Canadian Forest Sector Research Articles

Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application

BackgroundWe analyze the forest carbon stock development following the recent historically unprecedented dieback of coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The drought-induced bark-beetle infestation resulted in record-high sanitary logging and total harvest more than doubled from the previous period. It turned Czech forestry from a long-term carbon sink offsetting about 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 to a significant source of CO2 emissions in recent years (2018–2021). In 2020, the forestry sector contributed nearly 10% to the country's overall GHG emissions. Using the nationally calibrated Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) at a regional (NUTS3) spatial resolution, we analyzed four scenarios of forest carbon stock development until 2070. Two critical points arise: the short-term prognosis for reducing current emissions from forestry and the implementation of adaptive forest management focused on tree species change and sustained carbon accumulation.ResultsThis study used four different spruce forest dieback scenarios to assess the impact of adaptive forest management on the forest carbon stock change and CO2 emissions, tree species composition, harvest possibilities, and forest structure in response to the recent unprecedented calamitous dieback in the Czech Republic. The model analysis indicates that Czech forestry may stabilize by 2025 Subsequently, it may become a sustained sink of about 3 Mt CO2 eq./year (excluding the contribution of harvested wood products), while enhancing forest resilience by the gradual implementation of adaptation measures. The speed of adaptation is linked to harvest intensity and severity of the current calamity. Under the pessimistic Black scenario, the proportion of spruce stands declines from the current 43–20% by 2070, in favor of more suited tree species such as fir and broadleaves. These species would also constitute over 50% of the harvest potential, increasingly contributing to harvest levels like those generated by Czech forestry prior to the current calamity. The standing stock would only be recovered in 50 years under the optimistic Green scenario.ConclusionThe results show progress of adaptive management by implementing tree species change and quantify the expected harvest and mitigation potential in Czech forestry until 2070.

Review of climate change adaptation and mitigation implementation in Canada's forest ecosystems part II: successes and barriers to effective implementation

With its northern location, the exposure and vulnerability of Canada's forest ecosystems to climate change impacts are all too glaring. While there is now an extensive body of literature describing expected climate change impacts and potential responses, studies characterizing the implementation of adaptation and mitigation practices in forest management remain rare in the Canadian forest sector. Using a systematic literature review, we examined reports on forest management practices implemented in response to climate change, specifically focusing on governance and institutional arrangements that either support or limit climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. Our literature sample size of 24 documents suggests that the body of literature reporting on adaptation and mitigation practices in forest management is scarce. Governments remain the dominant actors providing funding and leading the implementation and reporting of climate change adaptation practices, primarily in response to national or international climate change commitments. Forest practices such as enhanced silviculture, assisted migration, and nature-based solutions were the most frequently reported. However, given the scarcity of literature, it is difficult to conclude the scope of climate change adaptation practice uptake in Canada. Barriers such as lack of information/data, inter-jurisdictional knowledge transfer, policy conflicts, forest tenure models, technical capacity gaps, and economic barriers to adaptation need to be overcome to strengthen climate change response in forest management. Better coordination of reporting at the provincial and national levels and improved information flows between private sector organizations and governments are needed.

Under what circumstances can the forest sector contribute to 2050 climate change mitigation targets? A study from forest ecosystems to landfill methane emissions for the province of Quebec, Canada

AbstractMeeting climate change mitigation targets by 2050, as outlined in international pledges, involves determining optimal strategies for forest management, wood supply, the substitution of greenhouse gas‐intensive materials and energy sources, and wood product disposal. Our study quantified the cumulative mitigation potential by 2050 of the forest sector in the province of Quebec, Canada, using several alternative strategies and assessed under what circumstances the sector could contribute to the targets. We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to project ecosystems emissions and sequestration of seven alternative and one baseline (business‐as‐usual [BaU]) forest management scenarios over the 2018–2050 period. Three baskets of wood products were used in a Harvested Wood Products model to predict wood product emissions. The mitigation potential was determined by comparing the cumulative CO2e budget of each alternative scenario to the BaU. The proportion of methane emissions from landfills (RCH4%) and the required displacement factor (RDF) to achieve mitigation benefits were assessed both independently and jointly. The fastest and most efficient way to improve mitigation outcomes of the forest sector of Quebec is to reduce end‐of‐life methane emissions from wood products. By reducing methane emissions, the RDF for achieving mitigation benefits through intensification strategies can be reduced from 1.2–2.3 to 0–0.9 tC/tC, thus reaching the current provincial mean DF threshold (0.9). Both a reduction and an increase in the harvested volume have the potential to provide mitigation benefits with adequate RCH4% and RDF. Increased carbon sequestration in ecosystems, innovations in long‐lived wood products, and optimal substitution in markets offer potential avenues for the forest sector to contribute to mitigation benefits but are subject to significant uncertainties. Methane emission reduction at the end of wood product service life is emerging as a valuable approach to enhance mitigation benefits of the forest sector.

Comparative Analysis and Assessment of Methodologies Applied in the Russian Federation for Calculating Greenhouse Gas Absorption by Forest Ecosystems

The assessment of the forest carbon balance is of great importance for the building of the climate policy of the Russian Federation at both national and international levels. At the same time, the results of such assessments conducted by different scientific groups vary depending on the approaches and methodologies used. This study considers the key systems for assessing the carbon balance of forest ecosystems in the Russian Federation: Integrated Land Information System, IZIS (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria), The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, CBM-CFS (Canada), Regional Forest Carbon Budget Assessment, ROBUL (Russia), the methodology of the All-Russian Research Institute of Forestry and Mechanization of Forestry (Russia). The methodologies are compared with respect to their compliance with the IPCC requirements. The study identifies the individual characteristics of the methodologies and their application, and proposes recommendations for improving the accuracy of carbon balance estimates. The main key differences between the estimates of different scientific groups, include: compliance with the recommendations of IPCC; selection between the methods of “gain−loss” and “stock−difference”; approach to the identification of managed forests; calculation method of forest fire emissions; sources of initial data, and their reliability. The study notes the importance of scientific discussion and the necessity of compliance of the methodologies with international standards, emphasizes the problem of outdated initial data and underestimation of forest fire emissions, regardless of the chosen methodology. In general, the currently used methodology satisfactorily estimates forest carbon balance. It is recommended to improve the estimates based on remote sensing data and the second cycle of the State Forest Inventory (SFI). The implementation of the Strategy of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation with low greenhouse gas emissions until 2050 should be provided not only by changes in the method of calculating the carbon balance, but rather through real forest protection measures. Any significant adjustment to the methodology must be accompanied by an adjustment to national climate goals.

Forest Resources Projection Tools: Comparison of Available Tools and Their Adaptation to Polish Conditions

Over the years, various methods for estimating and projecting forest resources have been developed and are used by countries where the forest sector is important. Therefore, the obligation to report and account for forest resources, including changes in carbon stocks in a forest area, has gained attention. The latest regulations (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry—LULUCF) requires European Union (EU) members to annually report and publish national accounting plans estimating emissions and removals from managed forest areas (Regulation EU 2018/841). The major challenge is to choose and adapt a unique tool for this accounting. At the same time, they need to provide reliable estimates that are recognized by regulators and control authorities. This study focuses on comparing the adaptation of two accounting frameworks: the Operational-Scale Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) and the European Forest Dynamics Model (EFDM). Both tools are based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. It is assumed that the EFDM can provide similar results to the CBM-CFS3, which is already used in Poland. Implementing the EFDM and adapting it to Polish conditions could facilitate forest management decision-making and the preparation of forest policies. The main objective of this study was to compare and validate the accuracy of the results obtained with the EFDM framework. Metrics compared using both tools included growing stock volume, biomass of growing stock expressed in carbon units and age–class distribution over area. The comparison was based on the agreement of EFDM with CBM-CFS3 results. The volume of logging was taken from the EFDM and compared with the values obtained by Statistics Poland. This study also provides a guide for framework parameterization directly from the Polish National Forest Inventory data from the 2010–2015 cycle. Our main findings are that the results of the two models are reasonably comparable (the extent of deviation is acceptable). Moreover, the first implementation of the EFDM showed that it is an easy-to-use open-source program that allows forest managers to implement their own settings according to their needs. This document elucidates the concept of using both frameworks under Polish conditions and provides an impression of their performance for future modelers, students and researchers.

Harvesting Intensity and Aridity Are More Important Than Climate Change in Affecting Future Carbon Stocks of Douglas-Fir Forests

Improved forest management may offer climate mitigation needed to hold warming to below 2°C. However, uncertainties persist about the effects of harvesting intensity on forest carbon sequestration, especially when considering interactions with regional climate and climate change. Here, we investigated the combined effects of harvesting intensity, climatic aridity, and climate change on carbon stocks in Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. (Franco)] stands. We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to simulate the harvest and regrowth of seven Douglas-fir stand types covering a 900 km-long climate gradient across British Columbia, Canada. In particular, we simulated stand growth under three regimes (+17%, −17% and historical growth increment) and used three temperature regimes [historical, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5]. Increasing harvesting intensity led to significant losses in total ecosystem carbon stocks 50 years post-harvest. Specifically, forests that underwent clearcutting were projected to stock about 36% less carbon by 2,069 than forests that were left untouched. Belowground carbon stocks 50 years into the future were less sensitive to harvesting intensity than aboveground carbon stocks and carbon losses were greater in arid interior Douglas-fir forests than in humid, more productive forests. In addition, growth multipliers and decay due to the RCP’s had little effect on total ecosystem carbon, but aboveground carbon declined by 7% (95% confidence interval [−10.98, −1.81]) in the high emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. We call attention to the implementation of low intensity harvesting systems to preserve aboveground forest carbon stocks until we have a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on British Columbia’s forests.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest ecosystem carbon budget in Guizhou: customisation and application of the CBM-CFS3 model for China

BackgroundCountries seeking to mitigate climate change through forests require suitable modelling approaches to predict carbon (C) budget dynamics in forests and their responses to disturbance and management. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a feasible and comprehensive tool for simulating forest C stock dynamics across broad levels, but discrepancies remain to be addressed in China. Taking Guizhou as the case study, we customised the CBM-CFS3 model according to China’s context, including the modification of aboveground biomass C stock algorithm, addition of C budget accounting for bamboo forests, economic forests, and shrub forests, improvement of non-forest land belowground slow dead organic matter (DOM) pool initialisation, and other model settings.ResultsThe adequate linear relationship between the estimated and measured C densities (R2 = 0.967, P < 0.0001, slope = 0.904) in the model validation demonstrated the high accuracy and reliability of our customised model. We further simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest C stocks and disturbance impacts in Guizhou for the period 1990–2016 using our customised model. Results shows that the total ecosystem C stock and C density, and C stocks in biomass, litter, dead wood, and soil in Guizhou increased continuously and significantly, while the soil C density decreased over the whole period, which could be attributed to deforestation history and climate change. The total ecosystem C stock increased from 1220 Tg C in 1990 to 1684 Tg C in 2016 at a rate of 18 Tg C yr−1, with significant enhancement in most areas, especially in the south and northwest. The total decrease in ecosystem C stock and C expenditure caused by disturbances reached 97.6 Tg C and 120.9 Tg C, respectively, but both represented significant decreasing trends owing to the decline of disturbed forest area during 1990–2016. Regeneration logging, deforestation for agriculture, and harvest logging caused the largest C stock decrease and C expenditure, while afforestation and natural expansion of forest contributed the largest increases in C stock.ConclusionsThe forests in Guizhou were a net carbon sink under large-scale afforestation throughout the study period; Our customised CBM-CFS3 model can serve as a more effective and accurate method for estimating forest C stock and disturbance impacts in China and further enlightens model customisation to other areas.

Operational assessment tool for forest carbon dynamics for the United States: a new spatially explicit approach linking the LUCAS and CBM-CFS3 models

BackgroundQuantifying the carbon balance of forested ecosystems has been the subject of intense study involving the development of numerous methodological approaches. Forest inventories, processes-based biogeochemical models, and inversion methods have all been used to estimate the contribution of U.S. forests to the global terrestrial carbon sink. However, estimates have ranged widely, largely based on the approach used, and no single system is appropriate for operational carbon quantification and forecasting. We present estimates obtained using a new spatially explicit modeling framework utilizing a “gain–loss” approach, by linking the LUCAS model of land-use and land-cover change with the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3).ResultsWe estimated forest ecosystems in the conterminous United States stored 52.0 Pg C across all pools. Between 2001 and 2020, carbon storage increased by 2.4 Pg C at an annualized rate of 126 Tg C year−1. Our results broadly agree with other studies using a variety of other methods to estimate the forest carbon sink. Climate variability and change was the primary driver of annual variability in the size of the net carbon sink, while land-use and land-cover change and disturbance were the primary drivers of the magnitude, reducing annual sink strength by 39%. Projections of carbon change under climate scenarios for the western U.S. find diverging estimates of carbon balance depending on the scenario. Under a moderate emissions scenario we estimated a 38% increase in the net sink of carbon, while under a high emissions scenario we estimated a reversal from a net sink to net source.ConclusionsThe new approach provides a fully coupled modeling framework capable of producing spatially explicit estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes under a range of historical and/or future socioeconomic, climate, and land management futures.

Comparison between Empirical Models and the CBM-CFS3 Carbon Budget Model to Predict Carbon Stocks and Yields in Nova Scotia Forests

In response to the global climate crisis, the Nova Scotia Department of Lands and Forestry is using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) and associated methodologies to assess the carbon dynamics of the provincial forestry sector. The CBM-CFS3 bases simulations on a range of studies and national forest inventory plots to predict carbon dynamics using merchantable volume yield curves. Nova Scotia has also maintained thousands of permanent forest sample plots (PSPs) for decades, offering the opportunity to develop empirical, province-specific carbon models. This study used PSP tree measurements and allometric equations to compute plot-level forest carbon models from the PSP dataset and compared their output to that of the CBM-CFS3 model. The PSP-based models were stratified into five forest types and predict the carbon for seven carbon pools as a function of the plot age. Predictions with the PSP- and CBM-CFS3 models were compared to observed PSP data at the plot level and compared against each other at the stand and landscape level. At the plot level, the PSP-derived models predicted carbon closer to the observed data than the CBM-CFS3 model, the extent of over- or under-estimation depending on the carbon pool and forest type. At the stand scale, the CBM-CFS3 model predicted forest carbon to within 3.1–17.6% of the PSP method on average. Differences in predictions between the CBM-CFS3 and PSP models decreased to within 2.4% of the PSP-based models at the landscape level. Thus, the implications of using one method over the other decrease as the prediction scale increases from stand to landscape level, and the implications fluctuate as a function of the forest type and age.

A business case for climate change adaptation by forest industry in central Canada: Presented at the CIF/IFC 2020 National Conference and 112th Annual General Meeting held 15–17 Sept. 2020

Extreme weather events and increasing climatic uncertainty are already affecting the Canadian forest sector. Climate change projections indicate impacts will likely worsen with increasing risk to forest operations and resources. Despite the calls for adaptation, there is little evidence that adaptation is taking place, whether in terms of planning or practices. Much of the forest industry response to date has been ad hoc and reactive. In contrast, Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. (LP) in Swan Valley, MB decided to proactively address climate impacts and risks. A Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) was completed to review past weather-related disruptions, identify their vulnerabilities to both the current weather extremes and to future climates. Through the help of an independent facilitator, the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers’ guidebook was tailored to meet LP’s context and needs. The CVA team identified a wide range of possible adaptation options and created business cases for short-listed adaption priorities that LP is beginning to pursue and implement. The outcomes from this effort show what is necessary to support an adaptation process that is mainstreamed into company decision-making procedures and can be applied more broadly across the Canadian forest sector. One key innovation was the incorporation of business cases into the assessment. Identifying and quantifying the expected benefits helped support vulnerability implementation in several different ways. Furthermore, at a more systemic level, the experience identifies the importance local knowledge plays in advancing adaptation action and how these local efforts can contribute towards supporting more effective climate adaptation action across the entire forest management system. This work also contributes to laying the groundwork for future policy focus, integrating science, and management into forest management systems.

Advancing the application of remote sensing for forest information needs in Canada: Lessons learned from a national collaboration of university, industrial and government stakeholders

The Canadian forest sector requires detailed information regarding the amount and characteristics of the forest resource. To address these needs, inventory systems that spatially quantify timber and other forest related ecosystem services are required, that are accurate, comprehensive and timely. The Assessment of Wood properties using Remote Sensing (AWARE) was a five-year project involving collaboration between seven Canadian universities, and seven forest companies with support provided by provincial and federal forestry agencies and other non-for-profit forestry focused organisations. AWARE provided methods and tools to enhance the characterization of forests at national, landscape and individual tree scales. The project supported 24 post-doctoral fellows, PhD and MSc students that examined the roles that advanced three-dimensional remote sensing technologies can play in the development of accurate forest inventory systems across Canada. In this review we examine the AWARE research project, review research highlights, key outcomes, future research needs, and provide an assessment of successes and challenges the project faced over its five-year lifetime.

A Strategic Forest Management Model for Optimizing Timber Yield and Carbon Sequestration

Abstract Strategic forest management planning models designed to maintain existing carbon stocks and maximize capacity for future sequestration can help identify underused opportunities to increase carbon stocks without diminishing other forest products. This study proposed a carbon stock unit that allows summing up the stocks in the different forest pools even if the decomposition far exceeds the planning horizon. This unit is used to integrate the methods and algorithms from the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) model into a wood supply model. The resulting model could be used to predict changes in carbon stocks, transfers between carbon pools, and greenhouse gas emissions that would result from every forest management activity. We tailored this model to meet different strategies: maximizing carbon storage in the forest, maximizing high-sustained timber yield, and achieving the dual objectives of yield and carbon storage. A range of management scenarios were simulated using the data of a 485,000 hectares mixed-wood forest in Quebec, Canada. Our results demonstrate that, with the reduction in the harvest rates, the increase in the ecosystem carbon storage is insufficient to offset the carbon losses associated with the increase in the harvest rates.

The Effect of Harvesting on National Forest Carbon Sinks up to 2050 Simulated by the CBM-CFS3 Model: A Case Study from Slovenia

With the advent of global warming, forests are becoming an increasingly important carbon sink that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change. An understanding of the carbon dynamics of forests is, therefore, crucial to implement appropriate forest management strategies and to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement with respect to international reporting schemes. One of the most frequently used models for simulating the dynamics of carbon stocks in forests is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). We applied this model in our study to evaluate the effects of harvesting on the carbon sink dynamics in Slovenian forests. Five harvesting scenarios were defined: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) harvesting in line with current forest management plans (PLAN), (3) more frequent natural hazards (HAZ), (4) high harvest (HH) and (5) low harvest (LH). The simulated forest carbon dynamics revealed important differences between the harvesting scenarios. Relative to the base year of 2014, by 2050 the carbon stock in above-ground biomass is projected to increase by 28.4% (LH), 19% (BAU), 10% (PLAN), 6.5% (HAZ) and 1.2% (HH). Slovenian forests can be expected to be a carbon sink until harvesting exceeds approximately 9 million m3 annually, which is close to the calculated total annual volume increase. Our results are also important in terms of Forest Reference Levels (FRL), which will take place in European Union (EU) member states in the period 2021–2025. For Slovenia, the FRL was set to −3270.2 Gg CO2 eq/year, meaning that the total timber harvested should not exceed 6 million m3 annually.

The Canadian model for peatlands (CaMP): A peatland carbon model for national greenhouse gas reporting

A model framework for national greenhouse gas emission and removal estimation for Canadian peatlands (CaMP v2.0) was developed and tested. It provides a module that can work alongside the upland forest Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM) developed to eventually replace the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) as the core model in Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System. The CaMP (v2.0) provides a simple model foundation that can be applied nationally for 11 different peatland categories. It tracks the growth, turnover and decay in annual time steps of different vegetation components (foliage, branches, stems, and roots of trees, shrubs, sedges and mosses). It uses a Q10 relationship to model peat C pool decomposition as a function of mean annual temperature, and models methane flux response to deviations in annual water table depth. The CaMP takes a simple approach to modeling hydrology for large spatial scales by using the nationally-available Canadian Fire Weather Index Drought Code to predict long-term and annual water table depth. The CaMP (v2.0) provides the framework needed to model disturbances but only includes wildfire in this version. Model behavior and sensitivity were assessed, and evaluated against observed flux data. Results suggest that the CaMP (v2.0) provides an appropriate structure for large spatial- and temporal-scale estimation of emissions, owing to the model behaving as expected relative to shifts in environmental variables, and to reasonably small mean observed to modeled residuals. Methane was overestimated by the model on average by 6 g C ha−1y − 1 (n = 53 years of data across 11 peatland sites), and by 8 g C ha−1y − 1 when weighted by site location (n = 12 sites, ≥ 3 years of data per site). The model overestimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by 20 g C ha−1y − 1 (n = 36 years of data across 12 peatland sites), and by 2 g C ha−1y − 1 when weighted by site location (n = 11 sites, ≥ 3 years of data per site), and results demonstrate that inter-site variation is greater than temporal variation across NEE measures. Several aspects were identified as requiring further work to increase explained variation in finer-scale emission estimates. Recommendations include further expanding the existing peatland databases to re-calibrate peat decomposition rates and better parameterize NPP rates by region for certain vegetation layers and peatland types, as well as developing a national annual-scale soil temperature model that could serve to replace the air temperature (Q10) decay relationship currently used in the CaMP (v2.0). Data gaps that were identified include the need for annualized methane flux datasets with appropriate annual-scale meta-data. Future work is required to include permafrost dynamics, as well as additional natural, and anthropogenic disturbances.

Carbon estimation using sampling to correct LiDAR-assisted enhanced forest inventory estimates

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning has been increasingly applied in forest ecosystem surveys. Data from LiDAR describe forest structure and provide attribute information for forest inventory. These attributes can potentially aid in the estimation of biomass and carbon by providing sampling covariates. Therefore, this study explored the accuracy of estimating carbon storage by calibrating LiDAR attributes using list sampling with a ratio estimator. Standing tree carbon and down woody debris carbon were estimated across 10 broad forest types. LiDAR-derived gross total volume was used as a listing factor and big BAF samples to collect field data. Gross total volumes were “corrected” using a ratio estimator. The results show that standing tree carbon was 58.5 Mg C × ha-1 (± 2.9% SE), and dead woody debris carbon 1.8 Mg C × ha-1 (± 7.2% SE). With the exception of one forest type, these estimates were comparable to those derived from the carbon budget model of the Canadian forest sector (CBM-CFS3).

Climate change mitigation in Canada\u2019s forest sector: a spatially explicit case study for two regions

BackgroundWe determine the potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by changes in management practices and wood use for two regions within Canada’s managed forest from 2018 to 2050. Our modeling frameworks include the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, a framework for harvested wood products that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of marginal emission substitution benefits from the changes in use of wood products and bioenergy. Using a spatially explicit forest inventory with 16 ha pixels, we examine mitigation scenarios relating to forest management and wood use: increased harvesting efficiency; residue management for bioenergy; reduced harvest; reduced slashburning, and more longer-lived wood products. The primary reason for the spatially explicit approach at this coarse resolution was to estimate transportation distances associated with delivering harvest residues for heat and/or electricity production for local communities.ResultsResults demonstrated large differences among alternative scenarios, and from alternative assumptions about substitution benefits for fossil fuel-based energy and products which changed scenario rankings. Combining forest management activities with a wood-use scenario that generated more longer-lived products had the highest mitigation potential.ConclusionsThe use of harvest residues to meet local energy demands in place of burning fossil fuels was found to be an effective scenario to reduce GHG emissions, along with scenarios that increased the utilization level for harvest, and increased the longevity of wood products. Substitution benefits from avoiding fossil fuels or emissions-intensive products were dependent on local circumstances for energy demand and fuel mix, and the assumed wood use for products. As projected future demand for biomass use in national GHG mitigation strategies could exceed sustainable biomass supply, analyses such as this can help identify biomass sources that achieve the greatest mitigation benefits.

Long-term time series of annual ecosystem production (1985–2010) derived from tree rings in Douglas-fir stands on Vancouver Island, Canada using a hybrid biometric-modelling approach

We used a hybrid-biometric modelling approach that combines tree-ring based stand reconstruction and the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to estimate past magnitude and inter-annual variation of net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) in plots located within the footprint of an eddy-covariance (EC) installation in a Douglas-fir stand of 1949 origin (DF49 or AmeriFlux CA-Ca1). Stand reconstruction estimated NEP showed excellent correspondence with EC-estimated NEP over the period 1998–2010 (r2 = 0.79, mean difference 24 gC m−2 year−1). Estimates of carbon use efficiency, aboveground NPP, and post-disturbance C dynamics following the harvest of DF49 in 2011 showed discrepancies between modelled estimates and independent data, which were attributed to underestimates of coarse litterfall in previous field studies and to uncertainty in the production, turnover, and post-mortality decay of non merchantable woody biomass in the CBM-CFS3. Despite these issues, the results provide further evidence of the potential use of tree-ring data to expand the availability of long-term estimates of annual ecosystem production and their ability to increase our understanding of forest C dynamics.

The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3): customization of the Archive Index Database for European Union countries

Key messageThe purpose of this report is to increase the transparency of applications of the CBM-CFS3 model by climate-related policy-makers and researchers. The report provides explicit information on the parametrization of a new Archive Index Database used with this model to simulate forest carbon dynamics in 26 EU countries. The database can be accessed athttps://data.europa.eu/89h/jrc-cbm-eu-aidb, primary metadata are available in Kull et al. (2017), and additional metadata are available athttps://metadata-afs.nancy.inra.fr/geonetwork/srv/fre/catalog.search#/metadata/df48155b-973f-4169-a722-100bb6bfc76c.The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) has been adapted, tested, and applied to forests of 26 EU countries over the last 7 years for EU policy making and scientific research. The overall purpose of this exercise is to increase the transparency of how the EU Archive Index Database (EU-AIDB) was parameterized while supporting both the policy making and research communities interested in applying the CBM-CFS3 with ecological parameters specific to the EU context. In addition to preparing model input data reflecting various management and disturbance scenarios for CBM-CFS3 projects, an essential step was to update the original AIDB with information specific to the EU context and create an EU-AIDB. The AIDB is the Microsoft Access database behind the CBM-CFS3 that stores default ecological information and parameters pertaining to the forest ecosystems of a country, among other functions. The EU-AIDB incorporates 1034 spatial units resulting from the intersection of 204 European administrative regions and ecological boundaries representing 35 climatic units. It also contains updated parameters for 192 of the main tree species reported by the National Forest Inventories of each EU country. The release of this database allows CBM-33 CFS3 users in the EU to apply European administrative and ecological units and tree species in forest carbon modeling projects.

Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment.

Assessing the perception of key stakeholders within the forest sector is critical to evaluating their readiness to engage in adapting to climate change. Here, we report the results of the most comprehensive survey carried out in the Canadian forestry sector to date regarding perceptions of climate change. A total of 1158 individuals, representing a wide range of stakeholders across the five most important forestry provinces in Canada, were asked about climate change, its impact on forest ecosystems, and the suitability of current forest management for addressing future impacts. Overall, we found that respondents were more concerned about climate change than the general population. More than 90% of respondents agreed with the anthropogenic origins of climate change, and > 50% considered it a direct threat to their welfare. Political view was the main driver of general beliefs about the causes of climate change and its future consequences, while the province of origin proved to be the best predictor of perceived current impacts on forest ecosystems and its associated risks; and type of stakeholder was the main driver of perceived need for adaptation. Industrial stakeholders were the most skeptical about the anthropogenic cause(s) of climate change (18% disagreed with this statement, compared to an average of 8% in the other stakeholders), its impacts on forest ecosystems (28% for industry vs. 10% for other respondents), and the need for new management practices (18% vs. 7%). Although the degree of awareness and the willingness to implement adaptive practices were high even for the most skeptical groups, our study identified priority sectors or areas for action when designing awareness campaigns. We suggest that the design of a strategic framework for implementing climate adaptation within the Canadian forest sector should focus on the relationship between climate change and changes in disturbance regimes, and above all on the economic consequences of these changes, but it should also take into account the positions shown by each of the actors in each province.

Applying a systems approach to assess carbon emission reductions from climate change mitigation in Mexico’s forest sector

The Paris Agreement of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for a balance of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and removals in the latter part of this century. Mexico indicated in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and its Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy that the land sector will contribute to meeting GHG emission reduction goals. Since 2012, the Mexican government through its National Forestry Commission, with international financial and technical support, has been developing carbon dynamics models to explore climate change mitigation options in the forest sector. Following a systems approach, here we assess the biophysical mitigation potential of forest ecosystems, harvested wood products and their substitution benefits (i.e. the change in emissions resulting from substitution of wood for more emissions-intensive products and fossil fuels), for policy alternatives considered by the Mexican government, such as a net zero deforestation rate and sustainable forest management. We used available analytical frameworks (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector and a harvested wood products model), parameterized with local input data in two contrasting Mexican states. Using information from the National Forest Monitoring System (e.g. forest inventories, remote sensing, disturbance data), we demonstrate that activities aimed at reaching a net-zero deforestation rate can yield significant CO2e mitigation benefits by 2030 and 2050 relative to a baseline scenario (‘business as usual’), but if combined with increasing forest harvest to produce long-lived products and substitute more energy-intensive materials, emissions reductions could also provide other co-benefits (e.g. jobs, illegal logging reduction). We concluded that the relative impact of mitigation activities is locally dependent, suggesting that mitigation strategies should be designed and implemented at sub-national scales. We were also encouraged about the ability of the modeling framework to effectively use Mexico’s data, and showed the need to include multiple sectors and types of collaborators (scientific and policy-maker communities) to design more comprehensive portfolios for climate change mitigation.