Capita GDP Growth Research Articles

The real Oaxaca decomposition: convergence within Mexico’s Oaxaca region in the twenty-first century—Do types of crime and religious belief matter?

The paper empirically examines municipality convergence within Mexico’s southern Oaxaca region. We find municipalities are converging more rapidly than the “iron law” of 2% with up to 8% β convergence. Though homicides from the Drug War have negatively impacted growth, overall crime perhaps through strengthening local institutions has a positive but weak impact. Higher income inequality and Catholic belief are associated with higher per capita GDP growth in Oaxaca overall and within two microregions. The positive impact of a higher share indigenous population on growth in the relatively urban Valles Centrales microregion suggests a cultural element to policy making with the dependency ratio drag on growth suggesting a need for policies that give more attention to how retirees can continue to participate in the economy as well.

Desigualdad y crecimiento económico: un análisis dinámico

This study explores the relationship between inequality and economic growth, using annual measurements of the Gini Index and per capita GDP growth rate for 38 countries during the period 1980 - 2010. The study introduces a cluster analysis based the concept of dynamical regimes and the introduction of symbolic sequences to segment the sample into homogeneous groups of countries with similar performance with respect to the variables under analysis. During the considered period, two groups of countries are obtained: a group of high inequality and medium-high economic growth, and a second group of low inequality and low growth. Additionally, considering the relationship between economic growth and income inequality in a panel data context, a model is specified for each group, showing that the relationship between the variables depends on the dynamics of the countries. In particular, the study shows that in countries with higher per capita income there is a positive relationship between inequality and economic growth, while for emerging economies the relationship depends on the considered model.

Напрями забезпечення стійкості економіки в умовах глобальної фінансової нестабільності

The financial instability of the world economic space and the accelerated changes in the structure of its socio-economic environment affect the development of national economies in conditions of shocks that cause economic losses, disrupt the parameters of the economic system and create the threat of financial and economic crises. In order to respond quickly to the emergence of shocks in the face of global financial instability, the article identifies key areas of resilience. On the example of anti-crisis policies of European countries such as Poland and Germany, it was determined that the key directions of ensuring the resilience of their economies were investment privileges and attractive credit conditions.Poland’s attractive investment climate has ensured a stable growth of its economy after the 2008-2009 crisis. The GDP per capita GDP growth rate in 2008-2017 was 37.48%.The introduction of an attractive lending system in Germany has ensured a rapid post-crisis economic recovery. The GDP per capita growth rate of Germany in 2008-2017 was 25.01%. For Ukraine, during the period of the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and the crisis that began in 2014, credit was used to support financial stability. Against the backdrop of falling foreign exchange reserves, devaluation of the national currency, Ukraine was motivated to cooperate with the IMF. For the period from 2008 to 2018, Ukraine was allocated under the IMF lending programs - $ 66 billion, but in fact, $ 27 billion was transferred due to Ukraine’s failure to fulfill its obligations. The GDP per capita growth rate of Ukraine in 2008-2017 was 3.12%. IMF financial assistance is one of the key areas for resilience of economy, as it involves systemic socio-economic reforms. Effective implementation of reforms will ensure economic growth and return investors’ interest in the Ukrainian economy.

Towards concentration and decentralization: The evolution of urban spatial structure of Chinese cities, 2001–2016

While China’s unprecedented urbanization process has caused substantial changes in urban spatial structure of its cities, relatively less is known about the nature and form of such changes. This paper provides a descriptive analysis of the evolution of urban spatial structure of 286 Chinese cities during the 2001–2016 period. Drawing upon the fine-grained LandScan population dataset and with the use of exploratory spatial data analysis techniques, we develop an approach to identifying population centers and measuring urban spatial structure from the dimensions of polycentricity and dispersion. Specifically, a city is considered more polycentric when it has a more balanced distribution of population between its main center and subcenter(s), while it is considered less dispersed when it has a higher share of population living in its urban centers. The empirical results which are robust based on different definitions of population centers show that urban spatial structure of Chinese cities has generally evolved towards concentration (i.e., less dispersed) and decentralization (i.e., more polycentric), with the former trend being relatively stronger than the latter one. Furthermore, we find that the evolution patterns differ across cities with different original types of urban spatial structure. Cities with relatively higher degrees of dispersion are more likely to change their urban spatial structure. Moreover, we find that cities which have changed their urban spatial structure tend to have higher population and per capita GDP growth than those that have not changed. Significant differences in population and economic productivity growth are also found to exist across cities with different evolution patterns of urban spatial structure.

International Development Agencies and Per Capital Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria

This study provides econometrics evidence on the role of international development agencies in boosting per capita gross domestic product in Nigeria. The agencies covered include the United States Agency for International Development, International Fund for Agriculture Development and Department for International Development. In addition to these agencies, official development assistance (ODA) from Development Assistance Committee (DAC) was introduced in the model as part of the exogenous variables. The data required were sourced from World Development Indicators and analyzed with a combination of cointegrating regression model and error correction mechanism (ECM). It was observed from the cointegration test results that the variables are cointegrated. The cointegrating regression estimates indicate that development assistance from Department for International Development has significant positive relationship with per capita GDP. 1 percent increase in development financing from DFID increases per capita GDP by 0.268 percent. On the contrary, funds from United Sates Agency for International Development impact negatively on per capita GDP in the long run. More so, the parsimonious ECM reveals that financial support from International Fund for Agriculture Development is positive linked to per capita GDP growth in the short run. The error correction estimate (-0.3617) suggests that short run deviations in the model are corrected at a speed of 36 percent. Based on the findings, it is recommended that policy makers should prioritize key sectors with high potentials of inclusive growth in the allocation of development assistance from international development agencies in order to ensure the participation of the population in the share of the growth process.

Clustering and regime dynamics for economic growth and income inequality

This study explores the dynamic relationship between income inequality and economic growth by using a non-parametric approach and numerical taxonomy as a research method based on data symbolization and clustering methods. The study uses annual data of the GINI index (considering two databases, i.e. the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID) and the Estimated Household Income Inequality Data Set (EHII)) and the Per Capita GDP Growth Rates (economic growth variable) for two samples, i.e. 38 countries between 1980 and 2015, and 23 countries during the period 1980–2010. This novel methodology is used to detect the existence of clusters of countries sharing similar economic performance that are characterized by the income inequality variable. Once the homogeneous clusters are fixed, using a dynamic econometric approach, we study the Granger causal relationship between economic growth and income inequality, and the positive or negative long-run effects. Our results show that in advanced economies there is an economic growth policy supporting income distribution, while in poor or developing economies economic growth is enhanced by income concentration.

DOES PUBLIC DEBT HAMPER ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM EUROPEAN TRANSITIONAL COUNTRIES

Lately, there has been an increased interest among policy makers and scholars regarding the nexus between public debt and economic growth, with emphasizes on its effects on transition economies, particularly after the last global financial crisis. This paper tries to investigate the impact of public debt on economic growth in the European transition economies, for the time spin 2000-2016, by using Pooled OLS, Fixed effects, Random effects and Hausman – Taylor Instrumental variable (IV). In addition, results reveal that public debt although has positive effect on per capita growth still is statistically insignificant, whereas debt square has negative effect on per capita GDP growth. Further, gross savings, final consumption and fixed capital formation have positive effect on per capita growth, while government expenditures do not show significant impact. Moreover, such results highlight important implications for fiscal policymakers in these countries in order to foster the economic growth in the context of public debt level.

EXPERIMENTING THE ENERGY ECONOMIC VARIABLES REGARDING THE LONG-HAUL CONSEQUENCES ON INDONESIA USING VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

The Indonesian economy has recorded solid growth in the course of recent decades, and as of late, the firm pace of economic expansion has been joined by decreased yield instability and moderately stable inflation. As a sort of rare characteristic capital, energy makes increasingly more clear imperative consequences for economic growth (EG). Furthermore, energy consumption (EC) is the real wellspring of greenhouse gas emissions. This achieves the issues of the connections among energy economic variables, which is deserving of long-haul consideration between human capital (HC), EC, CO2 emissions, and EG in Indonesia. As a close neighbour, Australia has long had critical exchange ties with Indonesia. The effect of various types of EC and HC on per capita GDP growth. The information utilized world development indicator has acquired from the World Bank database amid 1985- 2017. The examination technique utilized vector error correction model. In this mainly three tests are conducted in order to know the relationship among variables which is unit root test, co-integration and temporal Granger causality the outcomes show that apportioning consumption energy and controlling carbon emissions, are probably going to have no antagonistic impact on the genuine GDP per capita. In the meantime, empirically, the development of HC has the effect on controlling CO2 emissions and EC in Indonesia.

Research on disaster resilience of earthquake-stricken areas in Longmenshan fault zone based on GIS

ABSTRACTSince the Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred in Yingxiu, a town in Wenchuan County in Sichuan Province, on May 12, 2008, frequent geological disasters ensued on the land affected by earthquakes in the Longmenshan fault zone have caused a large number of casualties and property losses. Therefore, measuring the disaster resilience of earthquake-stricken areas is the priority for disaster prevention and mitigation science. Based on the in-depth analysis of the hazard of disaster resilience, this paper constructs the compatibility coefficient of industrial and employment structure and per capita GDP growth rate from the socio-economic perspective to measure the disaster resilience. Considering seismic intensity, this paper, with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology and the topographic complexity index described by the topographic information entropy method, analyses the temporal and spatial change rule of disaster resilience in the heavily damaged area. The results show that the impact of the “post-earthquake effect” on disaster resilience tends to decrease concussively over time, and the seismic intensity and topographic complexity are important internal factors that restrict the improvement in disaster resilience. This paper will provide a broader application scenario for the concept of resilience, especially in post-earthquake integrated risk management and reconstruction process.

New anthropometric evidence on living standards in nineteenth-century Chile

A sample of over 44 thousand Chilean marines was used to estimate the trend of mean heights from the 1820s to the 1890s. We confirm that there was height stagnation in the last decades of the nineteenth-century Chile despite sizeable per capita GDP growth; there were hidden nutritional costs to this economic growth. This situation resembles a similar puzzle in antebellum USA or early industrial Britain, but in the case of Chile GDP growth is not explained by industrialization but by export-led-growth. Still, the results are similar: height stagnation. Regarding the determinants of adult male height, our data also convincingly showed that there was a significant correlation between height and literacy. There was a positive correlation between height and white ethnicity, and, linked to this, a strong negative correlation between stature and eyes reported as “black”. Finally, living in urban environments (or environments with higher population density) also negatively affected height.

Does the “Belt and Road Initiative” Promote the Economic Growth of Participating Countries?

With the slowdown of global economic growth, how to stimulate economic growth has become a hot topic in recent years. The “Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative,” as a newly proposed global economic stimulus plan, has attracted widespread attention from scholars. In this study, the research used the propensity score matching difference in difference (PSM-DID) method to evaluate whether the “B&R” Initiative has promoted the economic growth of the countries along the route. Objectively assessing the effect of its implementation is not only important for its completion and improvement in the future but also to verify whether the “B&R” Initiative promotes economic growth in participating countries. A logistic regression is constructed using the statistical data obtained by the World Bank on 110 countries from 2011 to 2016. The results show that the “B&R” Initiative has effectively promoted the rapid growth of the GDP of participating countries but the improvement of per capita GDP growth is not significant. Through the analysis of the selected variables, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed. Moreover, objective proofs are provided to encourage all the countries in the world to participate in the “B&R” Initiative.

Study of the Relationship between Population and Economic Growth Based on Fixed Effects Model

Targeting population and economic growth, through literature research and empirical analysis, this paper establishes a panel fixed effects model applied to China’s provincial panel data over the period 2007 - 2016. Based on the model, the paper empirically analyses the specific effects relationship between the urbanization level as well as per capita GDP and population growth, and makes correlation test. The findings show there is a close relationship between population and economic growth.

Military Spending and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Wavelet Approach

ABSTRACT This paper employs a wavelet approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth and military spending in a time-frequency domain for the case of Turkey. Turkey presents an interesting case for analysis of military spending and economic growth, as its geopolitical position and history of insurgencies and separatist violence oblige the country to devote an unusually large share of the central government budget to national defence. Timescale regression analysis reveals that military expenditures have significant negative effects on growth in per capita GDP at business cycles of 16 years and longer. Timescale Granger causality analysis indicates that per capita GDP growth responds to movements in military expenditures at business cycles of eight years and above and that this result is very significant. Wavelet coherency analysis corroborates these findings, indicating a significant negative long-run co-movement at business cycles of 16 years and longer. Thus, the neoclassical prediction that military spending may promote growth does not hold in the case of Turkey, at least in the long run. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that, in the long run, military spending has been leading rather than lagging economic growth.

What determines the economic size of a nation in the world: Determinants of a nation’s share in world GDP vs. per capita GDP

This study examines the determinants of economic size of a nation measured as its share in world GDP, in comparison with the conventional determinants of per capita income growth. These two indicators are complementary. The former represents the economic size (power) of a nation, whereas the latter stands for people’s standard of living. This paper first proves that the determinants of these two different aspects of economic growth are different. It then goes on to verify the followings. First, the determinants of the GDP share of each nation are the variables that represent the share of each nation in the world, such as shares in world population, investment, human capital, exports, R&D investment, and financial capital flows. Second, currency undervaluation promotes per capita GDP growth via increasing exports, but tends to reduce a country’s share in world GDP because undervaluation depreciates its GDP at market exchange rate, whereas its indirect effect through export share changes is uncertain due to the zero sum nature of competitive undervaluation among nations. Third, trades are important in world GDP share determination as long as it is measured by share in world exports which represent economic rivalry among nations. The study conducts conventional country-panel econometric analyses after it proposes some theoretical basis for such empirics.

Survey on Influence of Maritime Port Cluster Effect on Offshore Reginal Economy Based on Grey Correlation Model

Chen, Y.-Y., 2019. Survey on influence of maritime port cluster effect on offshore reginal economy based on grey correlation model. In: Gong, D.; Zhu, H., and Liu, R. (eds.), Selected Topics in Coastal Research: Engineering, Industry, Economy, and Sustainable Development. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 94, pp. 707–711. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Along with further advancement of the integration of regional resources, industrial layout, and the reform on the industrial supply side, the maritime port cluster effect has played more and more distinct function in the economic development of offshore areas. Based on the grey correlation model, this paper describes the interaction between the maritime port cluster effect and the economic development in offshore areas. Here is an instance for testing the economic development level in the offshore areas. Several concrete conclusions come here: the formation of the maritime port cluster effect attributes to the combination of congenital geographical advantages and acquired conditions, it has a dynamic and multi-feedback relationship with the economic development in the offshore areas; per capita GDP and seaport cargo throughput can respond to the clustering development level at the maritime ports, that is, the higher the clustering development level, the greater the per capita GDP growth rate. In return, the offshore economy can provide a strong support for the development of maritime port clusters. The maritime port cluster effect and the economic development in the offshore areas are two-way interactive. This study traces the theory of the economic development in the offshore areas in concert with the port cluster effect profoundly and extensively.

Results from single-donor analyses of project aid success seem to generalize pretty well across donors

Much research on foreign aid presents claims that apply to aid in general but tests these claims using data from one or a small number of donors. This makes it difficult to know if we have learned something about aid, or merely something about one donor. For example, the literature on project aid success has found that per capita GDP growth rates or Freedom House scores in recipient countries correlate with project success. However, these claims have been tested against data from only multilateral donors and often against data from only the World Bank. I re-examine these analyses using a dataset of harmonized project outcome scores for seven diverse donors. Most donors seem to be similarly influenced by recipient-level and project-level factors, though a few notable exceptions exist. Analyses of project aid success that focus on single donors may be able to produce knowledge about aid in general.

Why So Serious about Foreign Capital?

This study examines the cost and benefits of capital inflow in emerging economies and delineates equity and debt to examine the nature and trends of capital inflows in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS), East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since their economic reforms. We adopt a two-step process to address endogeneity and to tease out the causal effect of capital flow on economic growth and vice versa. First, we run the panel Granger causality test to examine the precedence of causality between per capita GDP growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, portfolio inflows and the real effective exchange rate. We follow this test with a fixed-effect panel regression model to test for the magnitude of causality between the variables. The study finds the presence of a strong causality between FDI equity flows and a weak and lagged causality between short term capital flows and economic growth. In the short-run, there is bi-directional causality in growth and equity flows. In the longer run, the effects of equity fade away, but the effect of sustained debt kicks in. Among other results, an average currency appreciation for one-year causes equity inflow and causes GDP growth for two years.

PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS OF CHINESE MANUFACTURING FIRMS

China has experienced high-speed catch-up growth with an average annual rate of over 8% in per capita GDP in the past four decades. Using growth accounting, Zhu (Understanding China’s growth: Past, present, and future. Journal of Economics Perspectives, 26(4), 103–124) finds that the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) accounts for 77% of China’s per capita GDP growth during 1978–2007, and argues that China’s TFP growth is mainly driven by resource reallocation due to market liberalization and institutional reforms. This paper aims to estimate China’s aggregate productivity growth by applying three leading methods of estimating firm-level production function on Chinese manufacturing firms during 1998–2007, and quantify the contribution of resource reallocation to productivity growth. In addition, we also empirically compare the three estimation methods in this large data set.

THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF CHINA AND INDIA – A LONGTERM ANALYSIS

The purpose of the article is to determine the position of agriculture in the economy of India and China and verify the extent to which the downward trend in agriculture is noticeable in these countries over 25 years (1990-2015). Developing countries represent a significant group among all countries in the world. India and China are especially important in this context for they are the biggest world developing economies which have made huge progress in the field of social and economic transition since the beginning of the 90s. Based on collected material, models of regression were developed, showing dependencies between the dependent variable (GDP per capita) and significant independent variables, including the contribution of agriculture to GDP. It results, from the conducted analyses, that the greatest positive effect on GDP per capita is exerted by an influx and outflow of foreign direct investment and share of services in GDP. With progressing economic growth, a marked downward trend is also evident for the share of agriculture in the generation of GDP. Nevertheless, the rate and scale of this phenomenon varies greatly in the investigated countries. In the case of China, stable per capita GDP growth can be observed with around a 10% share of agriculture in GDP, while, in the case of India, a 20% share. This may mean that such a share of agriculture is already weakening GDP growth to a small extent, which is more dependent on this level than on other factors.

Exploration of Sustainable Urban Transportation Development in China through the Forecast of Private Vehicle Ownership

With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process, the urban transportation problem has become increasingly serious. The rapid expansion of private vehicle ownership, in particular, has become one of the barriers to the realization of sustainable urban transition. This paper applied the Gompertz model to analyze the non-linear relationship between private vehicle ownership and per capita GDP in China using provincial data. In addition, we forecasted private vehicle ownership for 31 Chinese provinces for the period of 2019–2030 and predicted the time to reach the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership of each province according to different scenarios. The main findings revealed that the number of private vehicles owned in China’s provinces was in line with “S”-shaped development and was currently in the process of accelerated growth. Under the scenario of an annual per capita GDP growth rate of 6%, China’s private vehicle ownership will reach 246 million, 375 million, and 475 million in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively. This indicates that China’s expansion of private vehicle ownership will generate significant challenges, such as on-road vehicle-related fossil fuel consumption, pollutant emissions, traffic congestion, and scrapped vehicle recycling. These issues will become increasingly prominent. In provinces such as Hubei, Hebei, Hunan, and other central provinces that have a 50–60% urbanization rate, the large potential for income promotion will significantly stimulate the increase in private vehicle ownership, and the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership in each province will be reached in 2032, 2037, and 2046 with annual per capita GDP growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 4%, respectively.