Greenhouse Gas Research Articles

Enhancing Alaskan wildfire prediction and carbon flux estimation: A two-stage deep learning approach within a process-based model

Abstract Wildfires in boreal forests release substantial amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. However, current land-surface models are limited in their representation of fire processes, including their ignition and spread. This study thus developed FireDL, a novel data-driven machine-learning model for the prediction of natural wildfires, and combined it with a land-surface model to better understand the impact of fire on carbon fluxes. FireDL has a two-stage deep learning structure that sequentially combines a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm and an artificial neural network (ANN). Preliminary random forest analysis identified fire duration as an important factor in predicting the burned area. Thus, in FireDL, the LSTM algorithm was employed to predict fire occurrence and duration, utilizing lightning, vegetation, and climate datasets. Subsequently, the ANN predicted the total burned area using the LTSM-derived fire duration predictions and climate datasets as input. FireDL produced a robust performance in predicting large fires (>10,000 ha), achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.72. The daily-scaled burned area predictions derived from FireDL were integrated into the Community Land Model version 5 – Biogeochemistry (CLM5-BGC) to produce CLM5-BGC-FireDL. This integration considerably improved carbon emission estimations. Notably, the total net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimated using CLM5-BGC-FireDL in 2019, the year with the highest recorded burned area during our study, was twice that estimated using the standard CLM5-BGC. Discrepancies in the NEE can significantly influence atmospheric CO2 levels, highlighting the importance of our fire prediction model in forecasting the burned area and carbon emissions. The use of FireDL with future climate scenarios is thus anticipated to yield valuable insights into ecosystem management and climate change mitigation strategies.

Research on the Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Resilience of Resource-based Cities: Taking Liaoning Province, China as an Example

Research on the Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Resilience of Resource-based Cities: Taking Liaoning Province, China as an Example

The Synergy Between CO2 and Air Pollution Emissions in Chinese Cities by 2060: An Assessment Based on the Emissions Inventory and Dynamic Projection Model

Synergizing air pollution control and climate change mitigation has been of significant academic and policy concern. The synergy between air pollution and carbon emissions is one of the measures to understand the characteristics and process of the air pollution–carbon synergistic control, which will also provide valuable information for collaboratively achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (such as SDGs 11 and 13). This study establishes a systematic framework integrating emissions inventory and projection models, correlation mining and typology analysis methods to predictively evaluate the synergy and comprehensive coordination between air pollution and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Chinese cities by 2030, 2050, and 2060 under different policy scenarios for air pollution and CO2 emissions control. The results reveal the significant effects of synergistically implementing clean air and aggressive carbon-reducing policies on mitigating air pollution and CO2 emissions. Under the On-time Peak-Net Zero-Clean Air and Early Peak-Net Zero-Clean Air scenarios, the total reduction and synergy for air pollution and CO2 emissions will be more significant, particularly by 2050 and 2060. This study is the first to integrate scenario projection and synergy evaluation in air pollution and CO2 research, providing a novel supplement to the air pollution–climate change synergy methodology based on co-benefit estimation. The methods and findings will also contribute to measuring the achievement and analyzing the interaction of the SDGs.

Analysis and Performance Evaluation of Decoupling Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Economic Development in Chinese Agriculture

Analysis and Performance Evaluation of Decoupling Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Economic Development in Chinese Agriculture

Sustainability Assessment of Agricultural Waste Biogas Production System in China Based on Emergy and Carbon Evaluation Methods

Biogas production is widely recognized as an effective solution for addressing agricultural waste treatment in rural areas. However, its development is often hindered by economic and environmental constraints. This study combined emergy evaluation and carbon footprint analysis methods to establish a new environmental radius assessment model for evaluating the ecological performance and optimization direction of an agricultural waste biogas production system, using a biogas production company in China as a case study. Compared with the straw return model and straw power generation model, the results of emergy indicators and carbon accounting showed that the biogas production model had a lower environmental load and higher economic output and level of emergy sustainability. Additionally, the biogas production system was found to reduce 0.47 kg of carbon emissions per 1 kg of agricultural waste utilized. The application of the biogas production model in rural areas had high ecological sustainability and carbon emission reduction benefits. Environmental radius assessment results confirmed that the reasonable changes in resource collection distance could further enhance the ecological sustainability, carbon mitigation ability, and economic benefits of the biogas production system. The environmental radius assessment method offers a new approach to the location planning of agricultural waste biogas utilization companies in rural areas.

Observed carbon decoupling of subnational production insufficient for net-zero goal by 2050

Historically, economic growth has been closely coupled to carbon emissions responsible for climate change, but to stabilize global mean temperature, net-zero carbon emissions are necessary. Some economies have begun to reduce emissions while continuing to grow, but this decoupling is not fast enough to achieve global climate targets. Subnational climate actions seem to be crucial for the achievement of these targets. Here, we uncover the effectiveness of subnational efforts by estimating decoupling rates and CO2 emission intensities over the last three decades for over 1,500 subnational regions, encompassing 85% of global emissions, using global data on reported economic output and gridded production-based emissions. Thirty percent of regions with available data have fully decoupled, with higher-income and historically carbon-intensive regions exhibiting higher rates of decoupling and declining emission intensity. Countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development with greater spending on subnational climate actions show higher decoupling rates, as do subnational regions in EU countries where climate policies have been implemented, highlighting the effectiveness of subnational policies. Moreover, subnational analysis reveals greater variance of decoupling rates within national boundaries than between them and that countries with weaker governance typically show higher variance of decoupling within their borders. If recent rates of production-based carbon decoupling continue, less than half of subnational regions would reach net-zero before 2050, even when accounting for observed acceleration via socioeconomic development and assuming no interregional carbon leakage.

The compounding effect of mandatory GHG emissions disclosure and voluntary ESG disclosure on firm value in Korea

PurposeThis study attempts to examine the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions disclosure and its compounding effect with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on firm value in Korea. This study focuses on the unique institutional setting in Korea that implements mandatory GHG emissions disclosure and voluntary ESG disclosure.Design/methodology/approachUsing a dataset comprising 25,968 firm-year observations from publicly listed Korean firms from 2000 to 2021, we applied an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model to test hypotheses.FindingsThe results show that, in a voluntary disclosure regime, ESG disclosure has a positive impact, whereas in a mandatory disclosure regime, GHG emissions disclosure has a negative impact on firm value. The results also indicate that when a firm discloses both its GHG emissions and ESG performance information, the voluntary disclosure of ESG information synergistically mitigates the adverse effects of mandatory disclosure of GHG emissions information. This synergy contributes significantly to enhancing the firm’s overall value. The findings indicate that a firm can enhance its value by proactively disclosing ESG information, especially when it is compulsorily required to report GHG emissions data.Originality/valueThis study investigated the effect of corporate non-financial disclosure on firm value by shedding light on the differential attributes between voluntary and mandatory disclosures and between quantitative and qualitative information.

10.F. Skills building seminar: How public health professionals can use the right to health to advance climate action and justice

Abstract The climate crisis is the single biggest threat to global health, peace and security, a crisis multiplier, and a significant driver of health inequalities. In many areas of public health policy, legal action and litigation have delivered significant and long-lasting impacts. In April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights concluded that Switzerland had violated the right to health of older women in Switzerland by failing to meet its past greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets and set future GHG targets. State-of-the-art public health evidence provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change were vital to the Court’s decision, which has implications for all Council of Europe member states, and globally. Rigorous scientific evidence of health harms, including but not limited to heat stress, can inform other climate litigation grounded in the right to health. Public health researchers and practitioners are essential to this litigation. In recognition of this emerging role, in November 2023 the Faculty of Public Health (UK) and the Aletta Jacobs School of Public Health launched ‘From analysis to action: climate change litigation. A guide for public health professionals’ at the 16th European Public Health Conference. The guide was also endorsed by ASPHER, ASPPH, EUPHA, Global Consortium on Climate and Health Education, Global Network for Academic Public Health, Lancet Countdown, Public Health Ethics and Law Global Network, and WFPHA. This workshop will familiarise participants with recent rights-based climate litigation and explore the role of public health professionals in identifying, collecting, storing, assessing and presenting this evidence in a form that is accessible to court officials without medical training. First, there will be short presentations on 1) the role of the law in climate action and the role of scientific evidence of health harms in human rights litigation, and 2) How to collect and use scientific evidence of health harms in climate litigation (15 minutes). Small group discussions will follow, addressing questions such as: The health harm of climate change-related heat stress was a major factor in the 2024 decision of the European Court of Human Rights in KlimaSeniorinnen v. Switzerland: What other health harms could support future cases? In what population groups? What opportunities do you see today for public health researchers and practitioners to compile such evidence to make the most compelling case? How can public health researchers and practitioners work more closely with legal experts and affected communities to bring this evidence to court? (20 minutes) The workshop will conclude with a plenary discussion of these questions and the small group responses. (25 minutes) As a result of the workshop, participants will be better prepared to identify opportunities to contribute compelling evidence of health harms in climate litigation. Key messages • Rigorous scientific evidence of climate change-related health harms is proving central to success in rights-based climate litigation. • Public health professionals have a key role in identifying and presenting compelling evidence of health harms in climate litigation. Speakers/Panelists David Patterson University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands Farhang Tahzib Faculty of Public Health, Haywards Heath, UK

Energy Price Distortions and Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency: Evidence from China’s Energy-Intensive Sectors

With a primary focus of achieving carbon neutrality, the energy-intensive industrial sectors (EIIs) contribute to more than half of China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. During the process of China’s rapid economic development, distorted energy prices gradually became the main obstacle to energy conservation and emission reductions in the EIIs. Therefore, this study focused on determining the mechanisms affecting the energy price distortions of carbon emission efficiency (CEE) in China’s EIIs. Based on a stochastic frontier analysis, the changing trend of CEE in China’s EIIs was evaluated. The channels impacting the energy price distortions of CEE were further analyzed by a mediating effect and moderated mediating effect model. The main contributions and findings include the following: energy price distortions have a significant negative impact on CEE by suppressing technological innovations and hindering the restructuring of energy consumption; governmental environmental regulatory policies mitigate their suppressing effect on technological innovations and reduce the preventing effect by improving the energy consumption structure. The results suggest that market-based price reforms and moderate environmental regulation by the government could help to improve CEE in China’s EIIs. These findings are of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and achieving carbon neutrality.

ASSESSING PROGRESS TOWARDS A CIRCULAR CARBON ECONOMY IN THE G20 COUNTRIES

As cornerstones of worldwide sustainable development, the circular economy and the circular carbon economy are profoundly interrelated. However, opinions differ on how to optimize the circular economy towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This article aims to investigate the different levels of readiness for the circular carbon economy within G20 member countries in the domain of economic efficiency. In that regard, a selection of circular carbon economy sub-indicators has been analysed. Through the use of secondary data, tendencies towards change in this variability were found. The degree of adoption of a circular carbon economy differs among the G20 economies. In terms of the various factors considered in the G20 member countries, the current analysis has determined that there continue to be substantial differences between the best performers and their enabling factors.

Concretes meeting the requirements of sustainable construction

The article concerns the production of lightweight geopolymer concretes based on raw materials from alkali-activated waste, which is consistent with the doctrine of sustainable construction. Fly ash, which is the main component of these geopolymer composites, constitutes energy waste and causes lower emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants than traditional cement. The article presents the optimisation of the geopolymer concrete recipe with different dosages of fly ash (200, 300, 400, 500, 600 and 700 kg/m3) and two recipes, the first of which is based on the use of fly ash aggregate, the largest fraction of which was subjected to surface impregnation, and the second one is based on the use of aggregate without any impregnation. Both recipes use an alkaline solution for alkaline activation with a concentration of 6 mol/dm3. Compressive strength tests and apparent density were carried out on the samples. The adequacy of the use of surface impregnation has been demonstrated in the case of low fly ash content (<500 kg/m3), and the optimal recipe based on fly ash in the amount of 600 kg/m3 was indicated.

Effects of Earthworm Density on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Constructed Wetlands with Different Plant Configurations

Effects of Earthworm Density on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Constructed Wetlands with Different Plant Configurations

Control Structures for Combined H2/Electricity from Offshore Wind Turbines

Wind energy proves to be a highly favourable choice for electricity generation due to its clean and renewable nature, and is playing a significant role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Offshore wind turbine systems have gained widespread popularity as they can capitalise on elevated and consistent wind speeds surpassing those found in onshore locations, resulting in increased energy efficiency. Furthermore, offshore wind power possesses the potential to emerge as a significant electricity source for the production of green hydrogen. As water electrolysis technology for hydrogen production continues to advance, utilizing offshore wind power for hydrogen generation is becoming more economically viable and practical. Offshore wind power with higher wind speeds in combination with efficient control structures presents an attractive option for electricity generation and hydrogen co-production. This paper aims to present and evaluate four different production structures for combined H2/energy generation from offshore wind turbines. Previous research studies in this area often overlook control structures and lack information on power converter operations. In contrast, this article studies control structures that enable proper functionality and ensure adequate interoperability, enhancing the reliability of renewable energy integration. Each structure, including both wind turbines and electrolyser, is described in detail, along with the corresponding controllers. Simulation results are presented for each structure and controller to demonstrate their effective operation.

Decarbonizing Public Transportation: A Multi-Criteria Comparative Analysis of Battery Electric Buses and Fuel Cell Electric Buses

To combat global warming, many industrialized countries have announced plans to ban vehicles powered by fossil fuel in the near future. In alignment with this global initiative, many countries across the globe are committed to decarbonizing their public transportation sector, which significantly contributes to increased greenhouse gas emissions. A promising strategy to achieve this goal is the adoption of electric buses, specifically battery electric buses and fuel cell electric buses. Each technology offers distinct advantages and drawbacks, making the decision-making process complex. This research aims to answer two critical questions: What is the optimal choice for decarbonizing the bus transportation sector—electric battery buses or fuel cell electric buses? And what are the best energy carrier pathways for charging or refueling these buses? We propose a methodological framework based on multi-criteria decision-making to address these questions comprehensively. This framework utilizes the entropy weighting and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methodologies to rank alternative bus technologies along with energy carrier pathways. The framework evaluates a range of criteria, including economic viability, energy demand, and environmental aspects. To illustrate the framework, we considered Qatar as a case study. Our results indicate that, with respect to economic viability and energy consumption, the operation of battery electric buses is favored over fuel cell electric buses, regardless of the energy pathway utilized during both the energy production and bus operation phases. However, from an environmental perspective, operating both bus alternatives using energy from green sources provides superior performance compared to when these buses are powered by natural gas sources.

Electrification or Hydrogen? The Challenge of Decarbonizing Industrial (High-Temperature) Process Heat

The decarbonization of industrial process heat is one of the bigger challenges of the global energy transition. Process heating accounts for about 20% of final energy demand in Germany, and the situation is similar in other industrialized nations around the globe. Process heating is indispensable in the manufacturing processes of products and materials encountered every day, ranging from food, beverages, paper and textiles, to metals, ceramics, glass and cement. At the same time, process heating is also responsible for significant greenhouse gas emissions, as it is heavily dependent on fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal. Thus, process heating needs to be decarbonized. This review article explores the challenges of decarbonizing industrial process heat and then discusses two of the most promising options, the use of electric heating technologies and the substitution of fossil fuels with low-carbon hydrogen, in more detail. Both energy carriers have their specific benefits and drawbacks that have to be considered in the context of industrial decarbonization, but also in terms of necessary energy infrastructures. The focus is on high-temperature process heat (>400 °C) in energy-intensive basic materials industries, with examples from the metal and glass industries. Given the heterogeneity of industrial process heating, both electricity and hydrogen will likely be the most prominent energy carriers for decarbonized high-temperature process heat, each with their respective advantages and disadvantages.

A Study of Heavy Road Freight Transport in Poland in the Context of the Pursuit of Sustainable Road Transport

The efficiency of road freight transport determines—to a significant degree—the total environmental footprint and the amount of greenhouse gases and other pollutants released into the atmosphere by inland transport. The rate of empty or partially empty vehicles is one of the key metrics for improvement of the environmental performance of freight road transportation. This paper presents the characteristics of road freight transport in Poland on the basis of data collected by weigh-in-motion stations. Data aggregation for environmental analysis represents a novel aspect of the work. Indicators describing the degree of loading, the share of empty vehicles in traffic, and the share of vehicles of maximum permissible total weight in traffic were determined for a representative group of heavy goods vehicles. Based on the representative load factor value (LFA), a classification of the road section into four groups was proposed. The results obtained show a clear differentiation of the values of the indicators analyzed for individual groups and their variability in the three-year period covered by the analysis. The aggregation method presented can be used to identify the nature of the distribution of the weight categories of the heavy goods vehicles and provide input information for targeted analyses relating to sustainable road transport management and environmental protection. Finally, the grouped LFA values were linked with indicators of energy consumption (ECI) and on-road emissions (EI).

6.Y.1. Defining, measuring, and reducing low-value care in Europe - proposing a new definition and framework

Abstract The EU Expert Group on Health Systems Performance Assessment (HSPA) selected value-based healthcare, with a focus on low-value care, as the work topic for 2023-2024. Against the backdrop of increasing healthcare expenditures and the overall aim to deliver high quality and efficient healthcare, efforts to reduce waste and inefficiencies have long been emerging in health systems worldwide. Value-based healthcare shifts the focus towards improving patient outcomes; the concept of low-value care in particular aims to identify health services that provide little or no health benefits but expose patients to potential harm. The COVID-19 pandemic clearly demonstrated that value-based healthcare is a prerequisite for high-performing health systems and the need to steer resource allocation to those services that maintain or improve health. The reduction in certain elective services observed during the pandemic (e.g. tonsillectomies) indicates that there may be areas for potential dis-investment and reallocation of resources to higher-value care. The pandemic has thereby emphasized the need for identifying and systematizing measurable efforts directed at reducing low-value care. Tackling low-value care can contribute to alleviating health workforce constraints by ensuring that efforts are focused where they are most beneficial, and not on unnecessary services. Engaging and educating the health workforce about low-value care and how to reduce it is a key measure in this direction. What is more, there is increasing awareness about the health sector’s considerable environmental footprint. Reducing low-value care would contribute to less greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and air pollution from the delivery of health services. Despite intensified efforts to address waste and inefficiencies in healthcare in the last decade, the ability of health systems in Europe to identify and reduce low-value care varies. Through the Expert Group’s work, a new comprehensive definition was proposed and a framework to distinguish different types of low-value care was developed as a basis for identifying and tackling low-value care in EU Member States. Indicators to measure low-value care as well as measures to reduce it were collected. This workshop aims to present the findings of the Expert Group´s work on low-value care and to discuss them with conference participants to both raise awareness and identify priority elements for future activities. After a brief introduction on the definition, framework, obstacles and solutions, the panelists will share their views and experiences, followed by a facilitated discussion with the audience. Key messages • A comprehensive definition of low-value care and an accompanying framework for categorizing and identifying low-value care is proposed. • Country experiences with indicators to measure low-value care and strategies to reduce it, as well as related methodological obstacles, offer substantial opportunities for cross-country learning.

Diet Impact Assessment model: an interactive tool for analysing the health, environmental and affordability implications of diets

Abstract Global diets, environmental factors, and health require a holistic approach in public health discourse that takes into account the well-being of both humans and planetary health. Modeling tools have demonstrated being useful to estimate priorities and differences between countries and gain insight into future paths that depend on predetermined priorities. Modeling efforts that include environmental goals indicate the possibility of reducing environmental impacts while both improving food quality and overall health outcomes, especially in high-income settings. The aforementioned forecasts highlight the effectiveness of giving priority to dietary recommendations that lead to better, balanced patterns as the most effective approach to reducing mortality risks and environmental implications. The presentation will introduce the Diet Impact Assessment (DIA) model - a new interactive modelling tool for analysing the health, environmental and affordability implications of diets and dietary change. The tool enables countries to analyse user-specific scenarios of dietary change, and to estimate the health, environmental and cost burden of each scenario in terms of diet costs, avoidable deaths, changes in resource use and compatibility with global environmental targets, including those associated with food-related greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use and fertilizer application. The tool was commissioned by the WHO Regional Office for Europe and is based on analytical frameworks developed by Marco Springmann and colleagues.

Multiple Paths to Green Building Popularization Under the TOE Framework—A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Sets Based on 26 Chinese Cities

Green buildings are a crucial element in achieving sustainable development. The use of green buildings can save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Promoting the widespread adoption of green buildings has become a significant concern in many countries or regions. Although previous studies have identified a range of key factors influencing the promotion of green buildings, further analysis of the combination of these critical factors needs to be conducted. Therefore, based on the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework, this study utilizes the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method to analyze survey data from 26 cities in China, resulting in four high-level configuration paths for the widespread adoption of green buildings. The results indicate that (1) achieving high levels of widespread adoption of green buildings does not depend on any single factor; instead, it relies on the collaborative interaction of multiple elements across technological, organizational, and environmental dimensions; (2) the potential substitution relationships between conditional variables among different configurations within the TOE framework indicate that science and technology expenditure and gross domestic product play more significant roles in the path combinations for the promotion of green buildings; (3) through the study of the substitutive relationships of four configuration paths, it was found that when a city faces challenges in the widespread adoption of green buildings, such as an insufficient number of green building technology patents or underdeveloped green finance incentive systems, it can still achieve efficient green building adoption by formulating corresponding policies and enhancing cultural value guidance for groups like developers, contractors, and consumers. Conversely, the same is true. This paper explores the combination of critical factors in green building adoption, providing insights into addressing the differing foundational conditions of cities in the process.

Sulfide Route to Chromium–Nickel–Molybdenum Ferroalloys for Stainless Steel Production

AbstractNew methods of materials separation and metal production utilizing sulfide chemistries may support a paradigm shift in sustainable metallurgy. We leverage sulfidation with elemental sulfur, aluminothermic reduction, and slag refining to obtain a chromium–nickel–molybdenum ferroalloy and stainless steel using a sulfide-based route without direct greenhouse gas emissions. The absence of carbothermic reduction from the mineral, concentrate, and matte feedstocks tried herein indicates that argon-oxygen-decarburization may no longer be necessary to refine stainless steel products.