Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System Research Articles

Study on Forest Fire Risk Analysis Based on Drought Scenarios

The number of forest fires is increasing worldwide owing to climate change. Forest fires linked to drought are becoming more frequent and severe than ever before. This causes massive damage. However, instead of quantification, studies have been conducted on the relationship between drought and forest fires. Therefore, this study quantitatively analyzed the increase in forest fire risk based on a drought scenario. We defined a 30-year frequency drought scenario for the Gyeongsangbuk-do Province, where the most forest fire damage occurred in 2022, and analyzed the risk of forest fires by calculating the Fire Weather Index (FWI) used in the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). The precipitation in the drought scenario was 581 mm/year that was equivalent to 52% of the average annual precipitation. We noted that the drought Fire Weather Index (DFWI) was approximately 1.6 times greater than the average Fire Weather Index (AFWI). We quantitatively confirmed the extent to which the risk of forest fire increased under the influence of drought. Therefore, measures should be established not only for drought but also for forest fires when a drought occurs.

A case-study of wildland fire management knowledge exchange: the barriers and facilitators in the development and integration of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in Ontario, Canada

Background Among the most successful examples of Knowledge Exchange (KE) between researchers and practitioners in Canadian wildland fire management is the development and integration of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) into operational use. Aims Our aim was to identify key factors for this success. Methods Through a case study, we investigated historical KE of two CFFDRS components in Ontario, Canada. We held semi-structured interviews with principal Canadian Forest Service researchers and Ontario fire management practitioners active in development and implementation of CFFDRS from the late 1960s to 2010s. Key results The importance of both formal and informal facilitators to support KE was emphasised. Conclusion Participants were most likely to associate successful implementation with informal facilitators such as personal relationships, shared field-based experiences, and opportunities for dialogue between researchers and practitioners. Critical to success were the credibility and soft skills of the knowledge brokers, early engagement, and consideration of training needs for end users in the design of products. Implications This identification of factors that facilitated or hindered the development and implementation of CFFDRS can enhance the impact of research that will help wildland fire management deal with its present and future challenges.

Evaluation of IMERG-E Precipitation Estimates for Fire Weather Applications in Alaska

AbstractLarge wildfire outbreaks in Alaska are common from June to August. The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used operationally by Alaskan fire managers to produce statewide fire weather outlooks and forecast guidance near active wildfires. The CFFDRS estimates of fire potential and behavior rely heavily on meteorological observations (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) from the relatively small number of in situ stations across Alaska with precipitation being the most critical parameter. To improve the spatial coverage of precipitation estimates across Alaska for fire weather applications, a multisatellite precipitation algorithm was evaluated during six fire seasons (1 June–31 August 2014–19). Near-real-time daily precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG) algorithm were verified using 322 in situ stations across four Alaskan regions. For each region, empirical cumulative distributions of daily precipitation were obtained from station observations during each summer, and compared to corresponding distributions of interpolated values from IMERG grid points (0.1° × 0.1° grid). The cumulative distributions obtained from IMERG exhibited wet biases relative to the observed distributions for all regions, precipitation amount ranges, and summers. A bias correction approach using regional quantile mapping was developed to mitigate for the IMERG wet bias. The bias-adjusted IMERG daily precipitation estimates were then evaluated and found to produce improved gridded IMERG precipitation estimates. This approach may help to improve situational awareness of wildfire potential across Alaska and be appropriate for other high-latitude regions where there are sufficient in situ precipitation observations to help correct the IMERG precipitation estimates.

The Canadian versus the National Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems tested in Mediterranean forests fire Crete, Greece

The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) and the National Forest Fire Danger Rating System (NFFDRS) were exercised under the Mediterranean forest type conditions of Crete Island, Greece in 2008–2009. The CFFDRS shows a high association between the assessed values of the duff moisture content on one hand and the Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Duff Moisture Code on the other hand. During the designated fire seasons, there was an insignificant association between the Fire Weather Index and the wild forest fires which are contrary associated with wildfire occurrences. Meanwhile, the NFFDRS showed monitoring capabilities but with the insufficient prediction of the daily fire danger in the Mediterranean forests. During the tested forest fire seasons, there was an unstable association between the burnt area and the fire occurrences. Consequently, there was no significant correlation between the CFFDRS and the litter soil content. Although, CFFDRS has a higher prediction accuracy of moisture content of some shallow roots annual plants within the studied area. The findings of the current research emphasized that there is no single system that is adequate enough for both soil moisture content and the annuals moisture content simultaneously.

A Comparison of Fire Weather Indices with MODIS Fire Days for the Natural Regions of Alaska

Research Highlights: Flammability of wildland fuels is a key factor influencing risk-based decisions related to preparedness, response, and safety in Alaska. However, without effective measures of current and expected flammability, the expected likelihood of active and problematic wildfires in the future is difficult to assess and prepare for. This study evaluates the effectiveness of diverse indices to capture high-risk fires. Indicators of drought and atmospheric drivers are assessed along with the operational Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Background and Objectives: In this study, 13 different indicators of atmospheric conditions, fuel moisture, and flammability are compared to determine how effective each is at identifying thresholds and trends for significant wildfire activity. Materials and Methods: Flammability indices are compared with remote sensing characterizations that identify where and when fire activity has occurred. Results: Among these flammability indicators, conventional tools calibrated to wildfire thresholds (Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and Buildup Index (BUI)), as well as measures of atmospheric forcing (Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD)), performed best at representing the conditions favoring initiation and size of significant wildfire events. Conventional assessments of seasonal severity and overall landscape flammability using DMC and BUI can be continued with confidence. Fire models that incorporate BUI in overall fire potential and fire behavior assessments are likely to produce effective results throughout boreal landscapes in Alaska. One novel result is the effectiveness of VPD throughout the state, making it a potential alternative to FFMC among the short-lag/1-day indices. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the societal value of research that joins new academic research results with operational needs. Developing the framework to do this more effectively will bring science to action with a shorter lag time, which is critical as we face growing challenges from a changing climate.

Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1st May–31st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level.

Cffdrs: an R package for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System

IntroductionThe Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is a globally known wildland fire risk assessment system, and two major components, the fire weather index system and the fire behavior prediction system, have been extensively used both nationally and internationally to aid operational wildland fire decision making.MethodsIn this paper, we present an overview of an R package cffdrs, which is developed to calculate components of the CFFDRS, and highlight some of its functionality. In particular, we demonstrate how these functions could be used for large data analysis.Results and DiscussionWith this cffdrs package, we provide a portal for not only a collection of R functions dealing with all available components in CFFDRS but also a platform for various additional developments that are useful for the understanding of fire occurrence and behavior. This is the first time that all relevant CFFDRS methods are incorporated into the same platform, which can be accessed by both the management and research communities.

Modeling Wildfire Spread in Mountain Pine Beetle-Affected Forest Stands, British Columbia, Canada

AbstractThe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins; MPB) has killed lodgepole pines (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) across 20 million hectares of central British Columbia, Canada, since the late 1990s, challenging land managers as well as fire management personnel. Although recent studies have used models to simulate how MPB might affect fire spread, very little fire behaviour has been documented in MPB-affected stands. We documented rate of spread (ROS) in experimental fires and wildfires in recent MPB-killed stands in British Columbia using interpretations of oblique photographs, airborne measurements of wildfire spread, and experimental burns. Fire spread observations were used to develop ROS models following the empirical approach of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Sixteen fire runs were examined that occurred in mature MPB-affected pine stands from 1 to 5 years since peak attack. Observations of ROS were associated with corresponding weather measurements from nearby weather stations and non-linear regression curves were fit to paired ROS and Initial Spread Index (ISI) data according to CFFDRS convention. Although the dataset is less robust than a strictly experimental approach, fires had faster spread and more crown fire than predicted, with a linear average of 2.7 times higher ROS in best fit models than expected for unaffected pine. The most likely crown fire initiation threshold (P = 0.5) was ISI 5.5. Fire intensity is likely higher in early post-MPB stands due to increased ROS, lower crowning thresholds, and greater consumption of fine dead branches. Further studies on fire behaviour in MPB-affected stands are needed, but the present findings can help reduce uncertainty in fire and land management decisions in the interim.

Spatial-temporal distribution of forest fires and fire weather index calculation from 2000 to 2009 in China

This paper describes the forest fire dynamics in the city of Sanming in Fujian province, China, from 2000 to 2009 with a view to understand the number of fires and burned areas in different counties. It also includes the spatial-temporal distribution of fires and application of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Daily forest fire data was provided by the Department of Wildfire Prevention of Sanming Forestry Bureau. FWI calculator v.7.0.2.76 was used in this study for analysing the weather parameter data. The results showed that a total of 818 fires and burned areas of 8721.16 ha were found during the study period of 10 years. However, the highest and lowest forest fires were found in Youxi county and Sanming district, respectively. Most of the fires with large burned areas occurred at 2 p.m. Moreover, occurrences of fires were found the highest and lowest in March and June, respectively. Based on FWI calculation, the highest danger rating value was found in March, 2009. This study proposes that it would be possible to manage regular forest fire occurrences through the application of CFFDRS. Finally, to plan the fire prevention and management in southern China and other tropical countries, this system has a great opportunity for further implementations.  

Economic evaluation of research to improve the Canadian forest fire danger rating system

Canada is a largely forested country, and the economic, environmental, and social effects of the country’s wildland fire management are of great importance from an industry and public policy perspective. Investment in research can improve the efficiency of wildland fire management and has an important role in the decisionmaking process. There is a long history of research investment in Canada related to wildland fire management, including the development of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). To demonstrate the range of net benefits of the CFFDRS to Canadian society, a cost-benefit study was conducted on research related to enhancing the current system. The benefits of research were measured as the difference in economic returns with additional investment in research, primarily achieved through reduction in damages to timber resources and savings in suppression expenditure (the “with-research scenario”) and those that would have resulted with no changes to the current CFFDRS (the “without-research scenario”). A triangular probability distribution was used to address uncertainty and the results indicated high levels of net economic benefit if the CFFDRS were to be enhanced by additional research investment, with “most likely” estimates of net present value ranging from $30 million to $1.5 billion ($Cdn).

Mapping fuel moisture codes using MODIS images and the Getis statistic over western Canada grasslands

In Canada, fire danger is predicted by the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). One of its subsystems is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which has two slow-drying fuel moisture codes: the drought code (DC) and the duff moisture code (DMC). Both codes are used in this study as a surrogate of dead fuel moisture. We evaluate the capability of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) observations to map DC and DMC. A comparison was made between 16-day composite MODIS images acquired in the 2000 to 2004 fire seasons over Grasslands National Park of Canada (GNPC), Saskatchewan, Canada and DC and DMC data interpolated from weather station records. Overall, spectral variables and DC and DMC exhibited clear seasonal trends, and were therefore influenced more by temporal factors than by land cover factors. Data were then grouped into temporal categories, by year and seasons, for stepwise multiple regression calculations. We note that the use of shortwave infrared (SWIR)-based variables slightly improved the performances of both DC and DMC models. Spectrally derived DC and DMC data showed improved spatial resolution of mapping drought over pre-burned areas compared to broadly interpolated weather station-based estimations. The spectral estimation was improved by applying the Getis statistic (Gi *) to the resulting maps, showing the potential of combining the Gi * statistic and MODIS data in predicting fuel moisture codes in relationship to fire occurrence.

Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean environment

AbstractThe Fire Weather Index module of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) was evaluated during two consecutive fire seasons in the Mediterranean environment of Crete, Greece. The Duff Moisture Code (DMC), the Drought Code (DC), the Buildup Index (BUI) and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) were highly correlated to fire occurrence but only moderately to area burned. Logistic regression was applied in order to classify the FWI values into fire danger classes appropriate for the Mediterranean environments, as follows: 0–38 Low, 39–48 Moderate, 49–59 High, > 60 Extreme. The new classification was necessary because the existing Canadian fire danger classes were found inapt for the dry and extremely fire prone eastern Mediterranean climate of Crete. After the modification, the fluctuation of the FWI values predicted more successfully the days of high fire risk, as proved by the actual fire occurrence. High correlation was found between measured litter (L layer) moisture values and those predicted by the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC). The use of an equilibrium duff moisture content value lower than 20% in Mediterranean environments, would probably improve the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) predictions. The Drought Code (DC) was poorly correlated to the upper soil moisture content. Overall, the FWI demonstrated several aptitudes related to its potential use as a meteorological fire danger rating index in Mediterranean regions. However, long–term studies are necessary to determine the precise range of each fire danger class according to fire occurrence data. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Comparison of Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and National Fire Danger Rating System fire indices derived from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data for the June 2005 Interior Alaska wildfires

Standard indices of the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) are calculated from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts and observations in Interior Alaska for June 2005. Fire indices determined from WRF results of all forecast-leads and the ensemble do not differ statistically significantly from those calculated from observations. WRF-derived CFFDRS and NFDRS fire indices capture the temporal evolution of fire indices calculated from observations acceptably. Sensitivity to errors in meteorological forecasts differs for the various fire indices. Failure to predict a peak does not necessarily occur at the same time for the various indices within and/or among the two systems. Predicted buildup-index and spread component capture trends, the time of peaks and minima most reliably. Overall for the CFFDRS the lowest relative errors exist for fine fuel moisture content followed by buildup-index while for the NFDRS the lowest relative errors occur for energy release component followed by burning index. When fire indices are calculated from meteorological forecasts predicting fire risk and identifying the right site becomes more difficult as fire risk increases. Fire risk forecast skill depends on meteorological forecast-lead slightly for energy release rate and ignition component and notably for all CFFDRS-indices except fine fuel moisture content.

Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications

Understanding and being able to predict forest fire occurrence, fire growth and fire intensity are important aspects of forest fire management. In Canada fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to help predict these elements of forest fire activity. In this paper a review of the CFFDRS is presented with the main focus on understanding and interpreting Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System outputs. The need to interpret the outputs of the FWI System with consideration to regional differences is emphasized and examples are shown of how the relationship between actual fuel moisture and the FWI System’s moisture codes vary from region to region. Examples are then shown of the relationship between fuel moisture and fire occurrence for both human- and lightning-caused fire for regions with different forest composition. The relationship between rate of spread, fuel consumption and the relative fire behaviour indices of the FWI System for different forest types is also discussed. The outputs of the CFFDRS are used every day across Canada by fire managers in every district, regional and provincial fire management office. The purpose of this review is to provide modellers with an understanding of this system and how its outputs can be interpreted. It is hoped that this review will expose statistical modellers and other researchers to some of the models used currently in forest fire management and encourage further research and development of models useful for understanding and managing forest fire activity.

Using cumulative NOAA-AVHRR spectral indices for estimating fire danger codes in northern boreal forests

In Canada, fire danger is rated by the Canadian forest fire danger rating system (CFFDRS). One of its components is the fire weather index (FWI) system, which has among others the drought code (DC). DC is used here as a surrogate of dead forest fuel moisture. DC values were computed from weather data acquired between 1993 and 1999 and compared to 10-day composite NOAA-AVHRR images acquired over Canadian northern boreal forests. They were yearly correlated with single compositing period and cumulative NDVI and surface temperature (ST) NOAA-AVHRR data. Correlations with cumulative spectral variables were stronger than with single compositing period variables and the best correlations occurred for the spring compositing periods (R between 0.57 and 0.80). Spring DC models using both single compositing period and cumulative spectral variables were established. Surface temperature-based indices were more often used in the models than NDVI-based indices. The models were stronger for dry or normal years than for wet years. Limitations and possible improvements of the models are discussed.

Fine-resolution mapping of wildfire fuel types for Canada: Fuzzy logic modeling for an Alberta pilot area

The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used daily across Canada for evaluating forest fire danger. Fuel-type information is one of the inputs required by the models used in the CFFDRS. In this project, three fuel-type maps with a 25 m resolution were produced for a pilot study area located in Alberta using land cover only; land cover and biomass; and, land cover, biomass and leaf area index data derived from satellite imagery. The relationships between inputs and fuel types were determined mainly by the opinions of forest fire scientists and incorporated into a computer program using fuzzy set methodology. Not all the CFFDRS fuel types could be distinguished using these inputs; three of the coniferous types had to be grouped into one common fuel type. Overall accuracy was between 74 and 83% based on ground-truth comparisons. The most accurate map resulted from land cover and biomass data. Detailed accuracy assessment indicated that the overall accuracy increased up to 86% if ambiguous fuel type identification was considered. No combination of inputs was able to define a fuel type with absolute certainty, which is a reflection of differing expert opinions and the small number of inputs used to produce the maps.

Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience.

The present paper reviews the development of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) and its implementation in Canada and elsewhere, and suggests how this experience can be applied in developing fire danger rating systems in other forest or wildland environments. Experience with the CFFDRS suggests that four key scientific, technological, and human elements need to be developed and integrated in a national forest fire danger rating system. First among these is a sustained program of scientific research to develop a system based on relationships between fire weather, fuels, and topography, and fire occurrence, behavior, and impact appropriate to the fire environment. Development of a reliable technical infrastructure to gather, process, and archive fire weather data and to disseminate fire weather forecasts, fire danger information, and fire behavior predictions within operational agencies is also important. Technology transfer and training in the use of fire danger information in fire operations are necessary, as are cooperation and communication between fire management agencies to share resources and set common standards for information, resources, and training. These elements must be appropriate to the needs and capabilities of fire managers, and must evolve as fire management objectives change. Fire danger systems are a form of media; system developers should be careful not to overemphasize scientific and technological elements at the expense of human and institutional factors. Effective fire danger systems are readily assimilated by and influence the organizational culture, which in turn influences the development of new technologies. Most importantly, common vision and a sense of common cause among fire scientists and fire managers are needed for successful implementation of a fire danger rating system.

Information systems in support of wildland fire management decision making in Canada

This paper provides an overview of four national forest fire management information systems currently used in Canada. The Canadian forest fire danger rating system (CFFDRS) is a non-spatial system, which provides the science framework for fire danger rating in Canada. The spatial fire management system (sFMS) is a geographic information system based fire management information system that implements two core subsystems of the CFFDRS, along with other models and systems. The sFMS is the spatial engine that has been used to implement both of Canada's national forest fire management information systems, the Canadian wildland fire information system (CWFIS) and the fire monitoring, mapping and modeling system (Fire M3). The CWFIS is Canada's national fire management information system; it presents daily information on fire weather, fire behavior potential and selected upper atmospheric conditions. Fire M3 integrates the use of satellite technology for monitoring and mapping large fire occurrence in Canada. Fire M3 also incorporates information from CWFIS to model the impacts of large forest fires based on fire weather conditions and potential fire behavior.

Fire Danger Monitoring Using ERS-1 SAR Images in the Case of Northern Boreal Forests

Research was carried out to assess the potential of imaging radar systems for monitoring forest fire danger. In Canada, daily forest fire danger ratings are generated by the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), based on estimates of fire weather indices (FWI) and meas- ured foliar moisture content (FMC). To evaluate the potential of imaging radar, an experiment was conducted using test sites consisting of jack pine, black spruce and white spruce stands located in the MacKenzie river basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. Radar image intensity values from ERS-1 SAR imagery collected over these stands in 1994 were compared to FWI indices and FMC data. FWI indices were calculated using data from local weather stations. Seasonal trends in radar backscatter (σ 0 ) were shown to correlate with temperature and precipitation. Significant relationships were found between σ 0 and FWI codes and indices, particularly in the case of the black spruce stands, with slow- drying fuels, like duff moisture code (DMC), drought code (DC), and build-up index (BUI). Rates of changes in σ 0 were related to rates of changes in FMC, particularly in the case of the jack pine stands for old FMC and in the case of white spruce stands for composite FMC.

Monitoring fire danger of northern boreal forests with NOAA-AVHRR NDVI images

The objective of this study was to assess the potential ofremote sensing from satellites for monitoring forest e re danger in northern Canadian boreal forests. In Canada, daily forest e re danger is rated by the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). One of its components is the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system. FWI variables were computed from weather records of the 1994 e re season. They were correlated to NDVI and cumulative NDVI (SNDVI) data computed from NOAA-AVHRR red and near-infrared bands in the case of coniferous stands located in the Northwest Territories, Canada. NDVI and SNDVI data were more strongly correlated to FWI variables corresponding to slow-drying fuels, i.e. duV moisture code (DMC), drought code (DC) and buildup index (BUI), than to those related to fast-drying fuels, i.e. e ne fuel moisture code (FFMC) and e re weather index (FWI). The correlations between spectral data and FWI variables were explained by the fact that both kinds of variables have a similar seasonal variation, but not by an eventual direct relationship between NDVI and fuel moisture conditions, since NDVI is more directly related to chlorophyllian activity of the vegetation than to droughtness conditions.