Carbon Sequestration Supply Research Articles

Exploring an assessment framework for the supply–demand balance of carbon sequestration services under land use change: Towards carbon strategy

The key challenge created by global climate change is to implement effective carbon–neutral programs. The carbon sequestration service (CSS) establishes spatial and temporal connections between carbon sequestration supply and demand, so accurate scientific quantification of the CSS supply–demand balance is essential. However, a standard assessment framework for quantifying CSS supply–demand is currently lacking. In this study, we developed a spatio-temporal assessment framework for quantifying CSS supply–demand balance under land use change, based on the SPANs model. We followed the flow of CSS from supply to demand areas through spatial visualization based on the main wind direction and defined the transport path and quantity of CSS flow, taking Lancang Mekong River Basin (LMRB) as a case. The results showed that: (1) The total supply of CSS decreased by 1.14 million tons from 2000 to 2020, and total demand for CSS increased by 8.1 million tons. (2) CSS surplus areas were mainly concentrated in forested regions, with a maximum surplus of 4.31 t/ha. Deficit areas were dominated by cultivated land and artificial surfaces, with a maximum deficit of −1101.21 t/ha. There was spatial heterogeneity in CSS distribution and a clear imbalance between supply and demand. (3) Three out of six countries in the basin showed significant changes in CSS flow, with a decrease in demand area observed in Thailand and an increase in demand area observed in Cambodia and Vietnam. (4) CSS flow was mainly from north to south, with higher CSS in Thailand and lower flow in China. Thus the analysis revealed supply–demand imbalances in CSS and provided an objective understanding of the spatial flow of CSS. This scientific and intuitive theoretical basis and data support can be used for regional carbon management in LMRB and global carbon balance control.

Multilevel ecological compensation policy design based on ecosystem service flow: A case study of carbon sequestration services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ecological compensation is an effective means to reconcile the imbalance of eco-social development between regions and promote enthusiasm for ecological environmental protection. There is some conformity between the theory of ecosystem service flow and ecological compensation, which provides new technical support for the formulation of ecological compensation policy. This study took the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research area, adopted the breaking point model to obtain the spatial characteristics of carbon sequestration flow, and formulated a multilevel ecological compensation policy with Tibet as the design object. The results showed that most of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a carbon sequestration surplus; the central and eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Sichuan are successively carbon sequestration supply areas; the Chengdu Plain and Xinjiang were listed as carbon sequestration benefit areas; and the carbon sequestration tended to flow more closely between supply and benefit areas in proximity to each other. Nyingchi, Chamdo, Naqu and Shannan in Tibet need to receive a total ecological compensation of 393.21 million USD, of which 93.71 % is from the national level, 6.02 % is from carbon sequestration benefit areas in other provinces; furthermore, Lhasa and Shigatse in Tibet need to provide the remaining ecological compensation. This study offers innovations for the formulation of ecological compensation policies and provide a new theory for ecological environment management.

Aboveground carbon sequestration of Cunninghamia lanceolata forests: Magnitude and drivers

Understanding the spatial variation, temporal changes, and their underlying driving forces of carbon sequestration in various forests is of great importance for understanding the carbon cycle and carbon management options. How carbon density and sequestration in various Cunninghamia lanceolata forests, extensively cultivated for timber production in subtropical China, vary with biodiversity, forest structure, environment, and cultural factors remain poorly explored, presenting a critical knowledge gap for realizing carbon sequestration supply potential through management. Based on a large-scale database of 449 permanent forest inventory plots, we quantified the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of aboveground carbon densities and carbon accumulation rates in Cunninghamia lanceolate forests in Hunan Province, China, and attributed the contributions of stand structure, environmental, and management factors to the heterogeneity using quantile age-sequence analysis, partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM), and hot-spot analysis. The results showed lower values of carbon density and sequestration on average, in comparison with other forests in the same climate zone (i.e., subtropics), with pronounced spatial and temporal variability. Specifically, quantile regression analysis using carbon accumulation rates along an age sequence showed large differences in carbon sequestration rates among underperformed and outperformed forests (0.50 and 1.80 ​Mg⋅​ha−1·yr−1). PLS-PM demonstrated that maximum DBH and stand density were the main crucial drivers of aboveground carbon density from young to mature forests. Furthermore, species diversity and geo-topographic factors were the significant factors causing the large discrepancy in aboveground carbon density change between low- and high-carbon-bearing forests. Hotspot analysis revealed the importance of culture attributes in shaping the geospatial patterns of carbon sequestration. Our work highlighted that retaining large-sized DBH trees and increasing shade-tolerant tree species were important to enhance carbon sequestration in C. lanceolate forests.

A wavelet coherence approach to zoning supply-demand matching of carbon sequestration service

Carbon sequestration (CS) is an important regulating service provided by natural ecosystem which plays an important role in mitigating global climate change. However, there is often spatial mismatch between the carbon sequestration supply and demand (CSSD), which makes it difficult to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks to achieve local carbon balance. Therefore, it is important to clarify the optimal scale to explore spatial matches and mismatches between CSSD and delimit spatial units for implementing effective carbon-focused management policies. Taking Hunan Province, China as an example, we evaluated CSSD in 2001 and 2017, and identified the optimal scale of spatial matching based on wavelet coherence analysis. The results showed that from 2001 to 2017, CS supply in Hunan Province increased by 6.45 %, while CS demand increased by 261.11 %. 8.40 km was identified as the optimal scale of CSSD spatial matches and mismatches, and Hunan Province could be divided into 3231 spatial units including four types according to the combination of CSSD, i.e. High supply-High demand, Low supply-Low demand, High supply-Low demand and Low supply-High demand. Based on the type changes of spatial units from 2001 to 2017, it was found that the key areas in need of ecological restoration were located in the east side of Xuefeng Mountains and the west side of Luoxiao Mountains, which could support accurate ecosystem monitoring and management under the background of improving the ‘one map’ of territorial space in Hunan Province. Based on wavelet coherence analysis, this study provided a spatial zoning approach for sustainable land use management, with a special focus on carbon sequestration supply and demand.

Exploring the changes and driving mechanisms in the production-transport-consumption process of ecosystem services flow in the Yellow River Basin under the background of policy changes

Analyzing the spatiotemporal changes of the ecosystem services flow and the impact mechanism is of great significance for achieving human well-being. It is challenged by regional differences in resource utilization pattern and intensity and the complex mechanisms of action between ecosystem services supply and demand. This study used InVEST model and local indicator of spatial association to delineate ecosystem services supply and demand areas. This study used comparative ecological radiation force to characterize the flow of carbon sequestration from supply to demand areas, and its changes were analyzed. The influence of different factors on the carbon sequestration supply, demand and flow was analyzed using correlation analysis. The results showed that there were significant spatial differences in the supply–demand situation of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, 7 supply areas and 29 demand areas were delineated. Many ecological restoration policies implemented from 2000 to 2020 improved the environmental situation and enhanced carbon sequestration flow. Carbon sequestration flow was more sensitive to human activities. The impact of the same intensity of human activity on the supply potential of carbon sequestration was stronger than the supply capacity. This study can provide a reference for regional ecosystem management.

Ecological Compensation in the Context of Carbon Neutrality: A Case Involving Service Production-Transmission and Distribution-Service Consumption

Carbon ecological compensation is essential to coordinate regional environmental protection, reduce the gap between the economic development of protected areas and beneficiary areas, and achieve carbon neutrality. This paper proposed a theoretical framework for ecological compensation using the theories of carbon balance, externality, ecosystem services, and carbon trading mechanisms. Based on the analysis of the ecological compensation priority sequence in Henan Province, the suppliers and consumers of carbon sequestration were identified, and cross-regional ecological compensation was realized through ecosystem services flow. The results showed that the carbon sequestration supply in Henan Province was characterized as being high in the west and low in the east, while the demand was the opposite. Affected by the suitable environmental conditions, many areas had an ecological surplus pattern, and the carbon sequestration supply was more significant than the demand. Central and south-western Henan Province were distinct ecological compensation payment areas and receiving areas, respectively. Nanyang, which had the largest carbon sequestration flow and the largest ecological contribution to other regions, received the highest ecological compensation fund of CNY 4.069 billion. This study can provide decision support for carbon ecological compensation in the context of carbon neutrality.

Estimating Stand-Level Carbon Supply Curves for Loblolly Pine and Douglas-Fir Plantations

AbstractWe estimate the carbon sequestration supply curve at the stand level based on the optimal rotation decision and conduct a marginal analysis for payments necessary for postponing harvest for additional 1-year increments of two commercially important species in the United States, loblolly pine and Douglas-fir. Under certain costs, production and timber prices assumptions, payments ranged from $62.23 ($26.97–$105.87) ac/yr. for loblolly pine plantations and $399.17 ($189.80–$628.72) ac/yr. for Douglas-fir plantations. Our results indicate that higher carbon sequestration occurs with higher site index, higher trees per acre, and in unthinned stands. Significant variability within and between species was heavily dependent on the number of years that final harvest was postponed. In addition, we show the effect of prices on the quantity supplied under multiple silvicultural treatments. The study should assist willing forest landowners and potential partners to determine initial reservation prices for carbon sequestration and temporary provision for a 1-year period in line with programs offering this contracting mechanism.

Marginal cost of carbon sequestration through forest afforestation of agricultural land in the southeastern United States

AbstractOne tool to mitigate climate change is to sequester carbon through changes in land use. The purpose of this study is to analyze the cost‐effectiveness of carbon sequestration through afforestation of cropland via the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the United States. We use the correlated random effects (CRE) probit model to estimate the impact of an increase in the CRP rental payments on land use transitions between cropland and forest. Our estimates are used to simulate land use change and carbon sequestration supply curves over different time horizons. Increasing the CRP rent to reflect the social cost of carbon of $154/tonne of carbon increases annual carbon sequestered by 7.42 million tonnes, 23.58 million tonnes, and 34.96 million tonnes over 1, 5, and 10‐year horizons.

Mapping ecosystem service supply and demand dynamics under rapid urban expansion: A case study in the Yangtze River Delta of China

Much remains to be learned about the contributions of urban expansion to the supply–demand budgets of ecosystem services (ES), a relationship that is crucial for achieving more sustainable urbanization. To fill this knowledge gap, we mapped supply and demand dynamics of two important ES (i.e., carbon sequestration and nature-based recreation) at 1-km resolution in the rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China. Carbon sequestration supply (CSS) and demand (CSD) were estimated under alternative carbon reduction policies, and supply (NRS) of and demand (NRD) for nature-based recreation were estimated by considering multiple levels of spatial accessibility. A moderate increase in CSS between 2000 and 2015 was contrasted with a sharp increase in CSD, indicating the existence of a widening gap between demand and supply in the YRD. Urban expansion was responsible for nine-tenths of the total increase in CSD and two-thirds of the growth in deficit area. As of 2015, CSS offset less than 5% of CSD in the eight core cities of the YRD. The areas of deficient CSS in these eight cities expanded by 8% under the long-term carbon neutrality goal, but they shrank by 34% due to significant decreases in carbon emissions per unit of GDP under the mid-term carbon reduction goal. NRS in the YRD decreased slightly coincident with moderate increases in NRD during the same period as a result of urban expansion and population growth. More than half of the increased deficit area was attributable to urban expansion across the region. NRD in the eight core cities equaled four-fifths of NRS in 2000, but it surpassed NRS by one-fifth in 2015. The disparities between NRS and NRD in these eight cities were reduced with increasing levels of accessibility to ecological land. Bridging the gaps between supply of and demand for these two ES will require control of unsustainable urban expansion, construction of urban-to-rural greenways, and improved economic efficiency of industrial carbon emissions in the YRD. The analytical framework and methods for mapping ES used here are applicable to other rapidly urbanizing regions of the world.

Identifying spatial similarities and mismatches between supply and demand of ecosystem services for sustainable Northeast China

Ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand, as well as their interactions, are vital aspects of ES research in the context of sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we assessed the supply-demand relationships of four provisioning and regulating services in Northeast China based on the InVEST model and multi-resource data. Then, we examined the spatial similarities and mismatches of selected ESs via correlation analyses and local indicators of spatial association. The results reveal that Northeast China is, in general, self-sufficient in terms of supply and demand for the estimated four ESs. Interactions among ES supplies were similar, whereas those among ES demands and ecological supply-demand ratio varied from case to case. Spatially-aligned supply and demand of water yield, soil conservation, and food provision were evident, whereas spatially-mismatched carbon sequestration supply and demand were dominant in Northeast China. Our study identifies significant high-low or low-high spatial mismatches for four ESs. Locations for these mismatches suggested that these areas should be prioritized for socio-ecological management. Balance between ES supply and demand recognized in this study could support comprehensive decision-making for sustainable spatial management of ecosystems in Northeast China.

How to optimize ecological compensation to alleviate environmental injustice in different cities in the Yellow River Basin? A case of integrating ecosystem service supply, demand and flow

• There is a mismatch between carbon sequestration supply and demand in study area. • The supply-demand situation of carbon sequestration showed a surplus pattern. • The direction of carbon sequestration flows was omnidirectional. • The total amount of ecological compensation was about 67.6 billion RMB. Ecosystem services generated in a specific area have utility outside the area. Ecosystem services have obvious externality. The degree and scale of ecosystem services directly delivered to beneficiaries vary greatly among different regions, resulting in environmental injustice. Implementation of ecological compensation (EC) can internalize the external effects and effectively solve environmental justice problems. It is imperative to clarify the supply-transmission-benefit mechanism between the providers of ecological products and services and the beneficiaries, and scientifically determine the beneficiaries and the compensation amount. Based on externalities and environmental justice theories, this study used the InVEST model and hotspot analysis to quantitatively assess carbon sequestration (CS) supply and demand in the Yellow River Basin and identified ecosystem service supply and demand areas. The comparative ecological radiation force (CERF), based on the gravity model and the breaking-point formula, was proposed to reveal the transmission paths, ecosystem service flow and to quantify the amount of EC. The result showed that although there was a spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of CS in the Yellow River Basin, most of the regions showed a surplus pattern. Baotou, Aba, Bayannur, and Erdos were the regions with large CERFs, and the amount of CS transferred outward was large. The total amount of EC obtained from the ecosystem services demand area was about 67.6 billion RMB. This study can provide references for the Yellow River Basin ecosystem management and the formulation of EC policies.

面向森林碳汇供给的企业减排路径选择机理与政策模拟

面向森林碳汇供给的企业减排路径选择机理与政策模拟

Forest carbon sequestration supply function for African countries: An econometric modelling approach

Carbon sequestration cost function for developing nations particularly Africa plays a vital role in global climate change policy. Based on this, the study estimates carbon sequestration supply function for African countries. The study shows that majority of the selected countries have their cost of carbon sequestration estimated at $14pertonperha. Botswana and Congo DRC represent African countries with high cost of carbon sequestration with $16.75 and $16.77 respectively. Nigeria however, has her average cost of carbon sequestration as low as $6.82. The regression result shows that carbon sequestration supply (p<0.01), deforestation (p<0.01) and forest area (p<0.01) are the factors influencing cost of carbon sequestration among the sub-Saharan African countries. The overall marginal cost which is the cost per unit land area required to drive land use change towards carbon sequestration was estimated at $13.30 per ton/ha in Africa. Nigeria, Mali and Chad however, show a relatively low marginal cost of $7.0, $8.0 and $9.0 respectively. The study however suggests that positive land use characteristics should be encourage among countries in Africa, particularly in Nigeria with the least marginal cost of carbon sequestration. This will help in reducing cost of carbon sequestration and thereby lowering the global effect of climate change.

Quantifying and Mapping the Supply of and Demand for Carbon Storage and Sequestration Service from Urban Trees.

Studies that assess the distribution of benefits provided by ecosystem services across urban areas are increasingly common. Nevertheless, current knowledge of both the supply and demand sides of ecosystem services remains limited, leaving a gap in our understanding of balance between ecosystem service supply and demand that restricts our ability to assess and manage these services. The present study seeks to fill this gap by developing and applying an integrated approach to quantifying the supply and demand of a key ecosystem service, carbon storage and sequestration, at the local level. This approach follows three basic steps: (1) quantifying and mapping service supply based upon Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) processing and allometric models, (2) quantifying and mapping demand for carbon sequestration using an indicator based on local anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and (3) mapping a supply-to-demand ratio. We illustrate this approach using a portion of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA. Our results indicate that 1735.69 million kg carbon are stored by urban trees in our study area. Annually, 33.43 million kg carbon are sequestered by trees, whereas 3087.60 million kg carbon are emitted by human sources. Thus, carbon sequestration service provided by urban trees in the study location play a minor role in combating climate change, offsetting approximately 1% of local anthropogenic carbon emissions per year, although avoided emissions via storage in trees are substantial. Our supply-to-demand ratio map provides insight into the balance between carbon sequestration supply in urban trees and demand for such sequestration at the local level, pinpointing critical locations where higher levels of supply and demand exist. Such a ratio map could help planners and policy makers to assess and manage the supply of and demand for carbon sequestration.

Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change

Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50$tCO2−1 in 2015 and exceeding 65$tCO2−1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189MtCO2yr−1. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1$B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers.

碳汇目标下农户森林经营最优决策及碳汇供给能力——基于浙江和江西两省调查

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 碳汇目标下农户森林经营最优决策及碳汇供给能力——基于浙江和江西两省调查 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201209181314 作者: 作者单位: 浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江农林大学经济管理学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(71203198);国家自然科学基金(71073148);国家自然科学基金(71273245);浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地"决策科学与创新管理"重大招标项目(RWSKZD01-2012ZB2,RWSKZD01-2012ZB);浙江省哲学社会科学规划(12JCJJ15YB);浙江省自然基金(Q12G030048) Household optimal forest management decision and carbon supply: case from Zhejiang and Jiangxi Provinces Author: Affiliation: zhejiang agriculture@forestry university,shenyueqin,,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:增加森林碳汇已成为应对气候变化的重要举措。基于浙江和江西两省农户调研数据,以杉木为案例树种,引用生长模型、修正的Faustmann模型碳密度和价格数据,对单一和碳汇木材复合经营目标下的杉木最佳轮伐期和林地期望值进行比较研究,并模拟了不同碳价格和利率水平下的变化,同时绘制了农户的碳汇供给曲线。可以发现,在碳汇林经营模式下,基于目前的杉木市场价格远高于碳价格的现实,农户的经营采伐决策并不会发生明显改变,从而导致在大范围的碳价格变动下碳汇的供给也没有显著增加,这也说明木材收益和碳收益的两个不同经营目标是协调的。同时,基于碳汇经营模式下的杉木林地期望值增长迅速,碳汇林地潜在投资价值巨大,也意味着森林碳汇对于土地利用改变可能会产生巨大影响。 Abstract:Using forest for carbon sequestration is widely accepted as an important strategy to mitigate climate change. Using data collected from rural households' survey in Zhejiang and Jiangxi, Faustmann model was applied to investigate the optimal rotation age and forestland expectation value between traditional timber management and joint timber and carbon management for Chinese fir. Carbon supply curve was developed and sensitivity analysis was conducted with various interest rate and carbon price. It was found that the optimal rotation of Chinese fir in the joint management does not change from traditional timber management due to the fact that timber price is much higher than carbon price, suggesting that optimal decision for Chinese fir management will not change significantly and carbon sequestration supply from current Chinese fir forestland would not increase significantly within a large range change of carbon price. However, including carbon value would significantly increase the land value for forest management against alternative land uses, and will expand the forest area, which also increase the carbon storage in the expanded forestland. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

If the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it would be necessary to decide whether to include carbon sequestration policies—such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation—as part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration by analyzing econometrically micro-data on revealed landowner preferences, modeling six major private land uses in a comprehensive analysis of the contiguous United States. The econometric estimates are used to simulate landowner responses to sequestration policies. We treat key commodity prices as endogenous and predict carbon storage changes with a carbon sink model. Our estimated sequestration costs exceed those from previous engineering cost analyses and sectoral optimization models. Our estimated sequestration supply function is similar to the carbon abatement supply function from energy-based analyses, suggesting that forest-based carbon sequestration merits consideration in a cost-effective portfolio of domestic US climate change strategies.

Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function

When and if the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it will be necessary to decide whether carbon sequestration policies - such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation - should be part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration. In contrast with previous approaches, we econometrically examine micro-data on revealed landowner preferences, modeling six major private land uses in a comprehensive analysis of the contiguous United States. The econometric estimates are used to simulate landowner responses to sequestration policies. Key commodity prices are treated as endogenous and a carbon sink model is used to predict changes in carbon storage. Our estimated marginal costs of carbon sequestration are greater than those from previous engineering cost analyses and sectoral optimization models. Our estimated sequestration supply function is similar to the carbon abatement supply function from energy-based analyses, suggesting that forest-based carbon sequestration merits inclusion in a cost-effective portfolio of domestic U.S. climate change strategies.

Potential carbon mitigation and income in developing countries from changes in use and management of agricultural and forest lands.

The many opportunities for mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions in developing countries include reforesting degraded lands, implementing sustainable agricultural practices on existing lands and slowing tropical deforestation. This analysis shows that over the next 10 years, 48 major tropical and subtropical developing countries have the potential to reduce the atmospheric carbon burden by about 2.3 billion tonnes of carbon. Given a central price of $10 per tonne of carbon and a discount rate of 3%, this mitigation would generate a net present value of about $16.8 billion collectively for these countries. Achieving these potentials would require a significant global effort, covering more than 50 million hectares of land, to implement carbon-friendly practices in agriculture, forest and previously forested lands. These estimates of host-country income potentials do not consider that outside financial investment may or may not be available. Our calculations take no account of the additional benefits of carbon sequestration in forest soils undergoing reforestation, increased use of biomass and reduced use of fossil-fuel inputs and reduced agricultural emissions. In all events, realizing these incomes would necessitate substantially greater policy support and investment in sustainable land uses than is currently the case.

The Kyoto protocol and payments for tropical forest:: An interdisciplinary method for estimating carbon-offset supply and increasing the feasibility of a carbon market under the CDM

Protecting tropical forests under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could reduce the cost of emissions limitations set in Kyoto. However, while society must soon decide whether or not to use tropical forest-based offsets, evidence regarding tropical carbon sinks is sparse. This paper presents a general method for constructing an integrated model (based on detailed historical, remote sensing and field data) that can produce land-use and carbon baselines, predict carbon sequestration supply to a carbon-offsets market and also help to evaluate optimal market rules. Creating such integrated models requires close collaboration between social and natural scientists. Our project combines varied disciplinary expertise (in economics, ecology and geography) with local knowledge in order to create high-quality, empirically grounded, integrated models for Costa Rica.