning of shield tunnelling-induced ground collapse in rock-soil interface mixed ground using multivariate data fusion and Catastrophe Theory

The high spatial variability of the rock-soil interface (RSI) in complex geological conditions introduces strong uncertainties in both subsurface stratigraphy and geotechnical properties. Inaccurate interpretation of such uncertainties during engineering geology investigations increases the geohazard risk of excessive surface settlement or even severe catastrophic ground collapse when shield machines are excavating in RSI mixed ground. Prediction and early warning of excessive surface settlement are necessary measures to address such a risk; however, unavoidable drawbacks such as overfitting, insufficient accuracy, and ineffectiveness remain in existing prediction models and early warning algorithms and have posed significant challenges. In this study, a novel framework using both a multivariate data fusion prediction model and a dynamic early warning algorithm was developed for forecasting and early warning of ground collapse during shield tunnelling in RSI mixed ground. The prediction model is the Differential Evolutionary Optimized Quadratic Taylor Series Extended Kalman Filter (DEQT-EKF); the early warning algorithm is based on Catastrophe Theory and uses the Gradient Ratio (GR) criterion to identify catastrophic singularities. The practicality and accuracy of the framework are well verified by a subway shield tunnelling-induced ground collapse incident in East China with complex RSI mixed ground conditions. The prediction results are compared with the surface settlement measurements and good agreement is obtained, indicating that the DEQT-EKF model can achieve satisfactory accuracy in predicting excessive settlement. The use of the GR criterion can trigger the early warning one time step before the ground collapse event, indicating that it is a competent and practical early warning strategy for shield tunnelling-induced ground collapse. The framework has the potential to significantly reduce the risk of ground collapse caused by geological uncertainties when constructing shield tunnels through complex ground conditions.

Multi-criteria comparison analysis of spatial equity for emergency shelters in old and new urban districts: A case study in Wuhua District and Chenggong District of Kunming City, China

With the progression of urbanization and the concentration of populations in urban areas, cities are increasingly exposed to disaster risks. Emergency shelters play a critical role in disaster prevention and mitigation, as they are vital for providing temporary refuge and protection during and after catastrophic events. Assessing the spatial equity of these shelters is conducive to enhancing emergency relief capabilities and aiding in disaster risk reduction. However, there remains a lack of clarity regarding the comparative and quantitative disparities between new and old urban areas, particularly in developing countries like China, where urbanization is rapid and populations are dense. To address this issue, this study employed a combination of multi-source data and GIScience technology to analyze the spatial equity of emergency shelters in Wuhua District and Chenggong District of Kunming City, China. We evaluated the overall spatial equity of emergency shelters in both the old urban area (Wuhua District) and the new urban area (Chenggong District) using a comprehensive evaluation model with three criteria: evacuation population capacity, spatial accessibility, and the level of per capita effective shelter area. The results revealed that the old urban area suffers from insufficient effective emergency shelter capacity due to saturated construction land. More than 67 % of the shelters are short-term emergency shelters located close to buildings, which compromises spatial accessibility during earthquake disasters. The level of per capita effective shelter area, as indicated by SSTD, is 24.42 in Wuhua District, suggesting that the effective shelter area in each subdistrict is consistently low, regardless of its urban or suburban classification. In contrast, the new urban district boasts substantial effective emergency shelter capacities, both in the long-term and short-term types, surpassing the reference capacities. The rational spatial layout of various types of emergency shelters ensures that most regions with concentrated buildings are enveloped in accessibility time layers within a 25-min range. The SSTD index of Chenggong District is 349.23, underscoring the significant disparity in the level of per capita effective shelter area at the subdistrict scale, particularly in the district's urban villages and suburban regions. The findings of this study serve as a scientific reference for emergency management and urban planners to reasonably plan or upgrade shelter facilities, thereby improving urban resilience and promoting spatial equity in resource allocation among subdistricts, communities, and residents.

Paleoenvironmental significance of growth story of long-living deep-water acervulinid macroids from Kikai-jima shelf, Central Ryukyu Islands, Japan

Macroids are unattached centimetre-sized nodules built by encrusting invertebrates. Encrusting foraminifera (Acervulina inhaerens) and subordinate thin coralline algae form extensive macroid beds on sandy and gravelly bioclastic carbonates off Kikai-jima, on a coral-reef-related island shelf, in Central Ryukyu Islands, Japan. At water depths from 75 to 100 m, the beds consist of spheroidal and sub-spheroidal macroids, c. 6 cm in mean diameter, with asymmetric concentric inner arrangement. The macroids are bioeroded by Entobia, Maeandropolydora, Trypanites, are Gastrochaenolites, and microborings. They generally show two distinct growth stages separated by an abraded rugged surface deeply colonized by borers, mainly Entobia. Radiocarbon dating yielded an oldest age of c. 4400 cal yr BP for the earliest acervulinid growth, whereas the second stages were much younger, ranging in age from c. 1500 cal yr BP to present day. Datings of the two growth stages in five specimens indicate that active growth and growth interruption were not synchronous in the different nodules. For c. 4400 years the macroids grew within an estimated maximum range of palaeotemperature changes of c. 4.7 °C, under chronic oligotrophic to mesotrophic conditions, low-level hydrodynamism and low sedimentation rates. The lack of synchroneity among individual macroids rules out catastrophic events and ecosystem-wide environmental changes as possible causes of growth interruption. Random biogenic mobilization and temporal occupation of the macroid surface by organisms with no rigid skeleton and/or biofilms likely interrupted acervulinid growth at individual macroid scale. The environmental conditions in which Kikai-jima macroid beds develop do not support interpretations of acervulinid macroid accumulations during PETM and MECO events in the Western Tethys as indicators of eutrophic conditions.