Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Research Articles

Movement of decaying quasi-2-day wave in the austral summer-time mesosphere

The quasi-2-day wave (Q2DW) is a large temperature disturbance in the austral summer-time mesosphere. Its decay-phase movement and phase-speed are poorly understood. Q2DW events observed by the microwave limb sounder (MLS) onboard the NASA Aura satellite reveal that during the temperature Q2DW’s decay-phase, the Q2DW temperature disturbance is still substantial, but its phase-speed reduces exponentially, on average, from around −70 to −20 m/s in around 30-days. Observations also reveal significant interannual variability in these phase-speed values. Q2DW events simulated by the extended Canadian middle atmosphere model (eCMAM) reveal that during the Q2DW decay-phase, the temperature Q2DW phase-speed is strongly correlated with the summer mesosphere easterly jet (SMEJ) wind values. eCMAM also shows that the phase-speed interannual variabilities partially reflect the interannual variabilities of the SMEJ. Planetary-wave diagnostics indicate that during the Q2DW’s decay phase, there is still an active transfer of momentum from the SMEJ into Q2DW. The model simulations therefore indicate that the SMEJ plays a substantial role in the decaying temperature Q2DW phase-speed variabilities observed by MLS. This adds to our knowledge of how the SMEJ affects the Q2DW.

Validation of Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Abstract. The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) is currently providing the only measurements of vertically resolved chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) from space. This study assesses the ACE-FTS HCFC-22 v5.2 product in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, as well as simulations of HCFC-22 from a 39-year specified dynamics run of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM39) in the same region. In general, ACE-FTS HCFC-22 observations tend to agree with subsampled CMAM39 data to within ±5 %, except for between ∼ 15 and 25 km in the extratropical regions where ACE-FTS exhibits a negative bias of 5 %–30 % and near 6 km in the tropics where ACE-FTS exhibits a bias of −15 %. When comparing against correlative satellite, aircraft, and balloon data, ACE-FTS typically exhibits a low bias on the order of 0 %–10 % between ∼ 5 and 15 km and is within ±15 % between ∼ 15 and 25 km. ACE-FTS, CMAM39, and surface flask measurements from the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory's surface air-sampling network all exhibit consistent tropospheric HCFC-22 trends ranging between 6.8 and 7.8 ppt yr−1 (within 95 % confidence) for 2004–2012 and between 3.1 and 4.7 ppt yr−1 (within 95 % confidence) for 2012–2018. Interhemispheric differences (IHDs) of HCFC-22 were also derived using ACE-FTS, NOAA, and CMAM39 data, and all three yielded consistent and correlated (r≥0.42) IHD time series, with the results indicating that surface IHD values decreased at a rate of 2.2 ± 1.1 ppt per decade between 2004 and 2018.

120-day variability in migrating tides from CMAM30 winds

Migrating tides and their variability are investigated using Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM30) zonal and meridional wind data from 1979 to 2010. Migrating diurnal (DW1) and semi-diurnal (SW2) tides show strong annual and semi-annual variations. The former is stronger in the Southern Hemisphere and the latter is significant over sub-tropical latitudes in the mesosphere. Wavelet analysis in the mesopause region shows a 120-day variability in SW2 tide over equator and ∼±20∘ with no apparent connection with solar activity. A close inspection shows that the 120-day variation is not due to variations in solar energy inputs.

Characteristics of non-migrating diurnal tides in long-term CMAM30 horizontal winds

Variability of non-migrating diurnal tides are investigated using Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM30) in zonal and meridional wind data from 1979 to 2010. Diurnal stationary tide (DS0) is found to maximise during boreal summers in both hemispheres in the middle atmosphere while the diurnal westward propagating tide of wavenumber two (DW2) maximises during boreal winters in both hemispheres. Both tides show strong annual variations over sub-tropical regions centered over ±25° latitudes along with significant short term variability from 20 to 100 days. The investigations of short term variations of DW2 show significant correspondence with the variability of stationary planetary wave of wavenumber one (SPW1) in the high latitudes in both hemispheres as well as with DW2 amplitudes from lower atmosphere. It is thereby concluded in the current study that DW2 in the mesosphere is not only produced by non-linear interactions of SPW1 and the diurnal migrating tide (DW1) but also has contributions from sources in the lower atmosphere. On the other hand, variability of DS0 does not show any similarity with that of SPW1 and thereby indicate sources only from the lower atmosphere. In the high-latitude stratosphere, DS0 and DW2 amplitudes are negligible and thereby the contribution of non-linear interactions to their generation in this region is minimal.

Short-Term Variability of Non-Migrating Diurnal Tides in the Stratosphere from CMAM30, ERA-Interim, and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC

The variability of non-migrating tides in the stratosphere is investigated using temperature data from Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM30), ERA-interim reanalysis and Formosa Satellite-3 and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) from 2006 to 2010 using a ±10-day window. CMAM30 and ERA results show that the amplitudes of non-migrating tides, DS0 and DW2, are negligible in the mid and high-latitude stratosphere, and the results from satellite datasets are significantly affected by aliasing in this region, in spite of using a smaller window size for analysis (±10 days). Significant short term variability ranging from 30 to 100 days is observed in DS0 and DW2 over the equatorial and tropical latitudes. These tides are seen as two prominent bands around the equator with DS0 maximising during boreal summers and DW2 maximising during boreal winters. These variabilities are compared with the variability in amplitude of the stationary planetary wave with wavenumber one (SPW1) in the high-latitude stratosphere using the continuous wavelet transform (CWT). It is found that during boreal winters, the variability of SPW1 at 10 hPa over 65° N is similar to that of DS0 and DW2 over the equator at 0.0007 hPa. This provides evidence that SPW1 from the high-altitude stratosphere moving upward and equator-ward could be interacting with the migrating diurnal tide and generating the non-migrating tides in the equatorial mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The variabilities, however, are not comparable during summers, with SPW1 being absent in the Northern Hemisphere. It is thus concluded that non-linear interactions could be a source of non-migrating tidal variability in the equatorial MLT region during boreal winters, but during summers, the tidal variabilities have other sources in the lower atmosphere. The anti-symmetric nature of the vertical global structures indicates that these tides could be the result of global atmospheric oscillations proposed by the classical tidal theory.

Water vapour and ozone in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere: global climatologies from three Canadian limb-viewing instruments

Abstract. This study presents upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) water vapour and ozone climatologies generated from 14 years (June 2004 to May 2018) of measurements made by three Canadian limb-viewing satellite instruments: the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the Measurement of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation (MAESTRO), and the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS; ozone only). This selection of instruments was chosen to explore the capability of these Canadian instruments in representing the UTLS and to enable analysis of the impact of different measurement sampling patterns. The water vapour and ozone climatologies have been constructed using tropopause-relative potential temperature and equivalent-latitude coordinates in an effort to best represent the distribution of these two gases in the UTLS, which is characterized by a high degree of dynamic and geophysical variability. Zonal-mean multiyear-mean climatologies are provided with 5∘ equivalent latitude and 10 K potential temperature spacing and have been constructed on a monthly, seasonal (3-month), and yearly basis. These climatologies are examined in-depth for two 3-month periods, December–January–February and June–July–August, and are compared to reference climatologies constructed from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model 39-year specified dynamics (CMAM39-SD) run, subsampled to the times and locations of the satellite measurements, in order to evaluate the consistency of water vapour and ozone between the datasets. Specifically, this method of using a subsampled model addresses the impact of each instrument's measuring pattern and allows for the quantification of the influence of different measurement patterns on multiyear climatologies. This in turn permits a more consistent evaluation of the distributions of these two gas species, as assessed through the differences between the model and measurement climatologies. For water vapour, the average absolute relative difference between CMAM39-SD and ACE-FTS differed between the two versions of ACE-FTS by less than 8 %, while the MAESTRO climatologies were found to differ by 15 %–41 % from ACE-FTS, depending on the version of ACE-FTS and the season. When considering the ozone climatologies, those constructed from the two ACE-FTS versions agreed to within 2 % overall, and the OSIRIS ozone climatologies agreed with these to within 10 %. The MAESTRO ozone climatologies differ from those from ACE-FTS and OSIRIS by 30 %–35 % and 25 %, respectively, albeit with regions of better agreement within the UTLS. These findings indicate that this set of Canadian limb sounders yields generally similar water vapour and ozone distributions in the UTLS, with some exceptions for MAESTRO depending on the season and gas species.

Quasi-two-day wave modulation of carbon dioxide in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

In this paper, we report the quasi-two-day wave (QTDW) in daytime only SABER CO2 in January 2003. The QTDW in CO2 of ∼7 ppmv or 3–4% shows double peak structures at mid and low latitudes of both hemispheres. We compare the SABER measured QTDW disturbance in CO2 and temperature to those in the eCMAM (the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model). Good agreement of QTDW CO2 spatial and temporal variations is seen, especially at southern mid-latitudes. eCMAM outputs are further analyzed to show that the QTDW in CO2 mixing ratio is mainly driven by both vertical transport and meridional advection. Because waves in vertical transport can be derived by temperature disturbance via a so-called adiabatic displacement approach, we can estimate the QTDW in CO2 mixing ratio from the SABER QTDW in temperature assuming meridional advection is weak at low and mid-latitudes.

Model estimations of geophysical variability between satellite measurements of ozone profiles

Abstract. In order to validate satellite measurements of atmospheric composition, it is necessary to understand the range of random and systematic uncertainties inherent in the measurements. On occasions where measurements from two different satellite instruments do not agree within those estimated uncertainties, a common explanation is that the difference can be assigned to geophysical variability, i.e., differences due to sampling the atmosphere at different times and locations. However, the expected geophysical variability is often left ambiguous and rarely quantified. This paper describes a case study where the geophysical variability of O3 between two satellite instruments – ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer) and OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System) – is estimated using simulations from climate models. This is done by sampling the models CMAM (Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model), EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry), and WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) throughout the upper troposphere and stratosphere at times and geolocations of coincident ACE-FTS and OSIRIS measurements. Ensemble mean values show that in the lower stratosphere, O3 geophysical variability tends to be independent of the chosen time coincidence criterion, up to within 12 h; and conversely, in the upper stratosphere geophysical variation tends to be independent of the chosen distance criterion, up to within 2000 km. It was also found that in the lower stratosphere, at altitudes where there is the greatest difference between air composition inside and outside the polar vortex, the geophysical variability in the southern polar region can be double of that in the northern polar region. This study shows that the ensemble mean estimates of geophysical variation can be used when comparing data from two satellite instruments to optimize the coincidence criteria, allowing for the use of more coincident profiles while providing an estimate of the geophysical variation within the comparison results.

Winds and tides of the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere: One year of meteor-radar observations over Rothera (68°S, 68°W) and comparisons with WACCM and eCMAM

Atmospheric tides play a critical role in the dynamics and coupling of mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT). Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that aim to span the lower, middle and upper atmosphere must therefore be capable of reproducing the tides and observations of tides are thus crucial to constrain the models. Here we present the first climatology of the 12- and 24-h tides measured at heights of 80–100 km by a meteor radar over the Antarctic station of Rothera (68°S, 68°W). We use observations of tides from 2009 in the first test of two GCMs at these latitudes: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM, 24-h tide only). Our radar observations reveal large-amplitude 12- and 24-h tides which display a distinct seasonal variability. The 12-h tide maximises around the equinoxes, reaching daily-mean amplitudes of about 40 ms−1. The 24-h tide is generally of smaller amplitude and maximises in summer. The observed 12-h tide increases greatly in amplitude with increasing height over the range 80–100 km, whereas the 24-h tide generally does not do so. Comparison with the models shows that, for the 12-h tide, WACCM reproduces the observed amplitudes at heights near 80 km quite well, but does not reproduce either the strong observed increase with height or the equinoctial maxima. For the 24-h tide, WACCM reproduces the observed small variation in amplitude with height, but suggests amplitudes somewhat larger than those observed whilst eCMAM generally reproduces the observed tidal amplitudes and the small variation of amplitude with height. The radar observations reveal great day-to-day variability in the amplitude of both tides, much of which is quasi periodic and occurs at periods similar to those of planetary waves, suggesting that it originates in non-linear tidal/planetary-wave coupling. The observed and model background winds display some notable differences, particularly in winter when eastward winds are observed at all heights but not reproduced in the models. We propose that these differences may arise from the lack of in-situ gravity-wave sources in the models and that this may also account for some of the differences apparent between the observed and modelled tides.

On the intermittency of orographic gravity wave hotspots and its importance for middle atmosphere dynamics

Abstract. When orographic gravity waves (OGWs) break, they dissipate their momentum and energy and thereby influence the thermal and dynamical structure of the atmosphere. This OGW forcing mainly takes place in the middle atmosphere. It is zonally asymmetric and strongly intermittent. So-called “OGW hotspot regions” have been shown to exert a large impact on the total wave forcing, in particular in the lower stratosphere (LS). Motivated by this we investigate the asymmetrical distribution of the three-dimensional OGW drag (OGWD) for selected hotspot regions in the specified dynamics simulation of the chemistry-climate model CMAM (Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) for the period 1979–2010. As an evaluation, we first compare zonal mean OGW fluxes and GW drag (GWD) of the model simulation with observations and reanalyses in the Northern Hemisphere. We find an overestimation of GW momentum fluxes and GWD in the model's LS, presumably attributable to the GW parameterizations which are tuned to correctly represent the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere. In the following, we define three hotspot regions which are of particular interest for OGW studies, namely the Himalayas, the Rocky Mountains and East Asia. The GW drags in these hotspot regions emerge as strongly intermittent, a result that can also quantitatively be corroborated with observational studies. Moreover, a peak-detection algorithm is applied to capture the intermittent and zonally asymmetric character of OGWs breaking in the LS and to assess composites for the three hotspot regions. This shows that LS peak OGW events can have opposing effects on the upper stratosphere and mesosphere depending on the hotspot region. Our analysis constitutes a new method for studying the intermittency of OGWs, thereby facilitating a new possibility to assess the effect of particular OGW hotspot regions on middle atmospheric dynamics.

A Regime Perspective on the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

AbstractChanges to the preferred states, or regime behavior, of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) following a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is examined using a large ensemble experiment from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model in which the stratosphere is nudged toward an SSW. In the 3 months following the SSW (January–March), the North Atlantic EDJ shifts equatorward by ~3°, on average; this arises from an increased occurrence of the EDJ’s south regime and reductions in its north and central regimes. Qualitatively similar behavior is shown in a reanalysis dataset. We show that under SSW conditions the south regime becomes more persistent and that this can explain the overall increase in the EDJ latitude decorrelation time scale. A cluster analysis reveals that, following the SSW, the south EDJ regime is characterized by weaker low-level baroclinicity and eddy heat fluxes in the North Atlantic Ocean. We hypothesize, therefore, that the increased persistence of the south regime is related to the weaker baroclinicity leading to slower growth rates of the unstable modes and hence a slower buildup of eddy heat flux, which has been shown to precede EDJ transitions. In the North Atlantic sector, the surface response to the SSW projects onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, with almost no change in the east Atlantic (EA) pattern. This behavior appears to be distinct from the modeled intrinsic variability in the EDJ, where the jet latitude index captures variations in both the NAO and EA patterns. The results offer new insight into the mechanisms for stratosphere–troposphere coupling following SSWs.

Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative flux bias from satellites

Abstract. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6 µm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry–climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present-day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting radiative forcing evolution. To that end, we constructed observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) under clear-sky conditions, representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6 µm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical middle and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mW m−2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models have flux biases over 50 mW m−2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mW m−2). We found that the atmospheric component (AM3) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation model and Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of opposite biases due to different processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is -133±98 mW m−2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque due to trapping too much radiation in the atmosphere by overestimated tropical tropospheric O3 and H2O. Having too much O3 and H2O in the troposphere would have different impacts on the sensitivity of TOA flux to O3 and these competing effects add more uncertainties on the ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.

Middle‐ and High‐Latitude Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Mean Winds and Tides in Response to Strong Polar‐Night Jet Oscillations

AbstractThe dynamical behavior of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during strongly disturbed wintertime conditions commonly known as polar‐night jet oscillations (PJOs) is described in detail and compared to other wintertime conditions. For this purpose, wind measurements provided by two specular meteor radars located at Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Juliusruh (54°N, 13°E) are used to estimate horizontal mean winds and tides as an observational basis. Winds and tidal main features are analyzed and compared for three different cases: major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with (a) strong PJO event, (b) non‐PJO event, and (c) no major SSWs. We show that the distinction into strong PJOs, non‐PJOs, and winters with no major SSWs is better suited to identify differences in the behavior of the mean winds and tides during the boreal winter. To assess the impact of the stratospheric disturbed conditions on the MLT region, we investigate the 30‐year nudged simulation by the Extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Analysis of geopotential height disturbances suggests that changes in the location of the polar vortex at mesospheric heights are responsible for the jets observed in the MLT mean winds during strong PJOs, which in turn influence the evolution of semidiurnal tides by increasing or decreasing their amplitudes depending on the tidal component.

Characterising the seasonal and geographical variability in tropospheric ozone, stratospheric influence and recent changes

Abstract. The stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone (O3) has been a subject of much debate in recent decades but is known to have an important influence. Recent improvements in diagnostic and modelling tools provide new evidence that the stratosphere has a much larger influence than previously thought. This study aims to characterise the seasonal and geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone, its variability, and its changes and provide quantification of the stratospheric influence on these measures. To this end, we evaluate hindcast specified-dynamics chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as contributed to the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry – Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (IGAC-SPARC) (IGAC–SPARC) Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) activity, together with satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and ozone-sonde profile measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) over a period of concurrent data availability (2005–2010). An overall positive, seasonally dependent bias in 1000–450 hPa (∼0–5.5 km) sub-column ozone is found for EMAC, ranging from 2 to 8 Dobson units (DU), whereas CMAM is found to be in closer agreement with the observations, although with substantial seasonal and regional variation in the sign and magnitude of the bias (∼±4 DU). Although the application of OMI averaging kernels (AKs) improves agreement with model estimates from both EMAC and CMAM as expected, comparisons with ozone-sondes indicate a positive ozone bias in the lower stratosphere in CMAM, together with a negative bias in the troposphere resulting from a likely underestimation of photochemical ozone production. This has ramifications for diagnosing the level of model–measurement agreement. Model variability is found to be more similar in magnitude to that implied from ozone-sondes in comparison with OMI, which has significantly larger variability. Noting the overall consistency of the CCMs, the influence of the model chemistry schemes and internal dynamics is discussed in relation to the inter-model differences found. In particular, it is inferred that CMAM simulates a faster and shallower Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) compared to both EMAC and observational estimates, which has implications for the distribution and magnitude of the downward flux of stratospheric ozone over the most recent climatological period (1980–2010). Nonetheless, it is shown that the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone is significant and is estimated to exceed 50 % in the wintertime extratropics, even in the lower troposphere. Finally, long-term changes in the CCM ozone tracers are calculated for different seasons. An overall statistically significant increase in tropospheric ozone is found across much of the world but particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the middle to upper troposphere, where the increase is on the order of 4–6 ppbv (5 %–10 %) between 1980–1989 and 2001–2010. Our model study implies that attribution from stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) to such ozone changes ranges from 25 % to 30 % at the surface to as much as 50 %–80 % in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) across some regions of the world, including western Eurasia, eastern North America, the South Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean. These findings highlight the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere in simulations of tropospheric ozone and its implications for the radiative forcing, air quality and oxidation capacity of the troposphere.

On the Roles of Advection and Solar Heating in Seasonal Variation of the Migrating Diurnal Tide in the Stratosphere, Mesosphere, and Lower Thermosphere

The migrating diurnal tide (DW1) presents a unique latitudinal structure in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. In this paper, the physical mechanisms that govern its seasonal variation are examined in these three regions using the 31.5-year (1979–2010) output from the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM30). DW1 annual variation in the stratosphere is mainly controlled by the short-wave heating in the high latitudes, but by both the short-wave and adiabatic heating in the low latitudes. In the mesosphere, linear and nonlinear advection play important roles in the semiannual variation of the tide whereas short-wave heating does not. In the lower thermosphere, the annual variation of DW1 is mainly governed by the short-wave heating and linear advection. This study illustrates the complexity of the main physical mechanisms modulating the seasonal variations of DW1 in different regions of the atmosphere.

Statistics on Nonmigrating Diurnal Tides Generated by Tide-Planetary Wave Interaction and Their Relationship to Sudden Stratospheric Warming

The nonmigrating diurnal tide, DW2, is known to have a source from the stationary planetary wave with wavenumber 1 (SPW1) and the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) interaction. Recent research has shown that DW2 time evolution in the equatorial mesopause tracks very well with SPW1 in the polar stratosphere for the winter of 2009–2010, which contains a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) vortex split event. This paper extends previous research and investigates the relationship between these two waves for 31 winters from 1979 to 2010 with the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM) through correlation and composite analysis. Significant correlations are present between the two waves in 20 out of 31 winters (65%). We separate the 31 winters into four categories: SSW-displacement, SSW-split, minor-SSW, and no-SSW. Our results show that there is no significant difference among the four categories in terms of correlations between the two waves. Although SPW1 is usually stronger during a SSW-D winter, this does not warrant a stronger interaction with DW2.

An assessment of natural methane fluxes simulated by the CLASS-CTEM model

Abstract. Natural methane emissions from wetlands and fire, and soil uptake of methane, simulated using the Canadian Land Surface Scheme and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem (CLASS-CTEM) modelling framework, over the historical 1850–2008 period, are assessed by using a one-box model of atmospheric methane burden. This one-box model also requires anthropogenic emissions and the methane sink in the atmosphere to simulate the historical evolution of global methane burden. For this purpose, global anthropogenic methane emissions for the period 1850–2008 were reconstructed based on the harmonized representative concentration pathway (RCP) and Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) data sets. The methane sink in the atmosphere is represented using bias-corrected methane lifetimes from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The resulting evolution of atmospheric methane concentration over the historical period compares reasonably well with observation-based estimates (correlation = 0.99, root mean square error = 35 ppb). The modelled natural emissions are also assessed using an inverse procedure where the methane lifetimes required to reproduce the observed year-to-year increase in atmospheric methane burden are calculated based upon the specified global anthropogenic and modelled natural emissions that we have used here. These calculated methane lifetimes over the historical period fall within the uncertainty range of observation-based estimates. The present-day (2000–2008) values of modelled methane emissions from wetlands (169 Tg CH4 yr−1) and fire (27 Tg CH4 yr−1), methane uptake by soil (29 Tg CH4 yr−1), and the budget terms associated with overall anthropogenic and natural emissions are consistent with estimates reported in a recent global methane budget that is based on top-down approaches constrained by observed atmospheric methane burden. The modelled wetland emissions increase over the historical period in response to both increases in precipitation and in atmospheric CO2 concentration. This increase in wetland emissions over the historical period yields evolution of the atmospheric methane concentration that compares better with observation-based values than the case when wetland emissions are held constant over the historical period.

Trend differences in lower stratospheric water vapour between Boulder and the zonal mean and their role in understanding fundamental observational discrepancies

Abstract. Trend estimates with different signs are reported in the literature for lower stratospheric water vapour considering the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) frost point hygrometer (FPH) observations at Boulder (Colorado, 40.0° N, 105.2° W) indicate positive trends (about 0.1 to 0.45 ppmv decade−1). On the contrary, negative trends (approximately −0.2 to −0.1 ppmv decade−1) are derived from a merged zonal mean satellite data set for a latitude band around the Boulder latitude. Overall, the trend differences between the two data sets range from about 0.3 to 0.5 ppmv decade−1, depending on altitude. It has been proposed that a possible explanation for these discrepancies is a different temporal behaviour at Boulder and the zonal mean. In this work we investigate trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean using primarily simulations from ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model), CMAM (Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) and CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere). On shorter timescales we address this aspect also based on satellite observations from UARS/HALOE (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Halogen Occultation Experiment), Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and Aura/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder). Overall, both the simulations and observations exhibit trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean. The differences are dependent on altitude and the time period considered. The model simulations indicate only small trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. These are clearly not sufficient to explain the discrepancies between the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations and the merged zonal mean satellite data set. Unless the simulations underrepresent variability or the trend differences originate from smaller spatial and temporal scales than resolved by the model simulations, trends at Boulder for this time period should also be quite representative for the zonal mean and even other latitude bands. Trend differences for a decade of data are larger and need to be kept in mind when comparing results for Boulder and the zonal mean on this timescale. Beyond that, we find that the trend estimates for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010 also significantly differ among the simulations. They are larger than those derived from the merged satellite data set and smaller than the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations.

Interannual variability in the gravity wave drag – vertical coupling and possible climate links

Abstract. Gravity wave drag (GWD) is an important driver of the middle atmospheric dynamics. However, there are almost no observational constraints on its strength and distribution (especially horizontal). In this study we analyze orographic GWD (OGWD) output from Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulation with specified dynamics (CMAM-sd) to illustrate the interannual variability in the OGWD distribution at particular pressure levels in the stratosphere and its relation to major climate oscillations. We have found significant changes in the OGWD distribution and strength depending on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The OGWD variability is shown to be induced by lower-tropospheric wind variations to a large extent, and there is also significant variability detected in near-surface momentum fluxes. We argue that the orographic gravity waves (OGWs) and gravity waves (GWs) in general can be a quick mediator of the tropospheric variability into the stratosphere as the modifications of the OGWD distribution can result in different impacts on the stratospheric dynamics during different phases of the studied climate oscillations.

Assessing stratospheric transport in the CMAM30 simulations using ACE-FTS measurements

Abstract. Stratospheric transport in global circulation models and chemistry–climate models is an important component in simulating the recovery of the ozone layer as well as changes in the climate system. The Brewer–Dobson circulation is not well constrained by observations and further investigation is required to resolve uncertainties related to the mechanisms driving the circulation. This study has assessed the specified dynamics mode of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM30) by comparing to the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) profile measurements of CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), and N2O. In the CMAM30 specified dynamics simulation, the meteorological fields are nudged using the ERA-Interim reanalysis and a specified tracer was employed for each species, with hemispherically defined surface measurements used as the boundary condition. A comprehensive sampling technique along the line of sight of the ACE-FTS measurements has been utilized to allow for direct comparisons between the simulated and measured tracer concentrations. The model consistently overpredicts tracer concentrations of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O in the lower stratosphere, particularly in the northern hemispheric winter and spring seasons. The three mixing barriers investigated, including the polar vortex, the extratropical tropopause, and the tropical pipe, show that there are significant inconsistencies between the measurements and the simulations. In particular, the CMAM30 simulation underpredicts mixing efficiency in the tropical lower stratosphere during the June–July–August season.