Capita CO2 Research Articles

China's Financial Contribution to International Environmental Cooperation and Preliminary Design of Future Environmental Financial Governance

China has always been making contributions and sharing experiences, within its capacity, to promote international environmental cooperation, however, being questioned for its role as a recipient country by the rest of the world has caused huge obstacles in the way of international cooperation. This paper will test out China's historical financial contribution to main multilateral cooperation platforms and will eliminate the misunderstanding about China's role in international environmental and climate change cooperation in recent years through comparing with cases of other countries. Also, Principal Component Analysis is conducted using the UN Millennium Development Goals as evaluation criteria to assess sample countries' comprehensive development level. Based on this analysis, combining the result with historical per capita CO 2 emission level of these countries, with the aid of K-means clustering, this paper sorts these sample countries into groups, with a view to designing a preliminary environmental financial governance mechanism for international cooperation under the principal of "common but differentiated responsibility", providing reference for finance-related negotiations and consultations under Durban Platform of UNFCCC which is working on boosting a new protocol and legislations. These legal documents will be completed by 2015 and will come into effect in 2020.

The relationship among CO2 emissions, electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries

This paper proposes a panel vector error correction model investigation of a quadratic relationship linking CO2 emissions, GDP levels and electric power consumption. We find that two independent long-run relationships emerge from the data. Since the null of homogeneity across units with regard to long-run elasticities is strongly rejected, we proceed by clustering countries according to the signs of the estimated coefficients. The approach allows us to form three groups: in the first there is evidence of an optimistic scenario, where both CO2 emissions and electric power consumption are bound to decrease in the long-run. An optimistic scenario for emissions reduction is also provided in the second cluster where, however, the long-run relationship between income and electric power consumption shows an U-shaped pattern, instead. Finally, the third cluster can be associated with a much worrying scenario where per capita CO2 is expected to grow with income. A joint consideration of long-run parameters and causality links allows us to propose cluster-tailored policy suggestions.

A Dynamic Analysis of CO2 Emissions and the GDP Relationship: Empirical Evidence from High-income OECD Countries

A positive relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) is shown in this article; examining the per capita income and CO2 emissions of 20 high-income countries for 1961–2004. It also appears that there is a positive relation from GDP to CO2 except for Norway. While we found the coefficients for individual countries to be from 0.27–1.73, the panel varies from 0.70–1.03 in terms of time dummies effect. On the other hand, when we examine dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimates, the results are in the line with fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimates. The panel FMOLS test results in average illustrate that a 1% increases in GDP causes a 0.86% rise in CO2 emission whereas a 1.07% increase is found from DOLS.

Carbon emissions by rural energy in China

Carbon emissions due to rural energy consumption in China have not yet been sufficiently addressed or quantified. In this work systematic accounting with a life cycle perspective was used to estimate both the direct CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and the indirect emissions from the production and provision of rural energy carriers. The results indicate that the total direct CO2 emissions resulting from rural energy consumption have nearly tripled, from 0.79 billion metric tons (hereafter ton) in 1979 to 1.98 billion tons in 2008, whilst indirect emissions have nearly quadrupled, from 0.27 billion tons to 0.85 billion tons for the same period. This finding quantitatively illustrates the importance of rural energy consumption as a contributor to China's overall carbon emission. In addition, the analysis of per capita emission from rural energy revealed significant regional disparities and similarities in emission and energy sources used. Both total and per capita CO2 are significantly higher in the North China, which is largely due to the colder climate and the relatively high economic development levels for multi-demands of energy utilisation. The analysis and results presented here provide substantial information for policy makers in relation to energy and emission targets in China.

Further evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain

Using a long span of data in Spain, Esteve and Tamarit (2012b) reported evidence of a strong link between per capita income and per capita CO2. In this paper we extend their work, finding evidence of both non-linear cointegration and asymmetric adjustment using a novel approach due to Sephton (1994) and Sephton and Mann (2012). The results suggest that there is a long-run non-linear attractor drawing per capita income and CO2 levels together, with asymmetric adjustment.

Analysis of Impact Factors of China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions

This paper estimates the quantity of CO2 emissions in 30 provinces of China covering the year from 1999 to 2010, combining static and dynamic panel data model.Meanwhile, we use instruments to control the endogeny of the two models, analyzing the impact factors of China's CO2 emissions comprehensively and objectively. The result shows that a inverted U-shaped relationship is found between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions per capita .And it means that the Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis is verified in China.And energy consumption structure, industrial structure and urbanization have a positive impact on China's CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions of last period have a crucial impact on the emissions of current period.

Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between CO2 and income: The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain, 1857–2007

In this paper we model the long-run relationship between per capita CO2 and per capita income for the Spanish economy over the period 1857–2007. According to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (ECK) the relationship between the two variables has an inverted-U shape. However, previous studies for the Spanish economy only considered the existence of linear relationships. Such an approach may lack flexibility to detect the true shape of the relationship. Our empirical methodology accounts for a possible non-linear relationship through the use of threshold cointegration techniques. Our results confirm the non-linearity of the link between the two above-mentioned variables pointing to the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve for the Spanish case.

Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis

This paper investigates the driving forces, emission trends and reduction potential of China's carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions based on a provincial panel data set covering the years 1995 to 2009. A series of static and dynamic panel data models are estimated, and then an optimal forecasting model selected by out-of-sample criteria is used to forecast the emission trend and reduction potential up to 2020. The estimation results show that economic development, technology progress and industry structure are the most important factors affecting China's CO 2 emissions, while the impacts of energy consumption structure, trade openness and urbanization level are negligible. The inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO 2 emissions and economic development level is not strongly supported by the estimation results. The impact of capital adjustment speed is significant. Scenario simulations further show that per capita and aggregate CO 2 emissions of China will increase continuously up to 2020 under any of the three scenarios developed in this study, but the reduction potential is large. ► We construct a provincial panel of China’s CO 2 emissions covering the year 1995–2009. ► We investigate driving forces and reduction potential of China’s CO 2 emissions. ► The Environmental Kuznets Curve is not strongly supported by the estimation results. ► China’s CO 2 emissions will increase up to 2020, but the reduction potential is large.

Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from CO2 and SO2 emissions in the United Kingdom

This study looks at the behaviour of emissions when in disequilibrium with respect to the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship. We use the non-linear threshold cointegration and error correction methodology and a long dataset beginning in 1830, in an application to the United Kingdom. There is significant evidence that, not only does the ‘inverse-U’ shape hold between per capita CO2 and SO2 emissions and GDP per capita, but we also find that temporary disequilibrium from the long-run EKC is corrected in an asymmetric fashion. This may be due to the historical pressure of environmental regulation in the UK to reduce emissions that are higher than permitted. However further analysis suggests that technological change can partially account for the asymmetric adjustment.

CO 2 weighted convergence across the EU-25 countries (1920–2007)

In this paper, per capita CO 2 convergence among the EU-25 countries between 1920 and 2007 is analysed using the distribution dynamics approach. Furthermore, the analysis is complemented by investigating the asymptotic half-life of convergence, mobility indices and the continuous version of the ergodic distributions. The novel aspect of this work consists in the fact that it examines whether patterns could differ if weighted by either the population of each country or their economic sizes. The unweighted analysis indicates that the convergence patterns differ strongly before and after World War II, with more convergence being displayed after the seventies. Results of weighting both by population and by economic size show that convergence is much faster when these features are introduced into the model. Conclusions from this analysis are important for the environment policy adopted across the EU-25 countries.

Examining the link between carbon dioxide emissions and the share of industry in GDP: Modeling and testing for the G-7 countries

In this paper, the relationship between per capita CO 2 emissions and the share of industrial value added in gross domestic product (GDP) for the G-7 countries is discussed using a novel approach. It is assumed that per capita CO 2 emissions are correspondent to the share of industrial value added in GDP. A model is developed using hidden Markov process to search this initial assumption. In the model, the data for industrial share in GDP are assigned to be the observations, while the data for per capita CO 2 emissions represent the hidden process, which may be then predicted using the ratio of industrial value added to GDP. The data set covers the period from 1970 to 2008 and the model is tested for the G-7 countries. The study findings show that, except in the case of Canada, the hidden Markov model performs reasonably well in tracking per capita CO 2 emissions. The study results provide also a basis for a number of policy implications.

Convergence in per capita CO 2 emissions: A robust distributional approach

Abstract This paper investigates the convergence hypothesis for per capita CO 2 emissions with a panel of 166 world areas covering the period 1960–2002. The analysis is based on the evolution of the spatial distributions over time. Robust measures of dispersion, asymmetry, peakedness and two nonparametric distributional tests – shape equality and multimodality – are used to assess spatial time differences. A robust normal reference bandwidth is also applied to estimate Markov’s transition laws and its subsequent ergodic (long-run) distributions. Our results point toward non-stationary, flattening and right-skewed spatial distributions before the oil price shocks of the 1970s and more stable and symmetric shapes between 1980 and 2000 at the world level and for many country groupings (similar income, geographic neighbors, institutional partners). In the latter period, group-specific convergence patterns emerge with the clearest single-peaked and compact density shapes being reached in the wealthy, well-integrated and European countries during the last years of the panel. No significant multimodality is formally detected in the world distribution over the whole period. The Markov analysis suggests more divergence and larger per capita emissions for the world in the long run, with a doubling in median emissions and stable pollution gaps during the first 50 years of the transition. A variety of steady state distributions are identified in the country subsets.

Decomposing international polarization of per capita CO 2 emissions

The aim of this paper is to analyze the international polarization of per capita CO 2 emissions with exogenous groups based on the Z–K measure ( Zhang and Kanbur, 2001), whose main differential advantage lies on its factor-decomposability. In particular, we propose to use the factor decomposition based on Kaya (1989) by applying the methodology suggested by Duro and Padilla (2006). The main empirical results derived can be summarized as follows. First, the international polarization of emissions has significantly decreased over time during the period 1971–2006, when regional sets of nations based on the IEA structure are used; secondly, this decrease can be almost exclusively based on the reduction of the average dissimilarities among sets of countries and not due to a within-group cohesion process. Lastly, this reduction can be mainly attributed to the role of the affluence factor, and to a lesser extent, to the energy intensities. Thus, and given the values achieved for the different components, it seems that further reductions in the international polarization will continue be based on the economic convergence among groups.

Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the EU: Legend or reality?

Designing appropriate environmental and energy policies, in order to meet the Kyoto protocol's carbon dioxide (CO 2) reduction targets in the European Union (EU), requires a detailed examination and thorough understanding of CO 2 emission trends across the EU member states. This paper investigates whether CO 2 emissions have converged across 22 European countries over the 1971 to 2006 period. The Bayesian shrinkage estimation method is employed to do this work and the results reveal the following: first, the hypothesis of absolute convergence in per capita CO 2 emissions is supported and a slight upward convergence is observed; second, the fact that countries differ considerably in both their speed of convergence and volatility in emissions makes it possible to identify different groups of countries; third, the results with respect to convergence do not vary much once the share of industry in GDP is accounted for in a conditional convergence analysis. However, a decreasing share of industry in GDP seems to contribute to a decline in per capita emissions. These findings may carry important implications for both national and EU environmental policies.

Stochastic convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions and multiple structural breaks in OECD countries

This research applies an innovative panel data stationarity testing procedure developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Barrio-Castro, T.D. and Lopez-Bazo, E., 2005. Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita, Econometrics Journal 8, 159–175.], which has the advantage of recognizing multiple structural breaks and the presence of cross-section dependence in order to re-investigate the hypothesis that per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions stochastically converge for 21 OECD countries from 1950 to 2002. Remarkably, the evidence clearly indicates that the panel dataset of relative per capita CO 2 emissions is stationary after the structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence are introduced into the model. These findings offer strong policy implications for governments, regardless of whether they are in “convergent group” or “divergent group” countries. We also find that the structural breaks in the 1960s and over the 1970–1982 period are associated with time periods of fossil fuel becoming the main source of productivity, higher oil prices, and the development of nuclear power.

Re-Examining the Empirical Evidence for Stochastic Convergence of Two Air Pollutants with a Pair-Wise Approach

This paper examines the hypothesis of stochastic convergence for two air pollutants emissions (carbon dioxide [CO2] and sulfur dioxide [SO2]). The value-added of this paper lies in the use of a recent, alternative econometric method, a pair-wise approach that considers all the possible pairs of log per-capita pollutant emission gaps across all the countries in the sample. In this method, all emissions differences must be stationary around a constant mean. Empirical results support different conclusions on stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 and SO2 emissions depending on the choice of the unit root test. The use of specific critical values from the ADF-KPSS joint test overcomes these initial conflicting results and leads to small percentages of stationary pairs around a constant mean; which invalidate the hypothesis of stochastic convergence for per capita emissions of CO2 and SO2, even over the OECD sub-dataset.

Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications

Urban areas contain 40% of the population and contribute 75% of the Chinese national economy. Thus, a better understanding of urban energy uses is necessary for Chinese decision-makers at various levels to address energy security, climate change mitigation, and local pollution abatement. Therefore, this paper addresses three key questions: What is the urban contribution to China's energy usage and CO 2 emissions? What is the contribution of large cities, and what alternate energy–economy pathways are they following? How have energy uses and CO 2 emissions transformed in the last two decades in key Chinese cities? This three-tier analysis illustrates the changes in urban energy uses and CO 2 emissions in China. The results show that the urban contributions make up 84% of China's commercial energy usage. The 35 largest cities in China, which contain 18% of the population, contribute 40% of China's energy uses and CO 2 emissions. In four provincial cities, the per capita energy usage and CO 2 emissions have increased several-fold. Rapid progress was made in reducing the carbon intensity of economic activities in cities throughout the 1990s, but alarmingly, such progress has either slowed down or been reversed in the last few years. These results have important policy implications.

Measuring countries’ cooperation within the international climate change regime

Abstract We present a method how to estimate and compare the cooperative behavior of countries within the international climate change regime. Two indicators measure whether and how fast countries have committed to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol (KP). Three additional indicators quantify whether and how effectively measures have been implemented in line with these agreements. These three measures are reporting, financial contributions, and development of per capita CO 2 emissions in relation to the per capita gross domestic product of each country. Results show that developed countries with emission targets under the KP ratified the protocol more often and faster, submitted their report timelier, and paid their annual financial contributions to the UNFCCC secretariat more regularly than the other countries. However, concerning CO 2 emissions, developing countries are evaluated more positively than developed countries. The five indicators are aggregated to a ‘Cooperation Index’ that evaluates 198 countries’ cooperative behavior within the international climate regime on a scale between 0 (=least cooperative) and 6 (=most cooperative). According to this Cooperation Index, the following large countries are ranked after their level of cooperation in ascending order: United States of America, Australia, Russia, Canada, Brazil, China, India, South Africa, and large European countries.

New evidence on the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions from panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey–Fuller tests

Abstract Using the data for per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions relative to the average per capita emissions for 21 countries in the organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD) covering the period 1960–2000, this paper seeks to determine whether the stochastic convergence and β-convergence of CO 2 emissions are supported in countries with the same level of development. In other words, are shocks to relative per capita CO 2 emissions temporary in industrialized countries? We respond to this question by utilizing Breuer et al.'s [Breuer JB, McNown R, Wallace MS. Misleading inferences from panel unit-root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity. Review of International Economics 2001;9(3):482–93; Breuer JB, McNown R, Wallace MS. Series-specific unit-root tests with panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2002 64(5):527–46] panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey–Fuller (SURADF) unit-root tests, which allow us to account for possible cross-sectional effects and to identify how many and which members of the panel contain a unit root. Our empirical findings provide evidence that relative per capita CO 2 emissions in OECD countries are a mixture of I(0) and I(1) processes, in which 14 out of 21 OECD countries exhibit divergence. The results reveal that conventional panel unit-root tests can lead to misleading inferences biased towards stationarity even if only one series in the panel is strongly stationary.

Analysis of the international distribution of per capita CO 2 emissions using the polarization concept

The concept of polarization is linked to the extent that a given distribution leads to the formation of homogeneous groups with opposing interests. This concept, which is basically different from the traditional one of inequality, is related to the level of inherent potential conflict in a distribution. The polarization approach has been widely applied in the analysis of income distribution. The extension of this approach to the analysis of international distribution of CO 2 emissions is quite useful as it gives a potent informative instrument for characterizing the state and evolution of the international distribution of emissions and its possible political consequences in terms of tensions and the probability of achieving agreements. In this paper we analyze the international distribution of per capita CO 2 emissions between 1971 and 2001 through the adaptation of the polarization concept and measures. We find that the most interesting grouped description deriving from the analysis is a two groups’ one, which broadly coincide with Annex B and non-Annex B countries of the Kyoto Protocol, which shows the power of polarization analysis for explaining the generation of groups in the real world. The analysis also shows a significant reduction in international polarization in per capita CO 2 emissions between 1971 and 1995, but not much change since 1995, which might indicate that polarized distribution of emission is still one of the important factors leading to difficulties in achieving agreements for reducing global emissions.