Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Changes in China's Carbon Budget at Different Administrative Scales

Abstract

Currently, scientifically and reasonably specifying carbon emission reduction measures in the context of "double carbon" has become a common concern worldwide. China's administrative divisions have a notable impact on the formulation and implementation of relevant policies. Therefore the carbon emissions must be calculated accurately under China's administrative divisions at different scales. The spatiotemporal change characteristics of absorption and carbon emissions can provide scientific basis for the formulation of reasonable and differentiated carbon emission reduction policies in different administrative regions in China. To this end, this study used multi-source data such as remote sensing and statistics and integrated ecological models, statistics, and GIS space analysis and other methods to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic change characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon absorption at different administrative scales （provinces, cities, and counties） in China. The results showed that： ① The total carbon absorption of vegetation in China continued to increase from 2000 to 2021 and the average value gradually increased. Differences were observed in spatiotemporal changes in carbon emissions at different administrative scales. The spatiotemporal changes at smaller scales were more evident. Carbon emissions showed obvious spatial differences of "high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west." ② The spatiotemporal distribution of CPI at the administrative scale was similar to that of carbon emissions and the overall trend was increasing annually. The pressure of carbon emissions on carbon absorption gradually weakened from the east to the central and western regions. ③ Spatiotemporal hotspot analysis showed that the overall spatial distribution of cold and hot spots in China's carbon absorption was as follows： In the spatial pattern of "hot in the east and cold in the west," the spatial distribution of cold and hot spots of carbon emissions showed agglomeration characteristics. The provincial scale was primarily oscillating hotspot whereas municipal and county scales were majorly continuous hot spots. Further results revealed that： ① Carbon absorption in different regions and periods in China showed significant variability, especially in the central and eastern regions. The possibility of offsetting carbon emissions by increasing carbon absorption remains. ② At the same scale, administrative regions （such as different provinces） and lower-level administrative regions at another scale （such as different cities in the same province） showed varying degrees of variability in carbon absorption and carbon emissions. Therefore, taking provincial administrative regions as an example for subsequent formulation considering carbon trading, emission reduction, and other policies, we should first consider the coordination of emissions between different cities in the province and then consider the coordination between provinces, which is expected to better promote the implementation of relevant policies.