Hand, Foot And Mouth Disease Cases Research Articles

Exploring the influence of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease with an automatic machine learning prediction model.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an important public health problem and has received concern worldwide. Moreover, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic also increases the difficulty of understanding and predicting the prevalence of HFMD. The purpose is to prove the usability and applicability of the automatic machine learning (Auto-ML) algorithm in predicting the epidemic trend of HFMD and to explore the influence of COVID-19 on the spread of HFMD. The AutoML algorithm and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model were applied to construct and validate models, based on the monthly incidence numbers of HFMD and meteorological factors from May 2008 to December 2019 in Henan province, China. A total of four models were established, among which the Auto-ML model with meteorological factors had minimum RMSE and MAE in both the model constructing phase and forecasting phase (training set: RMSE = 1424.40 and MAE = 812.55; test set: RMSE = 2107.83, MAE = 1494.41), so this model has the best performance. The optimal model was used to further predict the incidence numbers of HFMD in 2020 and then compared with the reported cases. And, for analysis, 2020 was divided into two periods. The predicted incidence numbers followed the same trend as the reported cases of HFMD before the COVID-19 outbreak; while after the COVID-19 outbreak, the reported cases have been greatly reduced than expected, with an average of only about 103 cases per month, and the incidence peak has also been delayed, which has led to significant changes in the seasonality of HFMD. Overall, the AutoML algorithm is an applicable and ideal method to predict the epidemic trend of the HFMD. Furthermore, it was found that the countermeasures of COVID-19 have a certain influence on suppressing the spread of HFMD during the period of COVID-19. The findings are helpful to health administrative departments.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease and influencing factors in China from 2011 to 2018

Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, explore the association of socioeconomic, population and health services factors with the incidence of HFMD in China, and provide information for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods: Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to fit the data of HFMD, evaluate the spatiotemporal variation of HFMD, and identify the potential association between the risk of HFMD and social, economic, population and health services. Results: From 2011 to 2018, a total of 17 118 050 HFMD cases, including 2 283 deaths, were reported in China. The reported incidence showed a fluctuating increase trend from 2011 to 2014, and a fluctuating decrease trend from 2014 to 2018. Meanwhile, there was a fluctuating decrease trend of mortality rate. The incidence of HFMD had spatial clustering, with the highest incidence in southern China with hot spot and high risk areas, and the lowest incidence in northwestern China where cold spot and low risk areas were found. The risk for HFMD was associated with GDP per capita (RR=3.54), number of industrial enterprises above designated size of 10 000 people (RR=1.61), urbanization rate (RR=3.00), birth rate (RR=2.36), number of beds in medical institutions per 10 000 people (RR=3.40), and green area in parks per capita (RR=0.57). Conclusions: The hotspot area for HFMD prevention and control in China was in the southeast coastal provinces from 2011 to 2018. In order to reduce the incidence of HFMD, it is necessary to increase the green area in parks per capita while accelerating urbanization process.

Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mild hand, foot and mouth disease in children under 7 years old, Nanjing, China, 2010–2019

BackgroundMild hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases make up a relatively high proportion of HFMD while have often been overlooked. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mild HFMD in Nanjing.MethodsData on mild HFMD cases, during 2010–2019 in Nanjing, were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. This study mainly focused on mild cases aged < 7 years. Descriptive analysis was used to summarize epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mild cases. Flexible spatial scan statistic was used to detect spatial clusters of mild cases.ResultsA total of 175,339 mild cases aged < 7 years were reported, accounting for 94.4% of all mild cases. There was a higher average annual incidence of mild HFMD in children aged < 7 years (4,428 cases/100,000) compared with children aged ≥ 7 years (14 cases/100,000, P < 0.001), and especially children aged 1-year-old (7,908 cases/100,000). Mild cases showed semi-annual peaks of activity, including a major peak (April to July) and a minor peak (September to November). The average annual incidence was higher in males (5,040 cases/100,000) than females (3,755 cases/100,000). Based on the cumulative reported cases, the most likely cluster was detected, including Yuhuatai District, Jiangning District, Jiangbei new Area, and Pukou District. The annual distribution of enterovirus serotypes showed a significant difference. During 2010–2016, Enterovirus 71 (EV71), Coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16), and other non-EV71/Cox A16 EVs, accounted for 29.1%, 34.6%, 36.3% of all the enterovirus test positive cases, respectively. Moreover, during 2017–2019, Cox A6, Cox A16, EV71, and other non-EV71/Cox A16/Cox A6 EVs, accounted for 47.3%, 32.5%, 10.7%, 9.5%, respectively.ConclusionsChildren under 7 years old are at higher risk of mild HFMD. Regions with high risk are mainly concentrated in the areas surrounding central urban areas. Cox A16 and Cox A6 became the dominant serotypes and they alternated or were co-epidemic. Our findings could provide valuable information for improving the regional surveillance, prevention and control strategies of HFMD.

Study on the interaction between different pathogens of Hand, foot and mouth disease in five regions of China.

ObjectivesThis study aims to explore the interaction of different pathogens in Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) by using a mathematical epidemiological model and the reported data in five regions of China.MethodsA cross-regional dataset of reported HFMD cases was built from four provinces (Fujian Province, Jiangsu province, Hunan Province, and Jilin Province) and one municipality (Chongqing Municipality) in China. The subtypes of the pathogens of HFMD, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), enteroviruses A71 (EV-A71), and other enteroviruses (Others), were included in the data. A mathematical model was developed to fit the data. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated to quantify the transmissibility of the pathogens.ResultsIn total, 3,336,482 HFMD cases were collected in the five regions. In Fujian Province, the Reff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, and between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others showed statistically significant differences (P < 0.05). In Jiangsu Province, there was a significant difference in Reff (P < 0.05) between the CV-A16 and Total. In Hunan Province, the Reff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, between CV-A16 and Total were significant (P < 0.05). In Chongqing Municipality, we found significant differences of the Reff (P < 0.05) between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others, and between Others and CV-A16&Others. In Jilin Province, significant differences of the Reff (P < 0.05) were found between EV-A71 and Total, and between Others and Total.ConclusionThe major pathogens of HFMD have changed annually, and the incidence of HFMD caused by others and CV-A16 has surpassed that of EV-A71 in recent years. Cross-regional differences were observed in the interactions between the pathogens.

Trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2010 to 2021 and estimation of the reduction in enterovirus 71 infection after vaccine use in Zhejiang Province, China.

BackgroundZhejiang, ranked in the top three in HFMD (hand, foot, and mouth disease) incidence, is located in the Yangtze River Delta region of southeast China. Since 2016, the EV71 vaccine has been promoted in Zhejiang Province. This study aimed to investigate the trend and seasonal variation characteristics of HFMD from 2010 to 2021 and estimate the reduction in enterovirus 71 infection after vaccine use.MethodsThe data on HFMD cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2010 to December 2021 were obtained from this network system. Individual information on cases and deaths was imported, and surveillance information, including demographic characteristics and temporal distributions, was computed by the system. The Joinpoint regression model was used to describe continuous changes in the incidence trend. The BSTS (Bayesian structural time-series models) model was used to estimate the monthly number of cases from 2017 to 2021 based on the observed monthly incidence during 2010–2016 by accounting for seasonality and long-term trends. The seasonal variation characteristics of HFMD pathogens were detected by wavelet analysis.ResultsFrom 2010 to 2021, the annual incidence rate fluctuated between 98.81 cases per 100,000 in 2020 and 435.63 cases per 100,000 in 2018, and 1711 severe HFMD cases and 106 fatal cases were reported in Zhejiang Province, China. The annual percent change (APC) in EV71 cases was -30.72% (95% CI: -45.10 to -12.50) from 2016 to 2021. The wavelet transform of total incidence and number of cases of the three pathogens all showed significant periodicity on the 1-year scale. The average 2-year scale periodicity was significant for the total incidence, EV71 cases and Cox A16 cases, but the other enterovirus cases showed significant periodicity on the 30-month scale. The 6-month scale periodicity was significant for the total incidence, EV71 case and Cox A16 case but not for the other enteroviruses case. The relative error percentage of the performance of the BSTS model was 0.3%. The estimated number of cases from 2017 to 2021 after the EV-A71 vaccines were used was 9422, and the reduction in the number of cases infected with the EV71 virus was 73.43% compared to 70.80% when the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 was excluded.ConclusionsSince 2010, the incidence of EV71 infections has shown an obvious downward trend. All types of viruses showed significant periodicity on the 1-year scale. The periodicity of the biennial peak is mainly related to EV71 and Cox A16 before 2017 and other enteroviruses since 2018. The half-year peak cycle of HFMD was mainly caused by EV71 and Cox A6 infection. The expected incidence will be 2.76 times(include the cases of 2020) and 2.43 times(exclude the cases of 2020) higher than the actual value assuming that the measures of vaccination are not taken. EV71 vaccines are very effective and should be administered in the age window between 5 months and 5 years.

Effect of enterovirus 71 vaccination on the epidemiological characteristics and etiology in hospitalized children with hand-foot-and-mouth disease: A retrospective study from a tertiary children's hospital.

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine for hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) prevention has been available for several years. However, as a new vaccine, the impact of EV71 vaccination on the epidemiology and etiology of HFMD is currently unclear. The purpose of this study was to compare and analyze the changes of epidemiological characteristics and etiology of HFMD patients after the introduction of EV71 vaccine. The data of hospitalized children with HFMD from 2014 to 2020 were collected from the case record department of a tertiary children hospital of Anhui Province. The changes of epidemiological characteristics, time distribution, disease severity and enterovirus serotypes in hospitalized children were analyzed. A total of 7373 cases of HFMD were reported during 2014 to 2020, including 634 (8.6%) severe cases. The number of cases reached the peak in 2016 (n = 1783) and decreased gradually after EV71 vaccination. The results of etiological test showed the positive rate was 80.5%, in which EV71 accounted for 1599 (21.7%) and CV-A16 accounted for 1028 (13.9%) respectively. The number of patients showed a bimodal distribution throughout the year, which were April to June and October to November. The age distribution changed significantly following the introduction of EV71 vaccine. The proportion of 1-year-old group of post-vaccination was significantly higher than that of pre-vaccination (61.9% vs 50.8%, P < .001). The proportion of HFMD caused by EV71 and severe cases decreased significantly after the vaccination (P < .001 for both). While the comparison of epidemiological characteristics and enterovirus serotypes between unvaccinated and vaccinated cases during 2017 to 2020 showed no significant difference. The dominant enterovirus serotypes of hospitalized HFMD changed significantly after the introduction of EV71 vaccine. The proportion of severe cases decreased significantly after the vaccination, but EV71 was still a major pathogen in patients with severe HFMD. More age-appropriate children are recommended to get vaccinated to establish stronger herd immunity in the population.

The lagged effect and attributable risk of apparent temperature on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Changsha, China: a distributed lag non-linear model.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is the leading Category C infectious disease affecting millions of children in China every year. In the context of global climate change, the understanding and quantification of the impact of weather factors on human health are particularly critical to the development and implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study was to quantify the attributable burden of a combined bioclimatic indicator (apparent temperature) on HFMD and to identify temperature-specific sensitive populations. A total of 123,622 HFMD cases were included in the study. The non-linear relationship between apparent temperature and the incidence of HFMD was approximately M-shaped, with hot weather being more likely to be attributable than cold conditions, of which moderately hot accounting for the majority of cases (21,441, 17.34%). Taking the median apparent temperature (19.2°C) as reference, the cold effect showed a short acute effect with the highest risk on the day of lag 0 (RR = 1.086, 95% CI: 1.024 ~ 1.152), whereas the hot effect lasted longer with the greatest risk at a lag of 7days (RR = 1.081, 95% CI: 1.059 ~ 1.104). Subgroup analysis revealed that males, children under 3years old, and scattered children tended to be more vulnerable to HFMD in hot weather, while females, those aged 3 ~ 5years, and nursery children were sensitive to cold conditions. This study suggests that high temperatures have a greater impact on HFMD than low temperatures as well as lasting longer, of particular concern being moderately high temperatures rather than extreme temperatures. Early intervention takes on greater importance during cold days, while the duration of HFMD intervention must be longer during hot days.

Regional characteristics and spatiotemporal differentiation of the prevalence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xinjiang, China

In recent years, the number of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases in China has continued to grow, and the disease has become a serious public health issue. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is located in the arid areas of Northwest China, where the epidemiological trend of HFMD is gradually increasing and characterized by geographical heterogeneity. In this study, based on the HFMD case data in all counties and cities in Xinjiang, we employed statistical and GIS spatial analyses, and geographic probe models to characterize the spatiotemporal differentiation of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang during the period of 2009–2018, and quantitatively analyzed the factors influencing the spatial differentiation of HFMD epidemics. The results showed that HFMD incidence rate in Xinjiang had non-stationary temporal characteristics on the interannual and monthly scales, and the monthly variation characteristics of HFMD epidemic were quite different in southern and northern Xinjiang. The spatial distribution characteristics of HFMD epidemics showed a north–south spatial differentiation pattern with the Tianshan Mountains as the boundary; cold spot and hot spot of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang have shifted from scattered to concentrated, and the spatial differentiation pattern had gradually stabilized. Moreover, the dominant factors influencing the spatial differentiation of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang were socioeconomic factors, such as per capita GDP and urbanization rate, while the basic factors affecting its spatial differentiation were natural environmental factors. The spatial differentiation and evolution patterns of HFMD epidemics differed between northern and southern Xinjiang. Specifically, the leading role of socioeconomic factors is more obvious in southern Xinjiang than in northern Xinjiang, while natural environmental factors (e.g., dryness and relative humidity) contribute to the prevalence of HFMD epidemics in northern Xinjiang, and the perturbing effect of these factors was more prominent than other factors. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the prevention of HFMD epidemics and early warning of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang.

Complex interaction between meteorological factors on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease

The relationship between meteorological factors and the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been well documented. However, researchers have failed to consider the complex interactive relationships among meteorological factors. The weekly number of HFMD cases along with meteorological factors were collected between 2009 to 2017 in four cities in Guangdong Province. We used Bayesian kernel machine regression to investigate the nonlinear and interactive relationship between meteorological factors, such as temperature and humidity, on the risk of HFMD. Multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the city-specific effect estimates and identify factors underlying the inter-city heterogeneity. The risk ratios (RRs) for each percentile increase in temperature from the 50th percentile value, while humidity was at its 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values, were 1.621(95%CI: 1.226, 2.141), 2.638(2.169, 3.208), and 3.734(2.908, 4.792), respectively (Q= 19.132, P interaction< 0.001). In contrast, the RRs for each percentile increase in humidity from its 50th percentile, while holding temperature at its 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values, were 0.901(95%CI: 0.592, 1.369), 2.026(1.679, 2.448), and 0.884(0.632, 1.238), respectively (Q= 24.876, P interaction < 0.001). Increased wind speed and sunshine duration were also observed to strengthen the impact of other meteorological factors. Furthermore, we found increased gross domestic product per capita and per capital area of parks and green land in city tended to significantly strengthen the interactive effects of humidity on other meteorological factors including sunshine duration (P = 0.013 and 0.042), rainfall (P = 0.017 and 0.035), temperature (P = 0.021 and 0.031), win speed (P = 0.011 and 0.045), and pressure (P = 0.013 and 0.042). Our study contributed further understanding of complex interactions between meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD. Our findings provide epidemiological evidence for meteorological interactions on HFMD, which may provide knowledge for future research on the health effects of meteorological factors.

Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the province level in mainland China, 2011-2018.

Although three monovalent EV-A71 vaccines have been launched in mainland China since 2016, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) still causes a considerable disease burden in China. Vaccines’ use may change the epidemiological characters of HFMD. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scan statistics analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of this disease at the provincial level in mainland China. The effects of meteorological factors, socio-economic factors, and health resources on HFMD incidence were analyzed using Geodetector. Interrupted time series (ITS) was used to analyze the impact of the EV-A71 vaccine on the incidence of HFMD. This study found that the median annual incidence of HFMD was 153.78 per 100,000 (ranging from 120.79 to 205.06) in mainland China from 2011 to 2018. Two peaks of infections were observed per year. Children 5 years and under were the main morbid population. The spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern in each year (P<0.001). The distribution of HFMD cases was clustered in time and space. The range of cluster time was between April and October. The most likely cluster appeared in the southern coastal provinces (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan) from 2011 to 2017 and in the eastern coastal provinces (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) in 2018. The spatial heterogeneity of HFMD incidence could be attributed to meteorological factors, socioeconomic factors, and health resource. After introducing the EV-A71 vaccine, the instantaneous level of HFMD incidence decreased at the national level, and HFMD incidence trended downward in the southern coastal provinces and increased in the eastern coastal provinces. The prevention and control policies of HFMD should be adapted to local conditions in different provinces. It is necessary to advance the EV-A71 vaccination plan, expand the vaccine coverage and develop multivalent HFMD vaccines as soon as possible.

Molecular epidemiology of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease in South India from 2015 to 2017

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infection caused by human enteroviruses and is clinically characterised by fever with vesicular rash on the hands, feet, and mouth. While enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) were the major etiological agents of HFMD in India earlier, the data on recently circulating enteroviruses associated with HFMD are sparse. Here, we describe the molecular epidemiology of enteroviruses associated with HFMD in South India from 2015 to 2017. We used archived enterovirus real-time reverse transcription (RT) PCR-positive vesicle swab and/or throat swab specimens from clinically suspected HFMD cases collected from four secondary-care hospitals in South India between July 2015 and December 2017. PCR amplification and sequencing were done based on the 5’VP1, 3’VP1, VP2, or 5´NCR regions to identify enterovirus types. Genetic diversity among enteroviruses was inferred by phylogenetic analysis. Of the 107 enterovirus RNA real-time RT-PCR-positive HFMD cases, 69 (64%) were typed as CVA6, 16 (15%) were CVA16, and one (1%) was CVA10, whereas in 21 (20%) cases, the virus was not typeable by any of the methods used in the study. The majority of HFMD cases (89, 83%) were in children less than five years old, while 11 (10.3%) were in adults. 5’VP1 yielded the maximum number of enteroviruses genotyped, and phylogenetic analysis showed that the CVA6 strains belonged to subclade D3, while the subclades of CVA16 and CVA10 were B1c and D, respectively. The predominant etiological agent of HFMD in South India during 2015-2017 was CVA6, followed by CVA16 and CVA10.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00705-022-05561-0.

Prediction of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Japan using a long short-term memory approach.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common febrile illness caused by enteroviruses in the Picornaviridae family. The major symptoms of HFMD are fever and a vesicular rash on the hand, foot, or oral mucosa. Acute meningitis and encephalitis are observed in rare cases. HFMD epidemics occur annually in Japan, usually in the summer season. Relatively large-scale outbreaks have occurred every two years since 2011. In this study, the epidemic patterns of HFMD in Japan are predicted four weeks in advance using a deep learning method. The time-series data were analyzed by a long short-term memory (LSTM) approach called a Recurrent Neural Network. The LSTM model was trained on the numbers of weekly HFMD cases in each prefecture. These data are reported in the Infectious Diseases Weekly Report, which compiles the national surveillance data from web sites at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan, under the Infectious Diseases Control Law. Consequently, our trained LSTM model distinguishes between relatively large-scale and small-scale epidemics. The trained model predicted the HFMD epidemics in 2018 and 2019, indicating that the LSTM approach can estimate the future epidemic patterns of HFMD in Japan.

The impact of enterovirus A71 vaccination program on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: A longitudinal surveillance study

Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program was introduced in 2016 in China. Based on a longitudinal surveillance dataset from 2012 to 2019 in Guangdong, China, we estimated the impact of the EV71 vaccination program on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence, by using a counterfactual prediction made from synthetic control approach integrated with a Bayesian time-series model. We observed a relative reduction of 41.4% for EV71-associated HFMD cases during the post-vaccination period of 2017–2019, corresponding to 26,226 cases averted. The reduction of EV71-associated HFMD cases raised with the elevation of EV71 vaccine coverage by year. We found an indirect effect for the children aged 6–14 years who were less likely to be vaccinated. Whereas, the EV71 vaccine may not protect against non-EV71-associated HFMD. This study provides a template for ongoing public health surveillance of EV71 vaccine effectiveness with a counterfactual study design. Our results show strong evidence of the EV71 vaccination program working on reducing EV71-associated HFMD in real-world settings. The finding will benefit policy-making of EV71 vaccination and the prevention of HFMD.

Assessing the impact of ambient temperature on the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: New insight from the disease severity and burden.

BackgroundThe association between the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and ambient temperature has been well documented. Although the severity of symptoms is an important indicator of disease burden and varies significantly across cases, it usually was ignored in previous studies, potentially leading to biased estimates of the health impact of temperature.MethodsWe estimated the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) by considering the severity of symptoms for each HFMD case reported during 2010–2012 in Guangdong and used distributed lag-nonlinear models to estimate the association between the daily average temperature and daily DALY of HFMD cases at the city-level. We investigated the potential effect modifiers on the pathway between temperature and DALY and pooled city-specific estimates to a provincial association using a meta-regression. The overall impact of temperature was further evaluated by estimates of DALYs that could be attributed to HFMD.ResultsThe overall cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the DALY of HFMD showed an inverse-U shape, with the maximum effect estimated to be β = 0.0331 (95%CI: 0.0199–0.0463) DALY at 23.8°C. Overall, a total of 6.432 (95%CI: 3.942–8.885) DALYs (attributable fraction = 2.721%, 95%CI: 1.660–3.759%) could be attributed to temperature exposure. All the demographic subgroups had a similar trend as the main analysis, while the magnitude of the peak of the temperature impact tended to be higher among the males, those aged ≥3yrs or from the Pear-River Delta region. Additionally, the impact of temperature on DALY elevated significantly with the increasing population density, per capita GDP, and per capita green space in parks.ConclusionsTemperature exposure was associated with increased burden of HFMD nonlinearly, with certain groups such as boys and those from areas with greater population density being more vulnerable.

Epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease clusters during 2016-2020 in Beijing, China.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease that usually occurs in children under 5 years and is caused by a group of enteroviruses. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD clusters from 2016 to 2020 in Tongzhou, Beijing, and explored the genetic evolution of CV-A6. The HFMD case information came from the Information System of China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as well as the clusters information verification and on-site investigation by Tongzhou CDC. ARIMA model was applied to forecast HFMD clusters in 2020. Totally 440 HFMD clusters were reported during 2016-2020. The large peak of the clusters occurred in April-July, followed by a smaller peak in October-November during 2016-2019. However, in 2020, the two peaks disappeared. The main site of HFMD clusters was childcare facilities (65.0%) and mostly occurred in urban areas (46.1%). The detection rate of CV-A6 was the highest (36.1%), and cases with CV-A6 infection had the highest proportion of fever. The phylogenetic analysis based on CV-A6 VP1 gene showed that the predominant strains mainly located in Group F during 2016-2017, while changed into Group A during 2018-2020. HFMD clusters presented seasonality, mainly located in childcare facilities and urban areas, and CV-A6 was the major causative agent. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce HFMD clusters.

Research advances in transmission dynamic models on hand, foot, and mouth disease

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infectious disease caused by various enteroviruses. China has the most significant number of reported cases and deaths of HFMD over the globe. Understanding the epidemic laws of HFMD can provide a scientific basis for designing prevention and control measures. The dynamic transmission models focus on the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases. They can simulate the actual situation to study the epidemic rules of diseases by adding, deleting, and subdividing compartments. More researchers have paid attention to dynamic models because of their high flexibility. To carry out the dynamic model of the HFMD research more effectively, a comprehensive understanding of related research progress in this field is deeply needed. In this paper, based on various researchers' different research purposes of dynamic models, the research progress was classified and summarized, providing meaningful guidance for model construction methods and future research directions and references for dynamic modeling of other models of infectious diseases. It was found that most studies used the SIR dynamic model or its extended model (such as the SEIR model), and few studies contained a complex factor compartment. Some important epidemiological parameters (such as R0) were obtained by studying the HFMD cases in a specific region, simulating different intervention scenarios to evaluate the effect of measures, or revealing the future trend by model prediction. However, there is no dynamic model simultaneously considering age structure, population moving, seasonality and periodicity, and vaccination.

A retrospective analysis on incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Kota Kinabalu, district of Sabah Malaysia

Malaysia is one of the most affected countries by hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreak. Sabah, as a state of Malaysia, has an incidence of 2,200 HFMD cases in 2018. Kota Kinabalu hits the highest records of HFMD cases compared to other districts. Given the marked increase in HFMD cases, HFMD become a public health concern which is associated with a substantial economic and social burden. From the perspective of public health, it is important to study the disease patterns and associated risk factors. This paper describes the incidence of HFMD and potential demographic risk factors in this understudied Kota Kinabalu District. A total of 3,327 HFMD cases from year 2013 to 2018 were obtained from the Kota Kinabalu Health Office. Cases were classified according to year of incidence, patient’s gender, age, and ethnic. Incidence of HFMD and percentage of severe HFMD were calculated for each category. Odd ratio of severe HFMD for each category was assessed with logistic regression model. Chi-square tests were implemented to identify the association between the case characteristics and severe HFMD. This study found that male and Sabah indigenous group are predominant in HFMD incidence. Chi-square test indicated that severe HFMD is significantly associated with patient’s age and ethnicity.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;

Etiology and epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been widespread in the world, and caused fever, rashes and other clinical symptoms of children, and sometimes inducing respiratory failure, brainstem encephalitis, and other complications, even death. The disease is mainly caused by enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus 16 (CV-A16). Since 2013, the proportion of HFMD cases caused by other enteroriruses has gradually increased, causing severe and even fatal cases. This paper summarizes the research progress in the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of HFMD in China since 2008.

Disease burden in patients with severe hand, foot, and mouth disease in Jiangsu Province: a cross-sectional study

ABSTRACT This study aimed to estimate the disease burden and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among patients with severe hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jiangsu Province, China. We analyzed the surveillance data of HFMD cases in Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2020. Moreover, a cross-sectional study was conducted in Nanjing and Suzhou, China, between January 2017 and May 2018. Patients with severe HFMD and their parents were recruited from selected hospitals. Questionnaires and hospital management systems were used to collect data on direct economic burden. The HRQOL of children was assessed using the TNO-AZL Preschool Quality of Life (TAPQOL) scale. A total of 1,348,737 confirmed cases of HFMD were reported to the NNDRS in Jiangsu province during 2009–2020. Of these, 9,622 were severe cases, with 62 (.64%) of these being fatal. From January 2017 to May 2018, data was collected from 362 severe HFMD cases using a structured questionnaire. The median per capita direct economic burden was RMB 16142.88, and was associated with the region and length of hospital stay (P < .05). The direct economic burden for all cases of severe HFMD in Jiangsu province between 2017 and 2018 was approximately RMB 16.64 million. Finally, the median (IQR) of the TAPQOL scale for children with severe HFMD was 69.23 (56.20, 82.27). Severe HFMD infection is a relatively large burden for individuals, and the burden of EV-A71 infection was seen to be even greater for the population. Prevention of severe HFMD should strengthen hygiene habits and targeted measures for EV-A71 vaccination.

Prototypes virus of hand, foot and mouth disease infections and severe cases in Gansu, China: a spatial and temporal analysis

BackgroundLittle research has been conducted on the spatio-temporal relationship between the severe cases and the enteroviruses infections of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). This study aimed to investigate epidemic features and spatial clusters of HFMD incidence rates and assess the relationship between Enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CoxA16) and severe cases of HMFD in Gansu province, China.MethodsWeekly county-specific data on HFMD between 1st January and 31st December 2018 were collected from the China Infectious Disease Information System (CIDIS), including enterovirus type (EV71 and CoxA16), severe and non-severe cases in Gansu province, China. Temporal risk [frequency index (α), duration index (β) and intensity index (γ)] and spatial cluster analysis were used to assess epidemic features and identify high-risk areas for HFMD. Time-series cross-correlation function and regression model were used to explore the relationship between the ratios of two types of viruses (i.e. EV71/Cox16) (EC) and severe cases index (i.e. severe cases/non-severe cases) (SI) of HFMD.ResultsSome counties in Dingxi City, Gansu were identified as a hot spot for the temporal risk indices. Time-series cross-correlation analysis showed that SI was significantly associated with EC (r = 0.417, P < 0.05) over a 4-week time lag. The regression analysis showed that SI was positively associated with EC (β = 0.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02–0.06).ConclusionThe spatial patterns of HFMD incidence were associated with enteroviruses in Gansu. The research suggested that the EC could be considered a potential early warning sign for predicting severe cases of HFMD in Gansu province.