Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications

Abstract

Understanding and being able to predict forest fire occurrence, fire growth and fire intensity are important aspects of forest fire management. In Canada fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to help predict these elements of forest fire activity. In this paper a review of the CFFDRS is presented with the main focus on understanding and interpreting Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System outputs. The need to interpret the outputs of the FWI System with consideration to regional differences is emphasized and examples are shown of how the relationship between actual fuel moisture and the FWI System’s moisture codes vary from region to region. Examples are then shown of the relationship between fuel moisture and fire occurrence for both human- and lightning-caused fire for regions with different forest composition. The relationship between rate of spread, fuel consumption and the relative fire behaviour indices of the FWI System for different forest types is also discussed. The outputs of the CFFDRS are used every day across Canada by fire managers in every district, regional and provincial fire management office. The purpose of this review is to provide modellers with an understanding of this system and how its outputs can be interpreted. It is hoped that this review will expose statistical modellers and other researchers to some of the models used currently in forest fire management and encourage further research and development of models useful for understanding and managing forest fire activity.