ABSTRACT This study delves into the trajectory of democracy in Iran between 2009 and 2022, employing Charles Tilly’s framework of democratization and de-democratization. It investigates the factors that contribute to failure of moving toward democracy and explores how changes in nation-state cleavage impact the democratic landscape. The study examines how state power, including its capacity, capabilities, and degree of institutionalization, and nation power in Iran can be used to measure the extent of nation-state cleavage. It endeavors to elucidate the factors underpinning the regression of democratization in Iran. The findings underscore that the Green Movement and post-2017 protests have compelled the state to further securitize and amplify its repressive capacity, as evidenced by the expanded political, economic, and security sway of the IRGC. This phenomenon, compounded by international sanctions and the state’s inadequate efficacy in delivering social services, has led to a substantial withdrawal of trust networks from public politics, exacerbating processes of categorical inequality. Consequently, this erosion has engendered diminished protected consultation and bolstered state capacity in repression, thereby elucidating the downward trajectory of democratization in Iran.
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