Greenhouse Gas Research Articles

Study on the Greenhouse Gas (Ghg) Emissions from Rice Field Under Various Nutrient Management Practices

Modernizing traditional farming practices and intensive cultivation on limited land has increased the reliance on fertilizers to maintain soil health. The study was conducted on rice crop from 2022 to 2023. The seven treatment combinations in which recommended dose of nitrogen applied through neem coated urea (NCU) and nano urea, viz., T1:Control (No nitrogen), T2: 1/3rd as (NCU) as basal) + 1/3rd NCU at active tillering (AT)) + 1/3rdNCU at panicle initiation (PI)), T3: 1/3rd NCU as basal + 1/3rd NCU at AT + 2sprays of NU at maximum tillering -MT and PI) @ 2 ml / litre), T4: 1/3rd NCU as basal + 1/3rd NCU at AT + 1 spray of nano-urea at PI @ 4 ml / litre), T5: 1/4 NCU as basal + 1/4 NCU at AT +2 sprays of nano-urea (at MT and PI) @ 2 ml / litre), T6 :1/3rd NCU as basal + 2 sprays of nano-urea (at AT& PI) @ 2 ml / litre), and T7: 1/3rd NCU as basal + 3 sprays of nano-urea (at AT, PI, and heading) @ 2 ml / litre). The study revealed significant differences in GHG emissions, particularly nitrous oxide (N₂O) and carbon dioxide (CO₂), among the different fertilizer management practices. The highest (p=??) N₂O emissions were observed in the T2 treatment {1/3rd RDN (NCU as basal) + 1/3rd RDN (NCU at active tillering) + 1/3rd RDN (NCU at panicle initiation)} at 352 kgCO₂eha⁻¹, while the lowest emissions were recorded in the T1 treatment (Control – without nitrogen) at 88.4 kgCO₂eha⁻¹. Similarly, CO₂ emissions were also the highest in the T2 treatment at 1376 kgCO₂eha⁻¹, with the control (T1) recording the lowest at 1165 kgCO₂eha⁻¹. Methane emissions, mainly influenced by water regimes, remained consistent across all treatments, each contributing 2112.3 kgCO₂eha⁻¹, due to similar water management across all treatments. Overall, total GHG emissions were significantly higher in fertilized treatments, with the T2 treatment exhibiting the highest total emissions of 3841 kgCO₂eha⁻¹, while the control had the lowest at 3366 kgCO₂eha⁻¹. These findings highlighted the complex trade-offs between enhancing rice yields through improved nutrient management and the associated increase in GHG emissions, emphasizing the need for strategies that balance productivity with environmental sustainability.

Response of grassland greenhouse gas emissions to different human disturbances – A global Meta-analysis

Human disturbances have increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from grassland, worsening global warming. However, the response of grassland GHG (CO2, N2O, and CH4) to human disturbances across various climatic zones requires further elucidation, as does the intricate relationship between GHG emissions and temperature and precipitation. A Meta-analysis of the effects of human disturbances on GHG in grassland over the past 40 years revealed that grazing, fertilization, mowing, and burning significantly influenced the total emissions of N2O, CH4, CO2, and GHG from grassland. However, the light and moderate grazing exerted no substantial impact on CO2 emission flux. In frigid zone grassland, the N2O emission flux was most significantly affected by grazing, the CH4 emission flux affected by fertilization was higher than grazing, and the CO2 emission flux was more sensitive to heavy grazing than severe fertilization. In temperate grassland and savanna, GHG emission flux was most sensitive to fertilization, with CO2 emission flux in savanna being particularly responsive to burning. The effect of increased temperature and precipitation on CO2e in fertilized grassland was approximately double that of grazed grassland and quadruple that of mowed grassland. This study emphasizes the increased effect of human disturbances on GHG emissions in the grassland, especially with the most significant impact of fertilization disturbances on GHG emissions in most grassland areas. Lowering the level of fertilization during grassland management could serve as a crucial step in mitigating GHG emissions from grassland. In summary, rigorous control of disturbance intensity represented an effective strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, albeit potentially impacting grassland productivity. Future endeavors should focus on determining the optimal disturbance intensity to strike a balance amidst these complex effects.

Exploring the Effects of Greenhouse Gases and Particulate Emissions on Quality of Life: A Country-Level Empirical Study

This study explores the relationship between greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate emissions and quality of life. The aim is to understand how emissions affect quality of life globally—across countries, regions, and the global population. Statistical methods were used to examine the impact of various emissions’ indicators on different aspects of quality of life. The study highlights the urgent need for climate change action and encourages policymakers to take strategic steps. Climate change adversely affects numerous aspects of daily life, leading to significant consequences that must be addressed through policy changes and global governance recommendations. Key findings include that higher CO2 and methane emissions and air pollution negatively impact quality of life. CO2 emissions are positively associated with electricity while air pollution is positively associated with GDP and negatively with unemployment. Air pollution has an adverse effect on all three aspects of the children’s welfare dimension of quality of life. These results provide timely and convincing insights for policy- and decision-making aimed at mitigating the impact of emissions on quality of life.

Controls on spatial variation in porewater methane concentrations across United States tidal wetlands

Tidal wetlands can be a substantial sink of greenhouse gases, which can be offset by variable methane (CH4) emissions under certain environmental conditions and anthropogenic interventions. Land managers and policymakers need maps of tidal wetland CH4 properties to make restoration decisions and inventory greenhouse gases. However, there is a mismatch in spatial scale between point-based sampling of porewater CH4 concentration and its predictors, and the coarser resolution mapping products used to upscale these data. We sampled porewater CH4 concentrations, salinity, sulfate (SO42−), ammonium (NH4+), and total Fe using a spatially stratified sampling at 27 tidal wetlands in the United States. We measured porewater CH4 concentrations across four orders of magnitude (0.05 to 852.9 μM). The relative contribution of spatial scale to variance in CH4 was highest between- and within-sites. Porewater CH4 concentration was best explained by SO42− concentration with segmented linear regression (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.54) indicating lesser sensitivity of CH4 to SO42− below 0.62 mM SO42−. Salinity was a significant proxy for CH4 concentration, because it was highly correlated with SO42− (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.909). However, salinity was less predictive of CH4 with segmented linear regression (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.319) relative to SO42−. Neither NH4+, total Fe, nor relative tidal elevation correlated significantly with porewater CH4; however, NH4+ was positively and significantly correlated with SO42− after detrending CH4 for its relationship with SO42− (p < 0.01, R2 = 0.194). Future sampling should focus on within- and between-site environmental gradients to accurately map CH4 variation. Mapping salinity at sub-watershed scales has some potential for mapping SO42−, and by proxy, constraining spatial variation in porewater CH4 concentrations. Additional work is needed to explain site-level deviations from the salinity-sulfate relationship and elucidate other predictors of methanogenesis. This work demonstrates a unique approach to remote team science and the potential to strengthen collaborative research networks.

Monitoring sustainable waste management in OECD countries: A Malmquist productivity approach

Sustainable waste management (SWM) practices are crucial for tackling environmental concerns under a circular economy (CE) scope. Thirty-one OECD countries have been evaluated on their national SWM performance via Malmquist data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology from 2000 to 2021. The Malmquist (MPI) and Malmquist-Luenberger (MLPI) productivity indices are compared based on their total factor productivity (TFP) and its elements (i.e., efficiency and technological changes). Both models have the gross domestic product (GDP) as a desirable output, but MLPI also incorporates municipal solid waste (MSW) generation and greenhouse gases (GHGs, i.e. CO2 and CH4) as undesirable outputs. MLPI has a lower average performance (1.74%) than MPI (4.42%), meaning that the incorporation of waste and GHGs has diminished an OECD country’s SWM performance by 2.5 times on average. In essence, it is innovation that drives TFP in the selected countries. Overall, the synergistic implementation of SWM practices, Malmquist DEA-based methodology, and CE principles is crucial for advancing sustainable development and achieving a circular and resilient future. The manuscript also offers policy implications regarding the need of financial incentives, vocational training, and fostering stakeholder encouragement in the waste sectors to implement CE solutions.

Optimal planning and operation of heterogeneous autonomous and grid-connected microgrids based on multi-criteria techno-economic, environmental, and social indices

Sustainable energy transition involves the execution of recent technologies as a means of ensuring energy access and security. However, the increasing adoption of such technologies, particularly in the presence of diverse constraints, poses significant challenges from a planning perspective. In this context, the multi-objective analysis offers valuable insights for decision-making that balances mutual benefits, as relying solely on a single objective may increase the risk level for stakeholders engaged in coordinated decisions. Based on the real dataset, this study presents a comparative multi-criteria techno-economic, environmental, and social evaluation of site-specific unified standalone and grid-connected hybrid microgrids. The study employs a modified Last Cluster Mean Carried Forward approach for data processing, incorporating the Proprietary Derivative-free Algorithm and Original Grid-Search Algorithm to ensure a standardized comparison. Results reveal the substantial advantages of grid-connected systems over standalone counterparts, with reductions of 12.54 % to 63.73 % and 68.93 % to 89.13 % in terms of Net Present Cost and Levelized Cost of Energy, respectively. Grid-connected systems exhibit superior adaptability, recovering 52.3 % to 98.1 % surplus energy with a Renewable Fraction averaging 77.1 % to 87.9 %. However, these systems were hindered by frequent interruptions and required a minimum capacity shortage of 2.5 % to 3.5 %. Furthermore, grid-connected systems have proved feasible when carbon emissions, forests required to absorb the emissions, and the Social Cost of Carbon Emissions are considered in the range of 4.65–67.13 kiloton (metric), 423.32–6108.53 ha, and $0.24-$3.42 million, respectively. Social analysis and sensitivity analyses are performed to justify the robustness and adaptability. Lastly, the findings are followed by policy recommendations and results validation by comparing prevailing government tariffs and other studies.

The Role of CEO Characteristics in Enhancing Carbon Emission Disclosure: Evidence from Indonesia

This study aims to investigate the influence of CEO characteristics, namely gender, age, and education level, on the disclosure of carbon emissions in manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Data analysis was conducted through three main stages: classical assumption testing, descriptive statistics, and application of multiple linear regression. This data testing utilized the STATA 14.0 statistical tool to evaluate the influence of CEO characteristics on carbon emissions disclosure. This study's results show that female CEOs, older CEO age, and higher CEO education levels significantly increase corporate carbon emissions disclosure. Female CEOs tend to be more concerned about environmental welfare, while older and highly educated CEOs are more understanding and committed to transparency and corporate social responsibility. This study provides practical implications for companies considering executive characteristics to improve their social performance. In addition, the results also emphasize the importance of gender diversity and investment in education to improve carbon emissions disclosure practices.

Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions?

Large volcanic eruptions, such as the prehistoric Yellowstone eruption, induce abrupt global cooling—by some estimates at a rate of ~1 °C/year, lasting for more than a decade. An abrupt global cooling of several °C—even if only lasting a few years—would present immediate, drastic stress on biodiversity and food production. This cooling poses a global catastrophic risk to human society beyond the immediate and direct impact of eruptions. Using a simple climate model, this paper discusses the possibility of counteracting large volcanic cooling with the intentional release of greenhouse gases. Longer-lived compounds (e.g., CO2 and CH4) are unsuitable for this purpose, but selected fluorinated gases (F-gases), either individually or in combinations, could be released at gigaton scale to offset large volcanic cooling substantially. We identify candidate F-gases (e.g., C4F6 and CH3F) and derive radiative and chemical properties of ‘ideal’ compounds matching specific cooling events. Geophysical constraints on manufacturing and stockpiling due to mineral availability are considered, alongside technical and economic implications based on present-day market assumptions. The effects and uncertainty due to atmospheric chemistry related to aerosol injection, F-gases release, and solar dimming are discussed in the context of large volcanic perturbation. The caveats and future steps using more complex chemistry–climate models are discussed. Despite the speculative nature of the magnitude and composition of F-gases, our conceptual analysis has implications for testing the possibility of mitigating certain global catastrophic cooling risks (e.g., nuclear winter, asteroid impact, and glacier transition) via intentional intervention.

Mitigation-driven global heat imbalance in the late 21st century

While the changes in ocean heat uptake in a warming climate have been well explored, the changes in response to climate mitigation efforts remain unclear. Using coupled climate model simulations, here we find that in response to a hypothesized reduction of greenhouse gases in the late 21st century, ocean heat uptake would significantly decline in all ocean basins except the North Atlantic, where a persistently weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation results in sustained heat uptake. These prolonged circulation anomalies further lead to interbasin heat exchanges, characterized by a sustained heat export from the Atlantic to the Southern Ocean and a portion of heat transfer from the Southern Ocean to the Indo-Pacific. Due to ocean heat uptake decline and interbasin heat export, the Southern Ocean experiences the strongest decline in ocean heat storage therefore emerging as the primary heat exchanger, while heat changes in the Indo-Pacific basin are relatively limited.

Assessing temporal dynamics of nitrogen surplus in Indian agriculture: district scale data from 1966 to 2017

Nitrogen (N) is essential for agricultural productivity, yet its surplus poses significant environmental risks. Currently, over half of applied nitrogen is lost, resulting in resource wastage, contributing to increased greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss. Excess nitrogen persists in the environment, contaminating soil and water bodies for decades. Quantifying detailed historical N-surplus estimation in India remains limited, despite national and global-scaled assessments. Our study develops a district-level dataset of annual agricultural N-surplus from 1966-2017, integrating 12 different estimates to address uncertainties arising from multiple data sources and methodological choices across major elements of the N surplus. This dataset supports flexible spatial aggregation, aiding policymakers in implementing effective nitrogen management strategies in India. In addition, we verified our estimates by comparing them with previous studies. This work underscores the importance of setting realistic nitrogen management targets that account for inherent uncertainties, paving the way for sustainable agricultural practices in India, reducing environmental impacts, and boosting productivity.

A behaviour change strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international scientific conferences and meetings

We estimated the environmental impact and financial cost of two exemplar in-person academic events organised by the European academic society, the European Academy of Nursing Science, identified the main sources of these emissions, and then mapped them against the COM-B behaviour change framework of capability, opportunity, motivation to identify strategies that could be applied by organisers and participants to reduce this impact. These events contributed 41 tonnes and 99 tonnes of CO2e emissions per event, a per-participant mean of either 0.324 (SD 0.173) or 0.724, (SD 0.263) tonnes, representing 2 to 5.5 times the daily per-person European average. Distance from home was the largest contributor to emissions. Costs were similar for both events. Our multi-component behavioural change programme includes environmental change, enablement, education, incentivisation and persuasion, by which organisers provide participants with the opportunity for less-polluting behaviour, and enhance participants capabilities and motivation to act on the opportunities provided.

Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Emission Potential Due to Construction Work on the 225 kV Segou - Bamako High Voltage BI-Ternal Electric Line in Mali in The Context of Climate Change

The aim of this study is to assess the carbon emissions resulting from the construction of the power line linking Bamako to Ségou. It focuses on direct emissions, more specifically those linked to the degradation and desctruction of the vegetation cover in the project right-of-way. To collect the data, surveys were set up on the project right-of-way, through which 3302 trees were inventoried in situ at the three sites. Circumference was measured at 1.30 m from the ground surface. Allometric equations for direct biomass estimation were used as a predictor o f tree diameter. Emission factors were then used to estimate the potential greenhouse gas emissions resulting from tree felling during power line construction. The standard error associated with the carbon fraction in dry biomass was calculated. In the Ségou, Koulikoro and Dioïla project areas, there are a number of plant species that provide local populations with various ecosystem services, including micro-climate regulation through carbon sequestration or absorption of atmospheric CO2. The implementation of the project will undoubtedly result in the felling of these trees. This felling will generate emissions of 22.11 t.eqCO2/ha in Ségou, 16.56 t.eqCO2/ha in Koulikoro and 15.43 t.eqCO2/ha in Dioïla. Across Ségou, Koulikoro and Dioïla, the trees in the project right-of-way represent a reservoir of 34.04 t/ha of above-ground woody biomass. This biomass represents a carbon stock of around 16.58 t.C/ha. This carbon stock will be transformed into a carbon source with emissions of 60.78 t.eqCO2/ha if the trees in the power line right-of-way are systematically felled. Mitigation measures are therefore urgently needed, with compensatory reforestation areas planted with species with high carbon sequestration potential.

Research on Hybrid Heating System in Cold Oilfield Regions

Efficient and clean treatment of wastewater and energy recovery and utilization are important links to realize low-carbon development of oilfields. Therefore, this paper innovatively proposes a multi-energy complementary co-production heating system which fully and efficiently utilizes solar energy resources, oilfield waste heat resources, and biomass resources. At the same time, a typical dormitory building in the oil region was selected as the research object, the system equipment selection was calculated according to the relevant design specifications. On this basis, the simulation system model is established, and the evaluation index and operation control strategy suitable for the system are proposed. The energy utilization rate of the system and the economic, energy-saving, and environmental benefits of the system are simulated. The results show that, under the simulated conditions of two typical days and a heating season, the main heat load of the system is borne by the sewage source heat pump, the energy efficiency is relatively low in the cold period, and the energy-saving characteristics are not obvious. With the increase in heating temperature and anaerobic reactor volume, the energy consumption of the system also increases, and the energy efficiency ratio of each subsystem and the comprehensive energy efficiency ratio of the system gradually decrease. In addition, although the initial investment in cogeneration heating systems is high, the operating costs and environmental benefits are huge. Under the condition of maintaining 35 °C, the anaerobic reactor in the system can reduce carbon emissions by 12.15 t per year, reduce sulfur dioxide emissions by 98.4 kg, reduce dust emissions by 49.2 kg, and treat up to 2700 t of sewage per year, which has broad application prospects.

Generation of hydrogen fuel on board vehicles with internal combustion engines

This article discusses advances in the design of hydrogen fuel engines; the main characteristics of the hybrid engine are studied; prospects for further research are outlined; development and improvement of engine designs, research of processes in engines running on natural gas and hydrogen. Transport is one of the key elements of modern civilization. Its condition and development prospects largely depend on the ability to supply transport power plants with fuel. The depletion of liquid hydrocarbon fuel reserves and problems of environmental pollution may present humanity with a choice - either to reduce transport transportation or to find new ways to supply energy to transport. OBJECTIVE: To review the electrochemical technologies used for the production of hydrogen at gas stations and the operation of hybrid electric vehicle engines using fuel cell batteries. Conduct a comparative analysis of the production and use of energy by electrochemical and traditional methods in vehicles. METHODS are based on analysis of literature data and mathematical calculations. For a passenger electric vehicle, the amount of electricity that can be obtained in a fuel cell by processing 1 kg of hydrogen was calculated. It has been shown that the specific fuel consumption for a hydrogen electric vehicle averages 1 kg of hydrogen per 100 km. Hydrogen has the potential to be the sustainable fuel of the future, reducing global dependence on fossil fuel resources and reducing carbon emissions from the transportation industry.

Unlocking underground hydrogen storage potential: Geochemical characterization of North Dakota's geological formation

Underground hydrogen storage offers a promising solution for sustainable energy, with geologic formations such as salt caverns, aquifers, and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs identified as suitable options for safely storing hydrogen. Some studies have been carried out to investigate hydrogen-rock-fluid interactions. However, none have simultaneously combined experimental analysis and geochemical modeling of the equilibrium and kinetic reactions using a well-characterized North Dakota carbonate formation as a case study to investigate its geochemical characterization and implications. This research explores the mineralogical and fluid composition of specific depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs in North Dakota while investigating the intricate geochemical interplays between hydrogen gas, fluid, and rock formations. This study focused on the Red River Formation, a primary hydrocarbon-producing entity in North Dakota, to unveil its potential for underground hydrogen storage (UHS). This formation's stratigraphic complexity and extensive hydrocarbon yield underscores its significance. We conducted experiments combining analytical tests and geochemical modeling using core samples from the Red River Formation. X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques were employed to decipher mineralogical and elemental constituents. This study covers areas such as the Bicentennial, Coyote Creek, Horse Creek, and Medicine Poll Hills Fields and identified common minerals such as calcite, dolomite, anhydrite, and quartz, along with essential elements such as oxygen, magnesium, aluminum, and silicon. Geochemical simulations were also performed to evaluate the equilibrium and kinetic reactions expected during hydrogen gas injection into this formation. Our findings revealed stable mineral phases, the absence of detrimental environmental impacts, promising prospects for hydrogen storage in the studied carbonate reservoirs without geochemical alterations and promising a sustainable pathway toward net-zero carbon emissions.

Prioritizing Criteria for Establishing a Green Shipping Corridor Between the Ports of Sines and Luanda Using Fuzzy AHP

As port authorities and cargo operators seek strategies to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring operational efficiency, some are turning to the concept of green corridors. These solutions aim to establish formalized partnerships among ports, carriers, shippers, and countries. During the process, the stakeholders must consider four priority areas (alternative fuels, bunkering infrastructure, vessel decarbonization pathways, and cargo demand dynamics) from seven angles (environmental, economic, infrastructure, regulatory, operational, technological, and social). This study explores the prioritization of these criteria for establishing a green maritime corridor between two major ports in Portugal and Angola, which would be a significant step toward promoting sustainable global trade. Utilizing the fuzzy AHP, this research analyzes all these factors and their associated sub-criteria derived from a comprehensive literature review and consultations with stakeholders from the Ports of Sines and Luanda. The findings show the dominance of environmental compatibility and economic viability, while social acceptance shows the lowest score. This framework guides the decision-making process for developing a sustainable shipping corridor. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers which can guide them in fostering resilient maritime transport routes, accelerating the adoption of decarbonization strategies and playing a critical role in achieving the IMO’s zero-emission targets by 2050.

Low-Carbon Optimization Scheduling of Integrated Energy Systems Based on Bilateral Demand Response and Two-Level Stackelberg Game

In the context of low-carbon energy transformation, fully utilizing the integrated demand response (IDR) resources on the load side can improve the operational flexibility and economy of the integrated energy system (IES). However, establishing a reasonable trading mechanism to enhance users’ participation in IDR has become a key issue that IES urgently needs to solve. To this end, this paper first establishes an IES model that includes electricity, heat, and gas. To reduce carbon emissions, a ladder-type carbon trading mechanism is introduced while adding low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture devices and power-to-gas conversion. Secondly, a bilateral IDR mechanism centered on the load aggregator (LA) is proposed, and a multi-agent operation model including IES, LA, and users is established. The IDR subsidy price is dynamically determined through a two-level Stackelberg game model involving IES, LA, and users. Then, through KKT conditions and the Big M method, the two-level game model is turned into an IES-LA game model, which is solved using a combination of the White Shark Optimization method and the Gurobi solver. The final simulation results show that the scheduling model can fully reflect the time value of IDR resources, and the IES cost is decreased by USD 152.22, while LA and user benefits are increased by USD 54.61 and USD 31.85. Meanwhile, the ladder-type carbon trading mechanism and low-carbon technology have effectively achieved low-carbon operation of the system.

Research on carbon emission measurement techniques for accounting and grid auxiliary services

Abstract Comprehensive and accurate carbon measurement in industrial parks is an important prerequisite for grasping the current status of carbon emissions in industrial parks and exploring their carbon reduction potential. In industrial parks, a large amount of indirect or direct carbon emissions will be generated in common processes such as power use, fuel consumption, and industrial processes, and how to realize the real-time and accurate measurement of indirect and direct carbon emissions in industrial parks will become the key foundation for promoting carbon reduction and emission reduction in industrial parks. This paper focuses on the impact of auxiliary services provided by distributed power generation on carbon emissions and the integration of multi-energy carbon emission measurement technology to carry out carbon emission accurate measurement technology research, puts forward an accurate measurement method of indirect electricity carbon emission in industrial parks considering auxiliary services, and forms a carbon emission measurement technology solution in line with the new energy power generation and multiple energy use in industrial parks to provide data support for the low-carbon transformation of electric power in the parks. The study will provide data support for the low-carbon transformation of electric power and energy in the industrial park.

Multi-Scenario land cover changes and carbon emissions prediction for peak carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, China

Research on future land cover changes and carbon emissions is essential for effective land resource management and developing feasible carbon mitigation strategies. This study focused on the Yellow River Basin and employed the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to project future land cover and carbon emissions. Additionally, bivariate spatial autocorrelation was utilized to analyze the relationship between them. Key findings are as follows: 1) Historically, the Yellow River Basin has experienced an expansion in construction land, forests, grasslands, and water, while cropland and unused land have diminished. Notably, construction land displayed the most significant changes, whereas grasslands showed minimal modification. Looking ahead, both the ecological protection and inertial development scenarios exhibit consistent trends with historical patterns across the land type categories. In contrast, the economic priority development scenario forecasts an increase in construction land, cropland, and grasslands, indicating a distinct shift compared to the other scenarios. However, the ecological protection scenario proves to be more sustainable. 2) In the absence of intervention, the simulated carbon emissions from construction land throughout the basin display a linear increase across various scenarios, with provincial-level variations showing an increase from southwest to northeast. However, Henan and Sichuan are expected to experience slower reductions in carbon emissions, compared to other projections. There is a notable positive correlation between carbon emissions and the comprehensive index, indicating that regions with high emissions typically experience substantial land and economic development. 3) Energy consumption projections for 2030 and 2060 indicate that to align with China’s carbon goals, it is essential to reduce energy consumption and adjust the fossil to non-fossil fuel ratio to reduce carbon emissions. Substituting coal with clean energy and enhancing energy efficiency will be more effective for achieving low-carbon emission targets. In summary, this study provides significant guidance for China’s ecological conservation, low-carbon emission strategies, and global carbon emission control efforts.

Patterns and Drivers of CO2 and CH4 Fluxes in an Urbanized River Network and Their Response to Restoration

AbstractCarbon evasion from urban river networks becomes increasingly significant as urbanization accelerates. However, there remains a limited understanding of the overall carbon emission impact integrating CO2 and CH4 dynamics, particularly in response to ecological restoration efforts. In this study, we investigated patterns of fluvial CO2 and CH4 diffusive fluxes across an urban river network in Wuxi, China. Our results reveal that water quality variables, especially dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus content, predominantly influence the variability of carbon emissions. These factors exhibit a stronger correlation with CO2 emissions compared to CH4, indicating a net increase in carbon emissions as water quality deteriorates. Seasonally, higher water temperatures, phosphate levels, and lower DO concentrations lead to increased carbon emissions during summer months. Spatially, areas with lower carbon emissions (averaged 86 mmol m−2 d−1 CO2 and 0.13 mmol m−2 d−1 CH4) are primarily situated near the lake and in river sections where significant water quality improvements have been achieved through ecological restoration efforts. Cluster analysis shows that over 60% of high‐carbon emission (averaged 162 mmol m−2 d−1 CO2 and 1.21 mmol m−2 d−1 CH4) sites in the study area have undergone ecological restoration, suggesting potential for further carbon emission reduction through enhanced restoration practices. Our findings underscore the importance of implementing carbon reduction strategies such as nutrient removal and aeration for oxygenation within water ecological restoration initiatives. Effective matching of restoration strategies holds further potential for mitigating carbon emissions from urban river networks.