Instrumental Catalog Research Articles

The Largest Expected Earthquake Magnitudes in Japan: The Statistical Perspective

Abstract Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg–Richter law, the b ‐value and the event rate λ above a given lower‐magnitude threshold (the a ‐value). The b ‐value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of λ . We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T f =30 years is m ≥9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long‐time horizons and high‐confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.

Educational Milestone Development for Transitional Year Residency Training

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) Outcome Project has shifted the focus for accrediting residency training programs from structure and process to documented outcomes. A central part of the ACGME's Next Accreditation System (NAS) is “articulating milestones of competency development in each discipline.”1 Resident achievement of educational Milestones will be an indicator of the educational effectiveness of residency programs. Most specialties have developed their Milestones through a collaborative effort involving representatives from the ACGME, the pertinent American Board of Medical Specialties (ABMS) organization, the pertinent professional specialty society, and the pertinent program directors' association. In contrast, the approach was quite different for Transitional Year (TY) residency programs, which comprise only 1 year of accredited postgraduate medical education, where there is no corresponding ABMS board certification entity or professional specialty society. In addition, graduates of TY training programs are not expected to demonstrate sufficient competency to enter the independent practice of medicine, as is the case with other specialty (categorical) residency programs.

On potential representations of the distribution law of rare strongest earthquakes

Assessment of long-term seismic hazard is critically dependent on the behavior of tail of the distribution function of rare strongest earthquakes. Analyses of empirical data cannot however yield the credible solution of this problem because the instrumental catalogs of earthquake are available only for a rather short time intervals, and the uncertainty in estimations of magnitude of paleoearthquakes is high. From the available data, it was possible only to propose a number of alternative models characterizing the distribution of rare strongest earthquakes. There are the following models: the model based on the Guttenberg – Richter law suggested to be valid until a maximum possible seismic event (Мmах), models of 'bend down' of earthquake recurrence curve, and the characteristic earthquakes model. We discuss these models from the general physical concepts supported by the theory of extreme values (with reference to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) and the multiplicative cascade model of seismic regime. In terms of the multiplicative cascade model, seismic regime is treated as a large number of episodes of avalanche-type relaxation of metastable states which take place in a set of metastable sub-systems. The model of magnitude-unlimited continuation of the Guttenberg – Richter law is invalid from the physical point of view because it corresponds to an infinite mean value of seismic energy and infinite capacity of the process generating seismicity. A model of an abrupt cut of this law by a maximum possible event, Мmах is not fully logical either. A model with the 'bend-down' of earthquake recurrence curve can ensure both continuity of the distribution law and finiteness of seismic energy value. Results of studies with the use of the theory of extreme values provide a convincing support to the model of 'bend-down' of earthquakes’ recurrence curve. Moreover they testify also that the 'bend-down' is described by the finite distribution law, i.e. the bend-down occurs more efficiently than it is envisaged in the commonly used model developed by Y. Kagan (which treats the bend-dawn as an exponential decay law). However, despite the finiteness of the distribution law, density of magnitudes decline quite slowly in the area close to the maximum possible Мmах event as (Мmах – M)n, where n varies in the range between 4 and 6 in the majority of cases. As a result Мmах value can be estimated only with a large error. In rare cases, if the space-and-time area under study contains higher number of strongest earthquakes, the empirical distribution law becomes close to the exponential law; in this case n value is quite high, and Мmах values becomes unstable and tend to infinite growth. In our study, the distribution law of strongest earthquakes was investigated by the methods based on the extreme values theory (world data and several regional catalogues were examined), and the results of calculation do not reveal cases of occurrence of characteristic events. However, such a seismic regime was revealed in a number of cases from paleoseismicity data and from some instrumental regional catalogues. Conditions providing for the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes are studied here using the multiplicative cascade model. According to [Rodkin, 2011], this model provides the simulation of all known regularities of seismic regime, such as a decrease in b-value in the vicinity of strong earthquakes, development of aftershock power cascade, and existence of seismic cycle and foreshock activity. This article considers an extension of the cascade model by adding of non-linear members in the kinetic cascade equation in order to describe effects of the 'bend-down' of the earthquake recurrence curve and the characteristic earthquakes occurrence. It is shown that in terms of the multiplicative cascade model, the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes is connected with development of the nonlinear positive feedback between the size of the current rupture zone and the rate of its further growth. The modelling results are compared with data on seismicity of the South-Eastern Asia, which suggest that the regime providing the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes appears to be typical of the seismic regime of subduction zones (while it is not observed outside such zones). It is concluded that the non-linear positive feedback that controls the possibility of occurrence of characteristic earthquakes may be caused with the presence of deep fluids of increased concentration in the subduction zones.

Updated seismic hazard assessment of Tunisia

Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model.

Quality Assessment of Ophthalmic Questionnaires

The aim of this article was to systematically review all the available ophthalmic patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments (questionnaires) that demonstrated interval measurement properties to identify the instruments with the highest psychometric quality for use in different eye diseases and conditions. An extensive literature review was carried out to identify all existing ophthalmic PRO instruments. Instruments were then excluded if they did not have demonstrable interval measurement properties; the remaining instruments were reviewed. The quality of the following psychometric properties was assessed: content development (initial item development process), performance of the response scale, dimensionality (whether the instrument measures a single construct), measurement precision, validity (convergent, concurrent, discriminant, and known groups), reliability (test-retest), targeting (whether the items are appropriate [e.g., difficulty level] for the population), differential item functioning (whether subgroups of people respond differently to an item), and responsiveness. The search identified 48 PRO instruments that demonstrated interval measurement properties, and these were relevant to nine applications: glaucoma, dry eye, refractive errors, cataract, amblyopia and strabismus, macular diseases, adult low vision, children low vision, and others. These instruments were evaluated against the psychometric property quality criteria and were rated for quality based on the number of criteria met. This review provides a descriptive catalog of ophthalmic PRO instruments to inform researchers and clinicians on the choice of the highest-quality PRO instrument suitable for their purpose.

Assessing performances of pattern informatics method: a retrospective analysis for Iran and Italy

Pattern informatics (PI) algorithm, which was introduced at the beginning of past decade, uses instrumental earthquake catalogs to investigate the time-dependent rate of seismicity in the study area and, based on the information from past events, calculates the probabilities for the occurrence of future large earthquakes. The main measure in this method is the number of events above a specified magnitude threshold M c that is counted over a gridded area. PI has been applied in several regions of the world and different variants of the method have been developed over the past decade. Hence, the problem of formally evaluating and comparing the performances of the different PI variants needs to be addressed from an operational perspective, in order to identify the preferred application scheme and as well as to improve the performances of the method. In this study, PI is applied for the first time to the retrospective analysis of the earthquake catalogs of Iran and Italy, so as to check whether this method could forecast the past large events in these two regions with different level of data completeness and complex seismotectonic setting. The original PI algorithm and one of its modified variants, as well as the relative intensity (RI) model, are used to check the stability and statistical significance of the obtained results. In order to assess and compare the obtained results, the performances of the different PI variants are analyzed considering different evaluation strategies, which turn out to provide significantly different scores even for the same algorithm variant. We show that a critical point in the assessment of the obtained results is related with the definition and quantification of the space uncertainty of the issued forecasts, that is, with the extent of the territory where large earthquakes are to be expected. Accordingly, we emphasize the need for an appropriate definition of the evaluation strategies, clearly and unambiguously indicating the area where a large earthquake has to be expected. The study shows that, with respect to application in Iran and Italy, the performances of PI algorithm (both original and modified variants) are highly dependent on the selected evaluation strategy and do not provide better information than the simple RI model, which does not account for temporal properties of seismicity evolution. The overall performances can be improved by introducing specific thresholds that discard the less active cells; however, being based on some posterior optimization, a rigorous prospective testing is required to assess the forecasting capability of the method. In this paper, we aim to set up the rules for such testing, including advance definition of the evaluation strategy.

An Earthquake Catalog for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Ecuador

Building a unified and homogeneous earthquake catalog is a preliminary step for estimating probabilistic seismic hazard in a country. Ecuador, a territory of ∼600 km×500 km, is characterized by an active seismicity, both in the shallow crust and in the subduction zone. Several international and local earthquake catalogs are available, covering different time and spatial windows, characterized by different magnitude types and uncertainties. After a careful analysis of each catalog, in particular for completeness and uncertainty levels, we propose a priority scheme for merging the instrumental catalogs. Moreover, several historical earthquakes are analyzed to estimate epicentral location and magnitude, completing the solutions obtained in a previous publication. Once the historical earthquakes are appended to the instrumental catalog, the resulting catalog covers five centuries in the Cordillera region. Next, homogenization of magnitudes and removal of aftershocks is performed; different options are studied and the impact on the recurrence curve is evaluated. For the Cordillera region within −2.5° and 1° latitude, the average occurrence of an earthquake with M w≥6.0 is 10–20 years based on the historical catalog.

Analysis of Italian Earthquake catalogs in the context of intermediate-term prediction problem

We perform a comparative analysis of regional and global earthquake catalogs currently available for the territory of Italy. We consider: (a) instrumental seismic catalogs provided by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma (INGV) for earthquake forecasting experiment in Italy within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); (b) Global Hypocenters’ Data provided by the USGS/NEIC, which is currently used in the real-time earthquake prediction experiment by CN and M8S algorithms in Italy, and (c) seismological Bulletin provided by the International Seismological Centre (ISC). We discuss advantages and shortcomings of these catalogs in the context of intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction problem in Italy, including the possibility of the catalog’s combined or integrated use. Magnitude errors in the catalog can distort statistics of success-to-failure scoring and eventually falsify testing results. Therefore, the analysis of systematic and random errors in magnitude presented in Appendixes can be of significance in its own right.

Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence

Abstract. The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.

A study of earthquake inter-occurrence times distribution models in Taiwan

Statistical studies on earthquake recurrence time probabilities have frequently been applied to seismic hazard analyses. In Taiwan, an instrumental catalog provides a good opportunity to examine statistical attributes of earthquakes around the study region, with the objective to evaluate the seismic risk and earthquake potential for hazard mitigation. With the completeness of recordings, seismic rates for small-to-moderate magnitudes can be obtained. An elimination of aftershocks was performed using a double-link cluster analysis method. The time intervals between a series of events (the inter-occurrence periods) are stationary with an identical temporal distribution. Based on the goodness-of-fit testing between a few models and observation, we suggested the use of the Gamma distribution in modeling this variable, earthquake inter-occurrence periods, for the study region. Accordingly, unified relationship was constructed, and statistical limitations of sparse sampling for devastating earthquakes (such as M ≥ 6.0 or 7.0) could be resolved. The empirical result evaluated by introducing the conditional probability indicates that the recurrence probability of a M ≥ 7.0 earthquake is 78.8 % within 10 years in Taiwan region.

Temporal clustering of the seismicity of the Absheron-Prebalkhan region in the Caspian Sea area

Abstract. The historical and instrumental catalog of the Absheron-Prebalkhan region in the Caspian Sea area was analyzed in order to reveal the existence of temporal clustering in the time dynamics of the seismicity. The timespan of the catalog is from 1842 to 2012 and the magnitude of the events ranges from 2.5 to 6.8. The Gutenberg-Richter analysis indicates 4.0 as the completeness magnitude of the catalog. The temporal clustering analysis was performed over the sequence of events with magnitude M ≥ 4 by using the methods of the Allan Factor and the coefficient of variation. Both the methods have revealed the presence of time-clusterized structures in the time dynamics of large events in the Absheron-Prebalkhan region. Such findings, which suggest a non-Poissonian behavior of the seismicity of the investigated area, could contribute to a deeper knowledge of the time dynamics of the seismicity and to a better assessment of the relative seismic hazard.

Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law

In order to examine variations in aftershock decay rate, we propose a Bayesian framework to estimate the {K, c, p}‐values of the modified Omori law (MOL), λ(t) = K(c + t)−p. The Bayesian setting allows not only to produce a point estimator of these three parameters but also to assess their uncertainties and posterior dependencies with respect to the observed aftershock sequences. Using a new parametrization of the MOL, we identify the trade‐off between the c and p‐value estimates and discuss its dependence on the number of aftershocks. Then, we analyze the influence of the catalog completeness interval [tstart, tstop] on the various estimates. To test this Bayesian approach on natural aftershock sequences, we use two independent and non‐overlapping aftershock catalogs of the same earthquakes in Japan. Taking into account the posterior uncertainties, we show that both the handpicked (short times) and the instrumental (long times) catalogs predict the same ranges of parameter values. We therefore conclude that the same MOL may be valid over short and long times.

The magnitude distribution of earthquakes near Southern California faults

We investigate seismicity near faults in the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model. We search for anomalously large events that might be signs of a characteristic earthquake distribution. We find that seismicity near major fault zones in Southern California is well modeled by a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, with no evidence of characteristic earthquakes within the resolution limits of the modern instrumental catalog. However, the b value of the locally observed magnitude distribution is found to depend on distance to the nearest mapped fault segment, which suggests that earthquakes nucleating near major faults are likely to have larger magnitudes relative to earthquakes nucleating far from major faults.

La Congregación de Religiosos Terciarios Capuchinos en la Historia de la Psicología Española

The Capuchin Tertiary Order, Amigonianos, is an institution dedicated to the education of youth in Reformatory Schools and Re-education Centers. Its work began in Spain in1889 and very soon started to use scientific Psychology and Psychotechnic methods not only to understand and to solve the problems of its students but, mainly, to reintegrate them as able and useful people to society. In this article we review: the work developed at the Santa Rita School (Madrid) and the Casa Reformatorio El Salvador (Amurrio); the curricula and psicopedagogic instruction at the research centers of the amigoniana institutions; the trips to study at the most developed European psicopedagogic centers of their time; some biographical profiles of outstanding scientific personalities within the amigonianan Order. Finally, we show at the annex a catalogue of devices and instruments that were used at the psychology laboratory of the Casa Reformatorio El Salvador.

La Congregación de Religiosos Terciarios Capuchinos en la Historia de la Psicología Española

The Capuchin Tertiary Order in the History of Spanish Psychology. The Capuchin Tertiary Order, Amigonianos, is an institution dedicated to the education of youth in Reformatory Schools and Re-education Centers. Its work began in Spain in1889 and very soon started to use scientific Psychology and Psychotechnic methods not only to understand and to solve the problems of its students but, mainly, to reintegrate them as able and useful people to society. In this article we review: the work developed at the Santa Rita School (Madrid) and the Casa Reformatorio El Salvador (Amurrio); the curricula and psicopedagogic instruction at the research centers of the amigoniana institutions; the trips to study at the most developed European psicopedagogic centers of their time; some biographical profiles of outstanding scientific personalities within the amigonianan Order. Finally, we show at the annex a catalogue of devices and instruments that were used at the psychology laboratory of the Casa Reformatorio El Salvador.

Probabilistic completeness assessment of the past 30 years of seismic monitoring in northeastern Italy

We investigate detection probabilities and recording completeness of the seismic network in northeastern Italy, operated by the OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale) during the years 1977–2007, using the Probability-based Magnitude of Completeness (PMC) method by Schorlemmer and Woessner (2008). Completeness of the dataset is varying in space and time due to the evolution of network geometry, instrumental characteristics, and monitoring and processing strategies over time: this is a common feature for all the regional and national instrumental catalogues that should be properly accounted for in seismicity rate evaluations. For the first time, we quantify with the new PMC method detection probabilities of a regional network operating since the late 70s, also including paper records. PMC is based on empirical data and requires the earthquake catalog containing phase picks, the station locations and on-/off-times, and the attenuation relation used to compute local magnitudes. In the 30-year period, we identified four time windows, roughly corresponding to the main changes in the acquisition system. We reconstructed on-/off-times by merging the available information on instruments with the analysis of inter-pick times at each station. We revised the relationship between duration and local magnitudes as the calibration of duration magnitude demonstrated to be not homogeneous among the different acquisition systems. Moreover, we introduced some constraints on the application of the PMC method to improve its performance for networks with sparse data and show the role of missing events and of temporary networks on regional completeness maps. The results demonstrate that the OGS network is detecting earthquakes completely down to magnitude 1.5 for a large part of the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia region since the earliest stages of its functionality; the OGS instrumental catalog is therefore the most precise and complete dataset available for this area. Our analysis shows that the change from analog to digital systems does not necessarily correspond to an improvement in detection capabilities. The computed time series of completeness maps are available and should be considered for any seismicity study involving data from the OGS network.

Choosing appropriate patient-reported outcomes instrument for glaucoma research: a systematic review of vision instruments

To identify vision Patient-Reported Outcomes instruments relevant to glaucoma and assess their content validity. MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE and SCOPUS (to January 2009) were systematically searched. Observational studies or randomised controlled trials, published in English, reporting use of vision instruments in glaucoma studies involving adults were included. In addition, reference lists were scanned to identify additional studies describing development and/or validation to ascertain the final version of the instruments. Instruments' content was then mapped onto a theoretical framework, the World Health Organization International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. Two reviewers independently evaluated studies for inclusion and quality assessed instrument content. Thirty-three instruments were identified. Instruments were categorised into thirteen vision status, two vision disability, one vision satisfaction, five glaucoma status, one glaucoma medication related to health status, five glaucoma medication side effects and six glaucoma medication satisfaction measures according to each instruments' content. The National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire-25, Impact of Vision Impairment and Treatment Satisfaction Survey-Intraocular Pressure had the highest number of positive ratings in the content validity assessment. This study provides a descriptive catalogue of vision-specific PRO instruments, to inform the choice of an appropriate measure of patient-reported outcomes in a glaucoma context.

The ETAS model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEP experiment

This study investigates the basic properties of the recent shallow seismicity in Italy, through stochastic modeling and statistical methods. Assuming that earthquakes are the realization of a stochastic point process, we have modeled the occurrence rate density in space, time and magnitude using an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. By applying the maximum likelihood procedure, we estimated the parameters of the model that best fit the Italian instrumental catalog, as recorded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) from April 16, 2005, to June 1, 2009. Then we applied the estimated model to a second independent dataset (June 1, 2009, to September 1, 2009). We show that the model performed well on this second database, through the relevant statistical tests. The model proposed in the present study is suitable for computing earthquake occurrence probability in real time, and to take part in international initiatives such as the Collaboratory Study for Earthquake Predictability, where we have submitted this model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity for ML>4.0.

Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010), approximates seismicity by a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog and a longer instrumental and historical catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and trustworthy, we used small earthquakes m>2.95 to illuminate active fault structures and likely future epicenters. By calibrating the model on two catalogs of different duration to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain) of predictability incurred when only a short but recent data record is available. Both forecasts, scaled to five and ten years, were submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. (2007) to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California, and, with over half of the five-year experiment over, the forecast performs better than its competitors.

Conceptions And Interpretations of Human Rights in Europe and Asia: Normative Aspects

Conceptions And Interpretations of Human Rights in Europe and Asia: Normative AspectsThe issue of confronting values between civilizations has become very important. It influences not only the level of international politics but also the international normative activity. It is very interesting for the modern international law and its doctrine. The most important factor of causing huge changes in the system of international law is still the international human rights protection and the international humanitarian law which is related to it. It is very difficult to create one catalogue of executive instruments and procedures but it is possible to influence the attitude toward the basic paradigms. The frictions appear from time to time and move to other planes. The West and Asia are still antagonists in the dialogue on the future of the world. The article is a contribution to the intercivilizational dialogue.