Capita GDP Growth Research Articles

Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?

Abstract Research often suggests that population ageing will be detrimental for the economy due to increased labour market exits and lost productivity, however the role of population health and disability at older ages is not well established. Identifying whether the health of older people affects economic outcomes is challenging due to methodological issues. Using country-level panel data, we estimate the relationship between the size of the older working age population (aged 55-69) and economic growth across 180 countries from 1990 to 2017. We run models using annual data and 5-year moving averages of real per capita GDP growth as dependent variables. This enables us to quantify the gains in real per capita GDP growth associated with a healthy older working-age population on a country-by-country basis. The initial models confirm an inverse-U or hump-shaped relationship between population age groups and economic growth. In the 5 year average GDP growth model, the coefficient for the inverse of YLDs among 55-69 year olds is positive and significant at p < 0.01. The interaction term is significant at p < 0.001 in the same model. Across all countries, a 5% improvement in YLDs is associated with at minimum 0.3% predicted additional annual real per capita GDP growth. While a larger share of the older working-age population at ages 55-69 has historically been associated with slower real per capita GDP growth, low levels of disability in this age group can reduce or even eliminate these adverse economic effects. We consistently find a significant positive interaction between disability and the share of the population at ages 55-69, suggesting that adverse economic effects are amenable to policy intervention.

Carbon Kuznets curve in China: Nighttime light analysis in prefecture-level cities

Analysing the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions may help China to determine how to reduce carbon emissions. This study examined 221 Chinese prefecture-level cities using data from 2003 to 2018 to investigate the possible inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, based on per capita nighttime light brightness. This revealed a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita nighttime and carbon emissions with a per capita GDP of 139.8 thousand Yuan corresponding to the turning point. For China to achieve its carbon emissions peak before 2030, the per capita GDP growth rate would need to be at least 6.6 %. Therefore, for help prefecture-level cities to achieve peak carbon, they must strive towards high-quality economic growth and accelerate transformation of economic growth modes to improve low-carbon pilot policies, and such projects should be implemented in more cities. Efforts to achieve peak should be accelerated first in eastern cities and later in western cities.

INTERCONNECTIONS AND INTERDEPENDENCIES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND SHADOW BANKING SECTOR IN DEVELOPING AND TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES

The research objective is defined as the identification and confirmation of empirical relationships between shadow banking activities and economic development in developing and transitional economies to establish a theoretical basis for minimizing potential risks associated with shadow banking. The methodological design is based on a quantitative approach, implemented through correlation-regression analysis and ARIMA forecasting methods. The research findings confirm Hypothesis 1: China’s shadow banking is closely interconnected with the country’s economic development. However, Hypothesis 2 (the reduction of shadow banking in China contributes to per capita GDP growth) is only supported for specific structural elements of shadow banking that contribute to economic overheating. In contrast, for other structural elements, such as entrusted loans, a strong direct correlation exists, promoting a positive impact of shadow banking on the country’s economic development. This highlights the need for a highly balanced state policy to minimize shadow banking risks. The research results can be valuable for professionals in public administration and academic researchers, particularly in terms of shaping future research directions.

European funds and the dynamics of economic growth among EU regions: A spatial modelling approach

Contemporary development policy concentrates predominantly on reducing noticeable economic differences in a spatial system, and an important role in this respect is played by EU Cohesion Policy. Owing to the considerable scale of financial exposure of Cohesion Policy, the assessment of effectiveness of the implemented measures and their greater reliance on evidence are of major significance. Despite numerous attempts to empirically verify the effects of EU funds spending, the problem remains unresolved, and the results of recent studies lead frequently to ambiguous conclusions. The article aims to verify the β-convergence process in EU regions in the years 2007–2015 allowing for the impact of the received EU funds and the spatial effects determining economic growth. In the research, use was made of a covergence approach consisting in the regression modelling of per capita GDP growth. Spatial econometrics methods were applied, by adding variables determining spatial interactions that can influence the economic growth rate to the specification of the estimated models. The estimated econometric models show that in the years 2007–2015 EU funds positively affected economic growth. At the same time, the process of reducing economic disparities between EU regions was observed. Moreover, the existence of spatial effects for a dependent variable was confirmed. The results also show that the value of the EU funds received in the surrounding area generally did not translate into the dynamics of growth in a given location. The research presented is one of the few in which spatial interaction was verified by using weights matrices based on contiguity, distance, flows and affiliation.

Measurement of health human capital and its economic effect in China

Improving individual health not only enhances labor productivity but also boosts the productivity of society as a whole. China’s economic development is in urgent need of transitioning from being driven by factors to being driven by innovation, which places higher demands on Health Human Capital (HHC). An evaluation system consisting of 18 indicators across four dimensions—basic health, preventive healthcare, medical resources, quality, and healthy environment—was used to calculate the HHC index of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2019 using the entropy method. Following that, this study assessed the influence of HHC on economic growth using endogenous growth theory and the Corgis production function. Firstly, we discovered that the level of home healthcare services in China is on a steady incline, with eastern China showing better results compared to western and northeastern regions. Secondly, enhancing HHC will lead to a rise in the local real per capita GDP and foster economic growth, although there may be regional disparities. Thirdly, provinces with a higher level of economic development exhibit a more significant promoting effect, with southern China showing a greater impact than northern China. China should continue to prioritize both efficiency and equity in the allocation of medical and health resources, while also working to reduce the disparities in HHC development among different regions.

Do foreign direct investment and foreign aid accelerate economic growth in developing countries?

PurposeThis paper aims to study the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and official development assistance (ODA) on the economic growth of developing countries. This paper classifies sample countries into two groups (low- and high-income developing countries) based on income level and investigates whether the two sources of foreign capital have different effects on the economic development of each subgroup of countries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analyze panel data on 93 countries from 1981 to 2020 using a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. The 2SLS method is used to overcome the endogeneity problem between economic growth and FDI. The sources of the data are World Bank and OECD.FindingsFirst, FDI inflows tend to accelerate per capita GDP growth in both total sample countries and within both groups of countries. Second, ODA has a significant impact on per capita GDP growth only for low-income developing countries. This result indicates that ODA seems to be particularly important for low-income developing countries.Practical implicationsThis paper suggests policy implications that low-income developing countries should create an environment for more ODA funds to flow into themselves with efforts such as improving the credibility and effectiveness of the government related to ODA programs. It also provides implications for donors of ODA to focus their ODA resources on low-income developing countries to more effectively achieve the goal of helping developing countries’ economic growth.Originality/valueThis paper investigates whether FDI and ODA have different effects on the economic development of low- and high-income developing countries. To the best of authors’ knowledge, this point is not addressed in existing studies.

Analyzing the Determinants of Economic Growth in Nepal

This research provides a detailed examination of Nepal's economic growth, emphasizing the transition from agricultural to non-agricultural businesses, the adoption of policies to boost capital formation, and the macroeconomic challenges encountered. It identifies critical variables like the currency rate and technical advancements. The study aims to investigate the relationship between rising per capita GDP and the variables that impact it to uncover useful information about the forces that drive economic progress. Infrastructure development, human capital investment, political stability, macroeconomic stability, trade and investment, agricultural productivity, industrial development, natural resource management, financial inclusion, technological advancements, institutional quality, and global economic conditions are all important factors influencing Nepal's economic development. Their interdependent links have a considerable impact on the nation's economic trajectory, necessitating regular monitoring and evaluation. To ensure long-term and equitable economic development, policymakers must develop effective policies that include these complexities. Conducting a rigorous empirical inquiry is critical for understanding Nepal's unique situation and delivering policy recommendations. This study used an ex post facto research methodology to investigate the relationship between per capita GDP growth and numerous contributing factors.

Arbeitsmotivation erhöhen – aber wie?

Abstract Without sufficient countermeasures, demographic trends point to a significant increase in the shortage of skilled workers and a noticeable decline in per capita GDP growth. Higher labour force participation offers great potential to counteract this. Improved job satisfaction and work motivation can help to increase the propensity to work. Studies prove that there is a lot of potential to strengthen job satisfaction and intrinsic motivation. This article sets out the main determinants and how employers, government institutions and other participants in the labour market can help to improve job satisfaction.

Empirical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution based on VAR model: A case study of Hubei Province China

In this paper, the industrial three wastes from 1992 to 2018 in Hubei Province were collected as environmental indicators, and the per capita GDP was used as economic indicators. The study of Kuznets curve showed that industrial wastewater gradually decreased with economic growth, showing an inverted N shape; Both industrial emissions and solid waste will increase with the growth of per capita GDP, industrial waste gas shows a linear relationship, and industrial solids show an inverted U relationship. Then through the VAR model research, it is found that the response of industrial “three wastes” to per capita GDP growth in Hubei Province is positive in the short term. The long-term response of economic development in Hubei province to industrial waste gas and industrial solid waste discharge is positive and decreasing, but the short-term response to industrial wastewater discharge is negative. The variance decomposition analysis reveals that the primary environmental determinants influencing the current economic growth trajectory of Hubei Province are industrial wastewater, industrial waste gas, and industrial solid waste. Fluctuations in economic growth within Hubei Province demonstrate a stronger correlation with variations in emissions of industrial wastewater and industrial solid waste, while exerting comparatively less influence on changes in emissions of industrial waste gas.

Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effect and Impact Transmission Mechanism of China’s Water Network by Constructing a Water Transfer Information Weight Matrix

In China, the water network project plays a pivotal role in optimizing water resources allocation, enhancing regional water resources carrying capacity, and bolstering high-quality economic development. This study is grounded in the spatial interconnection of water resources, serving as the foundation for constructing a spatial measurement model. Leveraging data from 558 panel samples encompassing 31 provinces (including municipalities and districts) in China between 2003 and 2020, this research unveils the inherent correlation between the establishment of the water network and economic as well as social development. The findings indicate the following: (1) Considering inputs, outputs, and nonconsensual outputs, regional disparities in the SBM (slacks-based measure) value of the water network exist, demonstrating an overall increasing trend annually. In 2020, the nationwide average benefit level of input–output in water network construction reached 0.603. (2) Moran’s I test, predicated on the weight matrix of spatial water transfer information, reveals a spatial positive autocorrelation. All tests pass the significance threshold of 5%, affirming the presence of spatial agglomeration due to project construction, operation, and the interconnectedness of water resources. (3) SDM (spatial Durbin model) regression analysis elucidates that per capita GDP, resource endowment, technological innovation level, consumption index, and average wage significantly influence the growth of water network efficiency. Specifically, per capita GDP and the consumption index exert negative influences. Moreover, aspects such as regional resource endowment, technological innovation level, industrial and agricultural water demand, average wage, and other spatial dependencies exhibit a notable positive spatial spillover effect. (4) The SDM model suggests that per capita GDP growth fails to yield a significant spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions. Instead, it highlights a substantial indirect effect and spatial dependence of government attention among regions. These analyses are instrumental in optimizing the water resources allocation network system and enhancing investment efficacy.

Dynamics of Economic Factors Influencing Human Development in ASEAN-7

Abstract
 This study analyzes the relationship between economic factors and human development in the seven ASEAN countries using the panel data regression approach and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The factors investigated include international trade (TRD), per capita GDP growth (GrGDPPC), inflation (INF), and economic freedom (EFI). Panel data covers seven ASEAN countries during the 2012–2020 time period. Based on the results of the panel data regression analysis, it was found that only the inflation variable did not have a significant effect on human development. Meanwhile, the results of the MRA analysis show that economic freedom acts as a quasi-moderation in the relationship between international trade and human development. Meanwhile, economic freedom also functions as an independent variable in influencing the growth of GDP per capita and inflation in human development. These findings provide a deeper understanding of the complexity of the interactions between economic factors shaping HDI achievement in ASEAN.
 Keywords: ASEAN, economic freedom, human development
 JEL: O15, F43, E31, I32

AIIB Investment and Economic Development of India: The Case of the Gujarat Road Project

The purpose of this study is to verify whether the transportation infrastructure investment carried out by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has promoted the economic development of its recipient countries. Since the establishment of the AIIB, its investments in infrastructure development, aimed at promoting economic growth in Asian developing countries, have garnered considerable attention. This study selects India, the largest recipient country of the AIIB, as the research object and chooses the Gujarat Road Project as the research case, since it is a completed infrastructure construction investment project in the transportation field. This paper provides an overview of the project’s operation and summarizes key factors in the project’s implementation. In the data analysis section, the per capita GDP is selected as the explained variable to measure economic development, and the LASSO regression method is used to select several variables that affect economic development. Moreover, the random forest model is used to obtain the causal relationship between road construction and the per capita GDP from 2001 to 2022. The results indicate that road construction in India has a significant positive effect on per capita GDP growth, the Gujarat Road Project supported by the AIIB also has a positive effect on per capita GDP growth, and this effect is stronger than that at the national level. The main contribution of this work is the validation of the investment strategy of the AIIB and the quantification of the economic contribution of AIIB investment projects to the local area.

Economic growth and the proliferation of ICT infrastructures: which causes the other?

This study explored the causal association between Information and Communications Technology (ICT) infrastructure development, measured by an ICT index, and the economic growth of 42 African economies between 2000 and 2019. Whether ICT development has contributed to real per capita GDP growth or ICT infrastructure expansion has just been a consequence of growth in real per capita GDP has been overlooked in prior studies concerning Africa. The econometric techniques used to analyse the data included robust second-generation tools to investigate cross-sectional dependence, slope homogeneity, and panel causality. The findings detected significant independence between the variables across countries, the slope was heterogeneous, and there was a long-run association between all of the economies in the sample. Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s panel causality analysis indicated a unidirectional causal association between per capita income and the ICT index. The results also demonstrated that capital and employment were the leading causes of per capita GDP growth. The findings suggested that accelerating economic growth in developing economies was essential to promoting ICT investment.

Африка южнее Сахары: тренды, пропорции и факторы развития

The author’s calculations and models show that although the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) suffered greatly as a result of the plunder of their human and natural resources by the countries of the West during the period of colonial oppression and the centuries-old era of the slave trade, they have managed – after they gained political independence – to achieve on the whole a number of positive socio-economic results. The gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP has doubled, the average number of years of education of the adult population has increased six times, the average life expectancy at birth has augmented by one and a half times, and the human development index has risen by 2.5 times. However, since SSA countries are growing on average slowly and unsteadily, the gap between SSA and the advanced economies as well as many Asian developing countries (ADCs) by levels of development has enlarged significantly, and the total number of poor people in SSA has more than tripled over the past forty years, reaching 1 billion people. Besides the demographic dividend coefficient that is almost twice as low as in ADCs, the low dynamics of per capita GDP growth in SSA, according to our model, is associated by 1/3, 1/4 and 1/10, respectively, with the low rate of GFCF, low growth rates of exports (mainly raw materials), low level of social institutions. Since the assistance of the countries of the West is small and decreasing, and the capacity of markets in SSA countries is low, in order to avoid worsening the situation, they need to (a) increase the share of investments in physical and human capital in GDP at least one and a half times (including by reducing unproductive use of resources), (b) more actively develop intra-African cooperation and foreign economic relations with other developing countries and the Russian Federation, (c) rely on export-oriented industrialization (as SSA lags the most – 3–4 times – behind ADCs in terms of output growth rates of manufacturing industry).

Socioeconomic Development in Bangladesh: Issues and Challenges

Although Bangladesh was termed as the ‘test case’ or ‘international basket case’ due to its miserably low levels of socioeconomic development indicators during the post-independence period after 1971, at its golden jubilee in 2021, Bangladesh has proved such doubts mostly incorrect due to its major successes in economic indicators such as per capita income, remittance, export earnings, foreign exchange reserve, agricultural production, and inflation control since the 1990s. The resultant outcome of economic development has been reflected in social development indicators of the health and education domains such as fertility, mortality (i.e., neonatal, infant, child and maternal mortality), life expectancy at birth, gender parity index, youth literacy, female to male ratio at primary, secondary and tertiary education and student-teacher ratio among others. Despite such achievements in socio-economic development indicators, the article draws attention to the fact that the reduction in inequality in social and economic dimensions measured in terms of health, education, women empowerment, ownership of land, income, and societal opportunities carry onto pose daunting obstacles for Bangladesh—notably the high level of rich-poor and urban–rural disparities. Therefore, the Bangladesh government would require an inclusive action plan and effective implementation of those plans to sustain per capita GDP growth, empower marginalized segments of the population, ensure equity and equality and reduce inequalities in social and economic development indicators. Keywords: Social Development, Economic Development, Socioeconomic Development, Health Development, Education Development, Bangladesh

Urbanization, Energy Consumption and Environmental Quality in Asian Countries

The rate of urbanization has enhanced around the globe. By moving the production from less to more energy-intensive sources, increasing the rate of urbanization leads to more energy consumption. The major threat to the environment of the world is the increasing rate of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The main purpose of this study is to elaborate on the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emission in Asian countries. In this study, CO2 is used as a dependent variable while urban population, population density, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, GDP per capita growth, the square of GDP per capita growth, and trade are used as the independent variables. We have obtained data from 1980 to 2020 from 32 Asian countries. Data have been taken from the sources of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and World Development Indicators (WDI). We have used the panel ARDL technique for the long-run and short-run estimation of variables. The findings of this study reveal that non-renewable energy has a positive but insignificant whereas per capita GDP growth, urban population, population density, and trade have a positive effect; and per capita square of GDP growth and renewable energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on CO2 emission. The findings of Granger causality show that there is uni-variate causality running from non-renewable energy consumption towards CO2 emission and from urban population to renewable energy. There is bi-variate causality running from renewable energy to CO2, non-renewable to renewable energy consumption, and from urban population to non-renewable energy consumption. There is no causality exists between the urban population and CO2 emission. This study suggests that the Government may adopt more energy conservation policies to reduce CO2 emissions. The government may suggest using the public transportation system rather than the private transportation system to mitigate CO2 emissions.

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative: The case of Pakistan

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Pakistan using the synthetic control method. Based on the panel data of 42 non-BRI countries, we construct a synthetic Pakistan to estimate the economic growth trend of the country without the BRI. By comparing the actual economy with the synthetic case, our results show that the BRI increases the annual per capita GDP growth rate of Pakistan from 3.04% to 4.69% for the period 2013–2018. Pakistan’s per capita GDP in 2018 would have been Int$5,022 instead of Int$5,567 if the BRI had not existed. The outcomes of the in-time placebo test, in-place placebo test, and dropping sample test all confirm the robust impact of the BRI on Pakistan.

Optimal threshold taxation: An empirical investigation for developing economies

In this study, we empirically assess both linear and nonlinear relationships between the total tax burden and various tax items with real per capita GDP growth rates for 41 developing countries between 1990 and 2019. We use panel data techniques to evaluate the impact of taxation, as a percentage of GDP, on economic growth in both the short and long run perspectives, and to identify threshold values for different types of taxes. In addition to contributing to previous evidence on the linear effects, our results support the existence of nonlinearities and motivate policies aimed at raising certain tax revenues without hindering economic growth.

Do Economic Factors Dominate Happiness: A Comparison of Western and Eastern Cultures

<p>This article explores the factors influencing happiness levels and compares them within the contexts of Western and Eastern cultures. It particularly examines the role of income in shaping happiness, with a focus on Western cultures, often associated with materialism, and Eastern cultures, frequently linked to spirituality. The analysis reveals four significant determinants of happiness: economic achievement, social support, health, and the freedom to make choices. While income, measured by per capita GDP growth, contributes to happiness, globally, freedom of choice and social support exert a more substantial influence. This holds true when comparing Europe and North America to Asia (excluding the Middle East) and when contrasting Western and Eastern cultures. The study underscores the significance of social and political factors in achieving happiness, emphasizing the need for prioritizing their development. Furthermore, it challenges the notion that Western cultures are solely materialistic and Eastern cultures entirely spiritual, highlighting the intricacies of cultural differences. In sum, these findings emphasize the need for more comprehensive and diverse research to understand variations within specific cultural and ethnic contexts.</p>

Nexuses between carbon emissions, trade openness, transport services, globalization index, and growth in China: targeting the sustainable development goals.

Since the end of the twentieth century, the world has observed a considerable upsurge in carbon emissions as several countries have surfaced as industrial centers and production monsters worldwide. The present study contributes to the existing literature examining the effects of carbon-based emissions, industrial value added, trade openness, transport services, railway lines, and globalization index on per capita GDP growth in China. The study covers a period of 40 years, from 1982 to 2021, introducing the impact of railway transport on GDP growth in contemporary environmental empirics. A vector error correction model (VECM) was applied to achieve the study's envisaged objectives. The findings of this study reveal that carbon emissions are responsible for the reduction of per capita GDP growth in China. On the contrary, industrial value added, transport services, railway lines, and globalization index positively support the per capita GDP growth-dependent variable. The study proposes that pragmatic policies are needed to control pollution resulting from carbon emissions. The eventual effect of maintaining greenhouse gases is expected to assist in achieving sustainable growth of per capita GDP leading to the accomplishment of sustainable development goals in the economy.