Capital Mistake Research Articles

Big Data Analytics in Digital Knowledge Society

Data science is the 21st Century subject. But in Arthur Conan Doyle’s A Study in Scarlet published in 1887, Sherlock Holmes said that it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. In the book entitled “Big Data for Managers: Creating Value”, the authors Atal Malviya and Mike Malmgren presented big data concept in the context of different analytic perspectives. Actually, data without analysis and interpretation is lame. Data itself is unable to walk till the stick of analytics is held tight. The book starts with an introduction that outlines different contexts of the big data concept. Read More ...

It Is a Capital Mistake to Theorize Who to Treat with Checkpoint Inhibitors before One Has Data

Immunotherapy results in remarkable clinical benefit in a subset of cancer patients by activating the patient's own immune system. The factors determining which cancer patients will benefit are diverse. Success in realizing precision immunotherapy needs collaboration to bring together multiple diverse data sets. Defining multi-factorial biomarker algorithms for immunotherapy requires new approaches and methodologies that use deep molecular and cellular profiling of the tumor microenvironment, systemic immunity with clinical metadata from clinical trials, and other databases.

Beta1-Adrenergic Receptor Regulation Revisited.

The actions and regulation of cardiomyocyte β1ARs differ in several respects from the properties described for the prototypical β2AR subtype; a mechanism to explain the unique properties of the β1AR subtype has never been obvious. This viewpoint summarizes recent studies that identify a novel signaling paradigm for the β1AR, implicating the N-terminus as a molecular determinant of β1AR responsiveness.

What Can Big Data Tell Us About Health?: Finding Gold Through Data Mining.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data," said Sherlock Holmes creator and author Arthur Conan Doyle in 1887. In this era of big data, and especially the crush of medical information becoming available through new technologies and bulging databases, Doyle's quote could be updated to: "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data and understands what they mean."

The Capital Mistake: Local Information and National Electoral Reforms

Electoral reforms are often portrayed as decisions by rational actors. However, expectations about the electoral consequences of reforms are not always realized ex post. I argue that these mistakes occur because of information failures. Even though electoral reforms are decided at a national level, electoral information is geographically concentrated at a local level, where elections take place. At the time of reforms, members of the National Congress need to gather local level information. When deciding whether to support or oppose reforms, information varies across actors. Well-informed actors make better decisions, while ill-informed actors end up as strategic fools. A statistical analysis of the Argentine electoral reform in 1912 supports my theoretical expectations.

A capital mistake? The neglected effect of immigration on average wages

Much recent literature on the wage effects of immigration assumes that the return to capital, and therefore the average wage, is unaffected in the long run. If immigration is modelled as a continuous flow rather than a one-off shock, this result does not necessarily hold. A simple calibration with pre-crisis US immigration rates gives a reduction in average wages of 5%, larger than most estimates of the effect on relative wages.

A reply

I thank the readership of Anaesthesia for their interest and thought-provoking comments on my editorial [1]. Dr Ip queries whether there is any alternative to civil litigation, with its substantial legal costs, in compensating patients harmed by negligent acts. Some jurisdictions have considered this question and come up with no-fault compensation schemes. Although a sustainable model for such a scheme has arguably not yet been developed, it should not stop us from trying to devise a process that is rapid, low-cost, and that, critically, is not dependent upon finding fault before compensating individuals for financial loss resulting from their injury. With regard to Wooley and Roe, it may be that the subsequent fall-off in the use of spinal anaesthesia may have protected patients from what must be the very rare phenomenon of contaminated equipment, but surely this would have been greatly outweighed by the morbidity and mortality associated with the inevitable increased usage of general anaesthesia. I certainly agree that it is foolish to take actions based on erroneous or incomplete data (Sherlock Holmes –“it is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data”– would concur), but would argue that this is much more likely to happen in a court of law than in a peer-review journal. Dr Norman, in typically generous mood, comments positively on the ability of lawyers and judges to understand and assess scientific evidence; this may well reflect that he is more adept at getting the message across than me. My own experience is that, when a court decision is examined in the cold light of day after the emotion has died down, it does not always stand up to dispassionate peer scrutiny. I would, incidentally, strongly support his plea for a more structured process whereby lessons from civil litigation can be shared with the medical profession. I thank Dr Harrison for his thoughtful comments, but hope he never appeared as an expert before Cresswell J before 1997. Experts were indeed more likely to stray from their duty to the court before the Civil Procedure Rules, but that duty was no different to what it is today. The good judge took against one such individual in the Ikarian Reefer case (relating, rather disappointingly, to a ship that foundered rather than to a marijuana cigarette), and gave him both barrels with regard to his apparent bias towards those instructing him [2]. The principle of an anaesthetic consent form is well-recognised in many countries and jurisdictions, but has so far not taken root in the UK. The working party established by the Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland to update its guidance on consent in 2006 took advice on this issue and decided not to include it as a recommendation [3]. However, we did stress the need to ensure that the elements of a discussion between anaesthetist and patient were recorded, usually on the pre-operative assessment chart. While notes such as this are not formally signed by the parties, they have, to the best of my knowledge, never been successfully challenged in court. Dr Bogod has a medicolegal practice acting for both claimants and defendants. He chaired the AAGBI working party on consent for anaesthesia in 2006. Previously posted at the Anaesthesia Correspondence website: http://www.anaesthesiacorrespondence.com.

On ‘evidence’

On ‘evidence’

Improving Data Quality: Actors, Incentives, and Capabilities

This paper examines the construction and use of data sets in political science. We focus on three interrelated questions: How might we assess data quality? What factors shape data quality? and How can these factors be addressed to improve data quality? We first outline some problems with existing data set quality, including issues of validity, coverage, and accuracy, and we discuss some ways of identifying problems as well as some consequences of data quality problems. The core of the paper addresses the second question by analyzing the incentives and capabilities facing four key actors in a data supply chain: respondents, data collection agencies (including state bureaucracies and private organizations), international organizations, and finally, academic scholars. We conclude by making some suggestions for improving the use and construction of data sets.It is a capital mistake, Watson, to theorise before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment.—Sherlock Holmes in “A Study in Scarlet”Statistics make officials, and officials make statistics.”—Chinese proverb

National Visions of Initial Teacher Education? The Conceptualisation of the Initial Preparation of Secondary Teachers in England, France and Scotland

This article presents the conceptual analysis which forms the background to an empirical comparative study which is currently in progress. The study compares the initial preparation of secondary teachers offered in three postgraduate courses in France, England and Scotland respectively. It aims to investigate and compare the conceptual frameworks for initial teacher education (ITE) which underpin these three training programmes. The conceptual framework for ITE corresponds to underlying conceptions of the role of the teacher; of teaching as a professional activity; of what constitutes good practice; of the process of learning to teach and how best to support it. “I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.” Sherlock Holmes

De Bruijn notation as a nested datatype

“I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.” Sir Arthur Conan Doyle The Adventures of Sherlock Holmesde Bruijn notation is a coding of lambda terms in which each occurrence of a bound variable x is replaced by a natural number, indicating the ‘distance’ from the occurrence to the abstraction that introduced x. One might suppose that in any datatype for representing de Bruijn terms, the distance restriction on numbers would have to be maintained as an explicit datatype invariant. However, by using a nested (or non-regular) datatype, we can define a representation in which all terms are well-formed, so that the invariant is enforced automatically by the type system. Programming with nested types is only a little more difficult than programming with regular types, provided we stick to well-established structuring techniques. These involve expressing inductively defined functions in terms of an appropriate fold function for the type, and using fusion laws to establish their properties. In particular, the definition of lambda abstraction and beta reduction is particularly simple, and the proof of their associated properties is entirely mechanical.

Designing a data retrieval program for clinical investigation

We have found the IBM punch card system an inexpensive but valuable asset when applied to the problem of clinical data retrieval. We recommend its use to others who have, perhaps, been wary of becoming involved with what, to the uninitiated, may seem a gigantic and complex undertaking. Always keep clear the distinction between analytic studies and data retrieval. Treat the data retrieval card as a summation, ignoring sequence. Don't become chained to a computer. Above all, get involved with the mechanics, do your own sorting, learn for yourself what you can do with the cards. But regardless of what method is used to retrieve information, remember the dictum of Sherlock Holmes: “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.” A contemporary Watson had made it convenient to have data at our fingertips.

Socialism: An Examination of its Nature, its Strength, and its Weakness; with Suggestions for Social Reform

the doctrine set forth in that book, and in Mr. Hobson's treatment of the question in the present volume we have discerned, as we think, signs of some modification of his former opinions. But such would certainly be the popular inference drawn from the earlier book, although the opinion may perhaps be hazarded that the capital mistake of this, as of so many similar discussions, has consisted in what may, with an appearance of paradox but a basis of truth, be called the illogical process of carrying arguments to their ' logical' conclusion. We have endeavoured to follow Mr. Hobson's reasoning with careful attention, but we confess to a difficulty in grasping it fully. As it seems to us, he has shown that capital may be misdirected, and that the comparatively permanent form, which it takes in the shape of machinerv, may prevent the correction of original misdirection before a fresh misdirection has followed. He has, we think, demonstrated that saving may conceivably thus be fraught with repeated injury to the general public. But we may be pardoned for thinking that a large part of his quarrel with the older economists turns on the use of words: and it is. certainly our impression that an appendix, in which he criticises the views of more recent writers such as Mr. Bonamy Price and M. Yves Guyot, affords a new illustration of unfruitful logomachy. We also remain of the opinion that both he and the Austrian economists, of whom he approves, are in as much danger of going astray, and taking a onesided view of phenomena, by concentrating attention on consumption, as the older economists were in laying e,xcessive stress on production. It is so difficult, when we are regarding one side of phenomena, to remember that there is another side, and it is so hard to retain in our consciousness the fact that the processes of production and consumption are going on simultaneously, that, as in the larger questions of metaphysics, the observer of the search after unity is. often prompted to interpose with a bold assertion of a common-sense belief in duality. But to follow Mr. iobson at any detail into the intricacies of his argument would be to transgress the limits of this. review: and he will allow us to part from him with the observation that, while we are willing to go some distance in his company, we are not prepared to undertake the whole journey. L. L. PRICE