Carcass Surveys Research Articles

Spatial modelling and estimation of mammals' mortalities by Pantanal 2020 megafires

Abstract Extreme wildfire events, such as the Pantanal 2020 megafires, are expected to become more common. Assessing the impacts of such extreme events on wildlife is imperative for conservation planning. Direct observation of carcasses can provide valuable information on how these impacts relate to spatial heterogeneity. Here, we use double‐observer carcass surveys to assess the numbers and spatial patterns of direct mortalities of medium‐ to large‐sized mammals resulting from the Pantanal 2020 megafires in a large reserve (1080 km2) in the northern Pantanal wetland. Accounting for imperfect detection, we model the spatial variation in mortality occurrence and abundance, testing the effects of habitat‐related variables and wildfire severity using multi‐species N‐mixture models. We found that 26 out of 27 species of medium and large‐sized mammals died from the fires with a mean estimate of around 49 thousand individuals. The most affected species included capuchin monkeys, agoutis, peccaries, tapirs, brocket deer, tamanduas, coatis and capybaras. Direct mortality of mammals by wildfires was affected by landscape factors related to species habitats, species traits (probably related to escape or refuge strategies), and the intensity of the wildfires. Mortalities presented a general positive relationship with non‐flooded forests (a fire‐sensitive habitat in Pantanal) and with the severity of wildfires. Artificial water bodies, a common landscape structure in Pantanal, had 7.5 times more deaths than other areas. Synthesis and applications: With the approach used, we were able to: (i) identify mortality hotspots associated with landscape features; (ii) simultaneously identify the most affected species and assess the average relationships for all the assemblage of medium‐ and large‐sized mammals. We discuss conservation and management actions in two contexts: species prioritization for rescuing and monitoring; and territory prioritization for fire prevention and fighting.

Remnant salmon life history diversity rediscovered in a highly compressed habitat.

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) display remarkable life history diversity, underpinning their ability to adapt to environmental change. Maintaining life history diversity is vital to the resilience and stability of Chinook salmon metapopulations, particularly under changing climates. However, the conditions that promote life history diversity are rapidly disappearing, as anthropogenic forces promote homogenization of habitats and genetic lineages. In this study, we use the highly modified Yuba River in California to understand if distinct genetic lineages and life histories still exist, despite reductions in spawning habitat and hatchery practicesthat have promoted introgression. There is currently a concerted effort to protect federally listed Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon populations, given that few wild populations still exist. Despite this, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the genetic and life history diversity of Chinook salmon present in the Yuba River. To understand this diversity, we collected migration timing data and GREB1L genotypes from hook-and-line, acoustic tagging, and carcass surveys of Chinook salmon in the Yuba River between 2009 and 2011. Variation in the GREB1L region of the genome is tightly linked with run timing in Chinook salmon throughout their range, but the relationship between this variation and entry on spawning grounds is little explored in California's Central Valley. We found that the date Chinook salmon crossed the lowest barrier to Yuba River spawning habitat (Daguerre Point Dam) was tightly correlated with their GREB1L genotype. Importantly, our study confirms that ESA-listed spring-run Chinook salmon are spawning in the Yuba River, promoting a portfolio of life history and genetic diversity, despite the highlycompressed habitat. This work highlights the need to identify and protect this life history diversity, especially in heavily impacted systems,to maintain healthy Chinook salmon metapopulations. Without protection, we run the risk of losing the last vestiges of important genetic variation.

Applying parentage methods to detect gravel augmentation effects on juvenile Chinook Salmon recruitment rates

AbstractQuantifiable measurement of habitat restoration effects on salmonid reproductive performance is limited, although it is necessary for evaluating whether population responses follow management actions. We investigated using close‐kin mark‐recapture methods to partition restoration effects within standard monitoring metrics of juvenile emigrants leaving the natal reach. This approach allowed for statistical comparison of relative juvenile capture rates (recruitment) from Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) naturally reproducing in gravel augmented (restored) and nonaugmented (unrestored) reaches of a highly managed California River. Genetic parentage techniques linked adult females that had spawned in augmented and nonaugmented spawning habitats with juvenile Chinook Salmon sampled the following spring at a trap located below the natal spawning area. Successful recruitment was documented from both augmented and nonaugmented habitats, with no statistical difference between the two habitat types. The capture rate per adult female was low (0.19–0.24 juveniles/female) compared to rates observed in other systems. Within the juvenile collections, most females in the study had 0 or 1 offspring observed; however, one female that spawned in a restored habitat had 25 offspring recovered at the trap. We modeled juvenile capture rates in relation to a range of biological and environmental variables including spawning habitat site, spawning habitat treatment (augmented and nonaugmented), annual spawner abundance, year spawned, female fork length, spawning and hatch day, and flow maximum and variance. There was an inverse relationship between annual adult abundance (escapement obtained from carcass surveys) and recruitment (juvenile recoveries at trap), suggesting habitat limitation may be creating density‐dependent effects. Additionally, female body size was positively associated with recruitment, while spawning day and mean daily temperature were inversely associated with recruitment, suggesting that both biological and environmental factors independent of habitat influenced reproduction potential. This study provides evidence that habitat restoration could have an additive (incremental) positive effect on recruitment rate, informing hatchery management and restoration activities related to population recovery.

Mortality on the tracks: spatiotemporal patterns to rail‐kill in the Balule Nature Reserve, South Africa

The global dependency on railways as an economical and environmentally‐friendly option for transportation is steadily increasing. Despite their numerous benefits, railways and train traffic can have negative impacts on wildlife, particularly through the risk of mortality due to collisions with trains, entrapment in rails, or electrocution at overhead powerlines. In most cases, these impacts are under‐investigated, thus remain unmitigated. In this study, we describe patterns of rail‐mortality of the local fauna in Balule Nature Reserve, South Africa. In addition to exploring which species are most vulnerable to rail‐mortality, we explore the role that seasonal variation, the daily activity patterns of the species, and the surrounding habitat type have on the occurrence of wildlife‐rail‐mortality. From 25 May 2020–29 March 2021, we conducted carcass surveys over three 5 km railway segments, corresponding to the three dominant habitat types in the nature reserve: open grassland, open woodland and mixed shrubland. Each 5 km segment of railway was surveyed during the wet season (November–March) and the dry season (May–September) to account for seasonal variation. We recorded 99 rail‐kills, of which 29% were mammals, 26% were birds, 26% were reptiles, and 18% were amphibians. Mammal carcasses were found most frequently in the dry season, while amphibians were only detected in the wet season. Amphibian carcasses were all nocturnal species, while diurnal species dominated the bird carcasses found. Finally, most rail‐kill carcasses were found in mixed shrublands, while open woodlands had the lowest frequency of rail‐kill. The detrimental impacts of railway‐mortality on wildlife may be more pronounced in areas of high conservation value, such as nature reserves, and it is essential to study and mitigate these impacts, in order to foster successful co‐existence of wildlife and humans in the landscape.

Estimating mortality of small passerine birds colliding with wind turbines

As demand for renewable energy is rising, wind power development is rapidly growing worldwide. In its wake, conflicts arise over land use changes converting pristine nature into industrial power plants and its associated adverse biodiversity effects, crowned by one of the most obvious and deadly consequences: bird collisions. Most post-construction studies report low levels of avian mortality, but the majority of these studies are conducted primarily on larger birds. However, the diversity and abundance of small passerine birds are rarely reflected in the carcass surveys, although they in numeric proportion to their abundances should be the most numerous. The assumption that surveys find all carcasses seems thus rarely fulfilled and passerine mortality is likely to be grossly underestimated. We therefore designed an experiment with dummy birds to estimate mortality of small-bodied passerines and other small-bodied birds during post-construction surveys, tested in a medium-sized wind farm in western Norway. The wind farm was surveyed weekly during the migration periods by carcass survey teams using trained dogs to find killed birds. The dogs in the carcass surveys were more successful in locating the large than the small dummy birds (60–200 g), where they found 74% of the large dummy birds. Detecting the smaller category (5–24 g) was more demanding and the dogs only found 17% of the small dummy birds. Correcting the post-construction carcass survey outcome with the results from the experiment leads to an almost fourfold increase in estimated mortality rates, largely due to the low detection rate of the smallest category. The detection rates will naturally vary between wind farms, depending on the specific habitat characteristics, the efficiency of the carcass surveys and the search intervals. Thus, implementing a simple experiment with dummy birds to future post-construction surveys will produce more accurate estimates of the wind turbine mortality rates, and thus improve our understanding of the biodiversity effects of conforming to a more sustainable future.

Game bird carcasses are less persistent than raptor carcasses, but can predict raptor persistence dynamics.

Researchers conduct post-construction fatality monitoring (PCFM) to determine a wind energy facility's direct impacts on wildlife. Results of PCFM can be used to evaluate compliance with permitted take, potentially triggering adaptive management measures or offsetting mitigation; reducing uncertainty in fatality rates benefits wind companies, wildlife agencies, and other stakeholders. As part of PCFM, investigators conduct carcass persistence trials to account for imperfect detection during carcass surveys. In most PCFM studies, pen-raised game birds and other non-raptor surrogates have been used to estimate persistence of all large birds, including raptors. However, there is a growing body of evidence showing carcass persistence varies by bird type; raptor fatality estimates based on game bird carcass persistence may therefore be biased high. We conducted raptor and game bird carcass persistence field trials for 1 year at 6 wind energy facilities. Raptor carcass persistence varied by habitat and season, whereas the best-supported game bird model only included habitat. Raptor persistence probabilities were higher than corresponding game bird persistence probabilities for 13 of the 16 habitat and season combinations. Analysis of a curated large bird persistence meta-dataset showed that raptor carcass persistence varied by season, habitat, and region. The probability of persisting through a 30-day search interval ranged from 0.44 to 0.99 for raptors and from 0.16 to 0.79 for game birds. Raptor persistence was significantly higher than game bird persistence for 95% of the sampled strata. We used these carcass persistence estimates to develop linear mixed-effects models that predict raptor persistence probabilities based on estimated game bird persistence probabilities. Our scaling model provides an important statistical method to address gaps in raptor persistence data at sites in a broad range of landscape contexts in the continental United States and should be used to inform fatality estimation when site-specific raptor persistence data are limited or absent.

Another emerging threat to birds: avian mortality estimates from roadside transparent noise barrier collisions in South Korea

Summary Birds in flight are prone to collide with various transparent or reflective structures. While bird–window collision has been recognised as a critical conservation issue, collision with other transparent structures has been less understood. Noise barriers made of transparent materials are considered critical hazards for birds; however, little is known about the bird mortality they cause. We conducted the first nationwide-scale estimates of bird-collision mortality caused by transparent noise barriers (TNBs) along roads in the Republic of Korea. The total length of existing roadside transparent noise barriers was estimated at 1,416 km nationwide (as of 2018), and it had been increasing exponentially. Based on carcass surveys at 25 sites, daily mortality at the observed barriers was 0.335 ± 1.132 birds/km on average, and no difference in observed mortality was detected between both sides of a single barrier and between road types (i.e. local roads and motorways). Finally, we estimated that approximately 186,000 birds (95% confidence interval: 162,465–204,812 birds) are killed annually by collisions with roadside TNBs. As privately installed barriers were not considered in this study, the actual mortality is likely be higher than our estimates. Thus, collision with TNBs could become an emerging threat to avian conservation, especially in developing and urbanising regions around the world. As such structures are not formally recognised as conservation issues of importance, more systematic surveys aided by citizen science, both for the status of TNBs and bird-collision mortality, are needed in addition to management and mitigation policies.

Opening the black box of bird-window collisions: passive video recordings in a residential backyard.

Collisions with windows on buildings are a major source of bird mortality. The current understanding of daytime collisions is limited by a lack of empirical data on how collisions occur in the real world because most data are collected by recording evidence of mortality rather than pre-collision behaviour. Based on published literature suggesting a causal relationship between bird collision risk and the appearance of reflections on glass, the fact that reflections vary in appearance depending on viewing angle, and general principles of object collision kinematics, we hypothesized that the risk and lethality of window collisions may be related to the angle and velocity of birds' flight. We deployed a home security camera system to passively record interactions between common North American bird species and residential windows in a backyard setting over spring, summer and fall seasons over 2 years. We captured 38 events including 29 collisions and nine near-misses in which birds approached the glass but avoided impact. Only two of the collisions resulted in immediate fatality, while 23 birds flew away immediately following impact. Birds approached the glass at variable flight speeds and from a wide range of angles, suggesting that the dynamic appearance of reflections on glass at different times of day may play a causal role in collision risk. Birds that approached the window at higher velocity were more likely to be immediately killed or stunned. Most collisions were not detected by the building occupants and, given that most birds flew away immediately, carcass surveys would only document a small fraction of window collisions. We discuss the implications of characterizing pre-collision behaviour for designing effective collision prevention methods.

The effect of road-based mortality on a local population of newts along a narrow two-lane road in California

Numerous studies have documented high numbers of amphibians killed by vehicular strikes on roads. This direct mortality can cause population declines and extirpations, but in some cases the declines might be masked, initially, by large population sizes. Population viability analysis can help discern population trajectories and identify incipient declines. We applied this tool to a situation in Santa Clara County, California where a dead-on-the-road carcass survey in 2017 demonstrated that a large number of newts in the genus Taricha were being killed by vehicles using a small two-lane road (Alma Bridge Road) most likely during annual breeding migrations to a local reservoir (Lexington Reservoir). To help determine the effect of this road-based mortality on the California newt (T. torosa) population, we conducted a drift fence/pitfall trap array study on the road during the 2020–2021 breeding season. Drift fence/pitfall trap arrays were installed at six locations along a 6.6-km stretch of the road and daily surveys were conducted at these arrays over a 148-day period from mid-November to end of March. Daily traffic and precipitation data were also recorded to help inform timing of proposed mitigation efforts. Concurrently, a group of community scientists conducted a dead-on-the-road carcass survey over the entire 6.6-km study area. We calculated the number of adult newts attempting to cross Alma Bridge Road at the arrays and the associated road-based mortality rates. Then, we combined our array results with road mortality data provided by the community scientists to estimate the number of adult California newts attempting to cross the road and their mortality rates over the entire study area during the survey period. We then incorporated this data into a population viability model to determine whether this road-based mortality rate might, if left unabated, lead to a reduction in, and possibly the eventual extirpation of, the local population of T. torosa breeding in Lexington Reservoir. The model indicated that this population would be extirpated in approximately 92 years. Because the road has been in use for approximately 67 years, we discussed the possible reasons why this population is currently extant and experiencing this high level of road-based mortality.

The effects of powerlines on bustards: how best to mitigate, how best to monitor?

Summary Bustards comprise a highly threatened family of birds and, being relatively fast, heavy fliers with very limited frontal visual fields, are particularly susceptible to mortality at powerlines. These infrastructures can also displace them from immediately adjacent habitat and act as barriers, fragmenting their ranges. With geographically ever wider energy transmission and distribution grids, the powerline threat to bustards is constantly growing. Reviewing the published and unpublished literature up to January 2021, we found 2,774 records of bustard collision with powerlines, involving 14 species. Some studies associate powerline collisions with population declines. To avoid mortalities, the most effective solution is to bury the lines; otherwise they should be either routed away from bustard-frequented areas, or made redundant by local energy generation. When possible, new lines should run parallel to existing structures and wires should preferably be as low and thick as possible, with minimal conductor obstruction of vertical airspace, although it should be noted that these measures require additional testing. A review of studies finds limited evidence that ‘bird flight diverters’ (BFDs; devices fitted to wires to induce evasive action) achieve significant reductions in mortality for some bustard species. Nevertheless, dynamic BFDs are preferable to static ones as they are thought to perform more effectively. Rigorous evaluation of powerline mortalities, and effectiveness of mitigation measures, need systematic carcass surveys and bias corrections. Whenever feasible, assessments of displacement and barrier effects should be undertaken. Following best practice guidelines proposed with this review paper to monitor impacts and mitigation could help build a reliable body of evidence on best ways to prevent bustard mortality at powerlines. Research should focus on validating mitigation measures and quantifying, particularly for threatened bustards, the population effects of powerline grids at the national scale, to account for cumulative impacts on bustards and establish an equitable basis for compensation measures.

A Monte-Carlo based 3-D ballistics model for guiding bat carcass surveys using environmental and turbine operational data

Wind turbines cause direct mortality of bats through collision with turbine blades. However, accurate bat fatality estimates are unavailable for many facilities and regions due to lack of physically consistent guidance for surveying bat carcasses. We develop a Monte-Carlo based 3-D ballistics model to address this important gap to guide carcass surveys, help improve fatality estimates by combining it with statistical models and offer post-construction impact assessment guidelines. Monte-Carlo simulations account for variability of environmentally relevant parameters and subsequently the variability of the generated carcass fall zone distributions. The input parameters are bat characteristics, including mass, size, and drag coefficient, wind speed, turbine RPM, yaw, bat flight speed, bat strike angle, and bat strike locations on the rotor. Using turbine SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition), bat biometrics data, and carcass drag coefficient range, probability density functions of the input parameters were computed. With the help of carcass survey and SCADA details, bat fatalities were selected, and Monte-Carlo based ballistics model simulations were performed using corresponding values of the input parameters of the ballistics model. The surveyed carcass location for a bat found on the same day was in good agreement with the modelled fall zone distribution, providing a measure of model validation. Next, simulations were conducted for a bat fatality for which the carcass was found four days after collision. It was found that the observed location was within the modeled fall zone distribution showing the model capacity for planning surveys. Further, Monte-Carlo based 3-D ballistics model simulations were performed for the full migration season and the resulting 1-D (radial) and 2-D (surface) histograms were compared with the survey 1-D and 2-D histograms, respectively. The modelled 2-D fall zone distribution hot spot overlaps with surveyed carcass positions indicating the model robustness over a wide range of meteorological conditions and time scales. However, by comparison, the modeled 1-D fall zone distribution was found to be different from the surveyed 1-D fall zone distribution. We hypothesize that uncertainty in bat radial strike location (distribution of bat collisions on turbine blades in radial direction) distribution is primary source of difference between the surveyed and modelled 1-D fall zone distribution. There are no measurements available for this key input parameter. As a next step, the sensitivity of carcass fall zone distributions with respect to bat radial strike location distributions were tested. It was found that the probability density function for bat radial strike location affects the modelled fall zone distributions significantly. There is a need to measure bat radial and angular strike locations which can be used as input in the ballistics modeling framework to improve prediction of carcass fall zone distributions. The proposed model is useful for carcass survey planning, improving survey estimates, designing turbine curtailment studies, and collision risk modeling.

High egg retention in Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha carcasses sampled downstream of a migratory barrier.

Barriers in rivers have the potential to severely decrease functional connectivity between habitats. Failure to pass barriers and reach natal spawning habitat may compromise individual reproductive success, particularly for semelparous, philopatric species that rely on free-flowing rivers to reach natal habitat during their once-in-a-lifetime spawning migrations. To investigate the consequences of in-river barriers on fish spawning success, we quantified egg retention and spawning effort (caudal fin wear) in female Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha carcasses collected downstream of the Whitehorse Hydro Plant on the upper Yukon River and at a nearby free-flowing tributary (Teslin River) from 2018 to 2020 (~2900 km migrations). Previous studies have demonstrated that a large proportion of fish attempting to reach spawning locations upstream of the hydro plant fail to pass the associated fishway. We estimated nearly all female salmon failing to pass the hydro plant attempted spawning in non-natal habitat downstream, but that these females retained ~34% of their total fecundity compared to ~6% in females from the free-flowing river. Females downstream of the hydro plant also had lower wear on their caudal fin, a characteristic that was correlated with increased egg deposition. Egg retention did not vary across years with different run sizes, and we propose that egg retention downstream of the hydro plant was not driven by density-dependent mechanisms. Findings from this work indicate that female Chinook Salmon can still deposit eggs following failed fish passage and failure to reach natal spawning sites, though egg retention rates are considerably higher and uncertainties remain about reproductive success. We encourage researchers to incorporate carcass surveys into fish passage evaluations for semelparous species to fully account for consequences of failed passage.

Timing and Weather Offer Alternative Mitigation Strategies for Lowering Bat Mortality at Wind Energy Facilities in Ontario.

Simple SummaryWind farms represent one of the largest sources of anthropogenic mortality for bats. Wind proponents attempt to mitigate these effects via operational curtailment, such that wind energy is not produced on nights with low wind speeds during the late summer and fall. Our study modeled bat activity and mortality on two timescales (nightly and seasonally) and in response to a range of weather variables. We showed that bat mortality risks could be lowered and opportunities for wind energy production can be increased by focusing curtailment efforts to the periods of the night and year when bats are most active and by considering a wider range of weather variables, compared to standard curtailment strategies.Relatively high mortality of migratory bats at wind energy facilities has prompted research to understand the underlying spatial and temporal factors, with the goal of developing more effective mitigation approaches. We examined acoustic recordings of echolocation calls at 12 sites and post-construction carcass survey data collected at 10 wind energy facilities in Ontario, Canada, to quantify the degree to which timing and regional-scale weather predict bat activity and mortality. Rain and low temperatures consistently predicted low mortality and activity of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) and three species of migratory tree bats: hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus), eastern red bat (L. borealis), and silver-haired bat (Lasionycteris noctivagans). Bat activity occurred in waves with distinct peaks through the season; regardless of seasonal timing, most activities occurred in the first half of the night. We conclude that wind energy facilities could adopt a novel and more effective curtailment strategy based on weather and seasonal and nocturnal timing that would minimize mortality risks for bats while increasing the opportunities for power generation, relative to the mitigation strategy of increasing cut-in wind speed to 5.5 m/s.

Optimising the cost of roadkill surveys based on an analysis of carcass persistence

Reliable estimates of wildlife mortality due to wildlife-vehicle collisions are key to understanding its impact on wildlife populations and developing strategies to prevent or reduce collisions. Standardised approaches for monitoring roadkill are needed to derive robust and unbiased estimates of mortality that are comparable across different study systems and ecological contexts. When designing surveys, there is a trade-off between survey frequency (and hence logistical effort and financial cost) and carcass detection. In this regard, carcass persistence (the period a carcass remains detectable before being removed by decomposition or scavengers) is important; the longer a carcass persists, the greater the likelihood it will be detected with lower survey effort by conducting more infrequent surveys. Using multi-taxon carcass data collected over a month of repeated driven surveys, combined with five covariates (species functional group, body weight, carcass position on road, carcass condition [either flattened or not after impact], and rainfall prior to each survey), we explored the drivers of carcass persistence with the overall aim of providing information to optimise the design of carcass surveys along linear infrastructure. Our methodological approach included a survival analysis to determine carcass persistence, linear regressions to test the effect of covariates, a subsampling analysis (using field data and a simulation exercise) to assess how the proportion of carcasses detected changes according to survey frequency, and an analysis to compare the costs of surveys based on study duration, transect length and survey frequency. Mean overall carcass persistence was 2.7 days and was significantly correlated with position on road and within-functional group body weight. There was no evidence for a significant effect of rainfall, while the effect of carcass condition was weakly non-significant. The proportion of carcasses detected decreased sharply when survey intervals were longer than three days. However, we showed that survey costs can be reduced by up to 80% by conducting non-daily surveys. Expanding on the call for a standardised methodology for roadkill surveys, we propose that carcass persistence be explicitly considered during survey design. By carefully considering the objectives of the survey and characteristics of the focal taxa, researchers can substantially reduce logistical costs. In addition, we developed an R Shiny web app that can be used by practitioners to compare survey costs across a variety of survey characteristics. This web app will allow practitioners to easily assess the trade-off between carcass detection and logistical effort.

Development and testing of a three‐dimensional ballistics model for bat strikes on wind turbines

AbstractBats colliding with spinning wind turbine blades result in bat mortality. Carcass surveys at individual wind turbines vary from daily to once a week and from large cleared plots to only the road and pad area. A physics‐based model is proposed to guide carcass surveys, for designing curtailment studies to detect treatment fatalities and for improving fatality estimates by accounting for unsearched areas. The model considers the effects of carcass size, weight, and drag, and it accounts for the turbine rotor size and rotation rate to simulate the trajectory of a carcass after it is struck by a wind turbine blade. A carcass parameter is defined as the ratio of drag force to body weight, which accounts for the relative effect of bat biophysical and aerodynamic characteristics. By applying restrictions on carcass survey and turbine yaw data, a limited sample of bat fatalities was obtained, and the analysis revealed that bats fall downwind of wind turbines, indicating wind drift significantly influences carcass fall trajectories. The new ballistics model includes the effect of wind drift on fall trajectory of a carcass. The model was used to investigate the sensitivity of carcass fall trajectories to variability of the input parameters. The tests showed that larger values of the carcass parameter, that is, when drag dominates, such as for small carcasses, resulted in larger downwind drift, whereas large carcasses with smaller carcass parameter values resulted in larger distances within the rotor plane. The relationship of wind speed and RPM was found to influence the carcass downwind distance more compared to the within rotor plane distance. Using carcass survey data, turbine operation data, and wind speed records, for seven bats surveyed the day after colliding with a wind turbine, modelled back‐trajectories were used to identify the likely strike location on the rotor. The model can be improved by validating the modelled trajectories with the recorded bat‐blade strikes in thermal videos. It should be noted that the findings of the present study are based on the bat fatalities that met strict criteria leading to small sample size and hence requires further evaluation for testing the robustness of the model.

Comparative Study of Animal Carcass Survey Methods on Roads

Comparative Study of Animal Carcass Survey Methods on Roads

Experimental investigation of aerodynamic characteristics of bat carcasses after collision with a wind turbine

Abstract. A large number of bat fatalities have been reported in wind energy facilities in different regions globally. Wind farm operators are required to monitor bat fatalities by conducting carcass surveys at wind farms. A previous study implemented the ballistics model to characterize the carcass fall zone distributions after a bat is struck by turbine blades. The ballistics model considers the aerodynamic drag force term, which is dependent upon the carcass drag coefficient. The bat carcass drag coefficient is highly uncertain; no measurement of it is available. This paper introduces a methodology for bat carcass drag coefficient estimation. Field investigation at Macksburg wind farm resulted in the discovery of three bat species: the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus), eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis), and evening bat (Nycticeius humeralis). Carcass drop experiments were performed from a dropping platform at finite height, and carcass position time series data were recorded using a high-speed camera. Falling carcasses were subjected to aerodynamic drag and gravitational forces. Carcasses were observed to undergo rotation, often rotating around multiple axes simultaneously, as well as lateral translation. The complex fall dynamics, along with drop from a limited height, prohibit the carcasses from attaining terminal velocity. Under this limitation, the drag coefficient is estimated by fitting a ballistics model to the measured velocity. Multivariable optimization was performed to fit the ballistics model to the measured velocity resulting, in an optimized estimate of the drag coefficient. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated significant variation in the drag coefficient with a small change in initial position, highlighting the chaotic nature of carcass fall dynamics. Based on the limited sample, the bat carcass drag coefficient and terminal velocity were found to be between 0.70–1.23 and 6.63–17.57 m s−1, respectively. The maximum distance carcasses are predicted to fall after impact with a typical utility-scale onshore wind turbine was computed using a 2-D ballistics model. Based on the range of drag coefficients found in this study, hoary and evening bats are estimated to fall within the rotor plane up to a maximum distance of 92 and 62 m, respectively, from the wind turbine tower. The ballistics model of carcasses after being struck by wind turbine blades can be used to obtain fall distributions for bats, guide carcass survey efforts, and correct survey data for limited or unsearched areas.

Increased prespawning mortality threatens an integrated natural- and hatchery-origin sockeye salmon population in the Lake Washington Basin

The life cycle of diadromous fishes such as salmonids involves natural mortality in a series of distinct life history stages, occurring sequentially in different habitats. Decades of research have emphasized mortality at the embryo, juvenile, and sub-adult stages but it is increasingly clear that some adults that survive and return to freshwater habitats die during the final homeward migration or after they reach the spawning grounds, prior to breeding. These are termed “en route” and “prespawning” mortality, respectively, and can threaten populations depleted by mortality at previous stages. In this study, we present evidence that the sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, population that returns to the Lake Washington Basin, in Washington State, USA, is experiencing both forms of adult mortality. Counts of the salmon entering the basin on their return migration in June and July were compared to counts in the major spawning grounds in September through November for 1995–2018. The disparity has increased markedly in recent years. The counts on the spawning grounds have decreased as a proportion of the number entering the system with an average 49 % of sockeye unaccounted for, consistent with increased en route mortality. In addition, prespawning mortality rates have increased in salmon that reach the Cedar River, the main spawning tributary, both at a hatchery holding adult fish in 1995–2018, and in the naturally spawning populations when monitored in the last five years. Hatchery records indicated <10 % prespawning mortality for 1995–2010, increasing to an average 43 % for 2014 – 2018. Recent carcass surveys in the Cedar River documented that 33.6% (2014), 22.3% (2015), 30.3% (2016) and 50.0% (2018) of female sockeye died before completing spawning. These recent increases in prespawning mortality have been associated with warm water during entry to freshwater, but comparably warm water in past decades had no such effect. Steady warming of river temperatures around the median run completion date from < 8.0 °C to > 13.0 °C was correlated with increased prespawning mortality rates at the hatchery from 1995–2018. We conclude that warming conditions during migration and spawning, in concert with other factors such as infections with pathogens, are responsible for the increased prespawning mortality of adult sockeye salmon that are high enough to threaten the population’s viability.

Fishery collapse, recovery, and the cryptic decline of wild salmon on a major California river

Fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the Sacramento–San Joaquin River system form the backbone of California’s salmon fishery and are heavily subsidized through hatchery production. Identifying temporal trends in the relative contribution of hatchery- versus wild-spawned salmon is vital for assessing the status and resiliency of wild salmon populations. Here, we reconstructed the proportion of hatchery fish on natural spawning grounds in the Feather River, a major tributary to the Sacramento River, using strontium isotope (87Sr/86Sr) ratios of otoliths collected during carcass surveys from 2002 to 2010. Our results show that prior to the 2007–2008 salmon stock collapse, 55%–67% of in-river spawners were of hatchery origin; however, hatchery contributions increased drastically (89%) in 2010 following the collapse. Data from a recent hatchery marking program corroborate our results, showing that hatchery fish continued to dominate (∼90%) in 2011–2012. Though the rebound in abundance of salmon in the Feather River suggests recovery of the stock postcollapse, our otolith chemistry data document a persistent decline of wild spawners, likely leading to the erosion of locally adapted Feather River salmon populations.

Process-based vs. ad-hoc methods to estimate mortality using carcass surveys data: A review and a note about evidence complacency

To quantify the rate at which wildlife die from anthropogenic sources like wind farms and poisoning, one may look for the carcasses. The number of detected carcasses, or the absence of carcasses, however needs to be corrected for imperfect detection and early removal by scavengers. To perform this correction, there exist more than a dozen “open” variants of the Lincoln-Petersen “closed-population” capture-recapture estimator. These different variants typically yield very different results because they are based on different assumptions that end users do not always consider. I conduct a simulation study highlighting severe biases in Lincoln-Petersen type estimators when their assumptions are violated. Recent attempts to relax these assumptions within the closed-population capture-recapture paradigm involve increasingly complex analysis, yet the resulting modified estimators still apply to restricted settings only. By contrast, there is an abundant literature about flexible, process-based, open-population capture-recapture models and how to fit them to survey data using numerical likelihood optimization. My simulations illustrate the good performance of this approach, in the presence of complex sources of bias, for moderate sample sizes. I review existing guidelines to deal with sparser datasets. As a perspective, I use the example of bird mortality estimation in wind farms to argue that the lack of methodological consensus can set the stage for evidence complacency. Biostatisticians should strive to avoid the proliferation of alternative methods and instead work towards increasingly general and unified frameworks.