A complex network-based transmission mechanism and target control method for reducing carbon emission

Abstract

To achieve carbon neutrality for China, the transmission mechanism, path, diffusion effect,and allocation of Emission Reduction Targets (ERT) among industries must be investigated. Setting short-term ERT will create a reverse pressure mechanism for the industry's carbon reduction, ensuring the achievement of carbon emission control target. However, few studies have explored how to influence the entire system by controlling key industries from the perspective of network control. Therefore, this study investigates Inter-industry Carbon Emission Transfer (ICET) in China from 1997 to 2017,and found that ICET can achieve fair distribution of ERT. Inspired by the controllability theory of complex networks to integrate the driving factors, the transmission paths, diffusion effects, and allocation of ERT into a unified analytical framework. Then, breaking the traditional top-down hierarchical decomposition mechanism and transforming it into a bottom-up target forcing mechanism, a decomposition algorithm for the total control target was proposed.The results reveal that ICET accounts for the majority of carbon emission. The characteristics of network structure have a significant impact on the ICET.Different industries have varying control capabilities. Compared with industry-wide control, target control on the Minimum Control Industry Set (MCMCS) has a slightly worse emission reduction effect, but the economic loss is smaller, making it an effective policy choice.