Objective. To develop a method for predicting the risk of developing lipoprotein metabolism disorders in persons 18-39 years of age. Material and methods. 137 healthy young people (33.6% (n=46) boys and 66.4 (n=91) girls) aged 20 [20;21] years were examined. Risk factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), physical examination, instrumental and laboratory diagnostics were evaluated. The level of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins (LDL), high-density lipoproteins, triglycerides in the blood serum was determined. Results. In the course of the study, a logistic regression model with a binary response and a logit communication function was built, which included the following statistically significant predictors: patient's gender, presence of burdened family history, LDL level and the value of the atherogenicity index. The threshold probability for this model (P0=0.43) was selected based on the results of ROC analysis. The area under the ROC curve was AUC=0.784 (95% CI: 0.689-0.878), sensitivity – 73%, specificity – 70%, classification accuracy – 71%. Conclusion. Risk factors of CVD are quite widespread among young people, and occurs with the same frequency, regardless of age. In young people, the incidence of 3 or more risk factors of CVD was 4.4%. The most significant prognostic factors associated with the development of lipoprotein metabolism disorders in people aged 18-39 years are male sex, the presence of burdened family history, LDL levels and the value of atherogenicity index.
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