Cargo Demand Research Articles

Analyzing the Impact of Pandemics on Air Passenger and Cargo Demands in South Korea

글로벌 팬데믹 사태는 항공 수요에 부정적인 영향을 끼치는 요소 중 하나다. 글로벌 팬데믹으로 인해 한국은 2020년과 2021년의 항공 승객 수가 2019년 대비 각각 68.1%와 47% 감소했다. 본 연구는 지난 20여년 동안 발생한 4대 팬데믹 특성을 분석, 전염병의 영향을 연구하는 것을 목표로 한다. SARS, H1N1, MERS 및 COVID-19의 발생기간 동안 한국의 항공 여객 및 화물 수요에 대한 실증 데이터를 활용하여 영향력을 분석한다. 또한 머신러닝 회귀 모델을 구축하여 향후 발생할 다른 전염병 대한 항공 수요를 예측하고자 한다. 연구 결과, 전염병이 항공 운항편수와 승객에 부정적인 영향을 미친다는 사실을 발견하였다. 반면화물 수송에는 긍정적인 영향을 미친다는 분석 결과를 도출하였다. 본 분석에 활용되는 회귀 모델은 팬데믹 기간 동안 항공수요를 예측하는 데 평균 86.8%의 기능을 보였다. 또한 본 연구는 특정 국가의 팬데믹 상황보다 전 세계적인 팬데믹 상황이 항공 운송 수요에 더 많은 영향을 미친다는 것을 보여준다.

우리나라 택배업체의 효율성 분석에 관한 연구

This study has analyzed the efficiency of courier companies in Korea in order to provide direction for growth in the fierce competitive market. Based on a reliable source of data, 15 companies are selected as Decision Making Units. In terms of the analysis, four models are adopted. For static analysis, CCR, BCC, and super-efficiency levels are suggested. For dynamic analysis, Malmquist productivity index are analyzed. The result of the CCR and BCC analysis suggest that 8 companies that found a niche market are found to be efficient. They had competitive edge on specialized areas of business sectors. Super efficiency analysis also showed 12 companies to be efficient which means that in the times of Covid19, companies enjoyed the opportunity of growing cargo demands from Covid19 are found to be operated efficiently. From malmquist analysis, there are companies found to be improved and degraded in terms of efficiency levels. It is obvious that traditional logistics companies with size and network still remain competitive while others either enjoy or struggle to compete and survive in the Korean market.

Shipper economic demand function for cargo port services: A note

An important relationship in cargo handling at cargo ports is the shipper economic demand function for cargo port services, which relates the demand for cargo port services to the prices charged by cargo ports and the cargo demand from shippers at other cargo ports. To our knowledge, such a function has heretofore not been rigorously derived in the maritime economics literature. This note derives a shipper economic demand function for cargo port services to be provided for shipper cargoes while in a cargo port. Using the demand function, it is shown how the price elasticity of demand for port services by users of port services can be derived.

Delivery Invoice Information Classification System for Joint Courier Logistics Infrastructure

With the growth of the online market, demand for logistics and courier cargo is increasing rapidly. Accordingly, in the case of urban areas, road congestion and environmental problems due to cargo vehicles are mainly occurring. The joint courier logistics system, a plan to solve this problem, aims to establish an efficient logistics transportation system by utilizing one joint logistics delivery terminal by several logistics and delivery companies. However, several courier companies use different types of courier invoices. Such a system has a problem of information data transmission interruption. Therefore, the data processing process was systematically analyzed, a practically feasible methodology was devised, and delivery invoice information processing standards were established for this. In addition, the importance of this paper can be emphasized in terms of data processing in the logistics sector, which is expected to grow rapidly in the future. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the implementation of the logistics joint delivery terminal system in the future. And it can be used as a basis for securing the operational reliability of the joint courier logistics system.

Study on improvement in logistics industry in Gangwon province: Focusing on Yangyang International Airport

This study aims to contribute to analyze the logistics competitiveness of Yangyang International Airport and suggest improvement plans for airport logistics experts to use them as basic data to discover the actual factors for revitalizing the Gangwon-do logistics industry. Therefore, the importance and performance level of airport logistics competitiveness factors were investigated and differences were analyzed. The result shows "location", "local cargo demand", " specialized cargo supra-structure", and "government support policy" were surveyed as "focus" areas with high importance awareness but low performance.

The air cargo market overview

Measured by the value of goods, about one-third of all international trade is moved by air. It stands for a big chunk of the transport market and global GDP, playing a crucial role in moving products of high value in relation to their weight, but also the backbone of overnight shipping and enabling e-commerce growth. This places air cargo as very dependent on overall economic deviations. As the world slowly exits the global pandemic state, each part of the aviation industry should be subject to analyses that confirm or contradict previous forecasts, thus helping to make correct business decisions by the relevant entities in the aviation industry. The following article is devoted to the analysis of the air cargo market. As a starting point, the article shows a general overview of the world's economy by pointing out the main variables that impact demand for air cargo and presenting forecasts on some of those. General air cargo market overview is the next subject. This part shows the latest trends connected with the general aviation market and the cargo part, outlining the general look. An overview of forecasts for the aviation market, coming from aircraft manufacturers, is the last of the analytical parts of this article, describing each entity's market outlook. Presented analyses were later used to determine trends most likely to show in coming years. The accurate description of those allowed for creating a coherent forecast of the air cargo market, with the calculation of actual cargo tonne-kilometers for oncoming years using a simple, multivariate forecasting method based on creating a historical data-driven model. The article concludes with a summary that provides an overview of the covered subjects.

Exploring factors affecting airport selection during the COVID-19 pandemic from air cargo carriers’ perspective through the triangular fuzzy Dombi-Bonferroni BWM methodology

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unexpected demand for air cargo in terms of rapid mobility of critical basic needs. Air cargo carriers aim to maximize their profits by taking advantage of the current demand and using their limited capacity in the right place. At this point, some of the qualifications of the airports in the places where demand plays a crucial role in this decision of the carriers. Thus, evaluating the factors considered in the airport selection for air cargo carriers during the COVID-19 period is curious. This study proposes a triangular fuzzy Dombi-Bonferroni best-worst method (BWM) framework with vast flexibility to establish the priority preferences of factors considered in selecting airports. The fuzzy BWM model becomes a superior decision support system by combining the Bonferroni mean operator's ability to consider interrelationships between attributes and the flexibility of the Dombi operator. In this sense, we highlight eighteen criteria based on five airport aspects: location, physical features, performance, costs, and reputation. Findings reveal that the foremost aspects are location and costs, whereas the most crucial factors are airport charges and handling charges. The study suggests that airports should follow a low-price policy for airport-related charges without compromising their sustainability to have a share of the increasing number of air cargo flights, especially during the COVID-19 period, when airline passenger flights are decreased. The study is crucial in deciding the strategy and policy of air cargo carriers and airports during the pandemic period.

Assessing Hyperloop Transport Capacity Under Moving-Block and Virtual Coupling Operations

The Hyperloop is a concept of a ground transportation system consisting of capsules traveling at very high-speeds in near-vacuum tubes. The Hyperloop aims to be a fast, cheap, and sustainable alternative to short-haul flights and high-speed rail. The small pod size requires very high frequencies to respond to future high levels of passenger and cargo demands. Media and representatives of the emerging Hyperloop industry acclaim the Hyperloop as a very capacity effective transport system, however there is no clear scientific evidence proving that. A theoretical investigation is therefore necessary to understand which capacity the Hyperloop could safely provide. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the capacity that the Hyperloop can offer for several operational scenarios and different signalling systems, including Moving-Block and the advanced concept of Virtual Coupling. Results show that Moving-Block could achieve required transport capacity levels only if pods could use high deceleration rates likely to be unsafe and uncomfortable to passengers. Virtual Coupling is instead observed to be a more satisfactory operational concept that could provide a higher transport capacity while respecting safety and comfort standards if reliable pod platooning technologies are available.

Determinants of Air Cargo Demand in The European Region

Air cargo demand estimation is crucial for every part of the air industry for determining policies, making decisions on investments, pricing, marketing, etc. This study analyses factors affecting the air cargo demand of the European Region (23 countries) where no studies were found by making use of the two-step generalized method of moments (GMM). The effects of Total Airport Investments, Consumer Price Index, GDP Per Capita, Population, Foreign Trade Volume, Industrial Production Index, and Exchange Rate on Air Cargo Demand were examined with the data set covering the years between 2009 and 2018. The findings indicated that previous air cargo demand has explanatory power on current demand, and there was an inverse relationship between the change in the consumer price index and the amount of cargo. In addition, the panel regression estimator indicates a positive relationship between Foreign Trade and Industrial Production Index. The results show that price stability is of great importance not only from a macroeconomic perspective but micro economically also.

Integrated aircraft tail assignment and cargo routing problem with through cargo consideration

Traditionally, freight airlines assign individual aircraft to each flight and sequentially determine the cargo itineraries for each order. This may limit the option of cargo itineraries, and lead to mismatches between cargo demands and freighter capacities. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the concepts of through cargo connection and short through cargo connection. A through cargo connection requires cargoes to stay on the same aircraft between two connected flights, and a short through cargo connection is a through connection that needs less time than the standard cargo transshipment time. By considering the through cargo connections and short through cargo connections, we can generate the complete set of all possible cargo itineraries, so as to improve the overall schedule efficiency and robustness, and reduce the cargo ground handling cost. In this paper, two mathematical models (the connection- and string-based models) are proposed to solve the aircraft tail assignment problem (TAP) and cargo routing problem (CRP) simultaneously with through cargo considerations. We developed a column generation framework to solve the LP relaxation of the string-based model, and a diving heuristic with reoptimization strategy to find a good IP solution in a reasonable time. The proposed solution methods are tested using industrial cases from the largest freight airline in China. The computational experiments revealed that the integrated models could bring up to 5.04%∼10.31% profit growth, and the through cargo savings are tripled compared with the baseline solutions. By analyzing the computational performance of two models, we recommend that airlines can apply connection-based model only if the problems are not very large and the computational time is sufficient; otherwise, the string-based model is more robust in terms of problem scales and computational time.

Gemlik Körfezi Limanları İçin Konteyner Kargo Talep Tahmini

A large part of world trade is carried out by maritime transport. In addition, ports are the only gates of maritime transport to international trade. In this sense, capacity and demand planning for ports, which are an important node of maritime transport, is necessary for both port operators and other logistics enterprises such as maritime trade fleets, foreign trade enterprises that are parties to international trade, intermediary institutions, third, fourth and fifth parties, and government institutions that It provides very important contributions in making efficiency analyzes and creating investment plans for. In this study, as stated above, container cargo demand forecasting analysis was carried out for the ports of Gemlik Bay, which is one of the important centers opened to foreign trade and located in the Marmara Region of the Republic of Turkey, in order to shed light on the capacity and investment plans for the port operators and other parties For this purpose, container handling data for the ports of Gemlik Bay between 2004-2021 were used as the dependent variable (estimate variable) and again for the same years, Turkey's gross national product data, import and export data, population amount and total container amount handled. were considered as independent variables and annual container handling data of Gemlik Bay ports have been forecasted until 2028 by multiple regression analysis method with 93,1% adjusted R square value.

Vessel Deployment and De-Hubbing in Maritime Networks: A Case Study on Colombo Port and Its Feeder Market

Generally, vessels are deployed as hub-and-spoke networks to achieve high slot utilization and cost efficiency for shipping lines in global maritime container shipping networks. At the Port of Colombo, most transhipment containers originate from and are destined for Indian ports, the export/import container volume of which has been rapidly increasing, and Indian ports have been developed to accommodate vessel enlargement. In such circumstances, the partial or complete abandonment of a hub (Colombo port) in this region is expected, which is known as “de-hubbing.” This study aims to clarify the impact of port developments and an increase in container cargo demand from the source country on maritime network selection from the perspective of shipping lines. We develop a mixed integer linear programming model to describe vessel deployment, including transhipment via the Colombo port and direct shipment in Indian ports. As a result of the analysis, the number of direct services to Indian ports is expected to increase when the cargo demand of Indian ports increases and the port development of Indian ports is conducted. The progress of the de-hubbing phenomenon decreases vessel size at Colombo port because the container demand at Indian ports is mostly satisfied by newly deployed trunk lines to Indian ports. This study suggests that if Colombo port expects to maintain its hub status, it is critical to consider various other incentives to attract and retain mainline carriers in addition to expanding its port infrastructure. Similarly, if India expects to receive direct calls from mainlines, it is important not only to develop their port infrastructure but also to increase their cargo demand.

Technical and economic feasibility study for offshore transshipment operation

Intercontinental cargo transport is carried out mainly through the waterway modal, increasing the number of vessels and the deadweight of ships. This means that onshore ports cannot stand the cargo demands and, to make them competitive in this reality, a very high investment is needed, and their expansion can produce serious environmental impact. Thus, it is necessary to search for alternatives that facilitate the flow of vessels in the regional and world scenario. Hence, the present work conducts a technical and economic feasibility study of a direct offshore transshipment operation of solid bulk cargo of vegetable origin at the Organized Port of Vila do Conde, in Brazil, using the Net Present Value (NPV) methods, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback. In the study, three scenarios were considered, each of which had its particularity related to the operating life and the amount of cargo handled. Therefore, it was noted that offshore transshipment is more viable in two scenarios – the project's useful life is up to 14 years, so that the investment of capital in an onshore installation is more viable. Furthermore, it was found that, only in the worst-case scenario, offshore transshipment overlapped the other activity in any period of its useful life.

An analysis of the Chinese scheduled freighter network during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 caused the vast majority of passenger flights to be grounded, but the crisis raised the importance of the network of dedicated cargo flights and, therefore, interest in its development. This paper aims to evaluate the Chinese scheduled freighter network (CSFN) via its topological properties and to explore its changes following the COVID-19 pandemic. Using spatial analysis with the complex network theory (CNT), the paper found that the CSFN displays small-world and scale-free network properties, similar to that of air passenger network. Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Nanjing are the dominant national hubs in the CSFN because they host the headquarters of many e-commerce giant enterprises and have relatively underutilized airport capacities. The CSFN has improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, with increased network average degree, clustering coefficient, and closeness, and reduced average path. These improvements were mainly driven by major hub cities whose centralities had been strengthened with more route connections. Since China's air passenger traffic had quickly restored in the second half of 2020, we argue that the changes in the CSFN during COVID-19 were unlikely to be a result of the substitution effect between freighter and passenger aircraft. It was more likely a result of the higher air cargo demand during the pandemic and airlines' realisation of the importance of freighter operations in China.

Assessing cargo demand through matrix recovery correspondence using different data

Assessing cargo demand through matrix recovery correspondence using different data

Spatial expansion regular pattern and driving factors of estuarine and coastal harbors

The port coastline is an important part of China's coastal zone, and changes to the port space and coastline profoundly impact the management and governance of China's coastal zone. Although port space has been widely examined, the regular pattern and driving factors of coastal port space expansion from a land use patch perspective remain unclear. We selected typical estuarine and coastal harbors and analyzed the basic regularity and driving factors of their spatial expansion using remote sensing and geographic information system technology. The regular patterns of estuarine and coastal harbors showed that because of their different locations, estuarine harbors have experienced an estuarine harbor stage, coexistence stage in estuarine and coastal harbors, and deep-water harbor stage. Furthermore, coastal harbors have experienced a coastal harbor stage, urban fringe, and deep-water harbor stage. Berths at ports, wharf lengths, port areas, port scopes, and port cargo demands also show phased characteristics. Analysis of the driving factors showed that in the early stage of port formation, geographical location significantly impacts estuarine harbors, with less pronounced effects on coastal harbors. Cargo demand has significant effects on the entire port expansion process. The influence of port engineering technology on coastal harbors was greater than that on estuarine harbors during the rapid port expansion stage. The impact of large-scale ships on estuarine harbors was greater than that on coastal harbors. This study provides information on port spatial expansion theories, which can aid port enterprises to better understand the regular pattern and driving factors of port development to improve development plans. Our findings also provide a reference for governmental agencies at all levels to formulate port planning, promulgate management policies, and provide basic data for future port and urban development in China.

Uncertanties and Risk Analysis on Ports Construction Projects Considering Technological and Market Strategic Factors

This article appropriates a new methodology for evaluating port projects involving not only economic analysis, but also strategic factors, technological and market, wich provide greater security and assertiveness on the search for the development of a Hub Port model as an option to optimize the logistics of port operations. To achieve the objectives of the proposal, a technical and economic analysis model was developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the project with the inclusion of technological features (deep of ships, modes of transport linking the port to its region of land influence, expansion area) and market components (cargo demands, free trade zone, distance from the main centers of world trade) that decisively interfere in the attractiveness of the project. Linked to this proposal, a risk analysis was carried out, including uncertainties involving economic and strategic aspects, with market and technological variables. To achieve the objectives of the study, the Monte Carlo method operated by the software “@RiskTM” was used, where the analyzes of positive and negative interferences in the project were carried out. To evaluate the proposed methodology, it was applied in two cases studies of the feasibility of a new logistics platform in Brazil and Africa, with the implementation of an offshore cargo concentrator port. One was in the State of Pará, in northern Brazil, and the other in Dakar, Senegal, which can integrate the entire South America and Africa, respectivaly. The results of those analysis show very favorable indicators for the implementation of the proposed projects. Considering that, strategic factors introduced in the study, the greatest influences were: transport modes that link the port to the land influence zone and the draft of the ships. For the offshore port of Pará, strategic factors boosted the viability result by approximately 55% for a 95% probability of success and for Dakar, in Africa, the results were 100%, both for a 14% rate and a life span of 30 years showing that strategic factors are elements very importatants, as they produced almost 100% and 70% elasticity in the results, respectivaly, so they should be considered in feasibility studies of hub ports in addition to tradicioanl economic analysis.

Spatial and temporal dimensions of container traffic in Nigerian seaports

Generally speaking, cargo demand traffic forecasts are needed tools to rationalize the investment decisions in ports. However, little studies have been carried out in determining the magnitude of container cargo traffic at Nigerian ports, this creates a lacuna that needs to be filled up. The purpose of this study is to ascertain the spatial and temporal dimensions of container traffic in Nigerian seaports from 1990 to 2017. The study uses a survey design and employed descriptive and multivariate statistics to analyze the data. It demonstrates that Nigeria imports lots of commodities in containers than it exports in containers because most of the country’s exports are crude oil and non-containerized goods. Thus, the reason for traffic congestion at the ports and the high cost paid by Nigerian shippers for imported containerized cargo. The study further showed that both imported and exported container traffic had a positive trend in the time series. From the findings, we have shown the need for understanding the magnitude of container traffic at the ports as it helps Ports Authorities in operational decisions regarding port capacity utilization.

Exploring the factors influencing the cost-effective design of hub-and-spoke and point-to-point networks in maritime transport using a bi-level optimization model

Hub-and-spoke (HS) networks are cost-effective because they allow the realization of economies of density. However, the cost of point-to-point (PP) networks may be lower than that of HS networks when certain conditions, such as cargo demand, bunker price, vessel size, and the shippers’ value of time change. This study explores the factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of HS and PP networks. We developed a mixed-integer programming model that allows for bi-level optimization between shipping lines and shippers. As a case study, we applied it to Chinese and Japanese ports, with both HS and PP networks. We found that high cargo demand increases the use of PP networks while enlarging vessel size increases the use of HS networks. These findings enable us to predict the occurrence of hubbing—shifting from a PP to an HS network—and de-hubbing—shifting from an HS to a PP network.

The impact of the 2020 global sulfur cap on maritime CO2 emissions

Purpose As of January 1, 2020, the upper limit of sulfur emissions outside emission control areas decreased from 3.5% to 0.5%. This paper aims to present some of the challenges associated with the implementation of the sulfur cap and investigates its possible side effects as regard the drive of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Even though it would appear that the two issues (desulfurization and decarbonization) are unrelated, it turns out that there are important cross-linkages between them, which have not been examined, at least by the regulators. Design/methodology/approach A literature review and a qualitative risk assessment of possible CO2 contributors are presented first. A cost-benefit analysis is then conducted on a specific case study, so as to assess the financial, as well as the environmental impact of two main compliance choices, in terms of CO2 and sulfur oxide. Findings From a financial perspective, the choice of a scrubber ranks better comparing to a marine gas oil (MGO) choice because of the price difference between MGO and heavy fuel oil. However, and under different price scenarios, the scrubber choice remains sustainable only for big vessels. It is noticed that small containerships cannot outweigh the capital cost of a scrubber investment and are more sensitive in different fuel price scenarios. From an environmental perspective, scrubber ranks better than MGO in the assessment of overall emissions. Research limitations/implications Fuel price data in this paper was based on 2019 data. As this paper was being written, the COVID-19 pandemic created a significant upheaval in global trade flows, cargo demand and fuel prices. This made any attempt to perform even a rudimentary ex-post evaluation of the 2020 sulfur cap virtually impossible. Due to limited data, such an evaluation would be extremely difficult even under normal circumstances. This paper nevertheless made a brief analysis to investigate possible COVID-19 impacts. Practical implications The main implication is that the global sulfur cap will increase CO2 emissions. In that sense, this should be factored in the IMO greenhouse gas discussion. Originality/value According to the knowledge of the authors, no analysis examining the impact of the 2020 sulfur cap on CO2 emissions has yet been conducted in the scientific literature.