Capital-skill Complementarity Research Articles

Wage Inequality in Germany: Disentangling Demand and Supply Effects

In this paper we conduct a counterfactual analysis and estimate the quantitative importance of demand and supply effects on wage inequality in Germany using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Auerbach-Kotlikoff (1987) type. Specifically, the methodological contribution of our dynamic CGE model refers to the three-level constant elasticity of substitution production function and the endogenous labor supply of three different skill types, which enable us to isolate the impact of capital-skill complementarity (i.e., demand effects) and varying skill-specific labor supply (i.e., supply effects) on the evolution of the skill premia as defined by the 9th to 1st, the 9th to 5th, and the 5th to 1st decile limit of earnings. In short, our simulation results show that the complementarity effect has a particularly strong positive impact on the skill premium of the high-skilled, while the quantity effect counteracts the complementarity effect and exerts an alleviating pressure on the skill premium of the high-skilled. In quantitative terms, the complementarity effect raises the skill premium of the 9th to 1st and the 9th to 5th decile limit of earnings by more than 1.0 and 0.8 percent per year, respectively. By contrast, the quantity effect reduces both above-mentioned skill premia by almost 0.3 and 0.45 percent per year, respectively. Even though the complementarity and the quantity effects work in opposite directions, the complementarity effect has a much stronger impact on the skill premia of the high-skilled compared with the quantity effect.

Educational Attainment and the Cyclical Sensitivity of Employment

This article examines whether there are educational premiums on the quantity side of the labor market. We document four findings: (1) Trend employment patterns shifted for most educational levels post-1977; (2) the lower the level of educational attainment, the more volatile the employment ratio; (3) the volatility of employment for female high school dropouts increased over time even as the economy became less volatile; and (4) since 1984, the responses of skilled and unskilled employment to the business cycle have become more alike. This latter finding is consistent with a reduced degree of capital-skill complementarity during this period.

Human Capital Accrual, Skill Complementarity, and Urban Migration: New Evidence from China

This study seeks to distinguish among competing theories of urbanization in an explanation of recent, massive rural-to-urban migration in China. Specifically, the research evaluates whether Chinese urbanization following the 1990s liberalization of mobility and residential location restrictions was driven by migrant learning opportunities as in the skill-transition urbanization technology (Lucas, 2004), or instead was associated with a traditional dual-skill urbanization technology in which opportunities for migrant skill upgrading were largely absent. The analysis is facilitated by the application of an unusually rich data set to estimate skill-based selection of Chinese migrants in the context of a utility-maximizing directional migration model. Research findings suggest substantial differentials across skill-based strata in migratory response to regional disparities in returns to education. Model simulation further indicates that those disparities derive largely from regional variations in human capital rather than from positive skill complementarities in production (Giannetti, 2003; Berry and Glaeser, 2005) and accordingly serve to encourage regional convergence in human capital concentration. Further, results fail to support the hypothesis that benefits of human capital externalities in learning accrue to low-skilled migrants. According to Lucas (2004), such benefits operate as a key mechanism for economic transition from a dual-skill economy to a modern urbanized economy. The lack of such human capital externalities is consistent with the pervasiveness of institutional barriers in China which sustained urban segregation in occupation and social interactions to the disadvantage of low-skilled migrants (Wang and Zuo, 1999). Our estimates do show strong social interaction benefits for the educated population strata, which contributed to regional divergence in human capital concentration.

Two‐level CES Production Technology in the Solow and Diamond Growth Models*

AbstractThe two‐level CES aggregate production function—that nests a CES into another CES function—has recently been used extensively in theoretical and empirical applications of macroeconomics. We examine the theoretical properties of this production technology and establish existence and stability conditions of steady states under the Solow and Diamond growth models. It is shown that in the Solow model the sufficient condition for a steady state is fulfilled for a wide range of substitution parameter values. This is in sharp contrast with the two‐factor Solow model, where only an elasticity of substitution equal to one is sufficient to guarantee the existence of a steady state. In the Diamond model, multiple equilibria can occur when the aggregate elasticity of substitution is lower than the capital share. Moreover, it is shown that for high initial levels of capital and factor substitutability, the effect of a further increase in a substitution parameter on the steady state depends on capital–skill complementarity.

WHY HAVE AGGREGATE SKILLED HOURS BECOME SO CYCLICAL SINCE THE MID‐1980s?*

We document and discuss a dramatic change in the cyclical behavior of aggregate skilled hours since the mid‐1980s. Using CPS data for 1979:1–2003:4, we find that the volatility of skilled hours relative to the volatility of GDP has nearly tripled since 1984. In contrast, the cyclical properties of unskilled hours have remained essentially unchanged. We evaluate whether a simple supply/demand model for skilled and unskilled labor with capital‐skill complementarity in production can help explain this stylized fact. Our model accounts for about 60% of the observed increase in the relative volatility of skilled labor.

A Nonparametric Examination of Capital-Skill Complementarity

This paper uses nonparametric kernel methods to construct observation-specific elasticities of substitution for a balanced panel of 73 developed and developing countries to examine the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis. The exercise shows some support for capital-skill complementarity, but the strength of the evidence depends upon the definition of skilled labor and the elasticity of substitution measure being used. The added flexibility of the nonparametric procedure is also able to uncover that the elasticities of substitution vary across countries, groups of countries and time periods.

The role of human capital in China's economic development: Review and new evidence

Abstract We carefully utilize empirical methods and measurement, and find that the effect of human capital on China's economic growth may be indirect through physical capital investment. This result is different than that found for OECD countries and has not been suggested by previous studies. In addition, in determining physical capital investment, workers with college education play a more significant role than those with primary and secondary education, suggesting the possibility of capital-skill complementarity. This finding has implications for China's future regional growth inequality: the inequality may increase rather than decrease, because physical capital investment continues to accumulate faster in the eastern area where the human capital stock is larger and thus leads to greater economic growth in the east.

Education, demographics, and the economy

AbstractThis paper deals with two issues concerning the effects of population aging on education decisions in the presence of a PAYG pension system: We first analyze the effects of an aging population per se on individual skill choices and continuous education and the production structure. Second, we study the implications of postponed retirement, which is often proposed as a measure to cope with the economic challenges of increased longevity. Our study uses a dynamic general equilibrium framework with overlapping generations and probabilistic aging. The model allows for capital–skill complementarity in the production of final output.As a response to population aging, in a small open economy with a fixed interest rate, our first simulation shows that GDP is depressed due to an adverse effect on skill choice and labor supply. We then introduce postponed retirement as a potentially dampening policy measure due to its encouragement of human capital formation. However, since there is less private saving in this scenario, the overall effect on GDP is even worse than in the pure aging scenario.

Education, Demographics, and the Economy

This paper deals with two issues concerning the effects of population aging on education decisions in the presence of a PAYG pension system: We first analyze the effects of an aging population per se on individual skill choices and continuous education and the production structure. Second, we study the implications of postponed retirement, which is often proposed as a measure to cope with the economic challenges of increased longevity. Our study uses a dynamic general equilibrium framework with overlapping generations and probabilistic aging. The model allows for capital-skill complementarity in the production of final output. As a response to population aging, in a small open economy with a fixed interest rate, our first simulation shows that GDP is depressed due to an adverse effect on skill choice and labor supply. We then introduce postponed retirement as a potentially dampening policy measure due to its encouragement of human capital formation. However, since there is less private saving in this scenario, the overall effect on GDP is even worse than in the pure aging scenario.

Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A sensitivity analysis

Krusell et al. in [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] analyzed the capital–skill complementarity hypothesis as an explanation for the behavior of the US skill premium. We refit Krusell et al.'s [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] model with two alternative capital equipment price series: One proposed by Greenwood et al. [Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., Krusell, P., 1997. Long-run implications of investment-specific technological change. Amer. Econ. Rev. 87 (3), 342–362] and the official, revised National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data. We find that capital–skill complementarity is preserved, but other results were sensitive to the data used. Specifically, the fit of the model was similar to Krusell et al.'s [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] using the NIPA data, but not the Greenwood et al. [Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., Krusell, P., 1997. Long-run implications of investment-specific technological change. Amer. Econ. Rev. 87 (3), 342–362] data. Also, both series produce estimates of the elasticity of substitution between unskilled labor and equipment that are substantially larger than Krusell et al.'s [Krusell, P., Ohanian, L., Ríos-Rull, J.V., Violante, G.L., 2000. Capital–skill complementarity and inequality: A macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica 68 (5), 1029–1053] estimates.

Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Sensitivity Analysis

In Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis, Krusell et al. (2000) analyzed the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis as an explanation for the behavior of the U.S. skill premium. This paper shows that their model's fit and the values of the estimated parameters are very sensitive to the data used: Alternative measures of the capital series predict skill premia that bear little resemblance to the data. We also include ten additional years of data to address the claim made by other authors that the evolution of the skill premium changed during the 1990s, but we find little evidence of this change.

Low-skilled unemployment, capital-skill complementarity and embodied technical progress

Models developed by recent economic literature do not manage to account simultaneously for the three main stylized facts observed in many EU countries since the mid-seventies: (i) the increase in the overall unemployment rate; (ii) the difference between high-skilled and low-skilled unemployment; (iii) the stability of relative wages. This paper focuses on these issues. We construct an intertemporal general equilibrium model seeking to reproduce these facts. We consider two types of jobs and two types of workers. We allow for job competition between high- and low-skilled workers on the low-skilled segment of the labor market and for on-the-job search. Matching processes are represented by matching functions a la Pissarides. Low-skilled search intensities are endogenous and high-skilled workers decide on the amount of effort they devote to search in each labor market segment. Biased technological change is introduced via embodied technical progress and capital-skill complementarity. The model is calibrated and simulated to evaluate the impact of various types of shocks. The model reproduces quite well the unemployment rate changes and the relative wage stability observed over the past two decades

Capital–skill complementarity and the immigration surplus

We build a neoclassical growth model with overlapping dynasties and capital–skill complementarities to evaluate changes in immigration policy. Calibrating the model using US data, we quantify the differential effects of skilled and unskilled immigration on factor returns and on the welfare of different sectors of the population. An influx of high-skilled immigrants lowers the wages of skilled workers, raises the wages of unskilled workers, and because of the relative complementarity between capital and skilled labor, substantially raises the rate of return to native-owned capital. By contrast, an influx of unskilled immigrants produces an opposite effect on wages, and has only a negligible effect on the return to capital. Because of capital–skill complementarity, an increase in the number of skilled immigrants generates an immigration surplus—the overall welfare benefit accruing to the native population—that is approximately ten times larger than the immigration surplus generated by an identical increase in the number of unskilled immigrants. This differential welfare effect is far higher than can be accounted for by the disparity between the productivities of each type of worker.

Capital–skill complementarity and the redistributive effects of Social Security Reform

This paper analyses the general equilibrium implications of reforming pay-as-you-go pension systems in an economy with heterogeneous agents, human capital investment and capital–skill complementarity. It shows that increasing funding, by raising savings, delivers in the long run higher physical and human capital and therefore higher output, but also higher across-group wage and income inequality. It also shows that the general equilibrium effects induced by this reform affect groups' sizes in a way that the higher across-group inequality generated by more funding goes with a larger share of the population against redistribution.

Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and Factor Prices

We show how, in general equilibrium models featuring increasing returns, imperfect competition and endogenous markups, changes in the scale of economic activity affect income distribution across factors. Whenever final goods are gross-substitutes (gross-complements), a scale expansion raises (lowers) the relative reward of the scarce factor or the factor used intensively in the sector characterized by a higher degree of product differentiation and higher fixed costs. Under very reasonable hypothesis, our theory suggests that scale is skill-biased. This result provides a microfoundation for the secular increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Moreover, it constitutes an important link among major explanations for the rise in wage inequality: skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarities and international trade. We provide new evidence on the mechanism underlying the skill bias of scale.

Capital-skill complementarity, productivity and wages: Evidence from plant-level data for a developing country

Different types of labor and capital inputs have varying productive contributions that are dependent on plant characteristics. We estimate such contributions and their underlying determinants, recognizing the interactions among labor and capital components that reflect their substitutability or complementarity, for Turkish manufacturing plants. We distinguish technical and non-technical labor, and structures, machinery and computer capital, as well as the shares of female workers and imported capital in our production function specification. We find capital-skill complementary for both machinery and computers; greater productive contributions and thus wages for skilled labor are associated with more machinery intensity and computer use. The reverse is true for unskilled labor, which is complementary only with capital structures. Our results suggest that synergies among skilled (technical) labor, computers, and machinery capital have productivity- and skilled wage-enhancing effects that could contribute to productivity convergence of developing toward developed countries, even with their differing industry and input composition.

Rising wage inequality and capital–skill complementarity

Increased wage inequality has been a sensitive policy issue in OECD economies in recent decades. A shortcoming in the literature investigating its causes, especially with regard to the role of new technology, is that technical change is commonly determined residually. We address this limitation by specifying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that identifies four labour types and three capital assets. When capital assets are measured in efficiency units and there is capital–skill complementarity, we can explain a large component of the increase in UK wage inequality over the 1980–1997 period in terms of changes in factor endowments. This result has implications for how policy makers might react to rising skill premiums.

Low-skilled unemployment, capital-skill complementarity and embodied technical progress

SummaryModels developed by recent economic literature do not manage to account simultaneously for the three main stylized facts observed in many EU countries since the mid-seventies: (i) the increase in the overall unemployment rate; (ii) the difference between high-skilled and low-skilled unemployment; (iii) the stability of relative wages. This paper focuses on these issues. We construct an intertemporal general equilibrium model seeking to reproduce these facts. We consider two types of jobs and two types of workers. We allow for job competition between high- and low-skilled workers on the low-skilled segment of the labor market and for on-the-job search. Matching processes are represented by matching functions á la Pissarides. Low-skilled search intensities are endogenous and high-skilled workers decide on the amount of effort they devote to search in each labor market segment. Biased technological change is introduced via embodied technical progress and capital- skill complementarity. The model is calibrated and simulated to evaluate the impact of various types of shocks. The model reproduces quite well the unemployment rate changes and the relative wage stability observed over the past two decades.

Will the Skill-Premium in the Netherlands Rise in the Next Decades?

While the skill-premium has been rising sharply in the US and the UK for 20 years, the Dutch skill-premium decreased for much of that period and only started to rise in the early 90s. In this paper, we investigate whether the Dutch skill-premium will rise in the next decades. To answer this question, we forecast the skill-premium using the Katz and Murphy (1992) and the Krusell et al. (2000) models. The Katz and Murphy model (KM) explains demand shifts by skill-biased technological change in unobservable variables captured by a time trend. In contrast, the Krusell et al. model (KORV) explains demand shifts by (observable) changes in the capital stock under a capital-skill complementarity technology. The results show that while the KM model predicts that the skill-premium will have increased by 30% in 2020, based on realistic predictions of the stock of capital, the KORV model predicts that the skill-premium will remain between -5% and +5% of its 1996 level.

Labour Mobility, Capital-Skill Complementarity and the Redistributive Effects of Trade Integration

This paper addresses the role of mobility costs in shaping the effects of trade integration on wage inequality and welfare. We present a three-factor, two-sector model in which the production technology exhibits capital-skill complementarity and the cost of moving across sectors differs between unskilled and skilled workers. We consider a proportional tax on skilled workers' wage that is used to finance a re-training program to reduce the mobility costs of unskilled workers. We show that if the training program is sufficiently effective, a positive tax rate can both reduce wage inequalities and reinforce the welfare-enhancing effects of trade integration. In addition we show that, even when the public programme entails some welfare losses, it can make trade integration Pareto superior with respect to autarky.