Carbon Emission Transfer Research Articles

Innovation and application of inter-provincial carbon emission transfer accounting model in China’s domestic production network

The New Development Paradigm will result in the significant development of domestic production networks and the accelerated growth of carbon transfers among provinces in China. However, the existing value chain or the trade of intermediate goods decomposition method cannot completely account for the carbon content of intermediate goods. So the paper developed a accounting model for inter-regional intermediate goods trade based on input-output model. The most significant advantage of this accounting model is that by further decomposing final output into three components—final consumption within the region, final consumption flowing to other regions, and final output flowing to other regions as intermediate goods that are not returned to the region—it achieves a more comprehensive decomposition of the value chain in comparison to the established models. This approach allows for the tracking of longer value chains and the accounting for intermediate goods inflows and outflows simultaneously. Furthermore, the accounting of trade in intermediate goods can be conducted for any number of countries, regions, and sectors within the input-output system, thereby providing a foundation for the comprehensive accounting of inter-regional carbon transfers within production networks. With the input-output tables and carbon emission inventories from the CEADs (the China Carbon Emissions Accounting Database), the paper has calculated the changes of the carbon transfer among provinces in the China’s domestic production network from 2012 to 2017 and find that the inter-provincial intermediate goods trade and carbon transfer among provinces is increasing significantly. Each province has a strong incentive to overuse the carbon embodied in the intermediate goods from others, but lacks the motivation to reduce their own carbon emission. In the inter-provincial transfer of the carbon content of intermediate goods in China’s domestic production network, the difference between the average value of the ratio of the carbon content of intermediate goods from other provinces used by each province and that supplied for use by other provinces to the ratio of the carbon content of intermediate goods produced by itself increased by 13.6% between 2012 and 2017. Only a few provinces are evolving towards a win-win between economic and environmental benefits, while most are still facing the evolutionary dilemma in choosing between economic and environmental benefits. In the future, we should comprehensively explore the cooperative governance of carbon emission reduction in the domestic production network, including establishing a national standard for calculating the carbon transfer in domestic production network, improving the carbon emission responsibility sharing mechanism and carbon emission reduction compensation systems.

Carbon emissions reduction path of logistics industry in Hebei, China: based on internal factors

To explore the optimal carbon emissions reduction path for the logistics industry in Hebei Province, China, this paper considers internal factors such as logistics agglomeration, transportation structure, and technology innovation as regulatory measures. The system dynamics method is employed to simulate the effects of carbon emissions reduction for each factor. Then, based on examining the interactive relationships among these internal factors, the paper proposes the optimal carbon emissions reduction path for Hebei Province’s logistics industry under different sequences of implementing the three measures. The results indicate that logistics agglomeration, transportation structure, and technological innovation can contribute to varying degrees of carbon emissions reduction in logistics. By 2030, it is projected that logistics agglomeration will result in a reduction of 21,799 million tons of carbon emissions while transportation structure and technology innovation will lead to reductions of 23,459 million tons and 20,778 million tons respectively compared to the BAU scenario. Furthermore, intricate interactions exist among these three internal measures. The optimal path for reducing carbon emissions is TSI-AGD-LTI. Specifically, to optimize the transportation structure first, relieve the pressure of logistics carbon emissions aggravated by logistics agglomeration, promote the cross-regional transfer of logistics carbon emissions, and then improve the level of technology innovation to strengthen further the logistics carbon emissions reduction effect of transportation structure adjustment.

Cross-scale characteristics and emission reduction pathways of trade-embodied carbon flows in the global supply Chains

In the context of the 1.5 °C warming target, there is a growing awareness of the increasingly frequent carbon flows between subregions. However, understanding the characteristics and pathways of cross-scale carbon flows between subregions and regions remains elusive and impedes achieving emission reduction targets. This study employs a nested multi-regional input–output model and the structural path analysis method, establishing the characteristics of the carbon emission transfer network within global supply chains and discerning the crucial structural pathways and nodes for carbon emissions. The study found that (1) in 36 major countries, the embodied carbon flows are predominantly influenced by the developed countries around China in Asia and the Pacific. (2) In 30 subregions, coastal subregions with large-scale foreign trade and energy-intensive subregions in China's central and western parts contribute significantly to the larger embodied carbon outflow due to exports. (3) “Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (S09) → construction (S19)” and “manufacture and processing of metals (S10) → construction (S19)” are the two key pathways of paramount significance of embodied carbon emissions. (4) “R25 South Korea” has the highest number of key pathways and the greatest embodied carbon emissions from critical paths, followed by “R27 India” and “R22 United States.” These findings offer valuable insights for the development of regional emission reduction policies.

A study on the spatial correlation network structure and its influencing factors of coupling coordination between FDI flow network and carbon transfer network in the belt and road initiative countries

Clarifying the spatial correlation characteristics and influencing factors of coupling coordination between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow networks and carbon transfer networks in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is of utmost importance for the formulation of regional carbon governance strategies and the establishment of a high-quality Green Silk Road. This study used a comprehensive approach combining social network analysis and coupling coordination model to measure the coupling coordination degree of FDI flow networks and carbon transfer networks of 67 Belt and Road countries from 2010 to 2016. In addition, a modified gravity model is used to characterize the spatial correlation network structure of coupling coordination between the two networks, and the QAP regression analysis method is applied to investigate the factors influencing the spatial association network. The results are as follows: 1) The spatial correlation network of coupling coordination between the two networks has good accessibility and relatively high overall network stability. 2) Countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates occupy central positions in the network, while Bahrain and Jordan are positioned on the periphery of the network. 3) The spatial correlation network can be divided into three sectors: net outflow, net inflow, and bidirectional overflow sectors. 4) Spatial adjacency, bilateral investment treaties, economic development, and institutional quality have significant positive effects on the spatial association network, while the industrial structure and the level of infrastructure development have a significant negative impact. This study proposes an indicator system for the coupling coordination between FDI flow networks and carbon transfer networks. The aim is to investigate the coupling coordination relationship between FDI flow networks and carbon emission transfer networks in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, providing important guidance for the formulation of regional cooperative carbon emission reduction strategies in other regions.

A complex network-based transmission mechanism and target control method for reducing carbon emission

To achieve carbon neutrality for China, the transmission mechanism, path, diffusion effect,and allocation of Emission Reduction Targets (ERT) among industries must be investigated. Setting short-term ERT will create a reverse pressure mechanism for the industry's carbon reduction, ensuring the achievement of carbon emission control target. However, few studies have explored how to influence the entire system by controlling key industries from the perspective of network control. Therefore, this study investigates Inter-industry Carbon Emission Transfer (ICET) in China from 1997 to 2017,and found that ICET can achieve fair distribution of ERT. Inspired by the controllability theory of complex networks to integrate the driving factors, the transmission paths, diffusion effects, and allocation of ERT into a unified analytical framework. Then, breaking the traditional top-down hierarchical decomposition mechanism and transforming it into a bottom-up target forcing mechanism, a decomposition algorithm for the total control target was proposed.The results reveal that ICET accounts for the majority of carbon emission. The characteristics of network structure have a significant impact on the ICET.Different industries have varying control capabilities. Compared with industry-wide control, target control on the Minimum Control Industry Set (MCMCS) has a slightly worse emission reduction effect, but the economic loss is smaller, making it an effective policy choice.

Historical assessment and future scenario modelling: How do inter-provincial migrants affect the process of carbon peaking in residential buildings?

The inter-regional carbon emission transfer caused by inter-provincial migrants (IPMs) is an important factor influencing China's provincial residential building carbon emissions (RBCEs). Based on census data and the per capita residential building carbon emissions (PCRBCEs), this study assesses the number of IPMs in China year by year from 2011 to 2020, quantifies the amount of RBCE transfers generated in the process, and further simulates the impacts of different IPM sizes in the future on the timing and pathways of carbon peaking in provincial residential buildings. The results of this study show that the total number of IPMs in China has been increasing year by year since 2015, with the number of new IPMs ranging from 20 to 25 million per year. During the decade from 2011 to 2020, IPMs in China cumulatively led to an increase in RBCEs of 98 MtCO2. For provinces with large net inflows or outflows of population, such as Beijing, Henan, and Guizhou, the different sizes of future IPMs will have a significant impact on the time of their RBCE peak. Overall, this study fills in data gaps and provides a valuable reference for formulating better carbon peaking pathways at the provincial level.

Carbon inequality under domestic value chain fragmentation

The division of production leads to the separation of production and consumption, resulting in carbon emissions transfer with trade among regions. Thus, quantifying carbon inequality caused by domestic trade is important for allocating emission-reduction tasks and improving emission-reduction efficiency. Considering domestic value chain (DVC) fragmentation in China, we use multiregional input–output tables to divide products into within-province trade products, traditional trade intermediate/final products, and DVC–related trade products. Then, we examine carbon intensity inequality (CII) under DVC fragmentation and, using Theil index to analyze the contributions of between-province economic differences, within-province trade structures, and related influencing factors to CII. Previous studies have mostly focused on issues related to global value chain fragmentation. We take the lead in exploring CII caused by DVC fragmentation, and for the first time decompose the composition of CII from the perspective of DVC fragmentation. In addition, the national CII is attempted to analyze its contribution at the provincial level for the first time, which is a new improvement and exploration of previous regional research perspectives. The empirical results show that China's CII is on an upward trend, with large changes between 2002 and 2007, and then stabilized between 2007 and 2010 due to the financial crisis, before entering a phase of rapid change after 2012. In terms of regional contribution, between-province inequality is the core to PCII, while within-province inequality is the key to CCII. In terms of province, the changes in between-province inequality are relatively stable at early period. In the middle and late stages, the temporal and spatial changes of PCII and CCII between provinces are obvious with “geographic stickiness” weakening. Specifically, the carbon transfer in the early study period is mostly concentrated in traditional trade products, and the share of carbon transfer in DVC-related trade products later rises significantly from 20.05% in 2002 to 36.32% in 2017, and the value-added transfer rises from 17.09% in 2002 to 27.65% in 2017. In terms of influencing factors, energy intensity remains an important component to CII. In addition, the uncertainties of the data and methodology used in this study are discussed and possible future research directions for expansion are elaborated. Finally, specific policy recommendations for mitigating carbon inequality are presented to inform the development of efficient carbon reduction strategies.

Carbon‐trade nexus: The embodied carbon emission transfer network of China's sustainable development demonstration belt

AbstractUncovering energy‐related carbon emission transfer networks and assessing its structure and efficiency can help reshape the regional carbon‐trade nexus. Combining the social network analysis and interregional input–output model, our study estimates the carbon trade patterns from various perspectives and explores the topological characteristics of energy‐related carbon emission transfer networks within China's green development demonstration belt. Furthermore, carbon pressure index is used to identify key area for the regional carbon reduction. Results indicate that the three reaches are in descending order of embodied carbon emissions whether from the production or consumption perspectives when most of provinces are in the status of “carbon overload.” Furthermore, the total embodied carbon transfers with the large amounts occur at the provinces that are adjacent to each other. In terms of degree centrality, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang dominate the carbon emission transfer network within the region, whereas Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Zhejiang serve as the main intermediaries and bridges. As a result, the findings should provide policymakers with new insights into how to formulate more targeted strategies for carbon management in different provinces and sectors.

Complex network analysis of embodied carbon emission transfer in China’s construction industry

Complex network analysis of embodied carbon emission transfer in China’s construction industry

Network Effects in Global Carbon Transfer: New Evidence from a Carbon-Connectedness Network Centered on China

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that global carbon emission transfer has evolved into a mutually related system, where a realistic and complex network is formed. To profile the structures and features in the global carbon emission transfer network, a carbon-connectedness network model is adapted and combined with the multiregional input–output analysis framework, on the basis of massive and multi-layer global carbon flow data. This study formulates the topological features, spatio-temporal features, dynamic features and core–periphery features from a brand-new perspective on China. Meanwhile, this study identifies the network effects in the global carbon transfer network, including spillover, spillin and spillback effects. In general, an increase in China’s carbon emission transfer would lead to significant spillover effects on most economies worldwide, especially on developing economies and those with weaker tertiary industry or situated at the upstream of the global value chain. Simultaneously, China itself would also face substantial spillback effects. Spillovers and spillbacks underscore a broader negative impact that exceeds its initial magnitude. Focused on the connectedness network centered on China, this study is complementary to traditional insights, helping to comprehend the connections and relationships of carbon emissions among economies. This understanding is of substantive significance for the formulation of multi-national mitigation strategies and fostering global climate governance cooperation.

Research on the allocation scheme of carbon emission allowances for China's provincial power grids

The power industry is the industry with the highest carbon emissions in China, and the rational allocation of carbon quotas for the power industry is the key to the rational allocation of carbon quotas in China, while the transfer of carbon emissions generated by inter-provincial power trading makes it difficult to calculate the carbon emission quotas for power. The article calculates the comprehensive power carbon quota for each province based on the principles of equity(PEQ) and the principles of efficiency(PEF). The results of the study prove the following points. (1) There are significant differences in the carbon emission factors calculated for electricity generation and consumption in each province. (2) The western provinces with abundant electricity resources deliver electricity to the eastern and southern provinces to ensure their economic development, so the western provinces with higher inflows of electricity carbon emissions bear the carbon emission pressure of the eastern and southern provinces. (3) The provincial electricity carbon quota calculated by the principle of comprehensiveness(PC) takes into account social equity and economic efficiency, and the calculation results are more reasonable. This study achieves balanced regional development by reasonably allocating provincial electricity carbon quotas.

Assessing the carbon emission reduction effect of flexibility option for integrating variable renewable energy

Integrating a high-penetration level of variable renewable energy into power systems requires the pro-rata deployment of flexibility technology in the recent trends of low-carbon transition. This study proposes a multi-regional power system optimization model to assess the carbon emission reduction effect of different flexibility options in the Chinese power sector, including total carbon emissions, peaking timetables and values, carbon emission transfer between regional power systems, and carbon emission source changes between technologies. The results reveal that the combinations of dispatchable generation, inter-regional transmission, energy storage, and demand-side response can significantly reduce carbon emissions from power systems, but will lead to higher expenditure. Carbon emissions would peak 1–6 years in advance under the integrated flexibility option consisting of all flexibility technologies, and the corresponding peaking value would decrease by 0.26–0.48 billion tonnes compared to other configuration scenarios. However, this does not apply to all the regions. The coupling relationship between the flexibility option and carbon emission reduction in regional power systems changes with the disparities in power demand, system structure, and renewable energy consumption targets.

Evaluation of key node groups of embodied carbon emission transfer network in China based on complex network control theory

China has committed to enhancing its national efforts to peak CO2 emissions by 2030. Rather than applying broad emission reduction measures nationwide, a more efficient strategy involves focusing on select provinces and sectors as pioneers in emission reduction. This targeted approach is expected to drive broader, nationwide progress towards the carbon emission reduction goal, thereby improving the effectiveness of emission reduction policies. This study integrates complex network control theory with input–output modeling to develop a detailed analysis of the embodied carbon emission (EC) transfer network at the province-sector level in China for the year 2017. By examining the network’s characteristics and identifying key nodes for control, the study arrives at several notable findings: (1) EC transfers predominantly flow from central and northern provinces to the economically vibrant southeast provinces, and from energy-intensive sectors towards services, manufacturing, and others. (2) The network’s structure follows a scale-free distribution, indicating that a limited number of provincial sectors are central to the network, managing a majority of EC transfers and thus playing a crucial role. (3) Utilizing complex network control theory, an algorithm was developed to identify optimal control nodes, aiming to minimize the costs associated with emission reduction. This approach identified 287 provincial sectors, about one-third of the total, while keeping abatement costs below one-fourth of potential expenses. (4) The identified crucial control nodes consist of approximately 38% source nodes and 20% isolated nodes. Sectors downstream of these source nodes, such as sec04, sec05, and sec22, show significant node strength and betweenness centrality, enhancing the spread of emission reduction impacts. (5) When compared to other node selection strategies, the algorithm not only achieves complete network control but also minimizes abatement costs effectively. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers on the dynamics of interregional trade and EC management. It supports the formulation of a strategic, long-term plan for collaborative emission reduction across provinces and sectors, aligning with China’s environmental commitments.

Exploring global embodied carbon emissions transfer network—An analysis based on national responsibility

This paper explores the global embodied carbon emissions transfer network. To clarify the carbon emissions reduction responsibilities of each country globally, a complex interdependent network structure based on the 2016 World Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) table and the transfer of production factors between industries is constructed. Using input-output and social network analyses, the structural features of the global carbon emissions flow network is uncovered, and then carbon inequality among countries from a multi-regional perspective is revealed. The research findings show that the scale of global embodied carbon transfer expands continuously. The direction of transfer exhibits asymmetry, regionalism, and complexity. Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Iran, Ethiopia, and Iran are the main carbon-exporting countries, while the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, Spain are the main carbon-importing countries. Furthermore, the block model analysis reveals that the carbon transfer and transmission effects between global regions tend to be centralized clusters, from “demand-driven” to “internalized supply-demand coexistence”. There is significant uneven exchange between wealth benefits and environmental burdens among blocks.

Green technology innovation, trade deficit and carbon emission transfer in agriculture under the new “dual circulation” development pattern of China

Under the new development pattern of domestic and international “dual circulation” in China, studying the relationship among green technology innovation, agricultural trade deficit (ATD) and carbon emission transfer embodied in agricultural trade (ATCT) becomes crucial for achieving coordinated and unified high-quality economic development and efficient environmental protection. Based on this, the paper uses environmental input–output model, “two-stage” decoupling and recoupling model, panel vector auto-regressive model, spatial econometric model and “rolling” Grey-BP neural network prediction model to explore present status of ATD, ATCT and their relationship, driving role of green technology innovation, as well as whether that relationship will be improving in the future. The results reveal the following: (1) China's ATD and ATCT show an increasing trend year by year, and their inter-provincial differences are gradually significant over time. The overall relationship between ATD and ATCT does not display ideally, which makes it necessary to quickly transform that relationship into reasonable and ideal state. (2) Green technology innovation has significant positive “U-shaped” and inverted “U-shaped” local effects on ATD and ATCT respectively, with a reasonable range of ATD reduction while ATCT increase valuing from 0 to 0.290, and has significant positive “U-shaped” spatial spillover effect on both without any reasonable range. The short-term effect of green technology innovation on coordinated promotion between ATD and ATCT is superior to the long-term one. (3) Green technology innovation has a significant regional heterogeneity. Regional differences must be taken into consideration seriously, and the measures adapted to local conditions are crucial. The role of fundamental and progressive green technology innovation has heterogeneity, which means that targeted development and utilization of green technology products are important. (4) Regardless of the time horizon, the relationship between ATD and ATCT will improve, which can provide a key step for coordinated development of economy and environment in agricultural trade. Therefore, in order for China to implement and promote further opening-up, reduce agricultural trade dependence, ensure food security and important agricultural product supply, as well as achieve the unity of high-quality economic development and ecological efficient protection, it is necessary to reasonably reverse trade deficit and increase carbon emission transfer in agriculture.

Tele-connections, driving forces and scenario simulation of agricultural land, water use and carbon emissions in China's trade

Exploring the virtual resources flow along supply chains and the coupling relationship among different resources is important for promoting sustainable agricultural development. In this study, by combing environmentally-extended multi-regional input-output (EEMRIO) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) methods, we analyzed the transfer of agricultural virtual water, land and carbon emissions in China's regional trade and identified the hidden driving forces. We further explored agricultural water-land-carbon nexus evolution characteristics in different development scenarios. The results showed that trade-embodied agricultural land, water use and carbon emissions increase by 8.5 %, 15.4 % and 27.3 % from 2007 to 2017 respectively. The flow trend is mainly from water-starved northern China to southern and southeastern China. Virtual water flows reduce 41.5 % and embodied carbon emissions reduce 31.9 % after the improvement of water use efficiency and reduction of carbon intensity in 2030 under the W2LC2 scenario, where faces the least water-land-carbon pressure. The results provide important information for alleviating the inequality of regional resource and environmental pressure in China.

Evolution of China's Role in the Structure of Global Carbon Emission Transfers: An Empirical Analysis Based on Network Governance

AbstractThis paper reconsiders the roles of China and some developed countries in the network of carbon emission transfers via international trade in value added from a new perspective of network governance. Network search intensity (NSI) and the extended gravity model are used with cross‐country panel data to analyze the mechanism of China's engagement in network governance of carbon emission transfers. The results show that from 2000 to 2009, China was a net exporter of carbon emissions, even though it shifted from the semi‐periphery to the core in the network of carbon emissions embodied in imports. Meanwhile, NSI had a significant positive impact on carbon emissions embodied in exports. Given China's important role in the global production network and division of labor, NSI may also affect industrial structure and the quality of the ecological environment to a large extent. This study analyses the network governance mechanism of China's participation in global carbon transfers. The results suggest that the technical complexity of export products and product heterogeneity do not change the positive impact of NSI on carbon emissions.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneities in the impact of the digital economy on carbon emission transfers in China

This study investigates the spatiotemporal impacts of digital economic development on interprovincial carbon emissions transfer in China. Applying a proposed mixed geographically and temporally weighted spatial interaction panel regression (MGTWIPR) model, the study analyzes the annual carbon emissions data of 31 provincial administrative regions in China from 2015 to 2017. The results show that China's interprovincial carbon emissions transfers have apparent asymmetrical and imbalanced characteristics. The most significant transfers from the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions to north China and its surrounding areas follow a general pattern of carbon emissions transfer from developed to less developed regions. Improving digital economic development in origin regions promotes the exportation of carbon emissions to other areas. Conversely, enhancing digital economic development in destination regions would inhibit the import of carbon emissions to those regions. Additionally, from a spatial perspective, the impact of the origin region's digital economic development on carbon transfer is maximized in western China. Temporally, the influence of the origin region's digital economic development on carbon emissions transfers increases over time. This study integrates research regarding the digital economy and carbon emissions transfer, providing a novel perspective for digital economic studies. It also introduces a new research method for investigating the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of panel data. The results suggest the development of targeted strategies for regions with net carbon emissions exports and imports, emphasizing the role of digital technology in curbing carbon emissions to meet China's dual carbon goals.

The equity of carbon emissions in international trade from the perspective of value added

AbstractInternational trade drives the transboundary transfer of carbon emissions. However, due to the differences in the economic development level and industrial structure of countries, the whole understanding of the inequality exchange between carbon emissions and the value added remains to be illuminated. Here, to uncover the global pattern of this inequality exchange, we construct a multi‐regional input–output model (MRIO) and inequality exchange index (IEI) from 1991 to 2016, to carry out macro path research with the goal of achieving global carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) The carbon emissions per unit of value added through trade have declined in most countries, and the decline rate of developing countries was faster than that of developed ones. (2) In general, the developed countries were in an advantageous position in the value added and carbon emission exchange, while the developing countries were in a disadvantageous position. (3) Six sectors – agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry; electrical and machinery; electricity, gas, and water; petroleum, chemical, and N‐metallic mineral products; transport; and financial intermediation and business activities – accounted for more than half of the carbon emissions of global trade, but with the advancement of energy conservation and emission‐reduction measures, carbon emissions have decreased to varying degrees. (4) From a global perspective, promoting cooperation on carbon reduction technologies from developed countries to developing ones might be a key and effective way to achieve global carbon reduction. The study aims to provide new insights into the formulation of global carbon neutrality and carbon emission responsibility‐sharing policies.

Study on regional carbon quota allocation at provincial level in China from the perspective of carbon peak

This paper constructs a carbon quota allocation index that takes into account equity, efficiency and ecological construction, and calculates carbon emissions and energy consumption data in important periods based on the expected carbon emission targets and economic and social development indicators of the Chinese government. Based on the calculated carbon emissions, the zero-sum game data Envelopment model (ZSG-DEA) is used to discuss the initial allocation of regional quotas and the optimal carbon quota scheme. The results show that:(1) there is a large gap between the optimal carbon quota and the initial carbon quota allocation in Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other provinces in 2025, and the implementation of emission reduction measures should be accelerated. (2) By 2030, the final allocation of Beijing, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shanghai, Ningxia, Liaoning and Xinjiang will be positive. The provinces with negative final allocation should carry out the work of carbon peak as soon as possible to avoid increasing the pressure of emission reduction in the future. (3) The central region faces greater pressure of emission reduction, while the western region can accept the transfer of carbon emissions from other regions over time. The research conclusions have important policy implications for establishing a fair and effective carbon quota allocation mechanism, achieving the national total carbon emission control target, stimulating the vitality of the unified carbon market, and promoting regional coordinated emission reduction.