Cash Flow Components Research Articles

Predicting Individual Corporate Bond Returns

This paper finds positive evidence of return predictability and investment gains for individual corporate bonds for an extended period from 1973 to 2017. Our sample consists of both public and private company bond observations. We have implemented multiple machine learning methods and designed a Fama-Macbeth-type predictive performance evaluation. In addition to robust predictability evidence, there are four main findings. First of all, we find the lagged corporate bond market return as the most important predictor, suggesting a short-term market reversal story. Second, this paper concludes that equity information is conditionally redundant for similar public and private company bond performance. Third, a model-forecast-implied long-short strategy delivers 1.48% monthly returns and 1.4% alpha during the last two decades, which substantially drops if we do not consider private company bonds. Finally, the return predictability is mainly due to the cash flow component instead of the discount rate component.

When Is Depreciation Meaningful in Valuation? Changing Valuation Weights for U.S. REITs and Non-REITs

This article regresses the market value of equity on pre-depreciation income and on depreciation expense for capital-intensive firms, referring to the coefficients from our model as valuation weights. The valuation weight on depreciation expense versus the weight on pre-depreciation income are compared, to detect depreciation biases, over time and across sectors. Our model shows that the valuation weights on depreciation expense change over time, if the persistence of the cash flow components of net income varies over time and if the accrual for depreciation is inflexible (e.g., straight-line depreciation). For Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), we find the valuation weight on pre-depreciation income increases with industry upturns, while the valuation weight on depreciation expense decreases during upturns. This result is contrasted to the nearly equal valuation weights for the cash flow and depreciation components of earnings for Resource firms (e.g., mines) over time. We conjecture this is because depletion accounting flexibly allows for “depreciation” to exhibit less bias than in other sectors. In summary, actual depreciation practices influence time variation in the valuation of depreciation, a point which has been underappreciated in prior studies.

Research of reserves for increasing profitability of construction enterprises

The article analyzes the trends of financial results of construction companies during 2010 - 2019 by studying the slope of the trend line in the periods before and after 2014. The configuration features and the parameters of the equations of trend dependences of the share of profitable enterprises by type of construction activity. For the slope coefficients of the trend equations, a cluster analysis was performed using the C-means method, and the reliability of the results of the obtained cluster partitioning was proved. The criteria for restoring the profitability of the construction industry are substantiated, which are based on the results of a cluster analysis of the share growth of profitable enterprises in terms of the main areas of construction activity. Authors conducted a study of the segment of consumers that use services of small construction enterprises, represented by urban households. The results of it allowed, first, to structure potential consumers of services for overhaul and construction depending on their resources, and secondly, to quantify the impact of key components of cash flow and current consumer cost on purchasing power of the analyzed segment, thirdly, to establish reserves to increase the income of contractors in the segment and the possibility of reducing them. By constructing and analyzing the configuration of the distribution curve of expenditures on capital repairs and construction of urban households, its inconsistency with the conditions of the Pareto rule was established: instead of 20:80, about 20% of income in the construction market segment is provided by 47% of the poorest households. The other part, almost 80%, is formed by 53% of households with higher incomes. The threshold value of household income per 1 person is substantiated, failure to achieve which leads to savings in costs for repair and construction services. Its value is 6,000 UAH / month in 2019 prices.

The Bond, Equity, and Real Estate Term Structures

We construct a Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) that prices bond, equity, and real estate portfolios sorted on cash flow duration. Using this SDF and the dynamics of cash flow yields in these three asset classes, we estimate the bond, equity, and real estate term structures monthly from 1974 to 2019. We find that while (nominally) safe and risky cash flows have risk premia term structures that are upward sloping on average and move together over time, the term structure dynamics are fundamentally different after we remove the safe component of the risky cash flows. Specifically, equity and real estate maturity-matched risk premia, on average, increase over short maturities but decline over long maturities. Moreover, their term structures comove positively with each other but negatively with the bond term structure.

Cash Flow News and Stock Price Dynamics

ABSTRACTWe develop a new approach to modeling dynamics in cash flows extracted from daily firm‐level dividend announcements. We decompose daily cash flow news into a persistent component, jumps, and temporary shocks. Empirically, we find that the persistent cash flow component is a highly significant predictor of future growth in dividends and consumption. Using a log‐linearized present value model, we show that news about the persistent dividend growth component predicts stock returns consistent with asset pricing constraints implied by this model. News about the daily dividend growth process also helps explain concurrent return volatility and the probability of jumps in stock returns.

Pengaruh persistensi laba, free cash flow dan komponen-komponen akrual terhadap arus kas dari aktivitas operasi masa depan

Purpose: This study aims to find empirical evidence of the influence of variables consisting of earnings persistence, free cash flow and accrual components of cash flows on operating activities in the future. Research methodology: The objects used in this study were manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for 5 years (2013-2017). The study population consisted of 135 manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The sample selection technique used was purposive sampling, and the sample was 100 companies. Data were analyzed using the EVIEWS 9 program with the panel data regression analysis type. Results: The study finds that earnings persistence, free cash flow and accrual components of changes in account payable partially have a positive effect on cash flows from future operating activities, while the accrual component of changes in trade receivables and the accrual component of inventory changes partially do not have influence on cash flow from operating activities. Limitations: The limitation of this study was that manufacturing companies do not cover all company sectors listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. In addition to the data used in the study, only 5 years of annual financial reports were reported by each company to the Indonesia Stock Exchange Contribution: This research can be used by stakeholders, especially investors and creditors to assess the future prospects of a company through variables that have been tested which can affect cash flow from the future production activities by the company. Keywords: Cash flow from operating activities, Earnings persistence, Free cash flow, Accrual components

The Effects of Financial Derivatives on Earnings Management and Market Mispricing

This study aims to examine the effects of financial derivatives on earnings management and market mispricing. A cross-country analysis was applied within the scope of four ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries that comply with IAS 39, consisting of the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. A sample of 1,395 firm-years of companies using financial derivatives were engaged for study and the evidence shows that the use of financial derivatives for hedging purposes decreases the magnitude of the earnings management. In addition, this study also supports the idea that earnings expectations embedded in the stock returns of companies using financial derivatives, that meet the hedge accounting criteria, reflect the difference in the persistence of cash flow components more accurately than those using financial derivatives for speculative purposes.

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STABILITY OF COMPANIES WITH THE USE OF IMITATION MODELING OF CASH FLOWS

Most modern methods of retrospective assessment of financial stability of companies have significant internal contradictions that hinder their productive use in the process of scientific research and practical activities of economic entities. A coefficient analysis of the financial condition is accompanied by difficulty in determining the normative values of indicators that would take into account the industry and individual characteristics of the organization. The use of regression analysis requires a significant array of historical data and the selection of key indicators that do not have a high level of correlation. According to the authors, the forecasting of cash flows using simulation methods has a significant potential for predicting financial stability. The empirical basis of the study was formed by indicators of cash flow budgets, information presented in annual reports, and also published in the media by one of the largest petrochemical companies in the Russian Federation in retrospect from 2011 to 2018. The tools of simulation modeling assumed the use of a uniform distribution law of a random variable, the justification of the boundaries of the change in the initial variables with a confidence level of 95% was based on the provisions of the VaR method. The conceptual basis of the simulation model was determined by an algorithm for formalizing the dependence of the components of cash flows on current financial and investment activities with a resulting indicator, which was played by the free cash balance at the end of the forecast period. According to the authors, improving the quality of the meaningful interpretation of the results implies an independent statistical evaluation and visual presentation of the results of experiments that demonstrated a positive and negative level of effectiveness of financial and economic activities

The effect of earning information, cash flow components, and financing decision on stock returns: empirical evidence on Indonesia stock exchange

Trading, Service, and Investment sectors show an essential role in the national economy, and they have grown significantly during the past years. They have created many job opportunities in both the formal sector and the non-formal sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of net profit, operating cash flow, financing cash flow and investing cash flow and, financing decisions on stock’s return of service industry listed at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The analysis was done using the data panel regression. It shows that earning information, operating cash flow, financing cash flow positively affect stock returns. However, investing cash flow and financing decisions (proxy leverage) show a negative effect on the stock's return significantly. Simultaneously, the variables above affect stock return significantly. The implication is that management should pay more attention to financial factors, especially net profit, cash flow, and leverage to increase stock return and the company’s value.

Foreign Monitoring and Predictability of Future Cash Flow

A company’s sustainability is generally determined by whether it is able to create a positive long-term cash flow. This paper investigates whether the predictive ability of cash flows and earnings in forecasting future cash flows differs depending on the foreign investors’ ownership. Based on firms listed in the Korea Stock Exchange market from 2000 to 2017, we find that earnings and cash flow components of financial statements enhance the predictability of future cash flow in the Korean stock market. Conversely, foreign investors showed a tendency to decide on investments based on operating cash flow instead of earnings when predicting future cash flow. These findings indicate that reliability towards earnings may fall since foreign investors’ concerns are on the prospects of earnings management. These results were strengthened by the addition of several more analyses including cluster analyses, consideration of information asymmetry and the chaebol governance.

DNPV: a valuation methodology for infrastructure and Capital investments consistent with prospect theory

Traditional valuation methods such as net present value (NPV) utilize increased discount rates to account for risk, in the process introducing a time bias effect that promotes short-termism. Application of NPV often discourages much needed infrastructure projects that require large capital investments yet are slow to generate positive cashflows. NPV also downplays the significance of future liabilities and can lead to risk misallocation amongst investment partners and stakeholders. The decoupled net present value (DNPV) method introduces the risk-as-a-cost concept that prices the risk of obtaining lower-than-expected cashflows and thus represents investors’ compensation for bearing such risks. Capturing the loss-aversion attitudes described by prospect theory, DNPV provides a transparent and consistent valuation framework for long-term investments by: (i) calculating expected values of cashflow components using their probability characterizations, (ii) defining the cost of risk (market and non-market) as the expected downside value, (iii) subtracting/adding the cost of risk from/to expected revenues/expenditures, and (iv) discounting the results using risk-free rates. DNPV’s power is illustrated by re-analyzing a 42-year toll-road concession initially evaluated using NPV and real options. The case study shows how explicit risk quantifications could be used to better structure the concession and reallocate risks among stakeholders.

The Informativeness of Micro and Macro Information During Economic Crisis and Non-Crisis Periods: Evidence from Europe

We investigate whether and how the information content of reported profitability and macroeconomic expectations changes when the state of the economy changes from non-crisis to crisis conditions. For this, we analyze data from 16 European countries over the period 2005–2015. We find macroeconomic expectations to be useful in predicting future profitability only during non-crisis periods and mainly for firms facing elastic demand for their products and services and firms without sequential losses. Current profitability as well as its cash flow and accruals components are much more informative predictors of future profitability than macroeconomic expectations in both non-crisis and crisis periods. Market pricing tests suggest that macroeconomic expectations are not informative and thus not priced by market participants during crisis periods and support efficient pricing of current profitability under both non-crisis and crisis periods. However, it is the cash flow component of profitability that is efficiently priced under both economic conditions, while the accrual component of profitability is mispriced during crisis periods. Overall, we provide evidence that reported accounting information is much more useful to stock market investors than macroeconomic expectations in both non-crisis and crisis economic periods.

The impact of cash flow management versus accruals management on credit rating performance and usage

Corporate bond issuers attempt to influence bond ratings through their discretion over reported numbers, which could diminish credit rating quality. I find that cash flow management is negatively associated with rating quality, while accruals management is not. These results suggest that rating agencies fail to adjust for cash flow management, but they undo accruals management. The differential results for cash flow management versus accruals management could be due to the rating agencies’ more skeptical attitude towards accruals and the lower cost of adjusting accruals management. The relation between cash flow management and rating quality is weaker for issuers with high leverage and issuers with prior ratings around the investment-/speculative-grade cutoff. Overall, the evidence suggests that rating management through managerial discretion over reported numbers has a detrimental impact on rating quality, but only via the cash flow component. Fortunately, the bond market understands the implications of cash flow management on rating quality and relies less on ratings in response to cash flow management.

A Theory of Multiperiod Debt Structure

Abstract We develop a theory of multiperiod debt structure. A simple trade-off between the termination threat required to make debt repayments incentive compatible and the desire to avoid early liquidation determines the number of repayments, their timing, and amounts. As firms increase their borrowing, they add periodic risky repayments from the back of the maturity structure, with the time between repayments increasing in cash-flow risk. Cash-flow growth or a significant risk-free cash-flow component limits the number of risky repayments. Firms with a significant risk-free cash-flow component choose dispersed maturity profiles with smaller, relatively safe repayments every period, rather than riskier periodic repayments. Received May 31, 2017; editorial decision October 8, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Expected Returns and Risk in the Stock Market

We present new evidence on the predictability of aggregate market returns by developing two new prediction models, one risk-based, and the other purely statistical. The pricing kernel model expresses the expected return as the covariance of the market return with a pricing kernel that is a linear function of portfolio returns. The discount rate model predicts the expected return directly as a function of weighted past portfolio returns. These models provide independent evidence of predictability, with R2 of 16-19% for 1-year returns. We show that innovations in the pricing kernel are associated with the cash flow component of the market return.

The Use of Audit Opinion in Estimating the Financial Reporting Transparency Level

Information presented to stakeholders through a system of standardized indicators and transparency in financial reporting are the basis in the decision-making process for a sustainable development of the companies. The purpose of this study is to analyze and assess the transparency in financial reporting, assessed based on the audit opinion, and the influence of determinant factors on transparency, using logistic regression. The determinant factors are expressed by principal dimensions of financial statements identified through the Principal Component Analysis applied on the indicators of position and performance. The observed sample consists of 62 companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange during the period 2011-2016. The main results reveal the existence of three principal components of the financial statements, Cash flow component, Return component and Current assets structure component; among these dimensions, only the return component has significant influence on transparency in financial reporting assess through the audit opinion.

KEMAMPUAN AKRUAL DAN ARUS KAS MEMPREDIKSI HARGA SAHAM MELALUI PERSISTENSI LABA

The objective of research seems to examine the effect of accrual and cash flow components in predicting earnings persistence. Research also aims at observing the effect of earnings persistence on stock prices, understanding the effect of accrual and cash flow components in predicting stock prices through earnings persistence. Hypotheses test considers contextual model and path analysis to connect the models in manner of causality. Research population includes manufacturing companies listed at Indonesia Stock Exchange in the financial reporting period 1999-2007. Judgment sampling criteria has been used to produce 51 companies with 5 observations for each company, resulting in data pooling of 255 companies. Empirical two model examination produces the probability of significant effect on endogenous variable, which is earnings persistence and stock prices. Individually, accrual and cash flow components have significant effect in predicting earnings persistence, earnings persistence as sustainable earnings prospect have shown significant effect on stock prices. The examination against accrual component ability in predicting stock prices indicates the coefficient of earnings persistence path as a significant mediator. The observation against cash flow component ability in predicting stock prices, however, does not show the coefficient of earnings persistence path as the significant mediator.

Do stock markets acceptably reflect earnings manipulation? Analysis of Indian manufacturing firms

Understanding the quality of a firm’s earnings is essential to developing confidence in its financial reports and making appropriate investment decisions. Generally, a high focus on a firm’s bottom line leads investors to overlook important information contained in financial accruals. Rising accruals along with a rise in earnings may indicate a poor quality of firm’s earnings. The current study is among the few of its kind in India to evaluate the earnings quality of firms. Taking a sample of 1123 firms from manufacturing sector, the first part of our study determines the persistence and mean reversion effect in firms’ earnings to understand whether these are transitory in nature or not. Further, the study divides the earnings into accruals and cash flow components in order to bring out their relative significance in driving future earnings. The second part of our study calculates Benish M-score for the sample companies and draws a comparison on earnings quality on its basis. Finally, we calculate excess buy and hold abnormal returns of size-based portfolios of M-score flagged and unflagged companies to conclude about the differential impact of high- and low-quality earnings on excess returns of stocks.

Earnings Persistence of European Football Clubs under UEFA’s FFP

The goal of this study was to examine the predictability and persistence of earnings of the European football clubs and whether the new Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Financial Fair Play (FFP) licensing regulation has forced clubs to produce a more predictable earnings stream. We utilized a sample of 109 European top-tier clubs over the period 2008–2016, summing up to 844 firm-year observations. Empirical evidence indicated that the cash flow component of earnings is more relevant in predicting one-year ahead earnings than accruals. This positive impact of cash flows for predicting earnings is more significant after the FFP regulation since earnings predictability has increased during that period. Moreover, the abovementioned finding is more significant for the smaller league clubs rather than the Big-5 league clubs. This finding is attributed to the fact that smaller league clubs are more in need of UEFA prize money relative to Big-5 league clubs, thus they are more incentivized to produce a more predictable earnings stream.

Operating cash flow asymmetric timeliness in Australia

AbstractOperating cash flow (CFO) asymmetric timeliness occurs when CFO reflects bad news more quickly than good news. We examine the presence and determinants of CFO asymmetric timeliness in Australia, where substantial differences in reporting requirements of cash flow components, in characteristics of listed companies and in the degree of conservative financial reporting produce contrasting findings to those in the United States. We find supportive evidence for the novel ‘sticky cost behaviour’ explanation and also the product‐pricing strategy, but not the life cycle hypothesis. These findings are useful for investors and analysts concerned with forecasting the future values of companies.