Case-driven Approach Research Articles

Fitting the reproduction number from UK coronavirus case data and why it is close to 1.

We present a method for rapid calculation of coronavirus growth rates and -numbers tailored to publicly available UK data. We assume that the case data comprise a smooth, underlying trend which is differentiable, plus systematic errors and a non-differentiable noise term, and use bespoke data processing to remove systematic errors and noise. The approach is designed to prioritize up-to-date estimates. Our method is validated against published consensus -numbers from the UK government and is shown to produce comparable results two weeks earlier. The case-driven approach is combined with weight–shift–scale methods to monitor trends in the epidemic and for medium-term predictions. Using case-fatality ratios, we create a narrative for trends in the UK epidemic: increased infectiousness of the B1.117 (Alpha) variant, and the effectiveness of vaccination in reducing severity of infection. For longer-term future scenarios, we base future on insight from localized spread models, which show going asymptotically to 1 after a transient, regardless of how large the transient is. This accords with short-lived peaks observed in case data. These cannot be explained by a well-mixed model and are suggestive of spread on a localized network.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’.

Generating evacuation task plans for community typhoon emergencies: an integration of case-driven and model-driven approaches

In community emergency management, it is crucial to generate evacuation task plans (ETPs) to help reduce risks in complex disaster situations. Case-driven and model-driven approaches have their respective advantages in generating ETPs, which can complement each other. With case-driven approach, historical experience can be fully used to establish the relationship between typhoon scenarios and historical ETPs. Through model-driven approach, the continuity of ETPs can be guaranteed when required information to operate the plans is missing. This study aims at proposing an integrated approach that can combine the benefits of both case-driven approaches and model-driven approaches. Based on the structural modeling of evacuation tasks, this paper proposes an integrated approach to generate ETPs for community typhoon emergencies. Finally, a case that is based on actual problems is provided to verify the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Review of Violence Risk Assessment for the General Clinician

Violence risk assessment is an integral part of mental health evaluations. Components of violence risk assessment include defining the risk assessment question, considering base rate data, considering risk and protective factors in the population, and identifying risk factors specific to the person being evaluated. The methods and instruments used to assess risk vary based on structure, validity, and availability. Threat assessment, which is an idiographic or case-driven approach, is an emerging area of study separate from violence risk assessment. Clinical situations also arise in which clinicians do not have specific tools or validated methods to assess violence risk; in these types of cases, a fact-based inquiry should be considered. [ Psychiatr Ann . 2017;47(9):449–453.]

Diversion in a Culture of Severity

This paper focuses on the recent history and current operation of a well‐established multi‐agency diversion and crime prevention unit in Northamptonshire in Britain. Four themes are addressed specifically. First, we examine the place of diversionary initiatives in the context of a central government‐driven ‘get tough on crime’ agenda. Second, the local conditions and struggles over the fate of multi‐agency diversion in Northamptonshire are outlined. Third, we present an empirical overview of the current rationale and routine work of the Diversion Unit. Fourth, we examine the nature of multi‐agency practices on the ground and, in passing, test the claims of the influential academic ‘net‐widening’ and ‘denial of justice’theses on multi‐agency diversion. In conclusion, we argue that a multi‐agency case‐driven approach to diversion has emerged in response to the renewed ‘culture of severity’around crime control issues.