Capita Energy Use Research Articles

Energy and Economic Growth: The Stylized Facts

We summarize what we know about energy and economic growth in a set of stylized facts. We combine analysis of a panel data set of 99 countries from 1971 to 2010 with analysis of some longer run historical data. Our key result is that over the last 40 years there has been a stable cross-sectional relationship between per capita energy use and income per capita with an elasticity of energy use with respect to income of less than unity. This implies that energy intensity has tended to decrease in countries that have become richer but not in others. We also find that over the last two centuries there has been convergence in energy intensity towards the current distribution, per capita energy use has tended to rise, energy quality to increase, and, though evidence is limited, the cost share of energy has declined.

Global Energy Use: Decoupling or Convergence?

We examine the key factors driving change in energy use globally over the past four decades. Our econometric approach is robust to the presence of unit roots, unobserved time effects, and spatial effects. We test for both strong decoupling where economic growth has less effect on energy use as income increases, and weak decoupling where energy use declines over time in richer countries, ceteris paribus. Our key findings are that the growth of per capita energy use has been primarily driven by economic growth, convergence in energy intensity and weak decoupling. There is no sign of strong decoupling.

CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade: A South African perspective

The effect of trade liberalisation on environmental conditions has yielded significant debate in the energy economics literature. Although research on the relationship between energy consumption, emissions and economic growth is not new in South Africa, no study specifically addresses the role that South Africa's foreign trade plays in this context. A surprising fact given trade is one of the most important factors that can explain the environmental Kuznets curve. This study employs recent South African trade and energy data and modern econometric techniques to investigate this. The main finding of interest in this paper is the existence of a long run relationship between environmental quality, levels of per capita energy use and foreign trade in South Africa. As anticipated per capita energy use has a significant long run effect in raising the country's CO2 emission levels, yet surprisingly higher levels of trade for the country act to reduce these emissions. Granger causality tests confirm the existence of a positive bidirectional relationship between per capita energy use and CO2 emissions. Whilst the study also finds positive bidirectional causality between trade and income per capita and between trade and per capita energy use, it appears however that trade liberalisation in South Africa has not contributed to a long run growth in pollution-intensive activities nor higher emission levels.

Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks

This study revisits the cointegrating relationship between carbon emission, energy use, economic activity and trade openness for India using threshold cointegration tests with a view to testing the environmental Kuznet’s curve hypothesis in the presence of possible regime shift in long run relationship of the variables for the period 1971 to 2008. The article confirms the existence of ‘regime-shift’ or ‘threshold’ cointegration among the variables and environmental Kuznet’s curve for India. It challenges previous empirical works for India which fail to establish cointegrating relationship among these variables and explains its logical and econometric reasons. The study finds that the carbon emission is highly elastic with respect to real per capita income and energy use in India. This finding is critical and warns successful design and execution of energy and environmental policy framework which would pave the low carbon sustainable growth path inIndia.

Improving the temporal and spatial distribution of CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel emission data sets

Through an analysis of multiple global fossil fuel CO2 emission data sets, Vulcan emission data for the United States, Canada's National Inventory Report, and NO2 variability based on satellite observations, we derive scale factors that can be applied to global emission data sets to represent weekly and diurnal CO2 emission variability. This is important for inverse modeling and data assimilation of CO2, which use in situ or satellite measurements subject to variability on these time scales. Model simulations applying the weekly and diurnal scaling show that, although the impacts are minor far away from sources, surface atmospheric CO2 is perturbed by up to 1.5−8 ppm and column‐averaged CO2 is perturbed by 0.1−0.5 ppm over some major cities, suggesting the magnitude of model biases for urban areas when these modes of temporal variability are not represented. In addition, we also derive scale factors to account for the large per capita differences in CO2 emissions between Canadian provinces that arise from differences in per capita energy use and the proportion of energy generated by methods that do not emit CO2, which are not accounted for in population‐based global emission data sets. The resulting products of these analyses are global 0.25° × 0.25° gridded scale factor maps that can be applied to global fossil fuel CO2 emission data sets to represent weekly and diurnal variability and 1° × 1° scale factor maps to redistribute spatially emissions from two common global data sets to account for differences in per capita emissions within Canada.

Is there a 1970s Syndrome? Analyzing Structural Breaks in the Metabolism of Industrial Economies

In this paper we focus on long-term socio-ecological transitions from the agrarian to the industrial metabolic regime. Statistical analysis is used to identify structural breaks in the development of energy use in the second half of the 20th century. A stabilization of per capita energy and resource use in most high-income countries was reached in the early 1970ies, after a period of accelerated growth of resource use since the end of World War II. Most empirical turns in trend coincide with the oil price crises of 1973 and 1979. This stabilization could offer lessons for a future sustainability transition.

The energy–GDP nexus; addressing an old question with new methods

This paper reassesses the causal relationship between per capita energy use and gross domestic product, while controlling for capital and labour (productivity) inputs in a panel of 30 OECD countries over the past 40years. The paper uses panel unit root and cointegration testing and specifies an appropriate vector error correction model to analyse the nexus between income and energy use. In doing so we contribute to an old debate using modern tools that shed a new light. There is some evidence that over the very short-run bidirectional causality exists. Our results also show a strong unidirectional causality running from capital formation and GDP to energy usage. In the long run the reverse causality, found in recent work, is lost. We then show that we can reproduce these earlier results in our data if we reproduce a slightly misspecified model for the Engle–Granger two-step procedure used in these earlier papers. Our findings thus imply that results are very sensitive to model misspecification and careful testing of specifications is required. Our results have some strong policy implications. They suggest that policies aimed at reducing energy usage or promoting energy efficiency are not likely to have a detrimental effect on economic growth, except over the very short run.

Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries

Unlike previous studies which mainly focus on the integration properties of energy consumption and production, this study examines the convergence of per capita energy use among 25 OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2010. In particular, newly developed LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with allowance for two endogenously determined structural breaks are employed. The results indicate significant support for per capita energy use convergence among OECD countries.

A brief history and the possible future of urban energy systems

Modern cities depend on energy systems to deliver a range of services such as heating, cooling, lighting, mobility, communications, and so on. This article examines how these urban energy systems came to be, tracing the major transitions from the earliest settlements through to today's fossil-fuelled cities. The underlying theme is “increasing efficiency under constraints” with each transition marked by increasing energy efficiency in service provision, increasing per capita energy use, increasing complexity in the energy system's structure, with innovations driven by a strategic view of the overall system, and accompanied by wider changes in technology and society. In developed countries, the future of urban energy systems is likely to continue many of these trends, with increased efficiency being driven by the constraints of climate change and rising fuel prices. Both supply and demand side technologies are discussed as potential solutions to these issues, with different impacts on the urban environment and its citizens. However in developing countries, rising urban populations and access to basic energy services will drive the next transition.

The Metabolic Transition in Japan

Summary The notion of a (socio-) metabolic transition has been used todescribe fundamental changes in socioeconomic energy andmaterial use during industrialization. During the last century,Japandevelopedfromalargelyagrarianeconomytooneoftheworld’s leading industrial nations. It is one of the few industrialcountries that has experienced prolonged dematerializationand recently has adopted a rigorous resource policy. This arti-cle investigates changes in Japan’s metabolism during industri-alization on the basis of a material flow account for the periodfrom 1878 to 2005. It presents annual data for material ex-traction, trade, and domestic consumption by major materialgroup and explores the relations among population growth,economic development, and material (and energy) use. Dur-ing the observed period, the size of Japan’s metabolism grewby a factor of 40, and the share of mineral and fossil materialsin domestic material consumption (DMC) grew to more than90%. Much of the growth in the Japanese metabolism wasbased on imported materials and occurred in only 20 yearsafter World War II (WWII), when Japan rapidly built up largestocks of built infrastructure, developed heavy industry, andadopted patterns of mass production and consumption. Thesurge in material use came to an abrupt halt with the firstoil crisis, however. Material use stabilized, and the economyeventually began to dematerialize. Although gross domesticproduct (GDP) grew much faster than material use, improve-mentsinmaterialintensityarearelativelyrecentphenomenon.Japanemergesasarolemodelforthemetabolictransitionbutis also exceptional in many ways.www.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jie

A preliminary assessment of socio-ecological metabolism for three neighborhoods within a rust belt urban ecosystem

Rust belt cities of the northeastern United States are plagued by flat or declining economies and the accompanying social fallout from lack of employment. Advocates of green fuels, green infrastructure and green jobs have proposed these nature-based technologies as means to revitalize the economies of cities. Before making public and private investment a baseline analysis of the relative magnitude of existing energy production and energy respiration at the neighborhood scale is useful in order to understand what the potential for green infrastructure might be. Because the urban canopy and other green infrastructure can enhance urban socio-ecological metabolism, we measured the flows of natural energy produced (P) by the urban forest versus the industrial or fossil energy currently consumed or respired (R) in three economically and demographically distinct neighborhoods of a typical rust-belt city, Syracuse, NY. Our objectives were to (1) understand the potential for green energy to replace fossil fuels in general, (2) assess the degree to which different socio-demographic communities are receiving the ecosystem benefits of existing urban “green” infrastructure (i.e. forest primary production), and (3) identify where local (in-city) biotic energy resources could be enhanced or fossil fuel consumption altered to improve overall urban socio-ecological metabolism. We found that (1) the fossil energy consumed in all three neighborhoods was 200–700 times higher than the biotic “green” energy produced; (2) that to produce this much energy from willow biomass grown in the region would require at least between 0.3 and 0.7 ha of bio-energy production per person depending on affluence, density of living, transportation mix and home fuel mix; (3) that although the more affluent neighborhood used, per residence and per person, almost twice as much energy as that of the downtown more densely settled and poorer neighborhood, its R:P ratio was still the lowest due to the high primary productivity of its neighborhood tree canopy. As a first assessment our findings identify several opportunities for enhancement of the socio-ecological metabolism of these neighborhoods, and the city at large, through conversion of heating units in poorer neighborhoods away from expensive electricity, and toward tree planting, solar installations, and per capita energy use reductions.

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity – around 1.5 – for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country.

Industrial energy use and the human life history

The demographic rates of most organisms are supported by the consumption of food energy, which is used to produce new biomass and fuel physiological processes. Unlike other species, modern humans use ‘extra-metabolic' energy sources acquired independent of physiology, which also influence demographics. We ask whether the amount of extra-metabolic energy added to the energy budget affects demographic and life history traits in a predictable way. Currently it is not known how human demographics respond to energy use, and we characterize this response using an allometric approach. All of the human life history traits we examine are significant functions of per capita energy use across industrialized populations. We find a continuum of traits from those that respond strongly to the amount of extra-metabolic energy used, to those that respond with shallow slopes. We also show that the differences in plasticity across traits can drive the net reproductive rate to below-replacement levels.

Energetic Limits to Economic Growth

The human population and economy have grown exponentially and now have impacts on climate, ecosystem processes, and biodiversity far exceeding those of any other species. Like all organisms, humans are subject to natural laws and are limited by energy and other resources. In this article, we use a macro ecological approach to integrate perspectives of physics, ecology, and economics with an analysis of extensive global data to show how energy imposes fundamental constraints on economic growth and development. We demonstrate a positive scaling relationship between per capita energy use and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) both across nations and within nations over time. Other indicators of socioeconomic status and ecological impactare correlated with energy use and GDP. We estimate global energy consumption for alternative future scenarios of population growth and standards of living. Large amounts of energy will be required to fuel economic growth, increase standards of living, and lift developing...

Effects of Agriculture on Climate Change: A Cross Country Study of Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions

Agriculture affects atmosphere by releasing green house gases and get affected in turn, from climate change. This paper reviews the literature on both the aspects and test empirically that what affects emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Data on carbon emissions, energy consumption and agriculture related national level variables are obtained for 120 countries from the World Bank's Green Data Book. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that agricultural land, irrigation, forest area, biomass energy, and energy use efficiency negatively affect the Carbon dioxide emission. But, fertilizer use and per capita energy use affect it positively. The analysis confirms that the people in rich countries are more responsible for carbon emission than the people in poor countries. It recommends for cross subsidization for low external input agriculture, particularly for organic farming in poor countries.Key words : Agriculture; Carbon emissions; Climate change; Energy consumption; GHGsThe Journal of Agriculture and Environment Vol:10, Jun.2009 Page: 84-102

Teaching and Learning Guide for: Environmental Economic Geography

environment. Likewise,modern (post-1960) economic geography largely sub-disciplined itself around aninterest in employment (e.g. industrial geography) or in nature (e.g. environmentalgeography). Fortunately, the nature of the debate is changing rapidly andpolitical, business and environmental leaders have recognized that economicdevelopment and environmental sustainability, the two central challenges facingthe world in the twenty-first century, depend on each other as potentially mutuallycompatible imperatives. Recognition that economic evolution is driven byinnovations of all kinds that restructure relations between economy and environmentsupports this view. If these restructurings have been overwhelmingly negative forthe environment in the past, a re-calibration of institutional and technologicalinnovation towards a Green Paradigm that seeks to realize positive sum relationshipsbetween economy and environment is feasible. Moreover, a Green Paradigm needsto be both global in scope and sensitive to geographically uniqueness. Economy–environment relationships are distinctive in particular places and connected acrossspace; climate warming, for example, is a global phenomenon in which processesand outcomes are locally varied. The vital role for environmental economicgeography is to assess how place and space influence economy–environmentrelations that are site-specific, globally interdependent and multi-scalar, and toprescribe (local–global) relations that will realize economic and environmentalvalues. Normatively, with respect to the achievement of economic and environ-mental values: How should innovation systems be organized globally and locally?What is the proper distribution of economic activities? How should cities andresource peripheries be remapped? How should value chains that directly andindirectly link multi-faceted (resource, manufacturing and service activities)activities in the supply of goods and services for consumers best be organizedlocally and globally? These are some of the fascinating questions facing environmentaleconomic geography.

Impact of Urban Form on Energy Use in Water Distribution Systems

The paper explores the connection between the urban form of water distribution networks and their energy use. Urban form corresponds to the network pipe configuration and the spatial distribution of water users. An analytical model is developed to quantify the energy use to fabricate pipes, to repair pipes, to pump water, and to dispose of pipes in a trunk line. Results show that only a 10% reduction in annual per capita energy is achieved in the trunk line by increasing population density from 10 ca∕ha to 275 ca∕ha . The analysis is extended by computing energy use in networks with gridiron, radial, and satellite pipe configurations and uniform, monocentric, and polycentric population distributions. On average, the radial/monocentric combination exhibits the lowest annual per capita energy use. The paper is concluded by discussing changes to the form of cities and water main infrastructure to reduce environmental impact.

The Global Sociometabolic Transition

SummaryWe present the concept of sociometabolic regimes and use it to analyze patterns of change in global social metabolism. Sociometabolic regimes represent dynamic equilibria of society–nature interactions and are characterized by typical patterns of material and energy flows (metabolic profiles). From this perspective, industrialization appears as a process of transition from the agrarian to the industrial regime. This article presents a global data set on the socioeconomic metabolism of 175 nations for the year 2000. We group the countries into six clusters differentiated by economic development and population density, reflecting the historical path of (agrarian) development and resource endowment.Our analysis reveals that per capita material and energy use in industrialized clusters is higher than in developing regions by a factor of 5 to 10. However, per capita use of natural resources differs significantly among industrialized clusters. A large fraction of the global population displays a metabolic profile somewhere in between the patterns typical for the agrarian and the industrial regimes. The sociometabolic transition from an agrarian to an industrial regime is thus an ongoing process with important consequences for future global material and energy demand. If we take a transition between regimes and the current characteristics of this transition as given, the global energy and materials demand is likely to grow by a factor of 2 to 3 during the coming decades. The most critical part of our findings relates to the cluster of high‐density developing countries, as these countries already have a higher anthropogenic material and energy burden per unit of land area than, for example, industrial Europe, with pending further increases bound to surpass carrying capacities.

The water footprint of energy from biomass: A quantitative assessment and consequences of an increasing share of bio-energy in energy supply

This paper assesses the water footprint (WF) of different primary energy carriers derived from biomass expressed as the amount of water consumed to produce a unit of energy (m3/GJ). The paper observes large differences among the WFs for specific types of primary bio-energy carriers. The WF depends on crop type, agricultural production system and climate. The WF of average bio-energy carriers grown in the Netherlands is 24 m3/GJ, in the US 58 m3/GJ, in Brazil 61 m3/GJ, and in Zimbabwe 143 m3/GJ. The WF of bio-energy is much larger than the WF of fossil energy. For the fossil energy carriers, the WF increases in the following order: uranium (0.1 m3/GJ), natural gas (0.1 m3/GJ), coal (0.2 m3/GJ), and finally crude oil (1.1 m3/GJ). Renewable energy carriers show large differences in their WF. The WF for wind energy is negligible, for solar thermal energy 0.3 m3/GJ, but for hydropower 22 m3/GJ. Based on the average per capita energy use in western societies (100 GJ/capita/year), a mix from coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium requires about 35 m3/capita/year. If the same amount of energy is generated through the growth of biomass in a high productive agricultural system, as applied in the Netherlands, the WF is 2420 m3. The WF of biomass is 70 to 400 times larger than the WF of the other primary energy carriers (excluding hydropower). The trend towards larger energy use in combination with an increasing contribution of energy from biomass will enlarge the need for fresh water. This causes competition with other claims, such as water for food.

Non parametric study of the relationship between energy consumption, income and temperature

The main goal of this paper is to measure the efficiency in converting energy use in people’s earnings for some Rio de Janeiro municipalities, Brazil. We used CCR and BCC classical Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models, with one input (per capita energy use) and two outputs (average temperature and average monthly earnings). The results indicate that municipalities with higher GDP values have lower efficiency. When discussing the results, we present possible reasons for this fact.