Cash Flow Method Research Articles

FINANCING OF RESIDENTIAL ROOFTOP PHOTOVOLTAIC PROJECTS UNDER A NET METERING POLICY FRAMEWORK: THE CASE OF THE COLOMBIAN CARIBBEAN REGION

The inclusion of photovoltaic energy in the Colombian energy matrix has had several difficulties due to the lack of energy policies and regulations in renewable energy projects. The lack of government support with subsidies that extend the coverage of PV energy projects in residential areas has made the collection of funds more challenging. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis for the implementation of grid-connected photovoltaic projects on the roofs of residential areas, under the net metering policy framework. For the profitability analysis, the discounted cash flow (DCF) method was used. The revenues were obtained from the forecasts of the electrical power production of the PV system, based on the characteristics of the Colombian Caribbean Region. For this purpose, the meteorological data (2013-2017) of this region were used as an input for the calculation of the economic benefits that can be achieved with the implementation of PV systems. Based on the technical sizing and economic assumptions, it was proved that the DCF method allows to accurately determine the optimal debt ratio. After evaluating the three scenarios proposed, it was demonstrated that profitability and self-sustainability, with investment from creditors, is obtained from the implementation of PV systems of at least 3 kWp.

Evaluation of the introduction of a hydrogen supply chain using a conventional gas pipeline–A case study of the Qinghai–Shanghai hydrogen supply chain

A large-scale hydrogen supply chain is an alternative for the transportation of energy generated from a renewable energy source. Utilizing this technology would drastically improve the generation of clean energy. Therefore, an analysis method to estimate the economic and environmental benefits of the introduction of a hydrogen supply chain using an existing pipeline is developed. The proposed method first estimates the energy and exergy flows in the system to calculate the overall efficiency of these quantities. Afterward, the payback period is estimated based on the overall energy efficiency using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The overall efficiency of the system, based on the energy analysis presented, would seem to be the final delivered electrical, fuel and useable heat energy delivered to end use divided by the input solar and wind energy. Furthermore, the environmental effects due to the introduction of the systems are evaluated considering the reduction of global warming and air pollution gases, such as CO2 and PM2.5. The proposed analysis method was applied considering a natural gas pipeline that connects Qinghai and Shanghai. As a result, conversion ratios of 24.9% for electricity and 17.5% for heat were achieved, with the overall efficiency of the system of 42.4% based on the electricity obtained from photovoltaics. 3.02 Gt of CO2, 104 kt of SOx, and 134 kt of NOx, which represent 3.3%, 0.5%, and 0.6% of the annual discharge in China, respectively, and 8.66 kt of PM2.5 would be reduced every year. Furthermore, a reduction of 953 Mt in coal consumption is expected. The payback period of the proposed system using the DCF method is 4.17 and 2.28 years for the two alternatives evaluated in this work. The cash flow of the DCF is influenced by installation cost and operation cost of equipment.

Multi-Year High-Voltage Power System Planning Considering Active Power Curtailment

Integrating active power curtailment (APC) of renewable energy sources (RES) in power system planning reduces necessary investments in the power system infrastructure. In current target grid planning methods, APC is considered by fixed curtailment factors without considering the provided flexibility to its full extent. Time-series-based planning methods allow the integration of the time dependency of RES and loads in power system planning, leading to substantial cost savings compared to the worst-case method. In this paper, we present a multi-year planning strategy for high-voltage power system planning, considering APC as an alternative investment option to conventional planning measures. A decomposed approach is chosen to consider APC and conventional measures in a long-term planning horizon of several years. The optimal investment path is obtained with the discounted cash flow method. A case study is conducted for the SimBench high-voltage urban benchmark system. Results show that the time-series-based method allows for reducing investments by up to 84% in comparison to the worst-case method. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis shows the variation in total expenditures with changing cost assumptions.

Total Beta—Where Does It Fit in Valuation Theory

The valuation of any company by the discounted cash flow method is divided into two different tasks: forecasting cash flows and discounting these same cash flows using the appropriate discount rate. The latter requires a good understanding of the risks faced by the subject company's cash flows to be able to determine the appropriate risk premia to compensate a typical willing buyer and satisfy a typical willing seller. There is a high level of ambiguity and dispersion of opinions about how to quantify these risks especially when valuing closely held companies. To avoid dealing with the task of identifying and measuring components of the appropriate risk premia for the subject company, some practitioners have turned to a measure that, supposedly, lumps all risks together (which they term Total Beta) and purportedly then allows one to estimate a total cost of equity. The proponents of total beta believe that by using a “total risk” beta there is no need to consider size premia, lack of marketability premia or company specific risk premia. Critics of total beta argue that there is no theoretical basis for total beta as a measure of total risk. This paper argues for the camp of the critics of total beta because we believe it represents a major departure from finance theory and does not adjust the cost of capital correctly for Company Specific Risk. Then, we examine academic research to show that the two major arguments used by total beta proponents to discredit the existing model do not hold. We do not argue that the existing models are absolute truth. We recognize the limitation of the CAPM and/or Modified CAPM models and we admit their inability of answer all questions regarding the cost of equity. However, we believe that total beta is not a step in the right direction.

Providing a Framework for Testing the Reasonableness of Terminal Period Cash Flow Investments

Whether using the traditional Gordon Growth formula or the value driver formula, it is common for a valuer to neglect testing the reasonableness of the capitalized free cash flow used in determining the terminal value and, therefore, derive a terminal value that is incorrect. This is troubling considering how important the terminal value is when concluding an equity value; the terminal value most often accounts for a majority of the concluded enterprise value when applying the Discounted Cash Flow method. The purpose of this article is to provide a framework for testing the reasonableness of the amount of terminal cash flow that is reinvested to support the operations into perpetuity. In general, there are three potential areas for a company to reinvest into its future operations: (1) net working capital, (2) purchases of property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), and (3) other investments (e.g., research and development [R&D]). Our article provides an overview of a suggested method for analyzing and calculating the appropriate amount of investments in net working capital and PP&E under the Gordon Growth formula. We also provide an example analysis to illustrate potential issues resulting from expensed investments (e.g., R&D) when applying the value driver formula.

From point through density valuation to individual risk assessment in the discounted cash flows method

AbstractWe review the developments and practice of the discounted cash‐flow method in finance with an intermediate goal of presenting parsimonious methods of generating density valuation rather than point forecasts. Our ultimate aim is to select, propose and discuss some density‐based risk measures that may be used by appraisers and investment analysts when conducting discounted cash‐flow valuation for broad group of heterogeneous (by risk appetite) final users or investors. Such a toolbox may be applied directly by the latter group without necessity to rely on aggregated point valuations and recommendations.

On the Differential Analysis of Enterprise Valuation Methods as a Guideline for Unlisted Companies Assessment (I): Empowering Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method is probably the most extended approach used in company valuation, its main drawbacks being probably the known extreme sensitivity to key variables such as Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimations not unquestionably obtained. In this paper we propose an unbiased and systematic DCF method which allows us to value private equity by leveraging on stock markets evidences, based on a twofold approach: First, the use of the inverse method assesses the existence of a coherent WACC that positively compares with market observations; second, different FCF forecasting methods are benchmarked and shown to correspond with actual valuations. We use financial historical data including 42 companies in five sectors, extracted from Eikon-Reuters. Our results show that WACC and FCF forecasting are not coherent with market expectations along time, with sectors, or with market regions, when only historical and endogenous variables are taken into account. The best estimates are found when exogenous variables, operational normalization of input space, and data-driven linear techniques are considered (Root Mean Square Error of 6.51). Our method suggests that FCFs and their positive alignment with Market Capitalization and the subordinate enterprise value are the most influencing variables. The fine-tuning of the methods presented here, along with an exhaustive analysis using nonlinear machine-learning techniques, are developed and discussed in the companion paper.

A Real Options Approach to Valuate Solar Energy Investment with Public Authority Incentives: The Italian Case

Solar energy investment represents currently a valid reason to support sustainable economic development. In fact, over the last few years, governments have applied different measures to incentivize private consumers and firms to use renewable energies. Photovoltaic (PV) projects are characterized by uncertainty due to meteorological conditions, the unpredictable behavior of government, and managerial flexibility. Since the Net Present Value (NPV) approach is not able to capture these uncertain factors, it was replaced with the Real Options Approach (ROA). The latter method manages to embed flexibility in PV investment using binomial trees. This paper valuates PV investment in all regional areas in Italy using an integrated approach between the discounted cash flows method and real option value, called Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV). We fit the probability of tax benefits into a binomial lattice model after analyzing the geographical position and weather conditions of all regional capitals of Italy. The results show that the cities with high irradiance/temperature have positive NPV and high investment values. On the other hand, while most cities have negative NPV, the inclusion of the flexibility in investment decisions gives additional value to the project, making the ENPV positive and implying an attractive investment opportunity with the possibility of delaying the project. We also propose a sensitivity analysis that shows how the real option value changes when incentive policies of the government become more attractive. This paper contributes to the existing literature in the way of considering financial, meteorological/geographical, and political factors to valuate PV investment.

Financial Effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Nonindustrial Private Forest Landowners: A Comparative Study for 10 Southern States of the United States

Abstract Changes in tax codes applicable to timberland investments can affect tax treatment of timber revenues and expenses. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is regarded as the most expansive overhaul of tax codes in the United States since 1986; however, our understanding of its effects on timberland investments for family forest owners has yet to be explored. Using the discounted cash-flow method, we estimated and compared effects of TCJA on land expectation value (LEV) and net tax from managing timberland for two classifications of median-income family forest owners in 10 southern states. Results showed a decrease in LEV and net tax for both material participants and investors, with a greater effect on landowners managing timberland as investments. Thus, owning timberland can become less beneficial under the current law for median-income family forest landowners. Study Implications: Family forests occupy a large portion of the total forest area in the United States and provide various goods and services to society. Taxes and tax policies are regarded as important issues for these landowners because policies could ultimately influence timberland investment, ownership structure, and management activities. After the 2017 tax reform, landowners became concerned about the effect of the new act on profitability and financial return from timberland investment. Here, we attempt to provide a better understanding of tax effects by estimating change in net benefit of owning and managing timberland under the current law compared with the previous law in 10 southern states. For policymakers, this study can provide insight into the importance of considering unique characteristics of timberland investment during the tax policy design and evaluation process. For landowners, this study can facilitate the timberland investment decisionmaking process and serve as a guide to the effects of the new tax rules on returns.

Determination of Business Port Terminal Value Using Income Approach

Under PT X’s long-term plan to increase the company’s value, PT X plans to acquire one of PT Y’s container terminal business units. The acquisition requires several stages of the process from due diligence to estimation of the acquisition value obtained from the valuation results. Business valuation as a critical stage is a process to produce an opinion or an estimate of the fair value of a company. The results of the business appraisal can then be used in investment \\ decision making, generally for business development, mergers, and acquisitions. There are 3 (three) approaches in conducting business valuation, namely asset-based approach, market-based approach, and income-based approach. This research will focus on the company’s acquisition plan using income approach (income-based approach). This approach is used by considering the going concern assumption, or the business that is being assessed will continue to run and generate revenue. Two methods can be used to determine the value of a business in income approach (Income-based approach), namely the method of income capitalization (capitalized of income method) and discounted cash flow method (discounted cash flow). This study aims to determine the business value of PT Y’s container terminal business unit and the maximum acquisition value used as a consideration in the acquisition. This research uses an income-based approach with a discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The making of financial models begins with making a profit and loss terminal container service projection, then the free cash flow calculation is performed. Furthermore, based on the free cash flow that has been calculated with a discount rate from the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) which provides the total value of all company capital, the company value that represents the value of the container terminal unit is Rp. 9,171,633,437,067. To find out the maximum acquisition value obtained by calculating the company’s return on investment that refers to the cost of capital of PT X. To get a positive rate of return, the IRR value must be greater than the WACC. Under the calculations, the maximum acquisition price of Rp. 7,500,000,000,000 (IRR 9.66%) with a WACC value of PT X of 7.6%. The results of this calculation become material in the acquisition process with PT Y as the owner of the container terminal.

Analysis of IP Valuation on Technology Food Processing as Strategy Business in New Product Development

<p class="Abstract"><em>Valuation IP of IDS000001555 analysed the economic impact and to measure the financial benefits of the asset if implemented in a business. This patent is about technology that used to produce of Mangosteen peel nano-tea. This technology is to product nano particle with ball-mill method. This research used qualitative and quantitative methods with description analysis. By using the qualitative method, this research focused on scoring of the IP in a several aspects, while the quantitative method conducted by income approach used the Discounted Cash Flow method. The qualitative method showed the technology IDS000001555 had a high opportunity and low risk value. This patent also has the best marketing strategy by a licensing agreement. However, the quantitative method showed the technology IDS000001555 had 6.1% for royalty rate with value of NPV (Net Present Value) Rp 605,227,434. It was estimated that this patent will generate the turnover of about Rp 617,000,000 for 10 years of useful economic life.</em></p><p><em>Keywords: valuation IP, economic impact, qualitative and quantitative methods, royalty rate, turnover</em></p><p class="Abstract"><br /><br /></p>

REAL OPTION ANALYSIS OF VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS

Venture capital investments play an important role in the development and growth of start-up companies that are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and growth potential, and venture capital is also one of the major sources of financing for entrepreneurial businesses. In the case of venture capital investment, staging has a huge potential, so the venture capitalists keep the right to participate in further financing rounds. The real option approach as an evaluation method provides an opportunity to evaluate this kind of investment with the help of flexibility in the case of a high degree of uncertainty. The paper puts the emphasis on the evaluation and the effectiveness of venture capital investments primarily from the aspect of real option theory tested on Hungarian venture capital cases. The paper concludes that the option-based valuation methods are more suitable for evaluating venture capital investments than others, especially the discounted cash flow method.

Economic viability of a monitoring system in mechanized citrus production

Digital agriculture is currently the main technological paradigm in agribusiness, in which one of the main challenges is the convergence of new monitoring technologies with the management of the volume of infor­mation generated to increase productivity. This research analyzes the economic viability of a monitoring system deployed on eight tractors and two trucks used for spraying operations in a citrus farm. The opera­tions covered an area of 2,236 ha and were performed during the 2016/2017 harvest. The economic results of the investment were examined using the discounted cash flow method associated with the Monte Carlo simulation. The monitoring system provided greater availability and quality of information, which improved the quality of operations management. The results pointed to 23.67% lower costs per hectare in monitored compared to unmonitored areas. Economic analysis demonstrated the viability of the investment with 99.5% confidence, whose gain in Net Present Value per machine represents 15% of the machine acquisition cost. The results of this study are pioneering for mechanized citrus operations and denote the importance of in­vestments in automated digital monitoring systems that allow better monitoring of management activities in orange production.

Discounted Cash Flow Methods in Lease versus Purchase Analysis—A Technical Note

The earlier framework uses the before-tax cost of debt as the discount rate in valuation of lease contracts for the reason that such framework explicitly includes the interest tax credits as a component of each period’s cash flows. The short-cut or modern standard textbook approaches use after-tax cost of debt as the discount rate for the reason that it ignores the interest tax credits. Some existing literatures state the two approaches are equivalent without exploring the reasons analytically. This note provides a mathematical demonstration showing, the two approaches are not equivalent accompanied by numerical examples.

VALUATION BUSINESS IN PEER TO PEER LENDING WITH DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) METHOD

Start-up companies are businesses that are now very popular in Indonesia. To support the business moving fast, these businesses need investors by offering the company's fair value. With similar but not the same calculation, in which start-up companies have different financial indicators and financial assumptions with conventional companies, in this case, the valuation is included innovation value and disruption probability. This research is a descriptive study which is based on case studies in the research object. The object of research is PT ABC, a company engaged in the field of Financial Technology. Data collection is done by collecting secondary data from the company and observation during the internship. The analysis is done by conducting a sensitivity analysis with the DCF method using Microsoft Excel. Valuation is also very closely related to Financial Projection to predict the state of the industry pear to pear landing in the future. The data shows that the enterprise value is Rp. 46,084,735,403,742. Then, EV/Revenue is 1,748 times, and the percentage of raise is 100%. According to DCF Valuation, the author suggests investors invest in the company. Because the valuation is very good.

Synergy evaluation in mergers and acquisitions

This paper analyzes the M&A deal of Rostelecom and Tele2 Russia in order to evaluate the synergy effect as a result of consolidation. Discounted cash flow method is applied to determine the companies’ enterprise values. As a result of the research, synergy is equal 38 003 million rubles and the M&A deal is recognized as an effective one.

Study on the Valuation Method for Overseas Oil and Gas Extraction Based on the Modified Trinomial Tree Option Pricing Model

Wandering of oil prices at lower values and the bitter reality have forced people to look for a more accurate valuation method for overseas oil and gas extraction of China. However, the currently available resource classification method, discount cash flow (DCF) method, and real option method all suffer from their own disadvantages. This paper identifies multiple uncertainty factors such as oil prices and reserves. It then investigates the transmission mechanism of how each uncertainty factor impacts the oil and gas extraction value and quantifies the transmission efficiency. The probability distribution patterns of each uncertainty factor have been determined; the trinomial tree option pricing model is modified, with consideration upon the nonstandardness of the probability distribution. Decision points and strategies space are designed in accordance with the practical oil and gas production; and the Bermuda option is adopted to replace the conventional decision-based tree model with the probability-based tree. Finally, a backward algorithm is developed to calculate the probability at each decision point, which avoids difficulties in determining the asset volatility ratio; and a case study is presented to demonstrate application of the proposed method. Results show that decision rights for overseas investment are valuable. The value of extraction does not yet necessarily grow with higher uncertainty, and instead, it is under joint effects of the cash flow and strategy space. So, valuation should incorporate the composite value of future cash flow and decision rights. Volatility of the value of extraction is not solely dependent on the oil price, but affected by multiple factors. Similar to the Bermuda option, the decision-making behavior for oil and gas extraction occurs only at finite decision points, to which the trinomial tree option pricing model is applicable. The adoption of probability distribution can to a great extent exploit the uncertain information. Replacement of the decision-based tree with the probability-based tree provides more accurate probability distribution of the calculated value of extraction, and moreover the disperse degree of the probability can reflect how high risks are, which is conducive to decision-making for investment.

Correct accounting of risks in assessing the effectiveness of investment projects of metallurgical companies

This article proposes the methodology that modifies the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The proposed methodology allows for separate accounting of risks of the first and second kind and, accordingly, to correctly reflect them in the calculations using the discounted cash flow method. This makes it possible to adequately assess the effectiveness of investment projects and make informed management decisions.

Towards mine tailings valorization: Recovery of critical materials from Chilean mine tailings

The mining industry produces large volumes of mine tailings – a mix of crushed rocks and process effluents from the processing of mineral ores. Mine tailings are a major environmental issue due to implications related to their handling and storage. Depending on the mined ore and the process used, it may be possible to recover valuable elements from mine tailings, among them critical raw materials (CRMs) like rare earths, vanadium, and antimony.The aim of this study was to investigate the techno-economic feasibility of producing critical raw materials from mine tailings. Data from 477 Chilean tailings facilities were analyzed and used in the techno-economic assessment of the valorization of mine tailings in the form of CRMs recovery. A review of applicable technologies was performed to identify suitable technologies for mine tailings processing. To assess the economic feasibility of CRMs production, net present value (NPV) was calculated using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Sensitivity analysis and design of experiments were performed to analyze the influence of independent variables on NPV. Two options were assessed, rare earth oxides (REOs) production and vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) production. The results show that it is possible to produce V2O5 with an NPV of 76 million US$. In the case of REOs, NPV is positive but rather low, which indicates that the investment is risky. Sensitivity analysis and the ANOVA run using the design of experiments indicated that the NPV of REOs is highly sensitive to the price of REOs and to the discount rate.

Company Valuation of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara TBK

More than decades, Indonesia’s economic growth depend on the oil and gas sector. In the past few years, oil and gas sector’s contribution to the state revenue decreased significantly along with the decline in reserves and production. The state revenue from the oil and gas industry decreased by almost 80 percent from Rp216 trillion in 2014 or 14 percent of state revenue to Rp44 trillion in 2016 or 2.8 percent of the state revenue. Perusahaan Gas Negara or also called as PGN is the largest national company in the natural gas transportation and distribution sector. In or der to make the business growing wider, PGN are going to acquiring Pertamina Gas or Pertagas. The acquisition is part of the establishment of the holding company in energy sector by the Ministry of State Own Enterprises, which was established on April 11, 2018. This research is made to know how the intrinsic value per share of Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) through calculating it with the discounted cash flow method using free cash flow to the firm. The data are obtained from PGN’s financial report from 2013 to 2018. The result is the intrinsic value per share of Perusahaan Gas Negara is IDR Rp6,757.72.
 Keywords: discounted cash flow, free cash flow to the firm, valuation.