Carbon-climate Feedbacks Research Articles

The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) – Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) that incorporate carbon–climate feedbacks represent the present state of the art in climate modelling. Here, we describe the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)-ESM1, which comprises atmosphere (UM7.3), land (CABLE), ocean (MOM4p1), and sea-ice (CICE4.1) components with OASIS-MCT coupling, to which ocean and land carbon modules have been added. The land carbon model (as part of CABLE) can optionally include both nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the land carbon uptake. The ocean carbon model (WOMBAT, added to MOM) simulates the evolution of phosphate, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity and iron with one class of phytoplankton and zooplankton. We perform multi-centennial pre-industrial simulations with a fixed atmospheric CO2 concentration and different land carbon model configurations (prescribed or prognostic leaf area index). We evaluate the equilibration of the carbon cycle and present the spatial and temporal variability in key carbon exchanges. Simulating leaf area index results in a slight warming of the atmosphere relative to the prescribed leaf area index case. Seasonal and interannual variations in land carbon exchange are sensitive to whether leaf area index is simulated, with interannual variations driven by variability in precipitation and temperature. We find that the response of the ocean carbon cycle shows reasonable agreement with observations. While our model overestimates surface phosphate values, the global primary productivity agrees well with observations. Our analysis highlights some deficiencies inherent in the carbon models and where the carbon simulation is negatively impacted by known biases in the underlying physical model and consequent limits on the applicability of this model version. We conclude the study with a brief discussion of key developments required to further improve the realism of our model simulation.

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks

Abstract. The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land–atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN–JULES and IMOGEN–ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric – the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years – that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Enhanced decomposition of stable soil organic carbon and microbial catabolic potentials by long-term field warming.

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition under warming is critical to predict carbon-climate feedbacks. According to the substrate regulating principle, SOC decomposition would decrease as labile SOC declines under field warming, but observations of SOC decomposition under warming do not always support this prediction. This discrepancy could result from varying changes in SOC components and soil microbial communities under warming. This study aimed to determine the decomposition of SOC components with different turnover times after subjected to long-term field warming and/or root exclusion to limit C input, and to test whether SOC decomposition is driven by substrate lability under warming. Taking advantage of a 12-year field warming experiment in a prairie, we assessed the decomposition of SOC components by incubating soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion for 3years. We assayed SOC decomposition from these incubations by combining inverse modeling and microbial functional genes during decomposition with a metagenomic technique (GeoChip). The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO2 respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C-degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all treatments, suggesting shifts of microbial functional groups as substrate composition was changing. Compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. These are likely responsible for accelerated decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates. Overall, the shifted microbial community induced by long-term warming accelerates the decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates and thus amplify the positive feedback to climate change.

Widespread production of nonmicrobial greenhouse gases in soils.

Carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), and nitrous oxide (N2 O) are the three most important greenhouse gases (GHGs), and all show large uncertainties in their atmospheric budgets. Soils of natural and managed ecosystems play an extremely important role in modulating their atmospheric abundance. Mechanisms underlying the exchange of these GHGs at the soil-atmosphere interface are often assumed to be exclusively microbe-mediated (M-GHGs). We argue that it is a widespread phenomenon for soil systems to produce GHGs through nonmicrobial pathways (NM-GHGs) based on a review of the available evidence accumulated over the past half century. We find that five categories of mechanistic process, including photodegradation, thermal degradation, reactive oxidative species (ROS) oxidation, extracellular oxidative metabolism (EXOMET), and inorganic chemical reactions, can be identified as accounting for their production. These pathways are intricately coupled among themselves and with M-GHGs production and are subject to strong influences from regional and global change agents including, among others, climate warming, solar radiation, and alterations of atmospheric components. Preliminary estimates have suggested that NM-GHGs could play key roles in contributing to budgets of GHGs in the arid regions, whereas their global importance would be enhanced with accelerated global environmental changes. Therefore, more research should be undertaken, with a differentiation between NM-GHGs and M-GHGs, to further elucidate the underlying mechanisms, to investigate the impacts of various global change agents, and to quantify their contributions to regional and global GHGs budgets. These efforts will contribute to a more complete understanding of global carbon and nitrogen cycling and a reduction in the uncertainty of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Earth system.

Accounting for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metrics

Abstract. Most emission metrics have previously been inconsistently estimated by including the climate–carbon feedback for the reference gas (i.e. CO2) but not the other species (e.g. CH4). In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, a first attempt was made to consistently account for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metrics. This attempt was based on only one study, and therefore the IPCC concluded that more research was needed. Here, we carry out this research. First, using the simple Earth system model OSCAR v2.2, we establish a new impulse response function for the climate–carbon feedback. Second, we use this impulse response function to provide new estimates for the two most common metrics: global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP). We find that, when the climate–carbon feedback is correctly accounted for, the emission metrics of non-CO2 species increase, but in most cases not as much as initially indicated by IPCC. We also find that, when the feedback is removed for both the reference and studied species, these relative metric values only have modest changes compared to when the feedback is included (absolute metrics change more markedly). Including or excluding the climate–carbon feedback ultimately depends on the user's goal, but consistency should be ensured in either case.

Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.

Extreme rainfall and snowfall alter responses of soil respiration to nitrogen fertilization: a 3-year field experiment.

Extreme precipitation is predicted to be more frequent and intense accompanying global warming and may have profound impacts on soil respiration (Rs) and its components, that is, autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) respiration. However, how natural extreme rainfall or snowfall events affect these fluxes are still lacking, especially under nitrogen (N) fertilization. In this study, extreme rainfall and snowfall events occurred during a 3-year field experiment, allowing us to examine their effects on the response of Rs, Rh, and Ra to N supply. In normal rainfall years of 2011/2012 and 2012/2013, N fertilization significantly stimulated Rs by 23.9% and 10.9%, respectively. This stimulation was mainly due to the increase of Ra because of N-induced increase in plant biomass. In the record wet year of 2013/2014, however, Rs was independent on N supply because of the inhibition effect of the extreme rainfall event. Compared with those in other years, Rh and Ra were reduced by 36.8% and 59.1%, respectively, which were likely related to the anoxic stress on soil microbes and decreased photosynthates supply. Although N supply did not affect annual Rh, the response ratio (RR) of Rh flux to N fertilization decreased firstly during growing season, increased in nongrowing season and peaked during spring thaw in each year. Nongrowing season Rs and Rh contributed 5.5-16.4% to their annual fluxes and were higher in 2012/2013 than other years due to the extreme snowfall inducing higher soil moisture during spring thaw. The RR of nongrowing season Rs and Rh decreased in years with extreme snowfall or rainfall compared to those in normal years. Overall, our results highlight the significant effects of extreme precipitation on responses of Rs and its components to N fertilization, which should be incorporated into models to improve the prediction of carbon-climate feedbacks.

Influence of dynamic vegetation on carbon-nitrogen cycle feedback in the Community Land Model (CLM4)

Land carbon sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentration (βL) and climate warming (γL) is a crucial part of carbon-climate feedbacks that affect the magnitude of future warming. Although these sensitivities can be estimated by earth system models, their dependence on model representation of land carbon dynamics and the inherent model assumptions has rarely been investigated. Using the widely used Community Land Model version 4 as an example, we examine how βL and γL vary with prescribed versus dynamic vegetation covers. Both sensitivities are found to be larger with dynamic compared to prescribed vegetation on decadal timescale in the late twentieth century, with a more robust difference in γL. The latter is a result of dynamic vegetation model deficiencies in representing the competitions between deciduous versus evergreen trees and tree versus grass over the tropics and subtropics. The biased vegetation cover changes the regional characteristics of carbon-nitrogen cycles such that plant productivity responds less strongly to the enhancement of nitrogen mineralization with warming, so more carbon is lost to the atmosphere with rising temperature. The result calls for systematic evaluations of land carbon sensitivities with varying assumptions for land cover representations to help prioritize development effort and constrain uncertainties in carbon-climate feedbacks.

Biogeochemistry: Projections of the soil-carbon deficit.

Changes in the amount of carbon stored in soil might be a crucial feedback to climate change. Experimental field studies show that warming-induced soil carbon losses are greatest where carbon stocks are largest. See Letter p.104 Warming can enhance the exchange of carbon between the soil and the atmosphere, but there is no consensus on the direction or magnitude of warming-induced changes in soil carbon. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks based on data from field experiments across North America, Europe and Asia. The authors find that the effects of warming are contingent upon the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable carbon losses occurring in high-latitude areas. Extrapolation of their findings to the global scale provides support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon–climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Direct evidence for microbial-derived soil organic matter formation and its ecophysiological controls.

Soil organic matter (SOM) and the carbon and nutrients therein drive fundamental submicron- to global-scale biogeochemical processes and influence carbon-climate feedbacks. Consensus is emerging that microbial materials are an important constituent of stable SOM, and new conceptual and quantitative SOM models are rapidly incorporating this view. However, direct evidence demonstrating that microbial residues account for the chemistry, stability and abundance of SOM is still lacking. Further, emerging models emphasize the stabilization of microbial-derived SOM by abiotic mechanisms, while the effects of microbial physiology on microbial residue production remain unclear. Here we provide the first direct evidence that soil microbes produce chemically diverse, stable SOM. We show that SOM accumulation is driven by distinct microbial communities more so than clay mineralogy, where microbial-derived SOM accumulation is greatest in soils with higher fungal abundances and more efficient microbial biomass production.

Increased Atmospheric CO2 Growth Rate during El Niño Driven by Reduced Terrestrial Productivity in the CMIP5 ESMs

Abstract Better understanding of factors that control the global carbon cycle could increase confidence in climate projections. Previous studies found good correlation between the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Niño but decreases during La Niña. In this study, long-term simulations of the Earth system models (ESMs) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive were used to examine the interannual carbon flux variability associated with ENSO. The ESMs simulate the relationship reasonably well with a delay of several months between ENSO and the changes in atmospheric CO2. The increase in atmospheric CO2 associated with El Niño is mostly caused by decreasing net primary production (NPP) in the ESMs. It is suggested that NPP anomalies over South Asia are at their maxima during boreal spring; therefore, the increase in CO2 concentration lags 4–5 months behind the peak phase of El Niño. The decrease in NPP during El Niño may be caused by decreased precipitation and increased temperature over tropical regions. Furthermore, systematic errors may exist in the ESM-simulated temperature responses to ENSO phases over tropical land areas, and these errors may lead to an overestimation of ENSO-related NPP anomalies. In contrast, carbon fluxes from heterotrophic respiration and natural fires are likely underestimated in the ESMs compared with offline model results and observational estimates, respectively. These uncertainties should be considered in long-term projections that include climate–carbon feedbacks.

Contrasting composition of terrigenous organic matter in the dissolved, particulate and sedimentary organic carbon pools on the outer East Siberian Arctic Shelf

Abstract. Fluvial discharge and coastal erosion of the permafrost-dominated East Siberian Arctic delivers large quantities of terrigenous organic carbon (Terr-OC) to marine waters. The composition and fate of the remobilized Terr-OC needs to be better constrained as it impacts the potential for a climate–carbon feedback. In the present study, the bulk isotope (δ13C and Δ14C) and macromolecular (lignin-derived phenols) composition of the cross-shelf exported organic carbon (OC) in different marine pools is evaluated. For this purpose, as part of the SWERUS-C3 expedition (July–September 2014), sediment organic carbon (SOC) as well as water column (from surface and near-bottom seawater) dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) samples were collected along the outer shelves of the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea. The results show that the Lena River and the DOC may have a preferential role in the transport of Terr-OC to the outer shelf. DOC concentrations (740–3600 µg L−1) were 1 order of magnitude higher than POC (20–360 µg L−1), with higher concentrations towards the Lena River plume. The δ13C signatures in the three carbon pools varied from −23.9 ± 1.9 ‰ in the SOC, −26.1 ± 1.2 ‰ in the DOC and −27.1 ± 1.9 ‰ in the POC. The Δ14C values ranged between −395 ± 83 (SOC), −226 ± 92 (DOC) and −113 ± 122 ‰ (POC). These stable and radiocarbon isotopes were also different between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea. Both DOC and POC showed a depleted and younger trend off the Lena River plume. Further, the Pacific inflow and the sea-ice coverage, which works as a barrier preventing the input of “young” DOC and POC, seem to have a strong influence in these carbon pools, presenting older and more enriched δ13C signatures under the sea-ice extent. Lignin phenols exhibited higher OC-normalized concentrations in the SOC (0.10–2.34 mg g−1 OC) and DOC (0.08–2.40 mg g−1 OC) than in the POC (0.03–1.14 mg g−1 OC). The good relationship between lignin and Δ14C signatures in the DOC suggests that a significant fraction of the outer-shelf DOC comes from “young” Terr-OC. By contrast, the slightly negative correlation between lignin phenols and Δ14C signatures in POC, with higher lignin concentrations in older POC from near-bottom waters, may reflect the off-shelf transport of OC from remobilized permafrost in the nepheloid layer. Syringyl ∕ vanillyl and cinnamyl ∕ vannillyl phenol ratios presented distinct clustering between DOC, POC and SOC, implying that those pools may be carrying different Terr-OC of partially different origin. Moreover, 3,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid to vanillyl phenol ratios and p-coumaric acid to ferulic acid ratios, used as a diagenetic indicators, enhanced in POC and SOC, suggesting more degradation within these pools. Overall, the key contrast between enhanced lignin yields both in the youngest DOC and the oldest POC samples reflects a significant decoupling of terrestrial OC sources and pathways.

Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: a global carbon budget perspective

Abstract. In this study we look beyond the previously studied effects of oceanic CO2 injections on atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs and also account for carbon cycle and climate feedbacks between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. Considering these additional feedbacks is important since backfluxes from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere in response to reducing atmospheric CO2 can further offset the targeted reduction. To quantify these dynamics we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to simulate direct injection of CO2 into the deep ocean as a means of emissions mitigation during a high CO2 emission scenario. In three sets of experiments with different injection depths, we simulate a 100-year injection period of a total of 70 GtC and follow global carbon cycle dynamics over another 900 years. In additional parameter perturbation runs, we varied the default terrestrial photosynthesis CO2 fertilization parameterization by ±50 % in order to test the sensitivity of this uncertain carbon cycle feedback to the targeted atmospheric carbon reduction through direct CO2 injections. Simulated seawater chemistry changes and marine carbon storage effectiveness are similar to previous studies. As expected, by the end of the injection period avoided emissions fall short of the targeted 70 GtC by 16–30 % as a result of carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes in both land and ocean reservoirs. The target emissions reduction in the parameter perturbation simulations is about 0.2 and 2 % more at the end of the injection period and about 9 % less to 1 % more at the end of the simulations when compared to the unperturbed injection runs. An unexpected feature is the effect of the model's internal variability of deep-water formation in the Southern Ocean, which, in some model runs, causes additional oceanic carbon uptake after injection termination relative to a control run without injection and therefore with slightly different atmospheric CO2 and climate. These results of a model that has very low internal climate variability illustrate that the attribution of carbon fluxes and accounting for injected CO2 may be very challenging in the real climate system with its much larger internal variability.

Sea level and ground water table depth (WTD): A biogeochemical pacemaker for glacial-interglacial cycling

Abstract The role that changes in sea level have on potential carbon-climate feedbacks are discussed as a potential contributing mechanism for terminating glacial periods. Focus will be on coastal wetlands because these systems can be substantially altered by changing sea level and ground water table depth (WTD); in addition to being important moderators of the exchange of nutrients and energy between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. A hypothesis is outlined that describes how the release of carbon from formerly anaerobic wetland soils and sediments can influence climate when sea levels begin to decline. As ground WTD deepens and eventually recedes from the surface, coastal wetland basins may become isolated from their belowground source of water. With their primary source of base flow removed, coastal wetlands likely dried up, promoting decomposition of the carbon compounds buried in their sediments. Depending on the timing of basin isolation and the timing of decomposition, glacial sea level lows could have triggered a relatively large positive carbon feedback on climate warming, just at the time when a new interglacial period is about to begin.

Fate of terrigenous organic matter across the Laptev Sea from the mouth of the Lena River to the deep sea of the Arctic interior

Abstract. Ongoing global warming in high latitudes may cause an increasing supply of permafrost-derived organic carbon through both river discharge and coastal erosion to the Arctic shelves. Mobilized permafrost carbon can be either buried in sediments, transported to the deep sea or degraded to CO2 and outgassed, potentially constituting a positive feedback to climate change. This study aims to assess the fate of terrigenous organic carbon (TerrOC) in the Arctic marine environment by exploring how it changes in concentration, composition and degradation status across the wide Laptev Sea shelf. We analyzed a suite of terrestrial biomarkers as well as source-diagnostic bulk carbon isotopes (δ13C, Δ14C) in surface sediments from a Laptev Sea transect spanning more than 800 km from the Lena River mouth (< 10 m water depth) across the shelf to the slope and rise (2000–3000 m water depth). These data provide a broad view on different TerrOC pools and their behavior during cross-shelf transport. The concentrations of lignin phenols, cutin acids and high-molecular-weight (HMW) wax lipids (tracers of vascular plants) decrease by 89–99 % along the transect. Molecular-based degradation proxies for TerrOC (e.g., the carbon preference index of HMW lipids, the HMW acids ∕ alkanes ratio and the acid ∕ aldehyde ratio of lignin phenols) display a trend to more degraded TerrOC with increasing distance from the coast. We infer that the degree of degradation of permafrost-derived TerrOC is a function of the time spent under oxic conditions during protracted cross-shelf transport. Future work should therefore seek to constrain cross-shelf transport times in order to compute a TerrOC degradation rate and thereby help to quantify potential carbon–climate feedbacks.

Spatial variation in vegetation productivity trends, fire disturbance, and soil carbon across arctic-boreal permafrost ecosystems

In arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems vegetation structural and functional influences on the surface energy balance can strongly influence permafrost soil temperatures. As such, vegetation changes will likely play an important role in permafrost soil carbon dynamics and associated climate feedbacks. Processes that lead to changes in vegetation, such as wildfire or ecosystem responses to rising temperatures, are of critical importance to understanding the impacts of arctic and boreal ecosystems on future climate. Yet these processes vary within and between ecosystems and this variability has not been systematically characterized across the arctic-boreal region. Here we quantify the distribution of vegetation productivity trends, wildfire, and near-surface soil carbon, by vegetation type, across the zones of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Siberian larch forests contain more than one quarter of permafrost soil carbon in areas of continuous permafrost. We observe pervasive positive trends in vegetation productivity in areas of continuous permafrost, whereas areas underlain by discontinuous permafrost have proportionally less positive productivity trends and an increase in areas exhibiting negative productivity trends. Fire affects a much smaller proportion of the total area and thus a smaller amount of permafrost soil carbon, with the vast majority occurring in deciduous needleleaf forests. Our results indicate that vegetation productivity trends may be linked to permafrost distribution, fire affects a relatively small proportion of permafrost soil carbon, and Siberian larch forests will play a crucial role in the strength of the permafrost carbon climate feedback.

Increasing summer net CO<sub>2</sub> uptake in high northern ecosystems inferred from atmospheric inversions and comparisons to remote-sensing NDVI

Abstract. Warmer temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last several decades have been credited with increasing vegetation activity and photosynthetic uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere in the high northern latitude ecosystems: the boreal forest and arctic tundra. At the same time, soils in the region have been warming, permafrost is melting, fire frequency and severity are increasing, and some regions of the boreal forest are showing signs of stress due to drought or insect disturbance. The recent trends in net carbon balance of these ecosystems, across heterogeneous disturbance patterns, and the future implications of these changes are unclear. Here, we examine CO2 fluxes from northern boreal and tundra regions from 1985 to 2012, estimated from two atmospheric inversions (RIGC and Jena). Both used measured atmospheric CO2 concentrations and wind fields from interannually variable climate reanalysis. In the arctic zone, the latitude region above 60° N excluding Europe (10° W–63° E), neither inversion finds a significant long-term trend in annual CO2 balance. The boreal zone, the latitude region from approximately 50–60° N, again excluding Europe, showed a trend of 8–11 Tg C yr−2 over the common period of validity from 1986 to 2006, resulting in an annual CO2 sink in 2006 that was 170–230 Tg C yr−1 larger than in 1986. This trend appears to continue through 2012 in the Jena inversion as well. In both latitudinal zones, the seasonal amplitude of monthly CO2 fluxes increased due to increased uptake in summer, and in the arctic zone also due to increased fall CO2 release. These findings suggest that the boreal zone has been maintaining and likely increasing CO2 sink strength over this period, despite browning trends in some regions and changes in fire frequency and land use. Meanwhile, the arctic zone shows that increased summer CO2 uptake, consistent with strong greening trends, is offset by increased fall CO2 release, resulting in a net neutral trend in annual fluxes. The inversion fluxes from the arctic and boreal zones covering the permafrost regions showed no indication of a large-scale positive climate–carbon feedback caused by warming temperatures on high northern latitude terrestrial CO2 fluxes from 1985 to 2012.

Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models

Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (ESMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for reducing existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation data for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling, we used soil profile observations (585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5–5.5m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5–22kgm−2) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors, when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primary factors leading to observed differences were (1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate these factors in ESMs should reduce current uncertainties associated with ESM predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks.