Mark-recapture Research Articles

Reinforcement of an endangered goose population: the effect of age and interspecific fostering on survival of released birds

The release of captive‐bred or translocated individuals is a strategy used worldwide to support threatened animal populations. By capture–recapture analysis, we examined the survival of released individuals when reinforcing a critically endangered Lesser White‐fronted Goose population. Our analysis includes data from 646 birds, released 1984–2017, including two different age classes, divided in two distinct periods when different techniques were used. Fledglings were released with foster parents of Barnacle Geese in the first period and by a soft release without support of foster parenting in the second period. Yearlings were released by soft release in both periods. We find that use of foster parents enhances survival rates, but these differences were detectable only in the first year of life. Fledglings supported by foster parents showed significantly higher survival compared to yearlings released by soft release, but this difference was not clear when soft release was applied to both groups. Resighting data suggest that most losses occurred during the acclimation period following the release. Foster parenting may enhance survival rates due to social learning enabling the transfer of crucial behaviors (e.g. feeding, anti‐predator, and migration) to released individuals. However, these conservation benefits need to be balanced against costs and potential inherent risks related to foster parenting, including the imprinting of undesired behaviors in released individuals, such as hybridization. Based on our results, we advise conservationists to carefully consider foster parenting as one method to improve survival probability, especially if capacity to produce individuals to be released is a limiting factor.

Longevity records for bird species from the central Monte desert, Argentina

ABSTRACT Longevity is a key life-history parameter of bird species, highly relevant for the development of evolutionary biology, the study of ecological patterns and conservation planning. However, there is a marked paucity of data for Neotropical birds, mainly because estimating longevity requires long-term studies that are very scarce in temperate South America. We report data on the longevity of 25 bird species obtained in an 8-year long-term capture–recapture programme carried out in the Monte desert in Argentina and evaluate the influence of diet and migratory status on this life-history trait. The maximum value recorded was 105 months for Microspingus torquatus and the minimum was 13 months for Synallaxis albescens. Resident birds had higher average longevity than migratory birds, while species consuming mainly plant material had higher longevity values than those consuming mainly animal foods. Our results are similar to the few published records from temperate South America, although more data are needed to assess the impact of diet and migratory behaviour on longevity of Neotropical species.

Detecting bias in abundance estimates of spawning fish from closed‐capture models using remote and physical capture data

AbstractObjectiveMixed‐data models incorporating remote antenna detections from PIT‐tagged fish together with physical capture data (mixed data) can improve precision of mark–recapture abundance estimates, particularly for spawning fish. However, if the entire population is not available for physical capture during the mark–recapture sampling period, abundance estimates will be biased low. Our objectives were to examine bias and precision of two modeling approaches and develop a simple diagnostic to determine whether the entire population was sampled.MethodsWe use a simulation modeling approach to compare specified abundances with abundance estimates from closed‐capture models using mixed data (the mixed‐data approach) and using only marked (e.g., PIT‐tagged) individuals divided by the proportion of individuals that are marked (proportional approach). We use the difference in bias between the two models as our diagnostic of whether a population was randomly sampled. We then applied our diagnostic to two case studies: a spawning population of adfluvial June Sucker Chasmistes liorus in Utah Lake, Utah, 2008–2020, and a spawning population of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus in the Imnaha River, a tributary of the Snake River, Oregon, 2013–2020.ResultSimulation experiments revealed that the mixed‐data approach became increasingly negatively biased as the proportion of the population that was unavailable for physical capture increased, yet the proportional approach remained unbiased. Abundance estimates from the proportional approach averaged approximately 6× greater for June Sucker and 2× greater for Bull Trout compared to the mixed‐data approach, suggesting a proportion of the population was not available for physical capture in both case studies.ConclusionUnderstanding the magnitude of bias in abundance estimates is particularly important for the management of imperiled species that are subject to recovery plans. Comparing estimates using the unbiased proportional approach that we described here with those from a mixed‐data approach when PIT tag detection data are used to estimate abundance is a straightforward method to evaluate bias in these estimates.

Navigating discreetly: Spatial ecology of urban wild boar in Bordeaux City's landscape of fear, France

An exemplary urban adapter, the wild boar (Sus scrofa) has successfully colonized urban ecological niches worldwide. Improvement of strategies for optimal management of urban wild boar need to gather more empirical evidence of their spatial ecology. This study is based on GPS tracking and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) of 10 and 59 wild boar, respectively, captured in Bordeaux Metropolis (France). It shows that wild boar have become urban dwellers, with intra-urban home ranges varying from 1.3 to 64.6 km2 (MCP 100 %) and from 0.5 to 9.6 km2 (KDE 95 %), depending on urban conditions. CMR results confirm the low propensity to move away from urban areas (with a mean distance of 2 km between capture and recapture sites), despite a relatively low one-year survival rate since capture (47.5 %), primarily attributable to removal efforts. Wild boar strongly depended on urban woods, mostly during daytime resting, and highly frequented urban meadows during night foraging. Their use of urban agricultural areas was minimal, but they were mostly monitored following corn and grape harvests. Wild boar mitigated the risk associated with close proximity to humans by: a nocturnal activity (72.2 % of active locations registered from sunset to sunrise), which could also be partially attributed to their sensitivity to heat; a strong use of covered habitats, especially during daytime resting and when close to buildings and roads; and a low mobility during night-time foraging (1974 m average daily distance travelled). Moreover, we demonstrate high inter- and intra-individual variability in the spatio-temporal behaviour of urban wild boar. Finally, we discuss the gap between these results and the narratives surrounding the spatial ecology of urban wild boar. Our results not only confirm the species' ability to adapt to urban environments, but also highlight their behavioural flexibility, underscoring the relevance of significant changes in representations and management activities to mitigate human-urban wild boar conflicts.

Estimating effective population size using close‐kin mark–recapture

Abstract Close‐kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is a method that allows estimating population census size, among other parameters, through the observed number of pairs that are close‐kin including parent–offspring pairs (POPs) and half‐sibling pairs (HSPs). CKMR models are capable of estimating abundance, fecundity and survival at age using POPs and HSPs from different cohorts. The link between effective population size (Ne) and the number of ‘within‐cohort’ sibling pairs has been noted before but how to actually achieve such an estimate with CKMR has not been previously demonstrated. We show it is possible to use the number of ‘within‐cohort’ sibling pairs along with POPs and ‘different‐cohort’ HSPs to estimate Ne. These can be combined with an estimate of annual variance in number of offspring to estimate the lifetime variance of total reproductive success which can be used to find Ne. We show that the variance in number of offspring produced by adults in a given year is related to the within‐cohort comparisons. Our approach is demonstrated on an individual‐based simulation where we show that the CKMR Ne estimate offers similar results to Ne estimated from methods like linkage disequilibrium. Our methods allow estimating Ne using CKMR while also estimating demographic parameters.

Can waterfowl buffer the mortality risk induced by GPS tags? A cautionary tale for applied inference across species

GPS tags have become a common tool in ecological studies of animal behaviour and demography despite previous research indicating negative impacts on vital rates across a variety of taxa. Many researchers face tradeoffs when deciding whether they are an appropriate tool because GPS tags may impact vital rates, but they provide detailed data on movements and behaviour that often cannot be obtained in other ways. Using band recovery data, we evaluated the strength of effects induced by GPS tags on annual mortality of adult females across 13 waterfowl taxa, and examined whether taxa with a slower life-history strategy and larger body size were more resilient to GPS tag effects than their fast-lived counterparts with small body size. All species were exposed to hunting, which may interact with underlying processes affecting the impact of GPS tags on mortality, but also allowed for robust analysis of overall annual mortality. Hazard ratios, indicating the risk of death for individuals wearing GPS tags compared to those wearing only metal bands, ranged from 1.13 to 3.25 and the mean proportional difference in survival between marker types across species was 0.33. The magnitude of tag effects was surprisingly consistent across life-history tempo and body size, indicating that slower-lived species did not buffer the effect of wearing GPS tags. Our results highlight that even large, long-lived species, which are generally better at buffering their mortality against environmental adversity, are not immune to the effects GPS tags can have on survival and mortality. The results of our study emphasize the importance of testing for such effects across taxa in future research as technology advances.

Perilous state of critically endangered Northwest African cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus hecki) across the Sudano‐Sahel

AbstractNorthwest African cheetah populations have declined precipitously, with expert opinion estimating that <420 individuals persist across parts of Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Mali. However, no reliable density estimates exist in the remaining subspecies strongholds throughout the Sudano‐Sahel Zone, including the W‐Arly‐Pendjari Complex and Greater Zakouma Ecosystem within the Bahr/Salamat landscape. Camera trap surveys were combined with spatially explicit capture–recapture methodologies in both regions to estimate the cheetah density and detectable demographic composition of these populations. Following 15 429 camera trap nights, we detected nine individuals during the dry season and four individuals during the wet season in Pendjari (2021), nine individuals (dry season; 2023) in Zakouma and none in Siniaka Minia. Cheetah densities were thus estimated at 0.17–0.24 and 0.37 cheetah per 100 km2 in Pendjari and Zakouma, respectively. While marginally higher than predicted, such low‐density estimates are concerning in the last remaining habitats harbouring this critically endangered subspecies. Considering the substantial contraction of regional cheetah distribution, we estimate an overall population size of 68 ± 29 individuals across the studied areas. These novel estimates are among the lowest formally determined densities throughout cheetah range in Africa, where a high frequency of people and livestock detected on camera traps highlight the ongoing risks to large carnivores in these protected areas. Subsequent management recommendations include implementation of the established regional conservation strategies that encompass the distributional range of these cheetah, continuous monitoring of populations, genetic analyses to inform management, curbing illegal trade and increasing international awareness around the plight of the subspecies.

Mark-Release-Recapture Trial with Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) Irradiated Males: Population Parameters and Climatic Factors.

Aedes albopictus is considered one of the major invasive species in the world and can transmit viruses such as dengue, Zika, or chikungunya. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) can be used to suppress the native populations of Ae. albopictus. Mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies are crucial to support the development of the release strategy during the SIT application. Meanwhile, weather conditions can affect the MRR trial's results and it is critical to understand the influence of climatic factors on the results. In October 2022, 84,000 irradiated sterile males were released for three consecutive weeks in Faro, Southern Portugal. Mosquitoes were recaptured by human landing collection (HLC) one, two, four, and six days after release. Generalized linear models with a negative binomial family and log function were used to estimate the factors associated with the number of recaptured mosquitoes, prevalence ratios, and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 84,000 sterile male mosquitoes were released, with 528 recaptured (0.8%) by HLC. The prevalence of recaptured mosquitoes was 23% lower when the wind intensity was moderate. Marked sterile males had an average median distance travelled of 88.7 m. The median probability of daily survival and the average life expectancy were 61.6% and 2.1 days, respectively. The wild male population estimate was 443.33 males/ha. Despite no statistically significant association being found with humidity, temperature, and precipitation, it is important to consider weather conditions during MRR trial analyses to obtain the best determinant estimation and a more efficient application of the SIT in an integrated vector management program.

COVID-19-infected cases in Thailand during the Omicron wave using the capture-recapture method

Thailand is among many countries, severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In December 2021, the Thai Ministry of Public Health announced the discovery of the first imported case of the Omicron variant, and the local transmission of the Omicron variant was confirmed. The Omicron variant spread rapidly but was less dangerous than the Delta. Some patients experienced mild or no symptoms and self-treated without requiring medical assistance. Lower fatality rates during the Omicron outbreak were reported compared with previous variants. Information concerning hidden COVID-19-infected patients is beneficial and will lead to a better understanding of the disease outbreak mechanism. This study proposed the lower bound estimator under the capture-recapture (CR) method to estimate the true value of COVID-19 infections in Thailand during the Omicron wave. The Chao lower bound estimator for the Poisson mixture model was created to take into account the fact that populations can be different based on how cases and deaths have been spread out over time. The approximate variance of the estimator was constructed for a confidence interval of 95%, focusing on the ratio of total estimated infected cases to observed cases in March 2022. The average ratio was 2.99 (95% CI: 2.96 to 3.01), suggesting that for every 100 observed patients, at least 199 infected patients were underreported.

Use of capture–recapture models to evaluate abundance and dynamics of a stocked Muskellunge population

AbstractTo evaluate the success of a stocking program in Fox Lake, Minnesota, adult (≥76 cm total length) Muskellunge were captured with large nearshore trap nets and individually marked with passive integrated transponder tags during the 2011–2013 and 2015–2017 spawning seasons; then, capture–recapture data were analyzed at two different time scales. Despite substantial sampling effort, daily capture histories within a single season only supported closed‐population abundance estimates for both sexes in half the years; estimates were imprecise, and there was evidence of trap shyness or violation of the short‐term closure assumption in some years. Jolly–Seber models over all years supported relatively precise abundance estimates for both sexes every year, as well as estimates of annual survival, recruitment, and population growth rate. Link–Barker Jolly–Seber models provided estimates of population growth rate λ ≈ 1 indicating that per‐capita annual recruitment rates of only about 0.15–0.20 were adequate to maintain the adult population given the high annual apparent survival rates of 0.80 for adult females and 0.89 for adult males. POPAN Jolly–Seber models revealed that about 80 adult females and 90–126 adult males were vulnerable to capture each year in the 385 ha lake, and about 16–18 fish of each sex recruited to the adult population annually. This study illustrates the importance of open‐population models with multiple years of data to evaluate the abundance and population dynamics of a low‐density, long‐lived species.

The Effect of Age on Survival Is Similar in Males and Females of an Aquatic Insect Species

Age is a critical intrinsic factor that influences the probability of survival of organisms on Earth. In many animals, the lifestyles and habitat occupancy of males and females are so different that the effect of age could be sex-dependent. To reveal such patterns in wild animal populations, we here use a natural population of the Mediterranean demoiselle Calopteryx haemorrhoidalis Vander Linden (Calopterygidae: Zygoptera) in Northeast Algeria to analyze the influence of age and sex on survival probability using daily capture–mark–recapture. We used stepwise model selection on Cormack–Jolly–Seber models that explain recapture and survival probability, including age and sex as covariates. We marked a total of 214 adults throughout the study period (41 days). The sex ratio did not deviate from unity. Recapture probability depended on sex and time, with a slightly higher recapture probability in males (0.30 [95% CI: 0.27–0.35]) than females (0.26 [0.22–0.30]). The survival probability was slightly higher in females (0.89 [0.86–0.91]) than males (0.86 [0.82–0.88]). The best model for the survival probability included an additive effect of sex and age, indicating that the survival probability of both sexes declined with age. Interestingly, the lifespan of some individuals reached 119–130 days, which is surprisingly long compared to other temperate damselflies.

A Penalized Empirical Likelihood Approach for Estimating Population Sizes under the Negative Binomial Regression Model

In capture–recapture experiments, the presence of overdispersion and heterogeneity necessitates the use of the negative binomial regression model for inferring population sizes. However, within this model, existing methods based on likelihood and ratio regression for estimating the dispersion parameter often face boundary and nonidentifiability issues. These problems can result in nonsensically large point estimates and unbounded upper limits of confidence intervals for the population size. We present a penalized empirical likelihood technique for solving these two problems by imposing a half-normal prior on the population size. Based on the proposed approach, a maximum penalized empirical likelihood estimator with asymptotic normality and a penalized empirical likelihood ratio statistic with asymptotic chi-square distribution are derived. To improve numerical performance, we present an effective expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. In the M-step, optimization for the model parameters could be achieved by fitting a standard negative binomial regression model via the R basic function glm.nb(). This approach ensures the convergence and reliability of the numerical algorithm. Using simulations, we analyze several synthetic datasets to illustrate three advantages of our methods in finite-sample cases: complete mitigation of the boundary problem, more efficient maximum penalized empirical likelihood estimates, and more precise penalized empirical likelihood ratio interval estimates compared to the estimates obtained without penalty. These advantages are further demonstrated in a case study estimating the abundance of black bears (Ursus americanus) at the U.S. Army’s Fort Drum Military Installation in northern New York.

Population Size and Spatial Distribution of the Mexican Blind Cavefish (Astyanax) within the Caves

The most studied cavefish in the world is Astyanax mexicanus, and the most frequently used specimens in research come from the Pachón cave in Northeast Mexico. A recent study using the capture–mark–recapture technique revealed that the Pachón population size is only in the hundreds of individuals, not in the thousands. This result raises serious concerns about their long-term survival and highlights the need to accurately estimate the population size of other Astyanax caves. In our study, we used a well-established, non-invasive method for estimating population size: the transect sampling method, which counts the abundance of organisms along a line at regular intervals. We used the 310 m long Sabinos Cave’s Pool #1 for measurements and estimated a population of 1142 individuals. Most importantly, we found that cavefish are not distributed uniformly: 68% of the individuals were clustered under a bat roost. To corroborate this observation, we used drones to explore submerged galleries inaccessible to scientists. Results from the Toro/Calera Cave system confirmed that most galleries were essentially void of cavefish, except for in those few areas with high amounts of nutrients. Scientists visiting the most studied Astyanax localities (Pachón, Sabinos, Tinaja, and Chica) experience what appear to be high-density populations of about 10 fish/m2, possibly because the pool they visit happens to be under bat roosts. Our study shows that one cannot extrapolate the density at these localities to the rest of the habitat, where densities might be two orders of magnitude lower. Future studies should consider that the apparent high density at visited sites is overrepresenting the total population size when calculating the number of fish specimens to be captured.

Adapting standardized trout monitoring to a changing climate for the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, USA

AbstractObjectiveLong‐term standardized monitoring programs are fundamental to assessing how fish populations respond to anthropogenic stressors. Standardized monitoring programs may need to adopt new methods to adapt to rapid environmental changes that are associated with a changing climate. In the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, biologists have used a standardized, mark–recapture monitoring protocol to annually estimate the abundance of trout since 1978 to assess population status and trends. However, within the past two decades, climate change has caused changes in discharge timing that have prevented standardized monitoring from occurring annually.MethodsWe investigated the feasibility of using two analytical methods, N‐mixture models and mean capture probability, for estimating the abundance of three trout species in the upper Yellowstone River using the historical long‐term data set; these methods allow abundance to be estimated when a mark–recapture estimate cannot be obtained due to hydrologic conditions.ResultWhen compared with abundance estimates from mark–recapture methods, N‐mixture models most often resulted in negatively biased abundance estimates, whereas mean capture probability analyses resulted in positively biased abundance estimates. Additionally, N‐mixture models produced negatively biased estimates when tested against true abundance values from simulated data sets. The bias in the N‐mixture model estimates was caused by poor model fit and variation in capture probability. The bias in the mean capture probability estimates was caused by heterogeneity in capture probability, likely caused by variable environmental conditions, which were not accounted for in the models.ConclusionN‐mixture models and mean capture probability are not viable alternatives for estimating abundance in the upper Yellowstone River. Thus, exploring additional adaptations to sampling methodologies and analytical approaches, including models that require individually marked fish, will be valuable for this system. Climate change will undoubtedly necessitate changes to standardized sampling methods throughout the world; thus, developing alternative sampling and analytical methods will be important for maintaining the utility of long‐term data sets.

Landscape properties and density dependence shape the movement patterns of three threatened butterflies

ContextConservation of endangered species necessitates an in-depth understanding of their ecological requirements. Particularly in landscape ecology, the behavioural tendencies of threatened butterfly species in Gotland, a biodiversity-rich island in the Baltic Sea, become crucial.ObjectivesThe primary aim of this study was to elucidate the movement patterns of three threatened butterfly species—Euphydryas aurinia, Parnassius apollo, and Phengaris arion—in Gotland and to identify the influence of specific land characteristics on these patterns.MethodsOur study, conducted from 2017 to 2020 across 60 km2 in Gotland, involved detailed capture-mark-recapture (CMR) efforts of 29,584 captures including 16,223 unique butterflies. We investigate the departure and arrival events of butterflies, specifically focusing on the associations between movements when individuals leave or enter a hectare grid different from their previously recorded location and key landscape features: open vegetated land, ground moisture, and forest cover. We model landscape features to examine the interplay between these and butterfly movement patterns, providing insights into preferred landscape features and conservation strategies.ResultsAmong the 4821 arrivals and 5083 departures documented, the species exhibited differential responses to the evaluated habitat features. Both E. aurinia and P. apollo displayed a positive density-dependent dispersal, while P. arion’s movements were not significantly associated with any of the examined habitat features. Landscape properties like open vegetated land and ground moisture index statistically influenced the likelihood of arrival and departure.ConclusionsThe study accentuates the relationship between land cover and the behavioural tendencies of the subject butterfly species. It has broader implications for the targeted habitat management strategies that would benefit threatened butterfly populations in Gotland.

A semi-parametric maximum-likelihood analysis of measurement error in population size estimation

Abstract This work addresses the challenge of measurement errors in capture–recapture (CR) studies with covariates. These errors can introduce bias and undermine inference quality. To address this issue, we introduce a nonparametric measurement error model tailored to the ‘repeated counts’ setting, employing EM-type algorithms for parameter estimation. We use the Horvitz–Thompson estimator for population size estimates. Rigorous simulations, covering varying degrees of measurement error reliability, confirm our approach’s effectiveness. Applied to benchmark datasets, it consistently provides more accurate point estimates and robust uncertainty quantification, enhancing the reliability of CR analyses.

Elasmobranch Mark–Recapture Experiment off the Balearic Islands: Insight into Scyliorhinus canicula Growth, Mobility, and Population Size

Despite the high diversity of elasmobranch fishes in the Balearic Islands, knowledge of their biology and population dynamics is still scarce. A recent mark-and-recapture experiment off the Balearic Islands tagged 3738 individuals of 23 shark and batoid species during MEDITS and CANAL bottom trawl scientific surveys from June 2021 to August 2023. Retrieval was reported for the sharks Scyliorhinus canicula and Mustelus mustelus, revealing relatively small home ranges for these species (0.2–38.5 km and 7.8–15.3 km for S. canicula and M. mustelus, respectively). Recapture efficiency was higher from scientific surveys than from commercial catches, highlighting potential challenges in collaboration with fishermen and recapture reports. Density estimates obtained from the MEDITS bottom trawl survey suggest a much larger population for S. canicula than estimates from the mark–recapture data, indicating MEDITS density estimates for this species may be overestimated due to its scavenger behavior perhaps favoring individuals searching for discards aggregated in the fishing grounds. This study emphasizes the importance of monitoring, collaborative efforts, and improved reporting mechanisms to enhance our understanding of elasmobranch populations and provide support for sustainable management of these vulnerable marine species.

Rhodamine-B for the mark, release, and recapture experiments in gamma-irradiated male Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Persistence, dispersal, and its effect on survival.

Rhodamine-B (Rh-B) marking shows a great potential for use in mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies for rear-and-release mosquito control strategies, including the radiation-based sterile insect technique. However, its applicability and evaluation in body-stain-irradiated males of Aedes aegypti have received little attention. The present study evaluated the use of Rh-B to mark gamma-irradiated male A. aegypti. Male A. aegypti were irradiated at the pupal stage at a dose of 70 Gy. After emergence, males were fed 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, or 0.4% Rh-B in 10% glucose solution for 4 days. Groups of unirradiated males that received the same feeding treatments were used as control groups. We evaluated the persistence of Rh-B and the longevity of males after Rh-B feeding. Furthermore, the use of Rh-B in irradiated A. aegypti for MRR experiments was evaluated at an urban site. No difference was observed in the Rh-B persistence among all concentrations at the 24-h postmarking period ranging from 91.25 ± 1.61% to 96.25 ± 1.61% and from 90.00 ± 2.28% to 93.13 ± 2.77% for the unirradiated and irradiated groups, respectively. Rh-B persistence significantly decreased over time, and persistence was significantly longer with increased concentrations in both the unirradiated and irradiated groups. Longevity was considerably decreased by Rh-B feeding and irradiation. However, no significant difference in longevity was found among males fed various concentrations of Rh-B. Through MRR experiments, irradiated-Rh-B marked males were mostly detected within a radius of 20 m and 40 m from the center-release point. The mean distance traveled of the released males from the three MRR events was calculated to be 42.6 m. This study confirms that Rh-B body marking through sugar feeding is applicable for irradiated male A. aegypti, with only a slight effect on longevity. Furthermore, considering the significant reduction in persistence over time, further study is needed to assess the impact of this reduction on the calculation of field biological parameters resulting from MRR experiments.

An ice‐obligate seabird responds to a multi‐decadal decline in Arctic sea ice

AbstractThe Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time‐series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region's marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper trophic‐level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), an ice‐obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish of the ice‐associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multi‐state capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models, and perturbation analysis, we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980 to 2019 for the individually marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from <20 to >200 breeding pairs from 1975 to 1990 in response to increased availability of nesting cavities, before experiencing intermittent declines to <50 pairs in 2021. Immigration and apparent survival were the primary demographic parameters affecting population growth with sea ice extent in late summer and fall the primary environmental driver. The initial growth occurred during a period of primarily negative winter Arctic Oscillations (WAO) and extensive summer sea ice. The decline began when an extremely positive WAO in 1989/1990 initiated changes in atmospheric and oceanographic circulation causing major reductions in summer sea ice throughout the region. The three‐decade decline in the population saw plateaus or minor growth with increasing frequency of negative WAOs and increasing declines following two previously identified “tipping points” in sea ice loss. Breeding success at the study colony declined with decreased availability of Arctic cod due to sea ice loss and increasing sea surface temperature and is presumed to have occurred at the source colonies for immigrants where similar oceanographic changes were occurring. Quasi‐extinction of the colony (reduction to <25 pairs) is predicted within the next two decades. The sensitivity of Mandt's black guillemot to multi‐decadal changes in the Arctic's cryopelagic ecosystem makes it an excellent sentinel species for the region with its recent collapse having dire implications for the Arctic Ocean's constituent species.

An Internal Marking Method for Adult Spodoptera frugiperda Smith Using an Artificial Diet Containing Calco Oil Red N-1700.

As a migratory invasive pest, Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm, FAW) has recently posed a serious threat to food security in newly invaded areas (especially in Africa and Asia). Understanding its migration (or dispersal) patterns in newly invaded areas is crucial for regional forecasting and management efforts. By screening an appropriate marking technique to conduct mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments, the migration patterns of the FAW can be effectively studied. In this study, we added different concentrations of Calco Oil Red N-1700 (an oil-soluble marker) to a self-made artificial diet and assessed the rearing and marking efficacy. The results indicated that a concentration of 0.2% of Calco Oil Red N-1700 in the diet was optimal for marking adult FAWs. The biological indicators (e.g., developmental duration, reproductive parameters, and flight ability) of FAWs fed this diet were basically consistent with those of FAWs fed a normal diet, with a larval stage of 15.46 days, a pupal stage of 9.81 days, a pupal mass of 278.18 mg, an adult longevity of 15.41 days, and an egg deposition count of 1503.51. Meanwhile, the flight distance, duration, and velocity were 24.91 km, 7.16 h, and 3.40 km/h, respectively (12 h tethered-flight tests), without difference with the control. Females and males exhibited distinctive marking colors (red or pink) that persisted for at least 5 and 9 days, respectively. This study developed an economically effective internal marking method for the adult FAW, laying the foundation for conducting MRR experiments. This will help clarify the migration behavior and routes of the FAW, providing a scientific basis for formulating effective pest management strategies.