Casualty Risk Research Articles

A MARL Approach for Optimizing Positions of VANET Aerial Base-Stations on a Sparse Highway

A Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network (VANET) helps vehicles send and receive environmental and traffic information, making it a crucial component towards fully autonomous roads. For VANETs to serve their purpose, there has to be sufficient coverage, even in less populated areas. Moreover, a lot of the safety information is time-sensitive; excessive delay in data transfer can increase the risk of fatal accidents. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) can be used as mobile base-stations to fill in gaps of coverage. The placement of these UAVs is crucial towards how well the system performs. We are particularly interested in the placement of mobile base-stations for a rural highway with sparse traffic, as it represents the worst-case scenario for vehicular communication. Instead of heuristic or linear programming methods for optimal placement, we use multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). The main benefit of MARL is that it allows the agents to learn model-free through experience. We propose a variation of the traditional Deep Independent Q-Learning. The modifications include an observation function augmented with information directly shared between neighbouring agents as well a shared policy scheme. We also implement a custom sparse highway simulator that is used for training and testing our algorithm. Our testing shows that the proposed MARL algorithm is able to learn the placement policies that produce the maximum rewards for different scenarios while adapting to the dynamic road densities along the service area. Our experiments show that our model is scalable, allowing the number of agents to increase without any modifications to the code. Finally, we show that our model can be generalized as the algorithm can be directly used and performs equally as well on an industry standard simulator. Future experiments can be performed to improve the realism and complexity of the highway models and adapting the algorithm to real-world scenarios.

Road safety of elderly pedestrians in the urban context: an approach based on infrastructure and socioeconomic variables

The world generalized phenomenon of population ageing, caused by an increase in life expectancy, has led to a more elderly being actively part of mobility and road traffic. In developed countries, like Spain, fatalities and severe injuries among elderly pedestrians in the urban context are a matter of concern since, in the last decades, the fatal accident risk for elderly pedestrians is rising. Although there is an extensive literature on the decline of driving and pedestrian skills in the elderly, few research has been devoted to the impact of the street type and socioeconomic factors per urban district on this type of collisions.The road safety analysis of pedestrians´ collisions is complex due to the diversity of the features, the dispersion of the data and the lack of infrastructure information associated to the accident location at official databases. The main target of this paper is the identification of the basic socioeconomic and infrastructure factors that contribute to elder pedestrian accident at urban level, taking the administrative units (districts) as territorial accident location. Madrid is the capital of one of the most rapidly ageing nations in the world, and was selected as case study because it also has a high proportion of elderly residents (19%). The Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT) provided for this study the database (2006-2018) on accident statistics. The crashes involving an elderly person in Madrid were filtered to elaborate an ad-hoc data base. The study methodology was based on a negative binomial model to test the accident occurrence at district level. Results revealed the clear influence of the district population variables (density and total inhabitants) together with the activity centres associated to the elderly mobility, followed by the ageing rate and the road length per district.

Model system dynamics potential impact of disasters due to the re-period of the October 25th, 2010 earthquake in the Mentawai Islands

Geographically, the Mentawai Islands Regency has a territorial boundary with the sea. The north side is the Siberut Strait, the south side is bordered by the Indian Ocean, the east side is bordered by the Mentawai Strait, and the west side is bordered by the Indian Ocean. The Mentawai Islands Regency area has a high level of seismicity which makes it prone to earthquakes and tsunamis because it has an earthquake return period. Population and economic growth in the Mentawai Islands Regency continue to increase, resulting in a higher level of threat due to earthquakes and tsunamis to people and buildings. By using earthquake return period modeling based on secondary data and population and building growth modeling using system dynamics, Pentahelix can implement disaster risk mitigation in the Mentawai Islands Regency to reduce the risk of casualties and material losses. Based on the prediction that the Mentawai earthquake return period on October 25, 2010, will occur for 24 years to 57 years or around 2034 to 2067, and the results of system dynamics modeling with Powersim Studio 10 software, the number of vulnerable people affected is 24,764 people up to 42,944 people and potential losses. housing sector between 144.73 billion to 250.98 billion.

Field test and probabilistic analysis of irregular steel debris casualty risks from a person-borne improvised explosive device

Person-borne improvised explosive devices (PBIEDs) are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries. This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard. An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour, including positions, velocity, and trajectory angles. These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis. In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed. Based on the results presented, many practical conclusions can be drawn, for instance, regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.

Examining Prominent Causes of Traffic Injury Severity in Louisiana with Multinomial Logistic Models

Accidents rank third among the top 10 leading causes of death in Louisiana, claiming more than 2,000 lives out of a total of almost 33,000 deaths. Drivers’ characteristics (age and gender), the geometry of the roadways, driving on the major roadways, the day of the week, and the wet or dry condition or the road have been associated with crash severity. This study applies unordered multinomial logistic models to investigate causes leading to crash severity in Louisiana. Several models were estimated and the best results were retained for presentation and discussion. Consistent with previous research, findings suggest that drivers’ gender and age matter for traffic safety. Individually, male and older drivers are too risky. Major roads, weekdays, dry surfaces, and road geometry increase the risk of fatal accidents. Male drivers are prone to severe and fatal accidents while old drivers are vulnerable to all types of accidents. Young drivers and female drivers feature among cases of injury and moderate accidents. Evidence suggests that crash severity is not ethnicity specific, contrary to some studies. This study is relevant because it builds a new dataset for safety research, identifies risk factors, and informs the aim of public safety policy to reduce loss of life, injuries, and costs resulting from motor vehicle accidents.

DETERMINANTS OF ACCIDENT IN THE MINES: A RETROSPECTIVE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MINING ACCIDENTS IN GHANA

The mining industry continues to be an important sector of the Ghanaian economy, contributing to the foreign exchange, employment and socioeconomic development after the colonial period. The current trend of mining operations requires greater skills and technical knowledge because they involve sophisticated machines, dangerous chemicals and explosive mechanisms, underground operations etc. Accidents in the mines just like any occupational accident may lead to deaths, injuries, disabilities and financial losses. One of the ways of improving occupational knowledge and skills is to acquire some level of understanding of accident causation mechanism. An analytical technique which will form the basis for accident and injury epidemiological studies is therefore necessary to ensure operational safety improvement. A retrospective statistical analysis of accidents in eight gold mining companies was undertaken through measures of association, hypothesis testing, trend analysis and predictive measurements. The results of the study indicate that 20% of accident cases resulted in deaths, 30% were serious and 50% minor accidents. Underground mining increases the risk fatal accident by 1.46, morning shift increases the risk of fatal accident by 4.81 and being a contract miner increases the risk of fatal accident by 1.05. The part of body injured can predict the degree of injury by reducing the error of prediction by 40.2%. Since proportion of accident fatalities increases with increasing age of miners, it is recommended that miners with higher age should not be task with high risk jobs. It is recommended again that, miners should be given improved protective clothes to guide against occurrences of fatal incidents. Especially, clothes to cover the head and upper part of the body since they top the fatality chart and the fact that fatality is strongly associated with body part.
 
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Factors influencing casualty risk in the 14th November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand earthquake

The November 14, 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake was one of the largest earthquakes to occur in New Zealand in the past 100 years and resulted in two deaths and 618 injuries. Understanding the context and cause of casualties from earthquakes is important for informing risk reduction activities such as building codes, education of protective actions, and casualty modelling. Data on casualties (deaths and injuries) from the Kaikōura earthquake were sourced from New Zealand's publicly funded accidental injury insurance scheme. Casualties were compared to a control group of uninjured people using a case-control design. Odds ratios were calculated through multivariate logistic regression to quantify the influence of individual, seismological and contextual factors on casualty risk. Females were twice as likely to be injured than males, and injury risk increased 30% with every 10 year increase in age. People were 2.9 times more likely to be injured if they were in non-residential buildings, and injury risk increased 2.2 times for every unit increase in MMI shaking intensity. Thirty-seven percent of casualties were from falls, 44% were from actions of people during shaking and 8% were due to being hit by contents. Nine percent of people were injured after shaking stopped during evacuations, or clean-up. The results indicate that in regions with a well-regulated building industry with modern building codes such as New Zealand, casualties are dominated by non-fatal injuries, and the number of these injuries are determined by the behaviour of individuals during and immediately following earthquake shaking.

Early intervention mechanism for preventing electrocution in construction engineering.

The aim of this study is to establish an effective early intervention mechanism for construction engineering to prevent electrocution while improving labor safety and reducing the casualty risk. This study used narrative text analysis and the Haddon Matrix for data collection, and analyzed the causes from the 113 electrocution deaths among in the construction industry, the exhaustive chi-square automatic interaction detector algorithm was employed the segmentation of the correlations. Based on the theory of inventive problem solving, through IDEF0 (ICAM DEFinition) for function modeling was designed the early intervention mechanism. This study revealed the operating features related to electric shock hazards. Early intervention was introduced to reduce the relevant risks and establish safety mechanisms. The first contribution of this study is the determination of hazard correlations between operating features and conductive media, and entry point for the prevention of electrocutions. The second contribution is the suggestion of the establishment of inspection stations for electric tools, thereby ensuring that the portable power tools are safe. The final contribution is the joint application of TRIZ (Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadatch) and IDEF0, which establishing the pre-entry testing, strengthening safety mechanisms.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PRECAST CONCRETE FLOOR SLAB WITH CAST IN SITU AND STRUCTURE STABILITY OF GKB UPN "VETERAN" EAST JAVA


 
 
 
 Gedung Kuliah Bersama was modified into ten floors, constructed using precast pretension slabs, namely hollow core slabs on the second to five floors and cast in situ slabs, namely steel deck on floors six to ten. Gedung Kuliah Bersama is located at the UPN “Veteran” East Java in the city of Surabaya. Geologically and tectonically, Surabaya City is in an active fault zone, so that the tectonic activity that occurs can cause damage to building structures and construction materials. Pushover analysis is an analysis that can be used to determine the pattern of structural collapse when an earthquake occurs. Based on the results of the analysis, precast pretension slabs (hollow core slabs) with segments of 1500 mm × 7000 mm × 150 mm with PC Wire reinforcement ϕ7-121 mm and cast in situ (steel deck) slabs with a thickness of 120 mm with wiremesh reinforcement M8-150 mm. The difference in the bending strength of the two types of slabs is 38.73%. The results of the pushover analysis show that the structural performance at the Damage Control (DO) level shows that the building is able to withstand the earthquake that occurs and the risk of casualties is very small.
 
 
 

When Is It Democratic to Postpone an Election? Elections During Natural Disasters, COVID-19, and Emergency Situations

Holding regular elections is an essential feature of democratic practices. The case for postponing elections is often made during emergency situations, however. Despite the critical nature of the i...

Builder perception on the implementation of earthquake resistant non-engineered house construction practice in Padang City

Disaster preparedness from the builder is crucial due to the increase of earthquake vulnerability in Padang City. To ensure that the house is built following the concept of an earthquake-resistant non-engineered house must be followed in building the house to secure and minimizes the risk of casualties and losses caused by the earthquake. Previous experience shows that technical factors are not enough to increase the awareness of the builders. It requires non-technical factors that may play a significant role in disaster reduction in the community. That is why this study intends to identify builder perception about indicators of earthquake-resistant non-engineered house development and its implementation in the field. Questionnaires are used to gather the data to 30 housing projects in Padang City. In general, all statements about the concept of earthquake-resistant houses are strongly considered by the builders. However, it does not implement in the field run smoothly. Many construction practices found did not meet the principles. Government and stakeholder participation are needed to enhance the competency and knowledge of the homeowners and builders.

Influence of Time and Space Analysis of Marine Economy on Catastrophe Insurance Risk Assessment

Yang, W., 2020. Influence of time and space analysis of marine economy on catastrophe insurance risk assessment. In: Bai, X. and Zhou, H. (eds.), Advances in Water Resources, Environmental Protection, and Sustainable Development. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 115, pp. 583-586. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Catastrophe insurance is the risk of huge property loss and serious casualties caused by natural disasters. Through catastrophe insurance system, risks can be dispersed. Catastrophe is characterized by a low frequency of occurrence. But once it happens, its impact is generally beyond people's expectations. Among them, maritime catastrophe is the highest risk. Therefore, it is necessary to make early warning and assessment on the risk of marine catastrophe insurance. In the traditional methods of early warning and estimation, due to the divergence of the characteristic parameters of the model, the estimation of the influence of the parameters caused by the economic characteristics is insufficient. So the accuracy of the model is low. In this paper, the maritime catastrophe risk is pre-warning and assessment by using the spatial-temporal characteristics of marine economy. The model integrates support vector machine and neural network algorithm, and can deeply mine the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of marine economy. Therefore, the risk assessment model of catastrophe insurance has been optimized. The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper can improve the risk assessment accuracy of catastrophe insurance, and has a certain reference value for the risk early warning of catastrophe insurance.

Drag-enhancing deorbit devices for spacecraft self-disposal: A review of progress and opportunities

Attention to the need to deorbit spacecraft at end-of-life will only intensify as space-faring nations grapple with the problems of increasingly crowded orbits. The use of drag devices for spacecraft self-disposal in low Earth orbit (LEO) merits review now. Drag-enhancing deorbit devices can be used to offset propellant reserved for deorbit operations and to extend mission life. Drag devices offer increased compliance with debris mitigation standards and can also offer other system-level advantages such as mass savings.We analyze the “trade-space” for spacecraft that are best suited to make use of this technology with specific examples. Our findings suggest that drag devices are well suited for both small and mid-sized LEO spacecraft. The suitability and feasibility of drag devices for small spacecraft (<200 kg) are proven and we review what has been achieved in this regard. Many mid-sized spacecraft are likely to burn-up during reentry and thus likely to meet the less-than-1-in-10,000 casualty risk requirement. We address recent progress in this area; showing that only moderate increases in cross-sectional area (~ tens of square meters) are necessary to apply this technology to mid-sized spacecraft to reduce the orbital lifetime below the prescribed 25-year limit. Drag devices with such areas have been demonstrated, albeit not on mid-size spacecraft. We address design guidelines to improve the attractiveness of drag devices for the larger classes of spacecraft, along with developmental and research opportunities to expand the technology beyond the demonstration phase.

Containment methods for the atmospheric reentry of satellites

Internationally accepted guidelines and standards limit the casualty risk related to each atmospheric reentry to 1:10,000. To avoid having to perform a controlled reentry at End-of-Life (EoL), it is possible to design missions such that they are compliant to reenter uncontrolled. This is called the Design for Demise (D4D) approach. Most activities in the field of D4D aim at maximising the exposure of components to the flow, or minimising the energy needed to ablate components. This is typically done by replacing undemisable materials by more demisable ones, or by using early break-up technologies.However, it may not always be possible or helpful to perform the aforementioned changes, especially for optical payloads which are at the core of their mission. Moreover, current formulas to estimate the casualty risk have the number of impacting fragments as the main driver, and largely neglect the kinetic energy at impact. Therefore, the ESA Clean Space initiative is studying novel methods to comply with guidelines, referred to as containment. This approach aims at keeping surviving fragments together, such that the probability of colliding with a person is reduced, often at the cost of having a higher impact energy.Different containment methods have been preliminarily identified: boxes to fully enclose and shield critical parts, nets to fully enclose and partially shield critical parts, tethers to connect critical parts, and undemisable joints between parts connected by design. The feasibility, potential and challenges of these methods are to be assessed, despite early simulations suggesting positive results. Additionally, the suitability of risk estimation formulas has been considered, as simulation results suggest that containment may lead to extreme kinetic energies at impact that are currently not accounted for.

1162 Financial Savings and Improved Outcomes from an Innovative, Integrated Sleep Apnea Management Program for a Safety Net Population: 5-Year Results

Abstract Introduction Sleep disorders are extremely common in the general population and are associated with an increased risk for fatal accidents, heart disease, stroke, neurocognitive decline, and diabetes. Sleep problems disproportionately affect socioeconomically disadvantaged and under resourced communities. We present here a 5-year analysis of a private-public partnership between a private sleep medicine practice (Redwood Pulmonary Medical Associates, RPMA) and county medical system (the Health Plan of San Mateo) to provide a coordinated, value-based sleep apnea program to adult residents of San Mateo County, CA. Methods Referring providers send referrals to a single location (RPMA), and sleep consultations, testing, follow-up care, and CPAP management occur out of the same location by a dedicated staff. Limited channel cardiopulmonary (CP) sleep testing initiated in the office and completed at home was done for most patients. Patients with AHI&amp;gt;5 plus daytime sleepiness were offered nasal CPAP, unlimited mask fittings, and compliance checks. Results 2101 CP tests were successfully completed (93.5%). There were 49.6% females and 50.4% males, with an average age of 51.6 years. 31% had severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and 59% were moderate or severe. 1471 (65%) of patients were given prescriptions for CPAP and 471 (32%) were still using CPAP at 5 years, 68.7% of whom were initiated within 3 years of the analysis. Of the patients returning satisfaction surveys, 97% would recommend the program to a relative or friend, and all respondents (99 to date) who were using CPAP felt it had benefitted their health overall. Comparing actual costs of the program to projected fee-for-service costs for the same services, the program saved the Health Plan of San Mateo $1,132,510, or 51.4%. Conclusion This program demonstrates the potential clinical and financial benefit of private-public partnerships in administering clinical programs to high risk populations, as private businesses can quickly adapt to new technologies, financial metrics, and standards of care. Support No outside financial support was provided

Using multi-scale spatial prioritization criteria to optimize non-natural mortality mitigation of target species

Non-natural mortality is a major threat to animal conservation worldwide. Its origins are extremely diverse and include infrastructures that cause animal casualties. Its effects are widely felt and so prioritization criteria are necessary when implementing mitigation actions. Most of the threats causing non-natural mortality have in common the fact that they are distributed unevenly across several spatial scales. Thus, here we present a protocol for prioritizing conservation measures in: (i) population fractions suffering from high levels of non-natural mortality whose demographic effects are the most serious, and in (ii) areas with the highest risk of casualties due to heterogeneities in both spatial use by individuals and the inherent hazards of the infrastructures causing mortality. To do so, the protocol consist of 5 steps: 1) to identify sink populations over large geographical areas; 2) to identify sink areas of high mortality within target populations; 3) to identify areas intensively used by individuals in target areas; 4) to identify spatial points or individual infrastructures showing high mortality risk; and 5) using direct evidence of casualties to complete information on high-risk sites and infrastructures. To show the potential of this protocol, we use as an example the mitigation of mortality due to electrocution in Bonelli’s eagle in SW Europe, where this species is of conservation concern. Thanks to the retrofitting of dangerous pylons, we demonstrate that our protocol can help restore Bonelli’s eagle territories to levels that will ensure the persistence of the studied population. In addition, we show that our criteria enhance the optimization of resource investment in mortality mitigation as our criteria identify the pylons with the most devastating effects on the population. To summarize, we provide the basis for a framework applicable to many different species and scenarios whose costs in terms of mitigation actions and benefits in terms of population viability prospects can be explicitly calculated.

Casualty risk of e-bike rider struck by passenger vehicle using China in-depth accident data

Objective: Traffic deaths involving e-bike (electric bike) riders are increasing in China. This study aims to quantitatively investigate the association between e-bike rider casualty and impact speed in electric bike-passenger vehicle collisions based on China in-depth accident study data.Methods: According to the collision location and driving direction of the e-bike and the vehicle, electric bike-passenger vehicle collisions are divided into five collision types: frontal collision, e-bike side collision, vehicle side collision, scrape collision and rear-end collision. Since e-bike side collision (the side of e-bike impacted with the front of vehicle) is the leading type and has the highest likelihood of severe or fatal injury in all collision types, e-bike side collisions are further selected to build the casualty risk functions of e-bike rider in relation to the rider age and the impact speed (vehicle impact speed and e-bike impact speed).Results: The analysis results show that, as for e-bike side collisions and e-bike impact speed is 20 km/h, the fatality risk of riders is approximately 2.9% at vehicle impact speed of 30 km/h, 23% at 50 km/h, 50% at 60 km/h, and 90% at 80 km/h. Rider age is also significantly associated with a higher risk of severe and fatality injury. The e-bike impact speed is not significantly associated with the severe and fatality risk in e-bike side collisions.Conclusions: The findings of this study provide meaningful insights to formulate effective policies especially for speed limit management to improve the safety of e-bikes.

Pyrotechnic approach to space debris destruction: From thermal modeling to hypersonic wind tunnel tests

The problem of the space debris is an important aspect of the on-ground casualty risk reduction. Some articles, like fuel tanks made of titanium alloy, survive during the atmospheric post-mission re-entry and impact the Earth's surface, thus posing a serious hazard. A pyrotechnic device is proposed to bring an additional heating of space debris at a certain altitude promoting its destruction and fragmentation into smaller parts during re-entry. 3D thermal modeling of the non-stationary thermal wave propagation through the system ‘pyrotechnic device - fuel tank wall’ has been performed alongside with extensive experimental testing. The pyrotechnic composition (namely, thermite), the design of the pyrotechnic device, the conjunction between the device, and the target plate surface were optimized during modeling. The first level of experimental verification included lab-tests with laser heating. At the second level, large-scale tests were conducted within the hypersonic wind tunnel to achieve the conditions closest to the atmospheric re-entry. The presented results reveal the usefulness of pyrotechnics for space applications; and the performed thermal engineering approach can be extended to materials other than titanium to decrease the on-ground casualty risk of space debris.

Attack When the World is Not Watching? International Media and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

To minimize political costs, policy makers may strategically time unpopular measures to coincide with other important events that distract the media and the public. We test this hypothesis in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Combining daily data on attacks by both sides with data on the content of news on top U.S. TV networks and on the occurrence of newsworthy events, we show that Israeli attacks are more likely to be carried out one day before U.S. news are expected to be dominated by important events. Strategic timing of Israeli attacks is only driven by newsworthy events that are predictable. It only applies to attacks executed with heavy weapons due to a higher risk of civilian casualties and to attacks that are less costly to move in time in contrast to targeted killings that are prohibitively costly to delay. Based on comprehensive content analysis of conflict-related news, we document that Israel's strategy is aimed at minimizing news coverage of its attacks on the following day because next-day news are especially charged with negative emotional content. We find no evidence of strategic timing for Palestinian attacks.

Fog Computing Architecture for Indoor Disaster Management

Most people spend their time indoors. Indoors have a higher complexity than outdoors. Moreover, today's building structures are increasingly sophisticated and complex, which can create problems when a disaster occurs in the room. Fire is one of the disasters that often occurs in a building. For that, we need disaster management that can minimize the risk of casualties. Disaster management with cloud computing has been extensively investigated in other studies. Traditional ways of centralizing data in the cloud are almost scalable as they cannot cater to many latency-critical IoT applications, and this results in too high network traffic when the number of objects and services increased. It will be especially problematic when in a disaster that requires a quick response. The Fog infrastructure is the beginning of the answer to such problems. This research started with an analysis of literature and hot topics related to fog computing and indoor disasters, which later became the basis for creating a fog computing-based architecture for indoor disasters. In this research, fog computing is used as the backbone in disaster management architecture in buildings. MQTT is used as a messaging protocol with the advantages of simplicity and speed. This research proposes a disaster architecture for indoor disasters, mainly fire disasters