The decarbonization pathway of power system by high-resolution model under different policy scenarios in China

Abstract

Emission reduction from the coal power sector is vital for achieving carbon mitigation targets in China. In this study, we explore feasible pathways and economic cost of power system transition under different policy combination scenarios. We use a high-resolution power system model which is coupled with capacity planning and operation simulation to project the transition. We find that: (1) Without other policies, the single carbon market policy will lead to a potential rebound in emissions during the transition of the power industry. After 2045, a reduction in the proportion of free quotas and an increase in emission cost will enhance the emission reduction effectiveness of the market. (2) When policy measures are not sufficiently robust, even with a high proportion (80%) of renewable energy deployment requirement, there is a risk of rebound in coal power investments and subsequent emissions after 2050. (3) The achievement of carbon neutrality can only be realized by constraining the carbon budget within the boundaries of climate goals and other policy constraints. And carbon neutrality, compared to a high proportion (90%) of clean energy constraints, would increase total costs by at least 6%.