Extinction Cascades Research Articles

The extinction of the dinosaurs.

Non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago, geologically coincident with the impact of a large bolide (comet or asteroid) during an interval of massive volcanic eruptions and changes in temperature and sea level. There has long been fervent debate about how these events affected dinosaurs. We review a wealth of new data accumulated over the past two decades, provide updated and novel analyses of long-term dinosaur diversity trends during the latest Cretaceous, and discuss an emerging consensus on the extinction's tempo and causes. Little support exists for a global, long-term decline across non-avian dinosaur diversity prior to their extinction at the end of the Cretaceous. However, restructuring of latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas in North America led to reduced diversity of large-bodied herbivores, perhaps making communities more susceptible to cascading extinctions. The abruptness of the dinosaur extinction suggests a key role for the bolide impact, although the coarseness of the fossil record makes testing the effects of Deccan volcanism difficult.

Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

Predicting the effect of competition on secondary plant extinctions in plant–pollinator networks

What are the limitations of models that predict the behavior of an ecological community based on a single type of species interaction? Using plant–pollinator network models as an example, we contrast the predicted vulnerability of a community to secondary extinctions under the assumption of purely mutualistic interactions versus mutualistic and competitive interactions. We find that competition among plant species increases the risk of secondary extinctions and extinction cascades. Simulations over a number of different network structures indicate that this effect is stronger in larger networks, more strongly connected networks and networks with higher plant:pollinator ratios. We conclude that efforts to model plant–pollinator communities will systematically over‐estimate community robustness to species loss if plant competition is ignored. However, because the effect of plant competition depends on network architecture, and because characterization of plant competition is work intensive, we suggest that efforts to account for plant competition in plant–pollinator network models should be focused on large, strongly connected networks with high plant:pollinator ratios.

Abrupt community transitions and cyclic evolutionary dynamics in complex food webs

Understanding the emergence and maintenance of biodiversity ranks among the most fundamental challenges in evolutionary ecology. While processes of community assembly have frequently been analyzed from an ecological perspective, their evolutionary dimensions have so far received less attention. To elucidate the eco-evolutionary processes underlying the long-term build-up and potential collapse of community diversity, here we develop and examine an individual-based model describing coevolutionary dynamics driven by trophic interactions and interference competition, of a pair of quantitative traits determining predator and prey niches. Our results demonstrate the (1) emergence of communities with multiple trophic levels, shown here for the first time for stochastic models with linear functional responses, and (2) intermittent and cyclic evolutionary transitions between two alternative community states. In particular, our results indicate that the interplay of ecological and evolutionary dynamics often results in extinction cascades that remove the entire trophic level of consumers from a community. Finally, we show the (3) robustness of our results under variations of model assumptions, underscoring that processes of consumer collapse and subsequent rebound could be important elements of understanding biodiversity dynamics in natural communities.

High frequency of functional extinctions in ecological networks

Intensified exploitation of natural populations and habitats has led to increased mortality rates and decreased abundances of many species. There is a growing concern that this might cause critical abundance thresholds of species to be crossed, with extinction cascades and state shifts in ecosystems as a consequence. When increased mortality rate and decreased abundance of a given species lead to extinction of other species, this species can be characterized as functionally extinct even though it still exists. Although such functional extinctions have been observed in some ecosystems, their frequency is largely unknown. Here we use a new modelling approach to explore the frequency and pattern of functional extinctions in ecological networks. Specifically, we analytically derive critical abundance thresholds of species by increasing their mortality rates until an extinction occurs in the network. Applying this approach on natural and theoretical food webs, we show that the species most likely to go extinct first is not the one whose mortality rate is increased but instead another species. Indeed, up to 80% of all first extinctions are of another species, suggesting that a species' ecological functionality is often lost before its own existence is threatened. Furthermore, we find that large-bodied species at the top of the food chains can only be exposed to small increases in mortality rate and small decreases in abundance before going functionally extinct compared to small-bodied species lower in the food chains. These results illustrate the potential importance of functional extinctions in ecological networks and lend strong support to arguments advocating a more community-oriented approach in conservation biology, with target levels for populations based on ecological functionality rather than on mere persistence.

The form of direct interspecific competition modifies secondary extinction patterns in multi‐trophic food webs

Forcibly removing species from ecosystems has important consequences for the remaining assemblage, leading to changes in community structure, ecosystem functioning and secondary (cascading) extinctions. One key question that has arisen from single‐ and multi‐trophic ecosystem models is whether the secondary extinctions that occur within competitive communities (guilds) are also important in multi‐trophic ecosystems? The loss of consumer–resource links obviously causes secondary extinction of specialist consumers (topological extinctions), but the importance of secondary extinctions in multi‐trophic food webs driven by direct competitive exclusion remains unknown. Here I disentangle the effects of extinctions driven by basal competitive exclusion from those caused by trophic interactions in a multi‐trophic ecosystem (basal producers, intermediate and top consumers). I compared food webs where basal species either show diffuse (all species compete with each other identically: no within guild extinctions following primary extinction) or asymmetric competition (unequal interspecific competition: within guild extinctions are possible). Basal competitive exclusion drives extra extinction cascades across all trophic levels, with the effect amplified in larger ecosystems, though varying connectance has little impact on results. Secondary extinction patterns based on the relative abundance of the species lost in the primary extinction differ qualitatively between diffuse and asymmetric competition. Removing asymmetric basal species with low (high) abundance triggers fewer (more) secondary extinctions throughout the whole food web than removing diffuse basal species. Rare asymmetric competitors experience less pressure from consumers compared to rare diffuse competitors. Simulations revealed that diffuse basal species are never involved in extinction cascades, regardless of the trophic level of a primary extinction, while asymmetric competitors were. This work highlights important qualitative differences in extinction patterns that arise when different assumptions are made about the form of direct competition in multi‐trophic food webs.

Global versus local extinction in a network model of plant–pollinator communities

The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of additional extinctions; the complex interactions that comprise ecological communities make the dynamics and impacts of such a cascade challenging to predict. Previous studies have typically considered global extinctions, where a species cannot re-enter a community once it is lost. However, in some cases a species only becomes locally extinct, and may be able to reinvade from surrounding communities. Here, we use a dynamic, Boolean network model of plant–pollinator community assembly to analyze the differences between global and local extinction events in mutualistic communities. As expected, we find that compared to global extinctions, communities respond to local extinctions with lower biodiversity loss, and less variation in topological network properties. We demonstrate that in the face of global extinctions, larger communities suffer greater biodiversity loss than smaller communities when similar proportions of species are lost. Conversely, smaller communities suffer greater loss in the face of local extinctions. We show that targeting species with the most interacting partners causes more biodiversity loss than random extinctions in the case of global, but not local, extinctions. These results extend our understanding of how mutualistic communities respond to species loss, with implications for community management and conservation efforts.

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

Coextinction and Persistence of Dependent Species in a Changing World

The extinction of a single species is rarely an isolated event. Instead, dependent parasites, commensals, and mutualist partners (affiliates) face the risk of coextinction as their hosts or partners decline and fail. Species interactions in ecological networks can transmit the effects of primary extinctions within and between trophic levels, causing secondary extinctions and extinction cascades. Documenting coextinctions is complicated by ignorance of host specificity, limitations of historical collections, incomplete systematics of affiliate taxa, and lack of experimental studies. Host shifts may reduce the rate of coextinctions, but they are poorly understood. In the absence of better empirical records of coextinctions, statistical models estimate the rates of past and future coextinctions, and based on primary extinctions and interactions among species, network models explore extinction cascades. Models predict and historical evidence reveals that the threat of coextinction is influenced by both host and affiliate traits and is exacerbated by other threats, including habitat loss, climate change, and invasive species.

Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence

Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.

Forest fragmentation reduces parasitism via species loss at multiple trophic levels

Although there is accumulating evidence from artificially assembled communities that reductions of species diversity result in diminished ecosystem functioning, it is not yet clear how real-world changes in diversity affect the flow of energy between trophic levels in multi-trophic contexts. In central Argentina, forest fragmentation has led to species loss of plants, herbivore and parasitoid insects, decline in trophic processes (herbivory and parasitism), and food web contraction. Here we examine if and how loss of parasitoid species following fragmentation causes decreased parasitism rates, by analyzing food webs of leaf miners and parasitoids from 19 forest fragments of decreasing size. We asked three questions: Do reductions in parasitoid richness following fragmentation directly or indirectly affect parasitism rate? Are changes in community parasitism rate driven by changes in the parasitism rate of individual leaf miner species, or changes in leaf miner composition, or both? Which traits of species determine the effects of food web change on parasitism rates? We found that habitat loss initiated a bottom-up cascade of extinctions from plants to leaf miners to parasitoids, with reductions in parasitoid richness ultimately driving decreases in parasitism rates. This relationship between parasitoid richness and parasitism depended on changes in the relative abundance (but not occurrence) of leaf miners such that parasitoid-rich fragments were dominated by leaf miner species that supported high rates of parasitism. Surprisingly, we found that only a small subset of species in the food web could account for much of the increase in parasitism with parasitoid richness: lepidopteran miners that attained exceptionally high densities in some fragments and their largely specialist parasitoids. How specialized a parasitoid is, and the relative abundance of leaf miners, had important effects on the diversity-parasitism rate relationship, but not other leaf miner traits including trophic breadth, body size, and mine shape. Our results show that a full understanding of the functional consequences of perturbations and species loss requires both a multi-trophic perspective and a trait-based approach, which together capture some of the biological complexity of natural systems.

Indirect commensalism promotes persistence of secondary consumer species

Local species extinctions may lead to, often unexpected, secondary extinctions. To predict these, we need to understand how indirect effects, within a network of interacting species, affect the ability of species to persist. It has been hypothesized that the persistence of some predators depends on other predator species that suppress competitively dominant prey to low levels, allowing a greater diversity of prey species, and their predators, to coexist. We show that, in experimental insect communities, the absence of one parasitoid wasp species does indeed lead to the extinction of another that is separated by four trophic links. These results highlight the importance of a holistic systems perspective to biodiversity conservation and the necessity to include indirect population dynamic effects in models for predicting cascading extinctions in networks of interacting species.

Species-rich ecosystems are vulnerable to cascading extinctions in an increasingly variable world.

Global warming leads to increased intensity and frequency of weather extremes. Such increased environmental variability might in turn result in increased variation in the demographic rates of interacting species with potentially important consequences for the dynamics of food webs. Using a theoretical approach, we here explore the response of food webs to a highly variable environment. We investigate how species richness and correlation in the responses of species to environmental fluctuations affect the risk of extinction cascades. We find that the risk of extinction cascades increases with increasing species richness, especially when correlation among species is low. Initial extinctions of primary producer species unleash bottom-up extinction cascades, especially in webs with specialist consumers. In this sense, species-rich ecosystems are less robust to increasing levels of environmental variability than species-poor ones. Our study thus suggests that highly species-rich ecosystems such as coral reefs and tropical rainforests might be particularly vulnerable to increased climate variability.

The karst ecology of the Bakwena Cave (Gauteng)

The Bakwena Cave houses a variety of organisms that form an intricate and interdependent food web. This cave is utilised as a permanent roost by a colony of Natal clinging bats. The bat guano and allochthonous plant material that fall into the cave from outside, form the basis of the ecology inside the cave which may be considered a typical example of a detritus ecosystem. Decomposers such as bacteria and fungi are responsible for the decay of the guano and plant detritus which, in turn, are utilised by several organisms, including nematodes and mites, as food source. These animals form the next trophic level which is utilised by predatory arthropods as food source. The Bakwena Cave is one of the few dolomitic caves in South Africa that provide access to the water table. The groundwater houses several types of organisms, including bacteria, fungi and animals – primarily nematodes and crustaceans. The Bakwena Cave is also the type locality for freshwater amphipods in Southern Africa. This unique and sensitive ecosystem is primarily dependent on bat guano. The grassland surrounding the cave is utilised by the bats as foraging area and is currently threatened by urban development and the resulting habitat fragmentation and destruction. A cascade of extinctions of the cave-dwelling organisms will follow if the bats abandon the cave.

Wild dog dreaming: love and extinction

We are living in the midst of the Earth's sixth great extinction event, the first one caused by a single species: our own. In Dog Dreaming, Deborah Bird Rose explores what constitutes an ethical relationship with nonhuman others in this era of loss. She asks, Who are we, as a species? How do we fit into the Earth's systems? Amidst so much change, how do we find our way into new stories to guide us? Rose explores these questions in the form of a dialogue between science and the humanities. Drawing on her conversations with Aboriginal people, for whom questions of extinction are up-close and very personal, Rose develops a mode of exposition that is dialogical, philosophical, and open-ended.An inspiration for Rose and a touchstone throughout her book is the endangered dingo of Australia. The dingo is not the first animal to face extinction, but its story is particularly disturbing because the threat to its future is being actively engineered by humans. The brazenness with which the dingo is being wiped out sheds valuable, and chilling, light on the likely fate of countless other animal and plant species.People save what they observed Michael Soule, the great conservation biologist. We must ask whether we, as humans, are capable of loving and therefore capable of caring for the animals and plants that are disappearing in a cascade of extinctions. Wild Dog Dreaming engages this question, and the result is a bold account of the entangled ethics of love, contingency, and desire.

Robustness to secondary extinctions: Comparing trait-based sequential deletions in static and dynamic food webs

The loss of species from ecological communities can unleash a cascade of secondary extinctions, the risk and extent of which are likely to depend on the traits of the species that are lost from the community. To identify species traits that have the greatest impact on food web robustness to species loss we here subject allometrically scaled, dynamical food web models to several deletion sequences based on species’ connectivity, generality, vulnerability or body mass. Further, to evaluate the relative importance of dynamical to topological effects we compare robustness between dynamical and purely topological models. This comparison reveals that the topological approach overestimates robustness in general and for certain sequences in particular. Top-down directed sequences have no or very low impact on robustness in topological analyses, while the dynamical analysis reveals that they may be as important as high-impact bottom-up directed sequences. Moreover, there are no deletion sequences that result, on average, in no or very few secondary extinctions in the dynamical approach. Instead, the least detrimental sequence in the dynamical approach yields an average robustness similar to the most detrimental (non-basal) deletion sequence in the topological approach. Hence, a topological analysis may lead to erroneous conclusions concerning both the relative and the absolute importance of different species traits for robustness. The dynamical sequential deletion analysis shows that food webs are least robust to the loss of species that have many trophic links or that occupy low trophic levels. In contrast to previous studies we can infer, albeit indirectly, that secondary extinctions were triggered by both bottom-up and top-down cascades.

The susceptibility of species to extinctions in model communities

Despite the fact that the loss of a species from a community has the potential to cause a dramatic decline in biodiversity, for example through cascades of secondary extinctions, little is known about the factors contributing to the extinction risk of any particular species. Here we expand earlier modeling approaches using a dynamic food-web model that accounts for bottom-up as well as top-down effects. We investigate what factors influence a species’ extinction risk and time to extinction of the non-persistent species. We identified three basic properties that affect a species’ risk of extinction. The highest extinction risk is born by species with (1) low energy input (e.g. high trophic level), (2) susceptibility to the loss of energy pathways (e.g. specialists with few prey species) and (3) dynamic instability (e.g. low Hill exponent and reliance on homogeneous energy channels when feeding on similarly sized prey). Interestingly, and different from field studies, we found that the trophic level and not the body mass of a species influences its extinction risk. On the other hand, body mass is the single most important factor determining the time to extinction of a species, resulting in small species dying first. This suggests that in the field the trophic level might have more influence on the extinction risk than presently recognized.

Complexity at large

Complexity at large

Rescuing ecosystems from extinction cascades through compensatory perturbations

Food-web perturbations stemming from climate change, overexploitation, invasive species and habitat degradation often cause an initial loss of species that results in a cascade of secondary extinctions, posing considerable challenges to ecosystem conservation efforts. Here, we devise a systematic network-based approach to reduce the number of secondary extinctions using a predictive modelling framework. We show that the extinction of one species can often be compensated by the concurrent removal or population suppression of other specific species, a counterintuitive effect not previously tested in complex food webs. These compensatory perturbations frequently involve long-range interactions that are not evident from local predator-prey relationships. In numerous cases, even the early removal of a species that would eventually go extinct is found to significantly reduce the number of cascading extinctions. These compensatory perturbations only exploit resources available in the system, and illustrate the potential of human intervention combined with predictive modelling for ecosystem management.

Cascading extinctions, functional complementarity, and selection in two-trophic-level model communities: A trait-based mechanistic approach

The influence of diversity on ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services is now well established. Yet predictive mechanistic models that link species traits and community-level processes remain scarce, particularly for multitrophic systems. Here we revisit MacArthur's classical consumer resource model and develop a trait-based approach to predict the effects of consumer diversity on cascading extinctions and aggregated ecosystem processes in a two-trophic-level system. We show that functionally redundant efficient consumers generate top-down cascading extinctions. This counterintuitive result reveals the limits of the functional redundancy concept to predict the consequences of species deletion. Our model also predicts that the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship is different for different ecosystem processes and depends on the range of variation of consumer traits in the regional species pool, which determines the sign of selection effects. Lastly, competition among resources and consumer generalism both weaken complementarity effects, which suggests that selection effects may prevail at higher trophic levels. Our work emphasizes the potential of trait-based approaches for transforming biodiversity and ecosystem functioning research into a more predictive science.