In this study, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is performed to evaluate the efficiency of governmental forest investment in carbon sequestration based on data from the seventh forest investigation and forest carbon storage estimated by Li & Lei for 2004–2008. Then, DEA is performed to evaluate comprehensive efficiency using data from areas of afforestation and natural reserves as indices of carbon benefit. For 20 provinces analysed in this study, employment in the forest industry is used as an index of social benefit, and forestry production is used as an index of economic benefit. These provinces include Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shanxi, Gansu, and Xinjiang. Next, the elements that influence the efficiencies in the spatial error model (SEM) and spatial lag model (SLM) are evaluated. The results show that carbon sequestration efficiency differs for different output indices. The comprehensive efficiencies of the provinces in East China and South-central China are superior to those of the provinces in Northeast, North, Southeast and Northwest China. Both efficiencies are affected by adjacent provinces, though comprehensive efficiency is influenced the most. The level of technique and management is the most important element influencing the carbon sequestration efficiency and comprehensive efficiency. The influencing elements of carbon sequestration show that workers who have been laid off negatively impact the efficiency of governmental investment. Afforestation investment and wildlife and natural reserve investment have the greatest influence on carbon sequestration efficiency. An evaluation of comprehensive influential elements shows that the primary industry of forestry has a greater influence on efficiency than revenue from forest parks, although the government advocates for industrial transformation. Social investment influences comprehensive efficiency. The lack of social investment in provinces with undeveloped economies reduces forestry development.
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