Cannabis Market Research Articles

Access to cannabis retail stores across Canada 6 months following legalization: a descriptive study.

On Oct. 17, 2018, Canada legalized recreational cannabis with the dual goals of reducing youth use and eliminating the illicit cannabis market. We examined factors associated with access to physical cannabis stores across Canada 6 months following legalization. We extracted the address and operating hours of all legal cannabis stores in Canada from online government and private listings. We conducted a descriptive study examining the association between private/hybrid (mixture of government and private stores) and government-only retail models with 4 measures of physical access to cannabis: store density, weekly hours of operation, median distance to the nearest school and relative availability of cannabis stores between low- and high-income neighbourhoods. Six months after legalization, there were 260 cannabis retail stores across Canada: 181 privately run stores, 55 government-run stores and 24 stores in the hybrid retail system. Compared to jurisdictions with a government-run model, jurisdictions with a private/hybrid retail model had 49% (95% confidence interval 10%-200%) more stores per capita, retailers were open on average 9.2 more hours per week, and stores were located closer to schools (median 166.7 m). In both retail models, there was over twice the concentration of cannabis stores in neighbourhoods in the lowest income quintile compared to the highest income quintile. Marked differences in physical access to cannabis retail are emerging between jurisdictions with private/hybrid retail models and those with government-only retail models. Ongoing surveillance including monitoring differences in cannabis use and harms across jurisdictions is needed.

Race Based Statutes at Play with Cannabis: Cultivating a Process for Weeding Out the Competition

The ongoing battle between federal and state cannabis laws have created a perplexing realm of ambiguity for legislatures tasked with establishing drug policy. In the midst of this intricate conflict lies another issue that is wreaking havoc throughout the legalized cannabis marketplace. With federal and state governments failing to administer concrete guidance by virtue of lacking to establish policies which govern concurrently and in a harmonious manner, laws have been enforced on both the federal and state levels, that are negatively impacting various minority groups and their potential to capitalize on the multibillion-dollar cannabis industry. This article will examine the arguments for, and against, current and proposed legislation that impacts licensure for minority groups trying to enter the legalized cannabis marketplace. Particularly, this article will address the primary obstacles that most negatively affect minorities and the specific role that each barrier has played in preventing minority entrepreneurs from becoming business owners and seizing the opportunity to cash in on this new lucratively flourishing agricultural business that is taking the nation by storm. While not much research has been conducted on the topic of minority business owners obtaining licenses to operate in the legalized cannabis market, the primary goal of this article is to stimulate dialogue and encourage further research into the impact that legalizing cannabis is having on minority business owners trying to establish themselves as legitimate participants in this up-and-coming industry.

Using wastewater-based analysis to monitor the effects of legalized retail sales on cannabis consumption in Washington State, USA.

To perform a wastewater-based analysis to explore the impact of newly legalized retail cannabis sales on its use and to determine if this approach could estimate the size of the legal market place, which began 1August 2014 in the study area. Laboratory study of raw wastewater samples collected and analyzed over the 3-year period from 2014 to 2016. Samples obtained from the two wastewater treatment plants that serviced a municipality of 200 000 people in the state of Washington, USA. Quantitative analysis of 24-hour composite influent samples for the metabolite of the active ingredient in cannabis, 11-nor-9-Carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH) were performed by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Wastewater estimates for THC-COOH increased by 9% per quarter, suggesting a doubling in cannabis consumption from 1 December 2013 to 31 December 2016. State-sold THC increased at nearly 70% per quarter, while stores operated from 1 August 2014 to 31 December 2016. Estimating the proportion of the total cannabis market supplied by state-regulated cannabis from these data is not currently achievable. A wastewater-based measure of cannabis consumption suggests a significant increase in consumption in Washington, USA following legalization, and that legal sales appear to have displaced a large portion of the illicit market.

Breaking bad: An investment in cannabis

This paper investigates the risk and return features of an investment in the cannabis industry. It further describes the current state of the market for cannabis and critically examines its potential future development. Findings show that a portfolio of cannabis stocks displays high volatilities and returns, but also low correlations and beta coefficients with regard to overall stock markets, other sin industries or cryptocurrencies. This makes it an interesting addition to financial portfolios.

Prevalence and correlates of selling illicit cannabis among people who use drugs in Vancouver, Canada: A ten-year prospective cohort study

BackgroundThe illicit selling and use of cannabis is prevalent among marginalized people who use illicit drugs (PWUD). Given that participation in illicit drug markets has been previously associated with a range of health and social harms, we sought to examine the predictors of selling cannabis among PWUD in Vancouver, Canada, a setting with a de facto legalized cannabis market, on the eve of the planned implementation of legalized non-medical cannabis including measures to regulate the existing illicit market. MethodsMultivariable generalized estimating equations (GEE) logistic regression was used to analyze longitudinal factors associated with selling illicit cannabis among three prospective cohorts of PWUD between September 2005 and May 2015. ResultsAmong the 3258 participants included in this study, 328 (10.1%) reported selling illicit cannabis at baseline, and 46 (5.1%) initiated cannabis selling over the study period. In the multivariable analysis of the whole sample, factors significantly associated with selling cannabis included cannabis use (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 4.05), dealing other drugs (AOR = 3.87), being male (AOR = 1.83), experiencing violence (AOR = 1.40), non-medical prescription opioid use (AOR = 1.32), non-custodial involvement in the criminal justice system (AOR = 1.31), being stopped by police (AOR = 1.30), crack use (AOR = 1.25), homelessness (AOR = 1.23), age (AOR = 0.96 per year) and participation in sex work (AOR = 0.67) (all p < 0.05). The subanalyses indicated that dealing drugs other than cannabis, cannabis use, and non-custodial involvement in the criminal justice system were the only factors significantly associated with selling cannabis in all four subgroups. ConclusionThese findings support existing evidence indicating that selling illicit cannabis is often a survival-driven strategy to support the basic needs and substance use of some PWUD. Our findings suggest jurisdictions with planned or impending cannabis legalization and regulation should consider the vulnerability of PWUD when seeking to eradicate illicit cannabis markets, for example, in setting criminal penalties for selling cannabis outside of regulatory frameworks.

Commentary on Freeman et al. (2019): Why does cannabis potency still vary across European countries?

Although the potency of cannabis has increased in almost every European country between 2006 and 2016, substantial differences among countries persist, with important public health consequences. Possible explanations for variations across Europe in the cannabis market include tastes (demand-side) and enforcement or input price differences (supply-side). Freeman et al. 4 contribute new observations to this puzzle of varying equilibria in national markets. They present data on the potency of cannabis [as measured by the percentage of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)] in 21 European countries during the period 2006–16. For all but two countries, potency of herbal cannabis increases during that period, mostly by a substantial amount. There is reason to believe that there are common factors at work here, and Freeman and collaborators suggest that there has been an improvement in technology for cannabis production. However, in 2016, visual inspection of the fitted graphs for herbal cannabis (4, Fig. S2) suggests a range of average potencies almost as broad as in 2006. Putting aside the Netherlands, with its quasi-legal market for cannabis and unchanging potency of 15%, the 2016 range is approximately 3–15%, whereas in 2006 it was approximately 0.5–10%. Similar patterns can be observed for cannabis resin (4, Fig. S1). There is little evidence of a convergence or harmonizing across markets. As with purity in the cocaine and heroin markets, cannabis potency is a product decision by producers, which partially reflects customer taste. The variation in potency probably matters for public health, as Freeman et al. note, because user titration is imperfect; those who consume very high-potency cannabis may consume more THC. Thus, it would be useful to investigate what factors drive potency variation. To my knowledge, no such effort has been published. It is not necessary to rely on national-level data for such research. There may well be similar variation among cities within countries that would allow exploration of these hypotheses where city-level data are available. The fact that almost all European nations have experienced an increase in potency does not lessen the significance of the national variation; it merely deepens the puzzle. None.

EYE ON CHINA

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Phenotypic plasticity influences the success of clonal propagation in industrial pharmaceutical Cannabis sativa.

The burgeoning cannabis market requires evidence-based science such that farmers can quickly and efficiently generate new plants. In part, horticultural operations are limited by the success of cloning procedures. Here, we measured the role of environmental conditions and cultivar identity on the success of generating long branch material with many meristems in planting stock (mothers) and in rooting success of stem-derived clones. To evaluate the influence of lighting treatments on the optimal production of branching mothers, four lighting conditions (Fluorescent High Output T5s [T5], Metal halide lamps [MH], Plasma lamps [PL], or Metal halide lamps augmented with far red LED lights [MH+FR]) were applied to two cultivars of container grown plants (Cannabis sativa L. ‘Bubba Kush’, ‘Ghost Train Haze’) grown in peat-based organic substrates in mylar grow tents. To evaluate the influence of lighting, cutting tool (secateurs or scalpels), and stem wounding (present/absent) on optimal rooting of stems, three lighting conditions (Fluorescent T8s, T5, PL) were applied to three cultivars of peat pellet grown plants (C. sativa L. ‘Bubba Kush’, ‘Ghost Train Haze’, ‘Headband’). Mothers grown under T5 and MH (vs MH+FR) produced ~30% more meristems. However, growing mothers under MH+FR were 19% taller than mothers under T5, with ~25% longer internodes on dominant stems than plants under any other lighting condition. Canopies were denser under T5 because petiole length was ~30% shorter under T5 and fan leaves were longer and narrower under MH+FR and MH+FR and PL, respectively, than under other lighting conditions. Cultivar Ghost Train Haze stems rooted most frequently and most quickly. Wounded stems were 162% more likely to root than unwounded stems and rooted 1.5 days earlier. Our results will guide producers attempting to maximize the rate of clone production in licensed facilities; although results may differ among cultivars, where cultivars differed in their average phenotype as mother plants, and their propensity to root from cuttings, and the speed with which they produced those roots.

Illegal cannabis cultivation in Europe: new developments

Herbal cannabis is one of the most consumed illegal drugs in Europe, with increasing local production. Illicit cannabis cultivation is not new to Western Europe. It first emerged on the scene in the 1970s, in the wake of the counter-culture following the 1968 Protests. Since then, it has gradually become more professional due to the increased diversification of involved actors, such as Organized Crime Groups (OCG), and the growing role of players linked to mafia organizations in both Italy and Albany. In Spain and France, where Moroccan resin has long dominated supply and demand, the cannabis market has seen a rise in herbal cannabis production. This, in turn, challenges the role of OCGs invested in resin importation. Yet, European marihuana production cannot be defined as a strictly criminal business. Small growers remain significant actors in production. This trend in production must be examined against evolving attitudes towards marihuana at the global level, linked especially to new legislation in the United States and in Canada.

Human Rights Litigation and the Medicalization of Cannabis in Canada, ca. 2000–Present

Cannabis was legalized for recreational purposes in Canada on October 17, 2018. The push to overturn nearly a century of prohibition seemingly took place overnight after Justin Trudeau promised legalization as part of his 2015 federal election platform. Canadians were already familiar with debates for and against a policy change. Starting in the early 2000s, cannabis advocates challenged its criminalization in Canadian courts from a health and human rights perspective. Part of this strategy included proving cannabis’s relative harmlessness from both social and scientific points of view, something widely accepted by the courts. Nonetheless, it took several legal decisions to create and open a market for medical cannabis. Its consequent availability, however limited, introduced Canadians to its medical value. Recreational cannabis was a separate, yet entwined, issue. The Canadian government refused to allow cannabis use for anything other than therapeutic purposes. Courts were not as receptive to arguments related to liberty and autonomy without a healthcare angle and would not force the federal government to change its prohibitionist tack. This article tracks how litigants wore away at prohibition by articulating their claims in the language of constitutional rights and freedoms. It then evaluates the courtroom adjudication of science and medicine in light of the legal interpretation of John Stuart Mill’s “harm principle.” These discourses were key in framing how professionals and the public came to know cannabis as a medicine to which they had a right to use and paved the way for its legalization and regulation for recreational purposes in 2018.

Retail price and availability of illicit cannabis in Canada

IntroductionThis study sought to estimate the number of illicit retailers and the average price of cannabis in the largest municipality in each province and territory in Canada by obtaining information from retailers. MethodsOnline search engines were used to identify retailers in each municipality. The advertised prices for various volumes of the least expensive, most expensive, and most popular dry herb were determined using the retailer's website, Weedmaps, or Leafly. Data was collected between October 2017 and May 2018, including two waves in Toronto to examine changes over a five-month period. ResultsAcross the 13 municipalities, 997 cannabis retailers were identified, including 215 physical storefronts. The average price per gram of cannabis was $10.02, $7.80, and $12.30 for the most popular, least expensive, and most expensive strains, respectively. The price-per-gram decreased as purchase volume increased: purchasing one-eighth of an ounce and one ounce of cannabis led to savings of up to 9% and 27%, respectively. Prices were consistent across municipalities, although the number of outlets varied greatly. Prices were similar between storefronts and delivery-only services; however, delivery services offered larger discounts for cannabis purchased by the ounce. The five-month comparison in Toronto revealed modest changes in the number of retailers and more pronounced changes in the price of the most popular and least expensive strains. ConclusionThe findings depict a well-established retail cannabis market in Canada in the year prior to legalization. The average advertised price of the most popular cannabis varieties was approximately $10, which aligns with the projected retail price of cannabis from licensed sources following legalization in Canada.

Identity narratives in the face of market competition: the emerging legal medical cannabis market in Canada

As the medical cannabis industry in Canada moved from a single government producer to an open market model in 2014, this paper provides insight into how entrepreneurs from illegal medical cannabis dispensaries, as well as legal licensed producers, protect their position and reputation in this ‘emerging’ market. On the one hand, MCDs are illegal, niche-filling entities that have historically been ‘boxed out’ by the legal framework, trying to survive untouched by enforcement and supported by faithful clientele. Licensed producers (LPs), on the other hand, are new legal entities that follow a strict government regulated framework, and are essentially stepping on their illegal predecessor’s territory. This project draws on 63 in-depth qualitative interviews, when medical cannabis access transitioned to an open market model. In this context, we see that rather than attempts to construct a credible shared identity for legitimacy, the emphasis is on building a distinct identity narrative in the face of market competition. The emergence of legal cannabis markets and the future of cannabis legalization in Canada presents a fruitful avenue for continuing the study of both the micro and macro processes in emerging markets, organizations, and entrepreneurial activities.

Inter se Modification of the UN Drug Control Conventions

Abstract Legal tensions are growing as more jurisdictions move towards legal regulation of the cannabis market in contravention of the obligation under UN drug control treaties to limit cannabis exclusively to medical and scientific purposes. Reaching a global consensus to amend the conventions does not appear to be a viable political option in the foreseeable future. Amongst the limited options not requiring consensus, inter se modification – based on article 41 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties – provides a useful safety valve for collective action to adjust a treaty regime arguably frozen in time. Restrictions imposed on inter se modification require a clear commitment to the original treaty aim to promote the health and welfare of humankind and to the original treaty obligations vis-à-vis states not party to the agreement. A coordinated collective response has benefits compared to a chaotic scenario of multiple unilateral reservations and questionable re-interpretations.

Six Years Later

Cryptomarkets are online illicit marketplaces where drug dealers advertise the sale of illicit drugs. Anonymizing technologies such as the Tor network and virtual currencies are used to hide cryptomarket participants’ identity and to limit the ability of law enforcement agencies to make arrests. In this paper, our aim is to describe how herbal cannabis dealers and buyers in the United States have adapted to the online sale of herbal cannabis through cryptomarkets. To achieve this goal, we evaluate the size and scope of the American herbal cannabis market on cryptomarkets and compare it to other drug markets from other countries, evaluate the impact of cryptomarkets on offline sales of herbal cannabis, and evaluate the ties between the now licit herbal cannabis markets in some States and cryptomarkets. Our results suggest that only a small fraction of herbal cannabis dealers and drug users have transitioned to cryptomarkets. This can be explained by the need for technical skills to buy and sell herbal cannabis online and by the need to have access to computers that are not accessible to all. The slow rate of adoption may also be explained by the higher price of herbal cannabis relative to street prices. If cryptomarkets were to be adopted by a larger portion of the herbal cannabis market actors, our results suggest that wholesale and regional distributors who are not active on cryptomarkets would be the most affected market’s participants.

Faut-il légaliser le cannabis en France ? Un bilan socio-économique

Cet article compare le régime légal actuel du cannabis, tel qu’il découle de la mise en œuvre de la loi de prohibition du 31 décembre 1970, avec différents scénarios de légalisation. Pour ce faire, et malgré les difficultés d’observation du marché souterrain, une fonction de bien-être collectif est estimée sous différents scénarios de régime juridique. La dépénalisation de la consommation viendrait augmenter le bien-être collectif. La libéralisation complète du marché du cannabis engendrerait une variation positive de bien-être collectif supérieure tout en réglant la question de la prohibition. Le bénéfice économique de la légalisation complète du cannabis ne tiendrait pas uniquement à la création de recettes fiscales mais aussi à l’économie des ressources publiques présentement allouées à la répression.

Big data on a big new market: Insights from Washington State’s legal cannabis market

IntroductionVoters in eight U.S. states have passed initiatives to legalize large-scale commercial production of cannabis for non-medical use. All plan or require some form of “seed-to-sale” tracking systems, which provide a view of cannabis market activity at a heretofore unimagined level of detail. Legal markets also create a range of new matters for policy makers to address. DataPublicly available data were obtained on approximately 45 million individually priced items purchased in the 35 million retail transactions that took place during the first two and a half years of Washington State’s legal cannabis market. Records include product type (flower, extract, lotion, liquid edible, etc.), product name, price, and potency with respect to multiple cannabinoids, notably THC and CBD. Items sold can be traced back up the supply chain through the store to the processor and producer, to the level of identifying the specific production batch and mother plant, the firm that tested the product, and test results. MethodData visualization methods are employed to describe spatial-temporal patterns of multiple correlated attributes (e.g., price and potency) broken down by product. Text-analytic methods are used to subdivide the broad category of “extracts for inhalation” into more homogeneous sub-categories. To understand the competitiveness of the legal cannabis market in Washington we calculate the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) for processors and retailers. ResultsCannabis prices fell steadily and proportionally at the processor and retailer levels. Retail and wholesale price maintained a roughly 3:1 ratio for multiple product types after some initial fluctuations. Although a wide range of edibles are sold, they account for a modest share of consumer spending; extracts for inhalation are a larger and heterogeneous market segment. The HHI indicates the cannabis market is highly competitive at the processor level, but less so for retail markets at the county level. ConclusionsWashington’s state-legal cannabis market is diverse and rapidly evolving in terms of pricing, products, and organization. Post-legalization, researchers and policy makers may need to think in terms of a family of cannabis products, akin to how we think of new psychoactive substances and amphetamine-type stimulants, not a single drug “cannabis.”

An analysis of the United Kingdom’s cannabis market using crowdsourced data

ABSTRACTThis article contributes to the growing literature on the use of computer-mediated communications to research illicit markets. In it, we conduct an analysis of the British cannabis market using data crowdsourced from a publicly available platform, PriceofWeed.com. Crowd-sourced transaction data present some new insights into the British cannabis market. First, this study has tracked the trafficking flow of cannabis within the UK. Second, it shows the extent to which a quantity discount is granted to consumers. Third, it discusses purchasing habits of cannabis users. Conclusions suggest new areas of application of crowdsourcing to research hard to reach and deviant populations.

Le marché légal du cannabis suite à sa légalisation au Canada : pistes de réflexion pour un encadrement efficace.

The upcoming legalization of cannabis in Canada poses several challenges in which each province will have to respond with effective regulation. Studies show that policies alone have little impact on use rates. However, regulatory approaches and modalities seem important to reduce the possible negative consequences that may result from legalization. Although no framework system offers a perfect solution to the issues surrounding the use and sale of cannabis, it seems essential to implement a legalization model based on a public health perspective. The modalities of this model will have to ensure a compromise between restricted access to cannabis and the maintenance of a sufficient supply to counter the illegal market. We recommend controlling the legal cannabis market through the following: a state monopoly, competitive pricing in relation to the illicit market, a sales tax modeled on the THC content, the implementation of a controlled number of points of sale of small surface area and density, a legal age of purchase from the age of majority, and a complete ban on the promotion and advertising of cannabis products, as well as massive funding for prevention and research.

Crime and the legalization of recreational marijuana

First-pass evidence is provided that the legalization of the cannabis market across US states is inducing a crime drop. We exploit the staggered legalization of recreational marijuana enacted by the adjacent states of Washington (end of 2012) and Oregon (end of 2014). Combining county-level difference-in-differences and spatial regression discontinuity designs, we find that the policy caused a significant reduction in rapes and property crimes on the Washington side of the border in 2013–2014 relative to the Oregon side and relative to the pre-legalization years 2010–2012. The legalization also increased consumption of marijuana and reduced consumption of other drugs and both ordinary and binge alcohol. Four possible mechanisms are discussed: the direct psychotropic effects of cannabis; substitution away from violence-inducing substances; reallocation of police effort; reduced role of criminals in the marijuana business.

Proposed Models of Marijuana Distribution in Canada: Public or Private?

A number of Canadian provinces have, in the wake of the decision to legalize recreational marijuana, deliberated on the various methods of distribution to utilize. While both the public and private distribution models have their inherent merits, it is important to recognize the flaws certain distribution models will have in the Canadian psychoactive substance market. The inception of a cannabis market will be the first of its kind since the end of prohibition in Canada. A proper examination of the implications created in a Canadian context following different ideological methods of distribution implemented is necessary to create a broad picture to keep Canadians fiscally as well as socially informed. While this paper takes a clear argumentative stance on which model of distribution Canada should ideally follow, it is hardly an entirely comprehensive reading on the subject, making broad strokes in describing the implications of undertakings by the respective governments and corporations mentioned.