Canadian Climate Research Articles

GHG Registries: Participation and Performance Under the Canadian Voluntary Climate Challenge Program

Between 1994 and 2004, the Voluntary Challenge and Registry (VCR) played an important role in Canadian climate change policy. In this paper, we examine the decision of firms to participate in the VCR, the extent of their involvement, and then ask if greenhouse gas emissions are related to past VCR participation. As an information provision program, we find evidence that firms may participate in VCR to signal their environmental responsibility to regulators and to some extent investors, but not to consumers. We also find that past involvement in the VCR is a strong and significant determinant of current involvement in the registry. Greenhouse gas emissions reported to the Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program in 2004, however, do not appear to be different between VCR reporters and non-reporters. GHG emissions are observed to be significantly lower among firms that are smaller, emit fewer toxic releases, use more renewable energy sources, are intermediate good producers, and are located in Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba.

Generating information required in climate change studies in Swaziland

The science behind the generation of information required to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources in Swaziland is presented. Three general circulation models (GCMs) namely: Canadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and United Kingdom Transient Resilient (UKTR) were found appropriate for use to project the temperature and precipitation changes for Swaziland for year 2075 for low, medium and high climate change scenarios and for dry, average and wet year conditions.

Budget cuts end Canadian climate research lab

Budget cuts end Canadian climate research lab Budget cuts end Canadian climate research lab

Extratropical Cyclones and Precipitation within the Canadian Archipelago during the Cold Season

Extratropical cyclones produce much of the precipitation over the Arctic, but the details of this cause-effect relationship are not well documented. In this study, we examined extratropical cyclones within the Canadian Archipelago, a subregion of the Arctic, over the period 1948– 97. Using data from the Historical Canadian Climate Data (HCCD), the U.S. National Climate Center (UNCC), and the European Meteorological Bulletin (EMB), we assessed the relationship between extratropical cyclones and cold-season snowfall (October–April) for 10 events at each of 11 surface stations within the region. These events were relatively brief (72 h or less), but resulted in precipitation totals that exceeded the average monthly amount. At each station, within the 10 most extreme precipitation months of the 50-year study period, we often found a single event that accounted for approximately one-third of the total snowfall in that month. For sites located in the southeastern Archipelago, eventrelated storms typically approached from the southeast, whereas southwestern sites were affected by southwesterly storms, and northwestern sites, by northwesterly storms. In many cases, cyclone dissipation occurred within 24 h of the event’s conclusion. Precipitation analyses in this study were considerably affected by snowfall undercatchment; the magnitude of this effect needs further examination in future studies. However, the identification of extreme events and related storm tracks appears to be relatively unaffected by the lack of corrected precipitation data.

Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada

The structure and function of the boreal forest are significantly influenced by forest fires. The ignition and growth of fires depend quite strongly on weather; thus, climate change can be expected to have a considerable impact on forest fire activity and hence the structure of the boreal forest. Forest fire occurrence is an extremely important element of fire activity as it defines the load on suppression resources a fire management agency will face. We used two general circulation models (GCMs) to develop projections of future fire occurrence across Canada. While fire numbers are projected to increase across all forested regions studied, the relative increase in number of fires varies regionally. Overall across Canada, our results from the Canadian Climate Centre GCM scenarios suggest an increase in fire occurrence of 25% by 2030 and 75% by the end of the 21st century. Results projected from fire climate scenarios derived from the Hadley Centre GCM suggest fire occurrence will increase by 140% by the end of this century. These general increases in fire occurrence across Canada agree with other regional and national studies of the impacts of climate change on fire activity. Thus, in the absence of large changes to current climatic trends, significant fire regime induced changes in the boreal forest ecosystem are likely.

The Limits and Opportunities of Networks: Municipalities and Canadian Climate Change Policy

AbstractResearch on climate change policy and politics has become increasingly focused on the actions and influence of subnational governments. In North America, this attention has been particularly focused on why subnational governments have taken action in the absence of national leadership, what effect action might have on future national climate policy, and whether the collective action of networks of municipal governments are reshaping and challenging the character of national and global climate governance. This paper examines Canadian municipal climate in light of the absence of a comprehensive and effective climate national strategy. The paper considers various reasons why local governments in Canada have not been central players in national plans, and why their actions have not been more influential nationally. The paper argues that the potential influence of Canadian municipalities on national climate policy is weak, given the loose nature of the network and the long‐held structural view that municipalities are not significant units of political analysis in national political and policy debates. The paper concludes by considering the constraints and opportunities of subnational climate networks and municipal network analysis.

Connecting masculinities and physical activity among senior South Asian Canadian immigrant men

Senior South Asian (SA) men experience many health challenges which may be exacerbated by immigration. However, little is known about the health practices of this subgroup of men, including how they conceptualize connections between exercise, health and illness. An ethnographic qualitative study including fieldwork and participant observations at South Asian men's groups (SAMGs) based in British Columbia (BC), Canada and individual interviews with 36 attendees (group leaders and non-leader group members) were conducted to better understand how masculinity (as it intersects with culture, social class and age) informs and influences men's physical activity. The findings indicated that few men linked exercise with specific illnesses; however, age-induced musculoskeletal impairment and a cold, wet Canadian climate were the main restrictors of men's physical activity. Traditional SA cultures and in some cases economic hardship influenced men's preference for walking to socially connect with other men, while strenuous activity was detailed in nostalgic ways as a previously used tool for securing paid labor. The results indicate varying masculine identities, roles and relations in how men conceptualized and embodied physical activity, some of which were incongruent with Western ideals about men and exercise. Collectivism was a prevailing SA cultural norm for participants, which should be thoughtfully considered in the design and distribution of exercise-based health promotion programs targeted to senior SA Canadian immigrant men.

Carbon Taxation in British Columbia

Among alternative public policies to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), environmental taxation represents a promising but often under-utilized approach-particularly in North America where the introduction of any new tax involves enormous political challenges. In Canada, however, British Columbia became the first North American jurisdiction to implement a consumption-based environmental tax specifically designed to reduce GHG emissions when BC's provincial government enacted a carbon tax effective July 1, 2008. This paper provides a general overview and initial evaluation of British Columbia's carbon tax, explaining the background to the announcement of the tax in the Provincial Government's 2008 Budget, the structure of the legislation and its relation to other provincial initiatives to address climate change, and the possible implications of the tax for climate change policy in Canada. Part I provides a short background to the tax, summarizing the evolution of Canadian climate change policies up to the announcement of the tax in February 2008. Part II explains the structure of the carbon tax and its relation to other provincial climate change policies, reviewing the Provincial Budget and the specific tax implementing legislation. Part III discusses the implications of the tax for climate change policy in Canada, considering public reaction to the tax in British Columbia and subsequent developments at the federal level.

Climate Impacts on Northern Canada: Introduction

There is significant evidence that northern Canada's climate has already undergone substantial change. These changes have meant significant impacts for physical, natural and human systems in Canada's North. Climate models suggest that such trends will continue into the future, and therefore shifts in Arctic systems are expected for some time to come. This introductory paper is the first in a series published in two issues of Ambio presenting work conducted for northern chapters of two recent Canadian national climate science assessment initiatives, From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 and Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity. Collectively, these assessments involved the work of 24 scientists with expertise in a variety of disciplines and regions in the Canadian North. These assessment processes adopted aspects of a vulnerability approach to climate assessment, primarily through a review of existing and projected exposures and elements of adaptive capacity based on existing literature. In so doing, they have contributed towards a more comprehensive understanding of climate impacts and adaptations across the northern regions of the country. This paper provides an overview and introduction to the series of papers contained in the two issues of Ambio.

Scenario changes in the climatology of winter midlatitude cyclone activity over eastern North America and the Northwest Atlantic

The present study explores how midlatitude winter cyclone activity can be modified under warming‐induced conditions due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. We performed simulations with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM version 3.5) implemented on a domain that covers the Northwest Atlantic and eastern North America. These simulations are driven by control conditions (1975–1994) and high‐CO2 scenario conditions (2040–2059) suggested by the Canadian Climate Centre model, CGCM2 (Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model), following the IPCC IS92a scenario. Comparisons between model simulations for the control period (1975–1994) and North America Regional analysis (NARR) suggest that both CGCM2 and CRCM reliably reproduce the overall NARR patterns of sea level pressure, tropospheric baroclinicity and Atlantic storm tracks. However, compared to CGCM2 results, CRCM offers an improvement in simulations of the most intense cyclones. Although both models underestimate the track density of intense cyclones, the CGCM2 underestimates are larger than those of CRCM. Under the high‐CO2 climate change scenario, the CRCM and CGCM2 model simulations show similar changes in sea level pressure, surface temperature, and total track density of midlatitude winter cyclones. Although we can see the northwest shift of the dominant Atlantic storm track, it is not statistically significant. Moreover, simulations from both models show a decrease in the total cyclone track density along the Canadian east coast; the decrease is more robust in CRCM simulations than in CGCM2 results. For intense cyclones, CRCM simulations show a slight decrease in the track density, while no such change is found in CGCM2 simulations.

Simulating monthly streamflow for the Upper Changjiang, China, under climatic change scenarios / Simulation du débit mensuel du Haut Changjiang, en Chine, sous des scénarios de changement climatique

The potential effect of climatic change on the flow of the Upper Changjiang (or Yangtze River) above the Three Gorges, China, was simulated with the SLURP hydrological model, using ERA40 data from 1961–1990 to simulate the baseline streamflow, and employing scenario temperature and precipitation changes depicted by two global climate models: the Hadley Centre and the Canadian climate model (CCCma) for both the B2 scenario (moderate emission of greenhouse gases) and the A2 scenario (more intense emission), for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 time horizons. In general, temperature and precipitation changes are more pronounced for the latter than for the former period. Winter low flows will not change but summer high flow may be augmented by increased precipitation. By mid-century, temperature increase will reduce streamflow according to CCCma, but not so under the Hadley Centre scenario. By the end of the century, precipitation will be great enough to overcome the influence of warming to raise discharge from most parts of the basin. The Min and the Jinsha rivers warrant much attention, the former because of its large flow contribution and the latter because of its sensitivity to climate forcing.

Fuzzy set approach to condition assessments of novel sustainable pavements in the Canadian climate

Since the use of pervious concrete pavement structures (PCPSs) is essentially still in the trial stage in Canada, long-term and quantitative pavement condition data are not available. The existing approaches applied to assess pervious concrete pavement structure (PCPS) conditions are ad hoc and suffer from methodological limitations. A fuzzy set technique is proposed herein as an efficient tool for dealing with qualitative and incomplete pavement condition data on distress types, severities, densities, and weighting factors. Using this method, a comprehensive fuzzy condition index was developed based on Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) methodology and using fuzzy pavement condition data. This fuzzy condition index was converted to a single value that allowed for comparisons of pavement conditions using several ranking techniques. A case study of 24 PCPS sites was utilized to demonstrate how the fuzzy representations of the condition index compared with associated single values. It is shown that this approach can effectively provide extensive condition indices for PCPSs and rank them accordingly, using only limited and imprecise pavement condition data.

Political Parties and Canadian Climate Change Policy

Climate change arose on the international agenda in the late 1980s. It was a period of international greening and Canada joined the climate change bandwagon. Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was even lauded as an international leader on the issue. In 2002 Canada, under the leadership of Jean Chretien, ratified the Kyoto protocol, in spite ofthe absence ofthe United States from the agreement and in the face of provincial opposition. While this may have been regarded as a noble gesture, it is crucial to recall that Canada was then and is now nowhere near its Kyoto emissions targets. Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper has acknowledged that Canada will not meet its Kyoto target and has crafted policies that do little to help us reach it. In 20 years, Canada has done little to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, and from that vantage point one must question whether parties matter in the development and implementation of Canadian climate change policy.This article considers a series of snapshots of Canadian climate change policy: climate change under the Mulroney Conservatives; the Liberals and the Kyoto protocol; the Kyoto ratification debate; the period under Prime Minister Paul Martin; and finally the arrival of the Harper Conservatives. The article finds that in terms of ability or willingness to engage in genuine emissions reductions, party difference matters very little. Similarly, party difference does not really help us understand continuity in terms of Canadian diplomatic behaviour, which has been markedly self-interested over the years. Yet parties do matter in terms of composition and style; and style, when merged with substance, may signal longer-term changes to Canadian foreign policy.CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE MULRONEY PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVESIn 1988, the Toronto conference, formally known as the conference on the Changing atmosphere: Implications for global security was held. As hosts of this meeting, Canadian scientists and politicians were front and centre. Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Mulroney called for a law of the atmosphere and told delegates, all belong to one human family, and we are all in this together.1 As a result of their efforts, Canada, Mulroney, and the experts housed in Environment Canada were acknowledged as early leaders on the issue of climate change.In spite of the creative leadership of Canadian bureaucrats and scientists in the agenda-setting phase of the climate change issue, political commitment and leadership were tentative at best. Liberal environment critic Paul Martin declared that Progressive Conservative climate change policy was not leading, and in fact lagged behind that of such progressive states as those in Scandinavia. In addition, the conference consensus was dismissed by key Canadian government officials who argued that, given that it was not a ministerial conference, statements by elected Canadian officials, such as the prime minister, were not policy statements but rather the views of individuals.2 Shortly after the Toronto conference, the prime minister announced further subsidies to the Hibernia project - actions that contradicted the concern expressed for climate change. Domestically, the Mulroney government produced the first ever in 1990. The green plan wrapped neoliberal economic tools in a green veneer. Consistent with what would become the standard Canadian policy tools to address climate change, the green plan focused on information provision and encouraging voluntary actions.3 These tools would prove ineffective in achieving Canadian emissions reductions. Finally, Environment Canada became marginalized in the policy process as it was regarded as too concerned with the environment, rather than the effective or pragmatic responses acceptable to government'^ The marginalization of Environment Canada signalled the privileging of economics over the environment - a trend that was apparent throughout the periods under examination. …

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

AbstractFire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude × longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long‐term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics.

Modeling the effects of fire and climate change on carbon and nitrogen storage in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands

AbstractThe interaction between disturbance and climate change and resultant effects on ecosystem carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes are poorly understood. Here, we model (using CENTURY version 4.5) how climate change may affect C and N fluxes among mature and regenerating lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Wats.) stands that vary in postfire tree density following stand‐replacing fire. Both young (postfire) and mature stands had elevated forest production and net N mineralization under future climate scenarios relative to current climate. Forest production increased 25% [Hadley (HAD)] to 36% [Canadian Climate Center (CCC)], compared with 2% under current climate, among stands that varied in stand age and postfire density. Net N mineralization increased under both climate scenarios, e.g., +19% to 37% (HAD) and +11% to 23% (CCC), with greatest increases for young stands with sparse tree regeneration. By 2100, total ecosystem carbon (live+dead+soils) in mature stands was higher than prefire levels, e.g., +16% to 19% (HAD) and +24% to 28% (CCC). For stands regenerating following fire in 1988, total C storage was 0–9% higher under the CCC climate model, but 5–6% lower under the HAD model and 20–37% lower under the Control. These patterns, which reflect variation in stand age, postfire tree density, and climate model, suggest that although there were strong positive responses of lodgepole pine productivity to future changes in climate, C flux over the next century will reflect complex relationships between climate, age structure, and disturbance‐recovery patterns of the landscape.

Pervious Concrete Pavement

Pervious concrete pavement is an environmentally friendly, sustainable paving material for low-volume, low-speed applications. Pervious concrete has been used in warm climates extensively, but its use in freeze–thaw climates has been limited. The Centre for Pavement and Transportation Technology at the University of Waterloo and the Cement Association of Canada, Portland Cement Association, and local Canadian ready-mix producers have partnered to carry out a Canada-wide study to evaluate the performance of pervious concrete. Three test sections have been constructed to date with more planned for the future. The current test sections are located in southern Ontario and southern British Columbia. They are designed to represent all aspects of pervious concrete including but not limited to materials, design mixtures, structural design, potential applications, fresh and cured properties, permeability, environmental strain, filtration capabilities, and maintenance needs and options. A surface distress evaluation form has been developed with information gathered from two of the test areas as well as a literature review. Two test areas have experienced a winter season and showed minimal surface distresses and maintained permeability. Permeability testing is carried out regularly to track changes as well as to evaluate effects of winter maintenance. Instrumentation has been installed at the test areas to track moisture movement throughout the structure, strain caused by environmental conditions, and the filtering capabilities of pervious concrete. The results of this project will be instrumental in understanding the performance and behavior of pervious concrete in the Canadian climate.

Unwilling internationalism or strategic internationalism? Canadian climate policy under the conservative government

Unwilling internationalism or strategic internationalism? Canadian climate policy under the conservative government

Analysis of a combined photovoltaic–geothermal gas-fired absorption heat pump system in a Canadian climate

This study examines the technical feasibility of using a geothermal gas-fired absorption heat pump (A-GSHP) for space conditioning and domestic hot water heating in a Canadian climate. The A-GSHP is coupled to a photovoltaic (PV) system with battery storage intended to ensure the full autonomy of the heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) system from the electric grid. The system is modelled using TRNSYS with standard models and a new performance-based A-GSHP model, which accounts for part-load operation. Results indicate that the coefficient of performance (COP) is equal to 1.12, 0.55 and 1.79 for heating only, cooling only and simultaneous cooling and domestic hot water (DHW) heating, respectively. A 13.5 kWp PV array and a 400 kWh battery storage are necessary to provide the electrical power required to operate the A-GSHP and the associated HVAC system at all times without importing electrical energy from the grid.

Canadian election goes against the 'green shift'

Canada's voters have rejected the Liberal party's strong environmental platform to re-elect Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Hannah Hoag looks down the road ahead for Canadian climate policy.

Performance of stochastic weather generators LARS-WG and AAFC-WG for reproducing daily extremes of diverse Canadian climates

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 37:17-33 (2008) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00755 Performance of stochastic weather generators LARS-WG and AAFC-WG for reproducing daily extremes of diverse Canadian climates Budong Qian*, Samuel Gameda, Henry Hayhoe Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 960 Carling Avenue, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6, Canada *Email: qianb@agr.gc.ca ABSTRACT: Stochastic weather generators are widely used for generating synthetic weather data, and constitute one of the techniques for developing local climate scenarios from large-scale climate changes simulated by global climate models. Since climate change impact models may be more sensitive to changes in climate extremes than to changes in climate means, there is a need to know the capability of stochastic weather generating techniques in reproducing climate extremes. An evaluation of 2 stochastic weather generators, namely LARS-WG and AAFC-WG, is presented in this study, from the perspective of reproducing observed climate extremes. Extreme daily values (highest daily maximum temperature, lowest daily minimum temperature and maximum daily precipitation) were analysed on a monthly and annual basis, as well as for the growing season (1 May to 30 September), for 9 stations across Canada. The evaluation was based on statistical tests for basic statistical properties and return values derived from fitted generalised extreme value distributions. Results showed that the weather generators LARS-WG and AAFC-WG could reproduce statistical properties of the extreme values of daily precipitation satisfactorily, including 10, 20 and 50 yr return values. However, the performance of the weather generators in reproducing extreme daily values of temperatures was not as good as for precipitation, especially that of LARS-WG. The deficiency in reproducing extremely low temperatures was also more noticeable than extremely high temperatures for LARS-WG. The mismatches of return values were often caused by a more extreme value estimated from synthetic data than that derived from observations. KEY WORDS: Stochastic weather generator · Extreme daily value · Canada Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Qian B, Gameda S, Hayhoe H (2008) Performance of stochastic weather generators LARS-WG and AAFC-WG for reproducing daily extremes of diverse Canadian climates. Clim Res 37:17-33. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00755 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 37, No. 1. Online publication date: August 07, 2008 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2008 Inter-Research.