Cash Flow Channel Research Articles

Adjusted dividend-price ratios and stock return predictability: Evidence from China

This paper examines the predictive ability of dividend-price ratios on stock returns in the Chinese A-share market. The results show that in both the in-sample and out-of-sample settings, stock returns are positively predicted by the raw dividend-price ratio and multiple adjusted dividend-price ratios over the 2002–2018 period, especially for the pre-2008 period. However, this predictive power disappeared after the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the unique Semi-Mandatory Dividend Rule (the Rule) in 2008, and this sudden decrease in predictive ability has shown no signs of reversing. Tests using the event-study methodology show a reduction in the positive relation between dividend-price ratios and stock returns in the short term, indicating that the Rule has an adverse impact on the signaling effect of dividend announcements. We further demonstrate that the interference of the Rule with the information conveyed by the dividends explains the disappearance of the predictive power of dividend-price ratios. For firms with insufficient cash flow, dividends provide a negative signal of the firms' value after the enactment of the Rule instead of a positive signal of strong future cash flows. Consequently, the Rule has a negative impact on the efficiency of the cash-flow channel for predicting returns and buries the predictive power of dividend-price ratios.

Procyclicality of the comovement between dividend growth and consumption growth

Duffee (2005) shows that the amount of consumption risk (i.e., the conditional covariance between market returns and consumption growth) is procyclical. In light of this “Duffee Puzzle,” I empirically demonstrate that the conditional covariance between dividend growth (i.e., the immediate cash flow part of market returns) and consumption growth is (1) procyclical and (2) a consistent source of procyclicality in the puzzle. Moreover, I solve an external habit formation model that incorporates realistic joint dynamics of dividend growth and consumption growth. The procyclical dividend-consumption comovement entails two new procyclical terms in the amount of consumption risk via cash flow and valuation channels, respectively. These two procyclical terms play an important role in generating a realistic magnitude of consumption risk. In contrast to extant habit formation models, the conditional equity premium no longer increases monotonically when a negative consumption shock arrives because it might lower the amount of risk while increasing the price of risk.

정책금리 변화가 캐시플로우 경로를 통해 소비지출에 미치는 영향

정책금리 변화가 캐시플로우 경로를 통해 소비지출에 미치는 영향

Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns

In this paper, we empirically evaluate U.S. market return predictability based on an aggregate measure constructed from the bottom-up firm-level cash conversion cycle (CCC) for 1976–2018. We show that in sharp contrast to previous firm-level evidence, the aggregate CCC is a strong positive predictor of the aggregate stock market return both in- and out-of-sample and outperforms a series of well-known return predictors documented in the literature. In addition, the aggregate CCC can predict cross-sectional stock portfolio returns sorted by size, value, momentum, firm-level CCC, and industry and generate substantial certainty equivalent gains associated with a market-timing strategy. Further analysis reveals that the economic source of the predictive power predominantly originates from misvaluation induced by investors’ biased beliefs about future aggregate cash flows, i.e., the cash-flow channel.

Predicting the equity premium with the implied volatility spread

We show that the call-put implied volatility spread (IVS) outperforms many well-known predictors of the U.S. equity premium at return horizons up to six months over the period from 1996:1 to 2017:12. The predictive ability of the IVS is unrelated to the dividend yield and is useful in explaining the cross-section of returns. Decomposing the IVS, we find the longer run predictive ability of the IVS operates primarily through a cash flow channel. We also find the IVS is significantly related to indicators of aggregate market direction and expected market conditions. Our results are consistent with the IVS reflecting market sentiment as well as information about informed trading.

Gold price ratios and aggregate stock returns

We show that most gold price ratios, which represent the relative valuations of gold, positively and significantly predict aggregate stock returns. These ratios fail to generate significant predictive ability after controlling for a series of return predictors described in Welch and Goyal (2008) or to display significant out-of-sample forecasting performance, except for the gold -oil price ratio (GO). GO is the most powerful predictor. A one-standard-deviation increase is associated with a 6.60% increase in the annual excess return for the next month. GO generates the most sizable out-of-sample R^2 and utility gains for a mean-variance investor. We find that the economic source of GO’s predictive ability originates from the cash flow channel using stock return decomposition and positive predictive power on economic conditions. The effect of GO is likely to be reversed only in periods when gold is valuable relative to oil, but the reversal is found to be insignificant. Return predictability from gold price ratios provides us with a new perspective for understanding gold price dynamics.

Predicting the Equity Premium with the Implied Volatility Spread

We show that the call-put implied volatility spread (IVS) outperforms many well-known predictors of the U.S. equity premium at return horizons up to six months over the period from 1996:1 to 2017:12. The predictive ability of the IVS is unrelated to the dividend yield and is useful in explaining the cross-section of returns. Decomposing the IVS, we find the longer run predictive ability of the IVS operates primarily through a cash flow channel. We also find the IVS is significantly related to indicators of aggregate market direction and expected market conditions. Our results are consistent with the IVS reflecting market sentiment as well as information about informed trading.

Cost asymmetry and firm value

In this paper we explore the association between asymmetric cost behavior and firm value. Using a large sample of U.S. data, we find a robust negative relationship between cost asymmetry and firm value. We then explore whether the resource adjustment, managerial expectations, and agency theories of asymmetric cost behaviour affect the negative relation, and find support for the managerial expectation and agency theories. Furthermore, we find evidence that the detrimental impact of asymmetric cost behaviour on firm value is mediated partially through the cost of equity and cash flow channels. Further investigation suggests that the detrimental impact of cost asymmetry on firm value is stronger in the presence of high information asymmetry. We enrich the cost management literature by integrating cost asymmetry with corporate finance.

Monetary Policy Surprises and Corporate Credit Spreads

We study the effects of monetary policy surprises (MPSs) on corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Using high-frequency surprises around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, we find a negative relation between changes in unexpected expansionary monetary policy and changes in CDS spreads using both panel regressions and time-series regressions. More importantly, we show that there is a strong cross-sectional effect of MPSs on CDS spreads. Unexpected expansionary monetary policy reduces the flight-to-safety and flight-to-liquidity phenomenon: The credit spread between investment-grade and high-yield CDSs narrows significantly following an unexpected monetary policy. Finally, we show that monetary policy affects CDS spreads through cash flow, financial constraints, and risk channels.

Transmission of monetary policy in times of high household debt

This paper explores whether the degree of household indebtedness can affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. We take an interacted panel VAR approach, using a panel of 23 countries, thereby obtaining several interesting findings, such as the responses of consumption and investment to monetary shocks are stronger in high levels of household debt. Furthermore, such responses become larger in a contractionary monetary policy stance rather than in an expansionary one, which suggests that monetary policy shocks have asymmetric effects. We have also found that monetary policy has a relatively larger impact in countries with higher share of adjustable-rate loans. Finally, we have found that when a country is in a high-debt state and in a contractionary policy stance, monetary policy is more powerful in countries with a higher share of adjustable-rate loans. We conjecture that these findings support the presence of a cash-flow channel with respect to the transmission of monetary policy in a high household debt state.

Short Interest and Market Risk Premium: The Case of the Korean Market

This study investigates the predictability of short interest over aggregate market risk premium. We construct an aggregate short interest index (SII) using firm-level short interest data, and use predictive regression analysis to compare the predictive power of SII and widely used macro variables. We find that the SII outperforms the macro variables under short-term forecasts and asset allocation. This supports our hypothesis that although short sellers are informed traders, they cannot eliminate the mispricing owing to arbitrage limit and low short selling volume. We demonstrate that the market predictability of SII mostly stems from the future cash flow channel. Key words: Short Interest Index; Market Risk Premium; Macro Variables; Predictive Regression; Informed Traders JEL Classification: C22, C58, G14, G15

The cash paradox

In many industrialized countries, cash usage at points of sale has been decreasing owing to competition from alternative means of payment such as credit cards. At the same time, cash demand, measured as currency in circulation over GDP, fell only in earlier years but has remained surprisingly robust in the past two to three decades. This phenomenon, termed the “cash paradox,” poses a challenge to standard monetary models. We introduce two new features into the standard cash-credit model: the substitutability between cash and credit (as a stand-in for alternative means of payments) is uneven across different economic activities, and some agents actively manage cash flows across these activities. Calibration exercises show that the cash-flow channel is important for quantitatively capturing the diverging trends in cash usage and demand. There is also some empirical support for our model's prediction on cash velocity in the retail sector.

The response of equity prices to monetary policy announcements: Decomposing the announcement day return into cash-flow news, interest rate news, and risk premium news

This paper analyzes how US stock prices respond to monetary policy decisions. On days of FOMC meetings, we decomposed the daily stock market return into cash-flow news, interest rate news, and risk premium news by applying a novel approach which uses information from option prices. The empirical results suggest that the relation between monetary policy surprises and stock returns is state dependent: In expansions (recessions), the cash-flow channel (risk premium channel) explains most of the announcement day returns. However, during time periods with unconventional monetary policy instruments, the risk premium channel has become more important, even in expansions.

Can stale oil price news predict stock returns?

We hand-collect time-series data on positive and negative oil price news from 100 news sources from around the world, covering 59,129 news articles on oil prices. Using time-series predictive regression models estimated for 45 countries, we show that: (a) positive and negative news predict stock returns for at most 12 countries for which the oil price does not predict returns; and (b) together the three oil price measures predict returns for at most 23/45 countries. Therefore, oil price news turns out to be more powerful in predicting returns in a horserace with oil price. We show that the ability of oil to predict returns is through the discount rate and cash flow channels. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests.

The Cash-Flow Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Mortgage Borrowers

This paper investigates the relationships between consumption and mortgage interest reduction caused by an expansionary monetary policy, using comprehensive borrower-level information on mortgages and credit card purchases from a credit bureau company in South Korea. The main findings are as follows: (i) the significant and negative relationship between mortgagors’ interest payments and consumption comes from borrowers with ARMs (Adjustable-Rate Mortgages), (ii) among mortgagors with ARMs, those with low liquidity and credit accessibility show a high interest-induced MPC (Marginal Propensity to Consume), (iii) the debt burdens of mortgagors have a weaker effect on the interest-induced MPC heterogeneity due to active deleveraging behavior of borrowers with a high debt burden, (iv) while unconstrained borrowers consistently show low and insignificant MPCs, constrained borrowers (those with low liquidity, credit accessibility) maintain long-lasting high MPCs for eight quarters after interest reduction, and (v) the MPC of those with low liquidity becomes lower as time goes by, indicating that windfall gains by mortgage interest reduction help to relax the liquidity constraints they face. These results imply that financial characteristics of mortgage borrowers can affect the magnitude and persistence of the cash flow channels of an expansionary monetary policy.

Foundations of ESG Investing: How ESG Affects Equity Valuation, Risk, and Performance

Many studies have focused on the relationship between companies with strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics and corporate financial performance. However, these have often struggled to show that positive correlations—when produced—can in fact explain the behavior. The authors of this article provide a link between ESG information and the valuation and performance of companies, by examining three transmission channels within a standard discounted cash flow model—which they call the cash-flow channel, the idiosyncratic risk channel, and the valuation channel. They tested each of these transmission channels using Morgan Stanley Capital International ESG Ratings data and financial variables. This showed that companies’ ESG information was transmitted to their valuation and performance, both through their systematic risk profile (lower costs of capital and higher valuations) and their idiosyncratic risk profile (higher profitability and lower exposures to tail risk). The research suggests that changes in a company’s ESG characteristics may be a useful financial indicator. ESG ratings may also be suitable for integration into policy benchmarks and financial analyses. TOPICS: ESG investing, security analysis and valuation, risk management

Predicting firm level stock returns: Implications for asset pricing and economic links

We examine the predictive ability of stock price ratios, stock return dispersion and distribution measures for firm level returns. Analysis typically focusses on market level returns, however, for the underlying asset pricing model to hold, firm-level predictability should be present. Additionally, we examine the economic content of predictability by considering whether the predictive coefficient has the theoretically correct sign and whether it is related to future output growth. While stock returns reflect investor expectations regarding future economic conditions, they are often too noisy to act as predictor. We use the time-varying predictive coefficient as it reflects investor confidence in the predictive relation. Results suggest that a subset of stock price ratios have predictive power for individual firm stock returns, exhibit the correct coefficient sign and has predictive power for output growth. Each of these ratios has a measure of fundamentals divided by the stock price and has a positive relation with stock returns and output growth. This implies that as investors expect future economic conditions to improve and earnings and dividends to rise, so expected stock returns will increase. This supports the cash flow channel as the avenue through which stock return predictability arises.

The Cash Paradox

In many industrialized countries, cash usage at points of sale has been decreasing owing to competition from alternative means of payment such as credit cards. At the same time, cash demand, measured as currency in circulation over GDP, fell only in earlier years but has remained surprisingly robust in the past two to three decades. This phenomenon, termed the “cash paradox,” poses a challenge to standard monetary models. We introduce two new features into the standard cash-credit model: the substitutability between cash and credit (as a stand-in for alternative means of payments) is uneven across different economic activities, and some agents actively manage cash flows across these activities. Calibration exercises show that the cash-flow channel is important for quantitatively capturing the diverging trends in cash usage and demand. There is also some empirical support for our model’s prediction on cash velocity in the retail sector.

What do movements in financial traders’ net long positions reveal about aggregate stock returns?

Previous financial economics studies have successfully identified the existence of informed trading in futures markets; however, there is no study on the specific type of strategy chosen by informed agents to maximize profits. To fill this gap in the literature, we investigate the importance of movements in futures traders’ net long positions in predicting aggregate equity market returns. This study finds that movements in the net long positions of bond, commodity, and stock futures traders are strong predictors of aggregate stock returns as they outperform a large number of popular return predictors both in and out of sample. In addition, a one-standard-deviation change in futures traders’ net long positions can lead to an increase (decrease) of up to 3.4% (4.12%) in annualized market excess equity returns. The study’s first-order autocorrelation results reveal an absence of persistence in the net long predictors. A vector autoregression decomposition shows that the economic source of financial traders’ net long position predictive power stems predominantly from the discount rate and cash flow channels. Overall, the study finds that financial traders are informed traders who are able to anticipate future aggregate cash flows and associated discount rate news.

Mortgages, Cash-Flow Shocks and Local Employment

This paper quantifies the local impact of monetary policy through the cash-flow channel during the Crisis by combining novel micro datasets with near-universal coverage of UK mortgages and employment. I estimate that a reduction in mortgage payments equivalent to 1% of household income led to around a 5 percentage point increase in employment growth in non-tradable businesses the following year. But the spatial distribution of mortgage and labour market structures resulted in significant heterogeneity of this effect across the country. Taken at face value, the estimates suggest that the overall effect of accommodative monetary policy on total employment growth in 2010 varied by around 1.5 percentage points across regions.