Cargo Cycles Research Articles

Operative strategy in tanker (dirty) shipping

Tanker (dirty) operational areas are identified with the help of itineraries and their profitability is estimated with time charter equivalent (TCE, $/day). The level is heavily influenced by the way waiting between cargo cycles is handled. Four alternatives are tried, planned (‘optimal’), simulated and two observed ones, with no or all-inclusive waiting. The choice of alternative is unlikely to upset area ranking seriously. Observed itineraries without waiting are selected. Small vessel size leads to fragmented markets and much variation in TCE. Endemic tonnage oversupply in the Far East depresses TCE in the Panamax, Aframax and Suezmax (PAS) segments. The barrier effect of canals is visible. The Worldscale system pays for port time which raises the paydays/ballastdays ratio and makes itineraries consisting of short cargo cycles attractive. Worldwide itineraries give mediocre TCEs.

The geographical foundations of tanker (dirty) shipping

A simulation model of individual ship movements demonstrates that distance-weighted regional imbalances of tonnage supply and demand are powerful estimators of tanker rates that are converted to approximate time charter equivalents. Statistical fit is acceptable to good when cargo cycles (ballast–load–cargo–discharge) are the units of observation, either individually or aggregated by region. Up to 30–40% higher average time charter equivalent is possible in an outstanding year, such as in 2004, when consistent use is made of this feature.