Carbon Budget Research Articles

Implications of accelerated and delayed climate action for Ireland’s energy transition under carbon budgets

Limiting global warming requires the effective implementation of energy mitigation measures by individual countries. However, the consequences of the timing of these efforts on the technical feasibility of adhering to cumulative carbon budgets—which determines future global warming—are underexplored. Moreover, existing national studies on carbon budgets either overlook integrated sectoral interactions, path dependencies, or comprehensive demand-side strategies. To address this, we analyse Ireland’s mitigation pathways under equal per-capita carbon budgets using an energy systems optimisation model. Our findings reveal that delayed mitigation brings forward the need for a net-zero target by five years, risks carbon lock-in and stranded assets, increase reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies and leads to higher long-term mitigation costs. To keep the Paris Agreement targets, countries must set and meet accelerated mid-term mitigation goals and address energy demand.

Hydrochemical characterization and pCO2 dynamics in the surface waters of Himalayan River: A case study of river Alaknanda.

Chemical weathering processes are becoming increasingly important in studies on carbon cycling because they are responsible for increased solute fluxes in the proglacial zone, can effectively sequester atmospheric CO2 and raise carbon budgets for lateral transport via rivers. Here, we examined the hydrochemical and hydrogeochemical processes, solute sources and factors controlling riverine pCO2 of the Alaknanda River and its tributaries for three sampling seasons, viz. pre-monsoon (May 2021), post-monsoon (October 2021) and winter (January 2022). The surface water is enriched with Ca2+ and Mg2+ as the dominant cations, while HCO3- and SO42- were the major anions. Gibbs's plot confirmed rock weathering as the leading mechanism in controlling the hydrochemistry of the basin. The chemical composition of river water was mainly regulated by the weathering of carbonate end members: dolomite, limestone and feldspar along with small inputs from silicate weathering. The mean pCO2 values in the mainstream (1702.7 µatm), Pindar (2267.9 µatm) and Mandakini (1136.1 µatm) revealed the streams were oversaturated with CO2 having a higher rate of exporting excess CO2 gas to the atmosphere. The study showed the persistence of high pCO2 closed system characteristics associated with increased suspended sediment concentration resulting from carbonate weathering, dominance of HCO3- over SO42- and thereby results in high values of C ratio. Principal component analysis of the water chemistry suggests that weathering contributes about 41%, while humans contribute about 13% of the ionic load to the river. This study is one of its kind to understand the system characteristics of Alaknanda River water.

Thinning Impacts on Carbon and Water Budgets in a Temperate Deciduous Forest Ecosystem

Among various forest management activities, thinning is a prevalent treatment that affects tree growth and living biomass. Increased moisture and light availability may also enhance the mineralization of litter and dead wood organic matter, impacting soil carbon stocks. Thinning may also affect the services forests provide, including water production and nutrient cycling. The impacts of thinning on water yield and carbon stocks have been well documented around the globe while targeting mainly one of these ecosystem services. Our experimental paired catchment study covers both and puts forward long term results. We assessed the carbon stock changes caused by two slight thinning treatments together with the impacts on water yield in experimental paired catchments of 71.9 (W–I) and 77.5 hectares (W–IV) in Istanbul, Türkiye. The null hypothesis was that the slight thinnings did not affect the water yield and carbon stocks significantly. On the carbon stock part, we calibrated and parametrized the CBM–CF3 model with field measurements to simulate changes in carbon stocks of mixed deciduous forest stands. The intensities of the treatments (thinnings) were 11% and 18% of the basal area, performed in 1986 and 2011, respectively. We found that, while C stocks decreased by around 30 tons per hectare during the 1986–2020 period, the water yield was enhanced by approximately 25 mm/yr in the treatment catchment compared to the control watershed during the four-year post-treatment period. This amount of streamflow increase was around 10 percent of the average water yield of the catchments. It was concluded that there was a detectable increase in water yield during the following four years of the slight thinning treatments, while the reduction in abovegound carbon stocks continued for more than three decades.

Temperature effect on seawater fCO2 revisited: theoretical basis, uncertainty analysis and implications for parameterising carbonic acid equilibrium constants

Abstract. The sensitivity of the fugacity of carbon dioxide in seawater (fCO2) to temperature (denoted υ, reported in % °C−1) is critical for the accurate fCO2 measurements needed to build global carbon budgets and for understanding the drivers of air–sea CO2 flux variability across the ocean. However, understanding and computing υ have been restricted to either using empirical functions fitted to experimental data or determining it as an emergent property of a fully resolved marine carbonate system, and these two approaches are not consistent with each other. The lack of a theoretical basis and an uncertainty estimate for υ has hindered resolving this discrepancy. Here, we develop a new approach for calculating the temperature sensitivity of fCO2 based on the equations governing the marine carbonate system and the van 't Hoff equation. This shows that, to first order, ln (fCO2) should be proportional to 1/tK (where tK is temperature in kelvin), rather than to temperature, as has previously been assumed. This new approach is, to first order, consistent with calculations from a fully resolved marine carbonate system, which we have incorporated into the PyCO2SYS software. Agreement with experimental data is less convincing but remains inconclusive due to the scarcity of direct measurements of υ, particularly above 25 °C. However, the new approach is consistent with field data, performing better than any other approach for adjusting fCO2 by up to 10 °C if spatiotemporal variability in its single fitted coefficient is accounted for. The uncertainty in υ arising from only measurement uncertainty in the main experimental dataset where υ has been directly measured is in the order of 0.04 % °C−1, which corresponds to a 0.04 % uncertainty in fCO2 adjusted by +1 °C. However, spatiotemporal variability in υ is several times greater than this, so the true uncertainty due to the temperature adjustment in fCO2 adjusted by +1 °C using the most widely used constant υ value is around 0.24 %. This can be reduced to around 0.06 % using the new approach proposed here, and this could be further reduced by more measurements. The spatiotemporal variability in υ arises mostly from the equilibrium constants for CO2 solubility and carbonic acid dissociation (K1∗ and K2∗), and its magnitude varies significantly depending on which parameterisation is used for K1∗ and K2∗. Seawater fCO2 can be measured accurately enough that additional experiments should be able to detect spatiotemporal variability in υ and distinguish between different parameterisations for K1∗ and K2∗. Because the most widely used constant υ was coincidentally measured from seawater with roughly global average υ, our results are unlikely to significantly affect global air–sea CO2 flux budgets, but they may have more important implications for regional budgets and studies that adjust by larger temperature differences.

Distribution and Preservation of Total Organic Carbon and Total Inorganic Carbon in Pipahai Lake over the Past Century

Carbon burial patterns in lakes and their dynamic changes significantly impact terrestrial carbon sink fluxes and global carbon budgets. In this study, multi-indicator analysis of sediment core samples (P1, P2, and P3) from Pipahai Lake was conducted. Integrating the chronological sequences of 210Pb and 137Cs, we identified the historical changes and spatial characteristics of total organic carbon (TOC) and inorganic carbon (TIC) burial in Pipahai Lake since 1884. The results show that the TOC content was higher than that of the TIC. They exhibited an increasing trend with decreasing depth. Linear regression results indicated that the variation of TOC is less directly affected by precipitation (R = 0.39) and temperature (R = 0.58), while temperature may have a greater impact on TOC. From 1884 to 1995, nutrients were not the primary factor influencing changes in TOC. The synchronous variation in TIC and TOC contents reflects a higher contribution of external inputs to carbon burial in the Pipahai Lake basin. After 1996, nutrients may have begun to affect variations in TOC. The TOC primarily originates from distal aeolian transport or autochthonous sources, though human activity has played a role in its evolution. The TIC content is controlled by the TOC content and autochthonous sources. This study will contribute to the understanding of the carbon cycling dynamics and their influencing mechanisms in a high-altitude lake ecosystem.

Anomalous wet summers and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase the CO2 sink in a poorly drained forest on permafrost

At the northern high latitudes, rapid warming, associated changes in the hydrological cycle, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, [CO2], are observed at present. Under rapid environmental changes, it is important to understand the current and future trajectories of the CO2 budget in high-latitude ecosystems. In this study, we present the importance of anomalous wet conditions and rising [CO2] on the long-term CO2 budget based on two decades (2003-2022) of quasicontinuous measurements of CO2 flux at a poorly drained black spruce forest on permafrost peat in interior Alaska. The long-term CO2 budget for the black spruce forest was a small sink of -53 ± 63 g C m-2 y-1. The CO2 sink increased from 49 g C m-2 y-1 for the first decade to 58 g C m-2 y-1 for the second decade. The increased CO2 sink was attributed to an 11.3% increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) among which 9% increase in GPP was explained by a recent increase in precipitation. Furthermore, a 3% increase in GPP in response to a 37-ppm increase in [CO2] was estimated from the data-model fusion. Our study shows that understanding the coupling between hydrological and carbon cycles and the CO2 fertilization effect is important for understanding the current and future carbon budgets of high-latitude ecosystems in permafrost regions.

Permafrost impacts on chemical weathering and CO2 budgets in the Tibetan Plateau: Micro-watershed perspective on a headwater catchment

Understanding the balance between alkalinity generation from carbonate and silicate weathering, and the effect of sulfide weathering, is crucial for comprehending the impact of these processes on atmospheric CO2 levels. However, the sequestration potential and the net balance of CO2 between the release from sulfide weathering and the consumption by silicate weathering in permafrost environments remain contentious. This study examines the Shaliu River, a typical permafrost-dominated headwater catchment in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau, from a micro-watershed perspective to elucidate the effects of permafrost on chemical weathering and CO2 budgets during ablation period. Silicate weathering in the Shaliu River contributes 25–32 % to solute load, while carbonate weathering contributes 39–45 %. Sulfuric acid (H2SO4) plays a key role in carbonate weathering, accounting for 74 % of it and 37 % of the river’s solute load, especially in the permafrost-covered upstream areas. In contrast, bicarbonate (HCO3–) impacts are more evident in the lower reaches without permafrost. By integrating silicate and carbonate weathering with H2SO4-driven reactions, CO2 budget analysis indicates that the Shaliu River basin acts as a carbon source. The MEANDIR inversion model consistently depicts the watershed as a carbon source, influenced by permafrost and lithology. This implies that sulfide oxidation to produce sulfuric acid (H2SO4) drives carbonate weathering may significantly counterbalance the carbon sequestration associated with silicate weathering over geological timescales. The study provides a comprehensive understanding of the carbon budget dynamics within the permafrost-dominated watersheds of the Tibetan Plateau, enhancing the comprehension of carbon cycle processes in high-altitude ecosystems.

Enhanced ocean CO2 uptake due to near-surface temperature gradients

AbstractThe ocean annually absorbs about a quarter of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Global estimates of air–sea CO2 fluxes are typically based on bulk measurements of CO2 in air and seawater and neglect the effects of vertical temperature gradients near the ocean surface. Theoretical and laboratory observations indicate that these gradients alter air–sea CO2 fluxes, because the air–sea CO2 concentration difference is highly temperature sensitive. However, in situ field evidence supporting their effect is so far lacking. Here we present independent direct air–sea CO2 fluxes alongside indirect bulk fluxes collected along repeat transects in the Atlantic Ocean (50° N to 50° S) in 2018 and 2019. We find that accounting for vertical temperature gradients reduces the difference between direct and indirect fluxes from 0.19 mmol m−2 d−1 to 0.08 mmol m−2 d−1 (N = 148). This implies an increase in the Atlantic CO2 sink of ~0.03 PgC yr−1 (~7% of the Atlantic Ocean sink). These field results validate theoretical, modelling and observational-based efforts, all of which predicted that accounting for near-surface temperature gradients would increase estimates of global ocean CO2 uptake. Accounting for this increased ocean uptake will probably require some revision to how global carbon budgets are quantified.

Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023

Abstract In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 ± 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 ± 0.21 GtC yr−1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015–2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 ± 0.19 GtC yr−1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 ± 0.10 GtC yr−1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 ± 0.12 GtC yr−1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20°N declined by half to 1.13 ± 0.24 GtC yr−1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015–16 El Niño carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Niña years (2020–2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Niño (0.56 ± 0.23 GtC yr−1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Niña's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Niño later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr−1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change.

Carbon Budgeting of a Long-term Rice-rice Cropping Sequence in the Typic ustipsamments of Kerala, India

A judicious management practice to improve the soil's organic carbon level and soil fertility is essential for agricultural and environmental sustainability. The present study was undertaken to assess the long-term effect of various management practices on soil carbon dynamics and agricultural sustainability by computation of indices like carbon pool index (CPI), carbon lability index (CLI), carbon management index (CMI), critical carbon input and carbon budgeting. CMI has been used as a more sensitive indicator to evaluate capacity of a management practice to promote soil quality. Sensitivity index was used to determine the degree of changes in each carbon fraction due to management practices. The study was carried out in a permanent manurial trial plot started in 1964 under a long term rice-rice cropping sequence in Kerala. Based on the results obtained, integrated application of NPK fertilizers along with FYM showed significantly higher carbon indices, increased soil carbon fractions, and carbon sequestration compared to other management practices. The study revealed that applying organics coupled with inorganic fertilizers will manage the SOC level and result in enhanced soil fertility, productivity, and agricultural sustainability.

The decline in tropical land carbon sink drives high atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2023

Abstract Atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR), reflecting the carbon balance between anthropogenic emissions and net uptake from land and ocean, largely determines the magnitude and speed of global warming. CGR at Mauna Loa Baseline Observatory reached record high in 2023. Here we quantified major components of global carbon balance for 2023, by developing a framework which integrated fossil fuel CO2 emissions data, an atmospheric inversion from Global ObservatioN-based system for monitoring Greenhouse GAses (GONGGA) with two artificial intelligence (AI) models derived from dynamic global vegetation models. We attributed the record high CGR increase in 2023 compared to 2022 primarily to the large decline in land carbon sink (1803 ± 197 TgC year−1), with minor contributions from a small reduction in ocean carbon sink (184 TgC year−1) and a slight increase in fossil fuel emissions (24 TgC year−1). At least 78% of the global decline in land carbon sink was contributed by the decline in tropical sink, with GONGGA inversion (1354 TgC year−1) and AI simulations (1578 ± 666 TgC year−1) showing similar declines in the tropics. We further linked this tropical decline to the detrimental impact of El Niño-induced anomalous warming and drying on vegetation productivity in water-limited Sahel and southern Africa. Our successful attribution of CGR increase within the framework combining atmospheric inversion with AI simulations enabled near-real-time tracking of the global carbon budget which had a one-year reporting lag.

Climate Change Drove the Decline in Yangtze Estuary Net Primary Production Over the Past Two Decades.

Net primary productivity (NPP) is highly sensitive to multiple stressors under progressive and intensifying climate change and anthropogenic impacts. The importance of understanding spatiotemporal distribution patterns and the associated driving factors that govern estuary NPP is paramount for regional carbon (C) budget assessments. Using a combined remote sensing and machine learning (ML) approach, the average NPP of the Yangtze Estuarine-offshore continuum (YEOC) was measured at 273.19 ± 21.26 mgC m-2 day-1 over the past two decades. Temporally, NPP exhibited a significant downward trend between 2002 and 2022. Climate factors (climate fluctuations, sea level rise, and discharge) drove phytoplankton biomass (Chl-a) while light conditions (PAR and Kd490) affected photosynthesis rates. Together, they can explain 65% of the NPP variation. Anthropogenic disturbances (i.e., damming and nutrient emissions) were not significant. Additionally, changes in NPP decreased phytoplankton C sequestration rates from 11.9 to 10.4 Tg C year-1, reducing the estuary's C sink capacity, which relies on biological C fixation. This study highlights the climate's influence on the spatiotemporal transformation of YEOC NPP while enhancing our understanding of the response of EOC C budgets to climate change and anthropogenic activities.

Spatial variability of sedimentary assemblages reflects variations in bioerosion pressure of adjacent coral reefs.

The composition of coral-reef sediments is highly variable across space and time, and differences in the life histories of the dominant calcifying organisms on reefs contribute to the heterogeneity of reef sediments. Previous studies have suggested that variations in coral-reef bioerosion can influence spatial and temporal variations of sedimentary assemblages: elevated erosion rates of dead coral skeletons can trigger a pulse of coral-derived sediments and cause a shift in the dominance of sedimentary grains from coralline algae, such as Halimeda, to coral. We assessed the variability of the sedimentary composition and bioerosion rates of reefs at different spatial scales to determine the association between these two variables. We surveyed the benthic assemblages on reefs exhibiting different ecological states and collected samples of the associated sediments. We calculated the carbonate budget for each site and compared their variability at different hierarchical levels to the variability of their respective sedimentary assemblages. At the scale of sites (1-10 km), Halimeda cover was a significant predictor of the relative abundance of Halimeda grains. Both the relative abundance of coral grains and reef bioerosion rates varied significantly at the scale of locality (tens to hundreds of km), with high abundances of coral grains in the sediments coinciding with high rates of bioerosion. The main drivers of bioerosion at our localities were parrotfish assemblages dominated by large size classes of excavating species such as Sparisoma viride. Reef sediments may reflect the gross degree of bioerosion pressure that reefs experience, and historical changes in bioerosion rates could potentially be assessed by examining the sediments across temporal scales.

Exploring the decision-making process in model development: focus on the Arctic snowpack

Abstract. The Arctic poses many challenges for Earth system and snow physics models, which are commonly unable to simulate crucial Arctic snowpack processes,such as vapour gradients and rain-on-snow-induced ice layers. These limitations raise concerns about the current understanding of Arctic warming and its impact on biodiversity, livelihoods, permafrost, and the global carbon budget. Recognizing that models are shaped by human choices, 18 Arctic researchers were interviewed to delve into the decision-making process behind model construction. Although data availability, issues of scale, internal model consistency, and historical and numerical model legacies were cited as obstacles to developing an Arctic snowpack model, no opinion was unanimous. Divergences were not merely scientific disagreements about the Arctic snowpack but reflected the broader research context. Inadequate and insufficient resources, partly driven by short-term priorities dominating research landscapes, impeded progress. Nevertheless, modellers were found to be both adaptable to shifting strategic research priorities – an adaptability demonstrated by the fact that interdisciplinary collaborations were the key motivation for model development – and anchored in the past. This anchoring and non-epistemic values led to diverging opinions about whether existing models were “good enough” and whether investing time and effort to build a new model was a useful strategy when addressing pressing research challenges. Moving forward, we recommend that both stakeholders and modellers be involved in future snow model intercomparison projects in order to drive developments that address snow model limitations currently impeding progress in various disciplines. We also argue for more transparency about the contextual factors that shape research decisions. Otherwise, the reality of our scientific process will remain hidden, limiting the changes necessary to our research practice.

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Changes in China's Carbon Budget at Different Administrative Scales

Currently, scientifically and reasonably specifying carbon emission reduction measures in the context of "double carbon" has become a common concern worldwide. China's administrative divisions have a notable impact on the formulation and implementation of relevant policies. Therefore the carbon emissions must be calculated accurately under China's administrative divisions at different scales. The spatiotemporal change characteristics of absorption and carbon emissions can provide scientific basis for the formulation of reasonable and differentiated carbon emission reduction policies in different administrative regions in China. To this end, this study used multi-source data such as remote sensing and statistics and integrated ecological models, statistics, and GIS space analysis and other methods to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic change characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon absorption at different administrative scales （provinces, cities, and counties） in China. The results showed that： ① The total carbon absorption of vegetation in China continued to increase from 2000 to 2021 and the average value gradually increased. Differences were observed in spatiotemporal changes in carbon emissions at different administrative scales. The spatiotemporal changes at smaller scales were more evident. Carbon emissions showed obvious spatial differences of "high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west." ② The spatiotemporal distribution of CPI at the administrative scale was similar to that of carbon emissions and the overall trend was increasing annually. The pressure of carbon emissions on carbon absorption gradually weakened from the east to the central and western regions. ③ Spatiotemporal hotspot analysis showed that the overall spatial distribution of cold and hot spots in China's carbon absorption was as follows： In the spatial pattern of "hot in the east and cold in the west," the spatial distribution of cold and hot spots of carbon emissions showed agglomeration characteristics. The provincial scale was primarily oscillating hotspot whereas municipal and county scales were majorly continuous hot spots. Further results revealed that： ① Carbon absorption in different regions and periods in China showed significant variability, especially in the central and eastern regions. The possibility of offsetting carbon emissions by increasing carbon absorption remains. ② At the same scale, administrative regions （such as different provinces） and lower-level administrative regions at another scale （such as different cities in the same province） showed varying degrees of variability in carbon absorption and carbon emissions. Therefore, taking provincial administrative regions as an example for subsequent formulation considering carbon trading, emission reduction, and other policies, we should first consider the coordination of emissions between different cities in the province and then consider the coordination between provinces, which is expected to better promote the implementation of relevant policies.

Warming and disturbances affect Arctic-boreal vegetation resilience across northwestern North America.

Rapid warming and increasing disturbances in high-latitude regions have caused extensive vegetation shifts and uncertainty in future carbon budgets. Better predictions of vegetation dynamics and functions require characterizing resilience, which indicates the capability of an ecosystem to recover from perturbations. Here, using temporal autocorrelation of remotely sensed greenness, we quantify time-varying vegetation resilience during 2000-2019 across northwestern North American Arctic-boreal ecosystems. We find that vegetation resilience significantly decreased in southern boreal forests, including forests showing greening trends, while it increased in most of the Arctic tundra. Warm and dry areas with high elevation and dense vegetation cover were among the hotspots of reduced resilience. Resilience further declined both before and after forest losses and fires, especially in southern boreal forests. These findings indicate that warming and disturbance have been altering vegetation resilience, potentially undermining the expected long-term increase of high-latitude carbon uptake under future climate.

Direct and Legacy Effects of Varying Cool-Season Precipitation Totals on Ecosystem Carbon Flux in a Semi-Arid Mixed Grassland.

In the semi-arid grasslands of the southwest United States, annual precipitation is divided between warm-season (July-September) convective precipitation and cool-season (December-March) frontal storms. While evidence suggests shifts in precipitation seasonal distribution, there is a poor understanding of the ecosystem carbon flux responses to cool-season precipitation and the potential legacy effects on subsequent warm-season carbon fluxes. Results from a two-year experiment with three cool-season precipitation treatments (dry, received 5th percentile cool-season total precipitation; normal, 50th; wet, 95th) and constant warm-season precipitation illustrate the direct and legacy effects on carbon fluxes, but in opposing ways. In wet cool-season plots, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) were 103% and 127% higher than in normal cool-season plots. In dry cool-season plots, GPP and ER were 47% and 85% lower compared to normal cool-season plots. Unexpectedly, we found a positive legacy effect of the dry cool-season treatment on warm-season carbon flux, resulting in a significant increase in both GPP and ER in the subsequent warm season, compared to normal cool-season plots. Our results reveal positive legacy effects of cool-season drought on warm-season carbon fluxes and highlight the importance of the relatively under-studied cool-growing season and its direct/indirect impact on the ecosystem carbon budget.

County-level carbon budget and carbon compensation in the Yellow River Basin: a perspective with balancing efficiency and equity

County-level carbon budget and carbon compensation in the Yellow River Basin: a perspective with balancing efficiency and equity

Achieving deep transport energy demand reductions in the United Kingdom

The transport sector is a crucial yet challenging area to decarbonize, given its heavy reliance on fossil fuel usage, carbon-intensive infrastructure and car-centric lifestyles. It remains the largest contributor to local air pollution in cities yet has the potential to improve people's physical and mental health. This research investigated the potential contribution of transport energy demand reduction to climate change mitigation and improving public health. Using a comprehensive bottom-up modelling framework, the Transport Energy and Air pollution Model (TEAM), this study provides an integrated assessment of the impacts of deep mobility-related energy demand reductions, including lifecycle carbon emissions, local air pollution and health impacts. Using a sociotechnical scenario approach and the UK as a case study, this research reveals that energy demand reductions of up to 61 % by 2050 compared to baseline levels are achievable and can enhance citizens' quality of life. Business as usual approaches which rely on a technical transition miss the legislated carbon budgets and result in higher energy demand in 2050. More comprehensive scenarios deliver a reduction of up to 72 % in total lifecycle carbon emissions by 2050, with approximately half of the reduction achieved through mode shifting and avoiding travel, while the other half comes from vehicle energy efficiency, electrification, and downsizing of the vehicle fleets. The research shows that it can lead to significant co-benefits such as improved local air pollution and public health. The feasibility and practicality of policy measures and integrated strategies identified for achieving deep transport-energy demand reductions are discussed.

Reducing CO2 emissions from rivers around bare land contributes to improving the carbon sink function of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

River CO2 fluxes (FCO2) play an important role in the carbon cycle of the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, the carbon budget of river water is ignored in the assessment of the carbon sources and sinks of ecosystems on the QTP, which makes the assessment of the carbon sinks of ecosystems uncertain on the QTP. Here, we selected rivers around alpine steppe, alpine meadow, forestland and bare land areas on the QTP to determine their FCO2 values and control factors during thaw, rainy and freezing periods. The results revealed that river water around the alpine steppe absorbed CO2 during the thaw and freezing periods, making it a carbon sink. The influencing factors of FCO2 around different ecosystems significantly differed across the different periods. The pCO2 was the most direct factor affecting the FCO2 of river water. During the thaw period, the FCO2 of rivers around the alpine steppe and bare land was affected mainly by dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and precipitation, respectively. The FCO2 of rivers around the alpine meadow and forestland was affected by dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). During the rainy period, the FCO2 of the rivers around the alpine steppe and bare land was affected mainly by total nitrogen (TN) and salinity, respectively. The FCO2 of rivers around the alpine meadow and forestland was affected by dissolved oxygen (DO) and DOC. During the freezing period, the FCO2 of the rivers around the alpine steppe and bare land was affected mainly by TN and pCO2, respectively. The FCO2 of rivers around the forestland and alpine meadow was affected by precipitation, runoff and DIC. The FCO2 in rivers around vegetated areas were affected by rock weathering, aquatic ecosystem biology and hydrological processes to varying degrees at different times. However, rivers around bare ground were less affected by these processes. The FCO2 values around the alpine steppe, alpine meadow, forestland and bare land were 1.40 g C/m2/d, 1.12 g C/m2/d, 2.29 g C/m2/d and 4.20 g C/m2/d, respectively. The river water around bare land released a large amount of CO2. Therefore, to reduce the CO2 emissions of rivers on the QTP, it is urgent that we restore bare-land vegetation and promote the transfer of bare land to steppe, which is an effective way to increase the carbon sink of the ecosystems on the QTP.