Carbon Mitigation Targets Research Articles

Illuminating the contributions of fintech, mineral resources, and foreign direct investment in alleviating environmental issues: An empirical analysis

The present study uncovers the complex relationship of financial technology (Fintech), mineral resources, and foreign direct investment with carbon mitigation by considering twenty economies in the Middle Eastern and North African region. Employing the CS-ARDL model, we meticulously account for time-invariant characteristics and distill the net impact of these key factors on carbon emissions. Our analysis spans the two-decade period from 2000 to 2020 and the robust empirical findings illuminate a promising way forward to mitigate environmental challenges for the region under consideration. Notably, according to the results, mineral resources emerge as a linchpin in promoting clean energy adoption across the selected economies and ultimately helping to control carbon emissions. Furthermore, fintech and FDI both are significant sources of increased funds availability for environmentally friendly projects and those emerging as catalysts for accelerating clean energy adoption and achieving carbon mitigation targets in the region. In short, our study underscores the pivotal role played by fintech, mineral resources, and FDI inflow in shaping the energy landscape for a clean environment. The study suggests that improvement in fintech promotes access to capital, promotes sustainable development, fosters knowledge and wise use of mineral resources, and ultimately helps to improve environment quality. In conclusion, this study offers valuable policy recommendations to empower policymakers in charting the sustainable use of mineral resources and advancing the fintech future for a healthy natural environment for the MENA region.

Assessing decarbonization: a comparison of the green sacrifice ratio for China and India

ABSTRACT Carbon mitigation and net-zero targets have an important place on the political agenda for all countries. Countries have been seeking to decouple economic growth and carbon emissions to achieve decarbonization. However, there is a cost of the decarbonization of economies, which can be called as Green Sacrifice Ratio (GSR), and this is critical for developing countries because they have been in the growing stage. By considering the critical role of GSR in achieving net-zero emissions by decarbonizing economies, the study comparatively examines how much environmental quality should be sacrificed for per capita economic growth in China and India. In line with this purpose, the study uses the Fourier-Shin cointegration test and various time series estimators with Fourier approximations for the period from 1989/Q1 to 2022/Q4. Estimation results are as follows: (i) all variables follow the non-stationary process, (ii) the long-run relationship exists between variables, and (iii) Estimation results show that GSR is 0.65% for China and 0.78% for India. Therefore, China and India sacrifice a significant amount of environmental quality for a 1% increase in per capita income level. Also, the ecological cost of increasing economic welfare in India is higher with regard to China. Besides, the results are robust according to the alternative method. Thus, the study recommends that both Chinese and Indian policymakers should revise the economic expansion structure with green growth strategies to prevent irreversible environmental degradation due to higher economic growth.

Mixed success for carbon payments and subsidies in support of forest restoration in the neotropics

Restoration of forests in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has the potential to contribute to international carbon mitigation targets. However, high upfront costs and variable cashflows are obstacles for many landholders. Carbon payments have been promoted as a mechanism to incentivize restoration and economists have suggested cost-sharing by third parties to reduce financial burdens of restoration. Yet empirical evidence to support this theory, based on robust, dynamic field sampling is lacking. Here we use large, long-term datasets from Panama to evaluate the financial prospects of three forest restoration methods under different cost-sharing and carbon payment designs where income is generated through timber harvests. We show some, but not all options are economically viable. Further work combining growth and survival data from field trials with more sophisticated financial analyses is essential to understanding barriers and realizing the potential of forest restoration in LMICs to help meet global carbon mitigation commitments.

The decarbonization pathway of power system by high-resolution model under different policy scenarios in China

Emission reduction from the coal power sector is vital for achieving carbon mitigation targets in China. In this study, we explore feasible pathways and economic cost of power system transition under different policy combination scenarios. We use a high-resolution power system model which is coupled with capacity planning and operation simulation to project the transition. We find that: (1) Without other policies, the single carbon market policy will lead to a potential rebound in emissions during the transition of the power industry. After 2045, a reduction in the proportion of free quotas and an increase in emission cost will enhance the emission reduction effectiveness of the market. (2) When policy measures are not sufficiently robust, even with a high proportion (80%) of renewable energy deployment requirement, there is a risk of rebound in coal power investments and subsequent emissions after 2050. (3) The achievement of carbon neutrality can only be realized by constraining the carbon budget within the boundaries of climate goals and other policy constraints. And carbon neutrality, compared to a high proportion (90%) of clean energy constraints, would increase total costs by at least 6%.

Spatial Optimization of Land Use Pattern toward Carbon Mitigation Targets—A Study in Guangzhou

Global climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world, and the spatial optimization of land use patterns has been regarded as critical in realizing carbon mitigation. In this study, the linear programming model and the Markov Chain model are integrated in different scenarios to optimize land use structure for low-carbon development. The land use pattern is then simulated through the adjusted convolutional neural network and cellular automata model, taking Guangzhou City as the case study area. The results reveal that construction land with high economic efficiency will increase its area, and the reaming types will experience slight changes, in 2035 in the natural development scenario and the economic priority scenario. Ecological land such as forest land, grassland, and water is partly occupied by construction land in the urban–rural fringe areas. The total carbon emissions decrease by 2.32% and 1.57% in these two scenarios. In the low-carbon-oriented scenario, the expansion of construction land is restricted, and the forest land and grassland undergo great expansion. The total carbon emission decreases by 18.95%—a figure much larger than that in the natural development scenario and the economic priority scenario. Our paper embeds the needs and constraints in land spatial planning into the spatial optimization of the land use pattern, which provides valuable references for low-carbon city development in the future.

Can China achieve carbon neutrality without power shortage? A substitutability perspective

The thermal power sector is responsible for more than 40% of China's carbon mitigation targets, making it critical in achieving carbon neutrality. However, the adoption of the “one-size-fits-all” discontinuation and “campaign-style” mitigation, driven by mandatory national regulatory constraints, has triggered pressing livelihoods and economic shocks such as electricity restrictions and shortages. To balance the carbon mitigation targets with electricity security in China, this study utilizes Morishima elasticity of substitution to identify heterogeneous production strategies for each plant under carbon neutrality. More specifically, how thermal power plants respond to carbon reduction targets. Results indicate that almost half of the thermal power plants could reconcile national targets with corporate profits, while the remaining plants could only meet national binding targets by reducing production. Additionally, about 20% of inefficient plants will opt to transfer emissions, such as increasing weakly regulated emissions, to secure revenue. The basic characteristics of thermal power plants under different production strategies are also analyzed. Finally, this study discusses how to develop electricity-carbon synergies and prevent productive speculation under the carbon neutrality transition from the perspectives of corporate production and tax deferment policy, and propose corresponding policy suggestions.

The energy conservation and emission reduction potentials in China's iron and steel industry: Considering the uncertainty factor

Energy conservation and emission reduction in China's iron and steel industry are crucial for mitigating its environmental pressures. However, uncertainties raise significant management risks when setting energy conservation and emission reduction pathways. Therefore, this paper explores the energy conservation and emission reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry. A 10,000-time Latin hypercube sampling is conducted to simulate the distribution of five types of uncertain factors. In addition, this study uses a Sobol’ sensitivity analysis method to recognize the most sensitive factor, and, in specific, analyzes the cost-effectiveness of the technologies via conservation supply curve. The results show that: (1) The uncertainty factors lead to significant fluctuate to the results. In particular, energy conservation will fluctuate by 18.24–40.77%, carbon mitigation by 28.96–55.34%, and SO2, NOx and PM mitigation effects will fluctuate by 48.32–79.53%, 22.12–51.77% and 23.92–50.03%, respectively. (2) Structure and equipment parameters are more the most sensitive to energy conservation and carbon mitigation targets, whose Sobol’ indices are beyond 0.45. End-of-pipe treatment technologies are more the most sensitive to SO2 and PM reduction targets with Sobol’ indices above 0.9. Penetration rates and equipment parameters are more the most sensitive to economic cost targets above 0.8. (3) In 2035, 33 energy conservation technologies and 34 emission reduction technologies will be cost-effective, and they can achieve 69.05–70.14% of energy conservation and 79.03–81.58% of emission reduction potentials, respectively. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations such as changing the raw material/product structure, upgrading equipment, cooperating actively, and introducing economic incentives and guidelines for technology application.

The impact of international technical cooperation in new energy industry on carbon emissions: evidence from the top 30 countries in the global innovation index.

International cooperation has become a global consensus to solve environmental problems. This paper selects the top 30 countries in the global innovation index as the research sample, based on Patent Cooperation Treaties (PCT) data jointly applied in the field of new energy, constructs the international technical cooperation network, and uses the fixed effect panel regression model to verify the influence of international technical cooperation of new energy industry on carbon emission intensity. The results show that the USA, Germany, the UK, France, and the Netherlands are at the center of the network. International technological cooperation in new energy industry has a significant negative impact on carbon emission intensity. The convening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagenhas accelerated global industrial upgrading, and the effect of international technical cooperation in new energy on carbon emission reduction has been strengthened. In addition, the level of economic development, international trade, and research and development (R&D) are also important factors affecting carbon emission intensity. Countries with high network centrality should give full play to their network influence to promote global cooperation in the field of new energy and achieve carbon mitigation targets by signing more environmental agreements.

Is crushed concrete carbonation significant enough to be considered as a carbon mitigation strategy?

When addressing concrete carbonation as a carbon mitigation option, studies leave out the effect that a temporal difference between the CO2 emissions and uptake happening throughout concrete’s life cycle have on climate change. In this study, the role played by carbonation on concrete’s carbon mitigation potential is investigated through a dynamic life cycle assessment, to properly position CO2 uptake and release. The carbon balance in concrete structures built and demolished from 2018 to 2050 is modelled as a case study. The potential uptake due to crushed concrete carbonation is over 9% of the cumulative global warming effect of concrete manufacturing. It is comparable to the reduction potential of the most promising strategy, namely replacing clinker, totaling 12%. If stimulated in a wide scale, crushed concrete carbonation can push the industry towards meeting carbon mitigation targets faster. Future environmental impact assessments should rely on dynamic models to increasingly consider this phenomenon.

Innovative urban design for low‐carbon sustainable development: Evidence from China's innovative city pilots

AbstractAs a sustainable urban design, innovative city pilots offer a way for developing countries to achieve carbon reduction goals. To date, a total of 78 innovative cities have been established in China. In this context, this study examines whether innovative city construction can contribute to meet carbon mitigation targets. On the basis of expounding the mechanism of innovative city pilots on carbon emissions, the multiperiod difference in differences method is applied to investigate the average treatment effect and the mediating effect model is used to validate the transmission mechanism. The results show that innovative city pilots significantly reduce carbon emissions. Compared to nonpilot areas, the pilot areas reduce carbon emissions by 15%. Specifically, technological innovation is the primary channels for innovative city pilots to influence carbon emissions but industrial structure effect does not work. Furthermore, the superimposed effect analysis indicates that the carbon reduction effect of the city as both innovative city pilot and other pilot (low‐carbon pilot, broadband China pilot, intellectual property pilot) is greater than that of a single pilot. Results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that carbon mitigation efforts are more effective in central and western cities, nonmega cities, resource‐based cities and cities with high human capital and financial development. In addition, the pilot policy has a positive spatial spillover effects on carbon reduction in cities with geographical proximity and economic ties. These results can contribute to precisely assess the environment benefits of promoting innovative city pilot projects and provide a decision making reference for fighting climate change in the era of knowledge economy.

Multi-objective optimization of coal-fired power units considering deep peaking regulation in China.

China states to build new power system dominated by new energy power to promote the targets for peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Peaking regulation ancillary services provided by coal-fired power units is an essential solution to mitigate the volatility and instability of large-scale renewable energy for China's specific power mix. However, when the coal-fired power units operate at a low power output, the intensity of both coal consumption and carbon emissions gradually rises with the falling output rate. Moreover, cutting down the power output of coal-fired units frequently will damage the technical life. Given the impacts of power market reform and carbon mitigation targets, whether to participate in the energy market or the peaking regulation ancillary service market is an urgent issue for coal-fired power units. Considering the discrepancy in costs and benefits of various units at different output rate, this paper proposes a multi-objective optimization model to solve the issue from the perspective of the coal-fired power generators, in which both economic profit and carbon reduction goals are coordinated. Sequential quadratic programming is adopted to solve the nonlinear optimization problem. In order to study the difference in the decisions made by varied technical units, 7 different types of units are analyzed in the case study. The scenarios analysis indicates that large-capacity and new coal-fired power units are better to participate in energy market since it can give full play to the advantage of higher generation efficiency, while the small-capacity ones are suitable to provide flexible service in the peaking regulation ancillary service market. Besides, simple low-carbon objective will burden the cost of coal-fired power units and challenge the sustainable transition of power system. Hence, the power system should balance both economic profit of generators and national carbon mitigation targets during the low-carbon transition.

Co-benefits of regionally-differentiated carbon pricing policies across China

ABSTRACT Regional carbon pricing policies focused on specific regions can be used to address local environmental problems. Using China as an example, we extend the spatial coverage of regionally designed policies to cover the entire nation and estimate the costs and benefits of these policies. Based on spatial correlation analysis, a multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium, and an extended response surface model with polynomial functions, we explore the co-benefits of regionally-differentiated carbon pricing policies in terms of their impacts on environmental justice and income (in)equality in China by 2060. One national and three regionally-differentiated carbon pricing policies are developed and explored based on 2005–2019 data, including spatial-cluster-level data on PM2.5 concentrations and CO2 emissions and data on average per capita GDP. Results show that the carbon pricing policies achieve China’s 2030 carbon mitigation targets and contribute to the 2060 targets of carbon neutrality. However, regionally-differentiated carbon pricing policies result in greater CO2 and air pollutant reductions in their targeted regions compared with the national policy, as CO2 emissions in these regions are priced at higher levels. Regionally-differentiated carbon pricing policy, based on the historical spatial cluster level of PM2.5 concentrations, results in larger reductions in average PM2.5 concentrations in 30 provinces in 2060 compared with other policy scenarios. This policy also promotes improvements in environmental quality and justice across China, which generates additional human health benefits. Furthermore, regional carbon pricing policy has the potential to significantly narrow the income gap between regions. Key policy insights Regionally-differentiated carbon pricing policy designed based on the historical spatial cluster level of PM2.5 concentrations, compared with national policy, generates significant environmental and socio-economic co-benefits in the form of improved environmental justice and reduced income inequality. Regionally-differentiated carbon pricing policy also results in greater reductions in air pollution at a lower cost relative to a national policy and this will generate human health benefits. Results provide insights for other developing countries, especially those that have large disparities in regional economic development, regional income inequality, and air pollution problems.

Selection of Energy Upgrades for Canadian Single-Detached Residential Households Based on Occupancy Profile

The use of energy efficient building systems can play a key role in reducing energy consumption and the adverse impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. The occupancy profile of residential dwellings has a notable influence on the effectiveness of selecting appropriate energy upgrade retrofits. Building simulation models can be integrated to determine the impact of independent occupancy profile in realizing a building’s carbon mitigation target. In this paper, the most desirable energy upgrade retrofits are suggested for three different occupancy profiles by considering important economic parameters, such as the initial investment, payback period and environmental parameter such as GHG emissions. The three occupancy profiles considered were a single adult, couple without children and couple with children. For this purpose, a calibrated energy model was developed for a single-detached family household in British Columbia, Canada, which was equipped with power sensors for monitoring the real time energy data. From the calibrated energy model, three different energy upgrade retrofits (solar, window, and wall/roof insulation) were modelled for the occupancy profiles chosen and the most suitable energy upgrades were suggested. The results show that solar panels contributed the most in energy cost reduction and upgraded windows had the least GHG emission. With suitable financial initiative, the combination of all the three energy upgrades can be the best option in terms of environment and economy.

Keeping Track of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Progress and Targets in 167 Cities Worldwide

Actions in cities shape the outcome of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation and our climate change response. Accurate and consistent carbon inventories are essential for identifying the main sources of emissions and global comparison of carbon reduction progress and would help inform targeted policies for low-carbon transition. To identify the effectiveness of historical carbon reduction policies, our study conducted energy-related GHG emission inventories for 167 globally distributed cities with information from different sectors, and assessed the city-scale near-term, mid-term, and long-term goals carbon mitigation targets from 2020 to 2050. On this basis, we propose mitigation strategies to achieve local and global climate targets. We found that, although Asian cities are the biggest carbon emitters in totals, the per capita GHG emissions of cities in developed countries are still generally higher than that in developing countries. In terms of sectors, the GHG emissions from the stationary energy uses (such as residential, commercial, and industrial buildings) and transportation sector contributed the most. However, cities in more developed nations have been inclined to set absolute carbon reduction targets before 2050, while intensity reduction target has been largely set for cities at the stage of rapid economic growth and accelerated industrialization. More ambitious and easily-tracked climate targets should be proposed by cities and more effective measures of reducing GHG emissions are required to stay consistent with the global ambition of climate change mitigation.

Impacts of China's Emissions Trading Scheme on the National and Hong Kong Economies: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

In this study, we estimate the economic impacts of China's official carbon-mitigation targets, in connection with Hong Kong's potential participation in a proposed national emissions trading scheme. We find that moderate intensity-reduction targets emulating China's pledged Paris Agreement commitment would incur much larger policy-compliance costs in Hong Kong (0.1–2.5% of baseline gross domestic product) than in Mainland China (0.1–0.7%) in each of the modeled years 2021 to 2030 when each economy operates its own independent carbon market. By comparison, an integrated carbon market enables Hong Kong to achieve the same reduction goal at up to 78% lower costs compared to an independent market, and this is achieved without significantly affecting the Mainland's economy. These savings in compliance costs for Hong Kong are greater when pre-integration local carbon prices in both economies are subject to a larger gap. Effectively, the cheaper pre-integration carbon prices in the Mainland indirectly subsidize the Hong Kong economy in the initial years of the integration scenario, buffering the policy shock. In sum, an integrated carbon market in China would improve overall efficiency at the national level, but the benefits are biased toward Hong Kong. This finding suggests that it is in the city's interest to play a more active role in cross-border collaboration on climate mitigation and emissions trading.JEL classification: C68, Q42, Q52, Q54

Occupant-based energy upgrades selection for Canadian residential buildings based on field energy data and calibrated simulations

Occupant behavior in residential buildings has a direct impact on the effectiveness of energy-saving measures. In order to realize a buildings’ carbon mitigation targets, the impact of individual occupancy profiles needs to be integrated with building simulation models. This paper introduces a decision support framework as a potential solution to make energy performance upgrade choices based on different occupancy profiles. This framework has been demonstrated through a case study of two single-family detached homes in Canada, which were highly instrumented with sensors for monitoring energy input and output. The case studies represented two common occupancy profiles-(1) a family of four (consisting of 2 working adults and 2 teenagers); and (2) a retired couple. Firstly, calibrated energy models were developed by using one-year energy use data collected through an intrusive load monitoring technique. Secondly, energy upgrade combinations were considered for each profile and tested for additional investment, payback period and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Lastly, the most suitable combination of energy upgrade for each profile was ranked using a multi-criteria decision-making method (e.g., TOPSIS). Results indicated that the retired couple used more energy than the family of four and required energy upgrades with usually higher payback periods to achieve the same level of GHG emission reduction. The results of this research are timely for energy policymaking and developing best management practices, which need to be implemented along with the deployment of more stringent building standards and codes.

Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in

Emission reduction from the coal-dominated power sector is vital for achieving China’s carbon mitigation targets. Although the coal expansion has been slowed down due to the cancellation of and delay in new construction, coal-based power was responsible for over one third of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions by 2018. Moreover, with a technical lifetime of over 30 years, current investment in coal-based power could hinder CO2 mitigation until 2050. Therefore, it is important to examine whether the current coal-based power planning aligns with the long-term climate targets. This paper introduces China’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and an ambitious carbon budget along with global pathways well-below 2 degrees that are divided into five integrated assessment models, which are two national and three global models. We compare the models’ results with bottom-up data on current capacity additions and expansion plans to examine if the NDC targets are in line with 2-degree pathways. The key findings are: 1. NDC goals alone are unlikely to lead to significant reductions in coal-based power generation. On the contrary, more plants may be built before 2030; 2. this would require an average of 187–261 TWh of annual coal-based power capacity reduction between 2030 and 2050 to achieve a 2 °C compatible trajectory, which would lead to the stranding of large-scale coal-based power plants; 3. if the reduction in coal power can be brought forward to 2020, the average annual coal-based power reduction required would be 104–155 TWh from 2020 to 2050 and the emissions could peak earlier; 4. early regulations in coal-based power would require accelerated promotion of alternatives between 2020 and 2030, with nuclear, wind and solar power expected to be the most promising alternatives. By presenting the stranding risk and viability of alternatives, we suggest that both the government and enterprises should remain cautious about making new investment in coal-based power sector.

Carbon Mitigation for Industrial Sectors in the Jing-Jin-Ji Urban Agglomeration, China

Industrial companies are responsible for most of the energy consumption and carbon emissions in China’s urban agglomerations. Some scholars have allocated CO2 emissions to China’s industrial sectors in reaching national reduction targets, yet industrial sectors’ burden-sharing problem for carbon mitigation at the provincial level has not been well addressed. Given the goal of realizing China’s national carbon mitigation target by 2030, we applied a nonlinear quota allocation model to obtain the optimal allocation of emission reduction quotas among 37 industrial sectors in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration in China (comprising Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei). Compared to Beijing and Tianjin, the secondary industry in Hebei bears the highest reduction responsibilities, given that Hebei will experience the largest carbon emissions, at 0.42 billion tons in 2030, which is 80.04% of the total emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration. Energy production and heavy manufacturing sectors serve as the major carbon emitters and have relatively high carbon intensities, which indicates that they have significant potential and major responsibilities for impacting carbon mitigation. Based on differences in urban function and development mode, the same industrial sectors in the three provinces have different obligations for emission reductions. This study is vital to allocate reduction responsibilities among industrial sectors and to discrete key sector categories bearing a higher mitigation burden.

A novel energy systems model to explore the role of land use and reforestation in achieving carbon mitigation targets: A Brazil case study

Due to its low global share of direct energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (1–2%), the implications of technological transitions in the agricultural and forestry sector on the energy system have been overlooked. This paper introduces the Agriculture and Land Use Sector module part of the ModUlar energy System Environment (MUSE), a novel energy system simulation model. The study presents a generalisable method that enables energy modellers to characterise agricultural technologies within an energy system modelling framework. Different mechanisation processes were characterised to simulate intensification/extensification transitions in the sector and its wider implications in the energy and land use system aiming at providing reliable non-energy outputs similarly to those found in dedicated land use models. Additionally, a forest growth model has been integrated to explore the role of reforestation alongside decarbonisation measures in the energy system in achieving carbon mitigation pathways. To illustrate the model's capabilities, Brazil is used as case study. Outputs suggest that by 2030 under a 2 °C mitigation scenario, most of Brazil agricultural production would move from ‘transitional’ to ‘modern’ practices, improving productivity and reducing deforestation rates, at the expense of higher energy and fertiliser demand. By mid-century Brazil has the potential to liberate around 24.4 Mha of agricultural land, where large-scale reforestation could have the capacity to sequester around 5.6 GtCO2, alleviating mitigation efforts in the energy system, especially reducing carbon capture and storage technology investments in the industry and power sector.

A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design

The European Union low-carbon strategy includes a range of complementary policies. Potential interactions between instruments and different timing of their implementation can influence the cost and likelihood of achieving the targets. We test the interactions between the three main pillars of the European Union strategy through a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model (GDynEP) with a time horizon of 2050. Main results are: i) going for the unilateral European Union carbon mitigation target without any complementary technological policy will produce large economic losses; ii) by investing in clean energy technologies (energy efficiency and renewable energy) with a carbon tax revenue recycling mechanism, these losses will decrease substantially; iii) when complementary clean energy technology policies are implemented, the optimal timing of binding targets changes; iv) the higher the public support to clean energy technologies, the larger the economic gains in early adoption of challenging abatement targets.