Campaign Outcomes Research Articles

Влияние доверия на эффективность дезинформации

The article examines the analysis of the concept of “disinformation” as a means of manipulative influence in the modern information environment, and the exploration of the ways in which societal trust affects it. The study defines disinformation, reveals similar (consonant) concepts – “misinformation” (misinformation) and “malinformation” (malinformation), and highlights the properties by which these concepts are differentiated. The article presents mechanisms and methods of disinformation dissemination, noting that mass media remains the most effective conduit for disinformation in the modern informational milieu. Furthermore, it is posited that the ultimate outcome of disinformation campaigns is directly correlated to the level of trust within the audience. Understanding the essence of disinformation and its mechanisms contributes to more effective identification and counteraction of this kind of information not only at the personal, but also at the state level.

Agricultural Experimentation in Cotton Cultivation under Natural and Climatic Conditions of Southern Russia (1920s-1940s)

This article examines the intricacies of cotton production organization in Southern Russia during the 1930s. It analyzes the progression and outcomes of cotton planting and harvesting campaigns amid challenging natural and climatic conditions. A comparative analysis of cotton sowing practices in Kalmykia and Dagestan is presented. The findings indicate that non-irrigated cotton farming developed more intensively in the former region, while irrigated cotton cultivation thrived in Dagestan, which had ample water resources. It is concluded that the increase in cotton production in Southern Russia during this period primarily resulted from the expansion of cultivated areas. The study demonstrates that pre-war Southern Russian cotton farming did not meet practical expectations and failed to provide the country with sufficient raw cotton. Archival documents serve as the primary materials for this research, introducing previously unpublished resources into the academic discourse. The relevance and practical significance of this study lie in the fact that the historical experience of cotton sowing in Southern Russia can inform contemporary agricultural development in the country.

Beauty Contest in Equity-Based Crowdfunding Campaigns

Purpose This study investigates how investor sentiment influences equity-based crowdfunding campaigns outcomes, with a particular focus on sentiment related to specific industries. The motivation stems from the need to understand the behavioural drivers behind crowdfunding outcomes, especially in a context where both private and public funding coexist. Study Design We employed a machine learning approach, utilizing the PolBERT model to analyse investor sentiment from online forum discussions in Poland. The data consisted of sentiment expressed across various industry-specific discussions, which were analysed to assess their impact on crowdfunding campaign outcomes. Findings The study reveals that while positive investor industry sentiment enhances the capital raised for IPO-targeted companies, it negatively affects overall campaign success and the number of investors, particularly in non-IPO-targeted firms. These findings suggest a complex relationship between sentiment and campaign outcomes, where higher sentiment can sometimes deter participation in certain cases. Contributions This research introduces a novel category of behavioural success drivers in the context of equity crowdfunding, proposing a new classification of meta-drivers of crowdfunding success. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the efficacy of fine-tuned BERT-class models in processing language, offering new insights into the investor sentiment analysis. Implications The results have significant implications for both researchers and practitioners. For researchers, the study expands the understanding of behavioural finance in crowdfunding, while for practitioners, it provides strategic insights into how investor sentiment can influence campaign timing, structure, and expectations. The findings also offer value for policymakers by shedding light on investor behaviour in equity-based crowdfunding markets.

Environmental protest outcomes in austerity-era neoliberalism: perseverance and politics

ABSTRACT This paper explores environmental protest outcomes during the decade of the 2010s in the UK. In doing so, it presents the results of a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of all 54 major environmental protest campaigns during the period. The study explores alternative causal conditions relating to a number of strategic and tactical options that environmental movements typically face. It finds that two alternative routes were sufficient for environmental protest campaigns to be successful: perseverance over time, in which longstanding campaigns staged a relatively large number of protest events; and instances where opposition political parties drew on, and supported, the demands of protesters. Interestingly, some of the more contested tactical options, including whether to adopt more or less disruptive methods, were inconclusive in explaining the successful outcome of protest-led campaigns. The article argues that this supports the case for tactical diversity. The findings show how in a context of austerity-era neoliberalism, where the government was (ostensibly) committed to tackling climate change, then protests (regardless of the organisational form or type of protest) proved able to exert effective pressure upon the government and firms, to ensure some degree of concession to the climate movement, provided that the protest campaign was able to persevere over time and/or secure the support of opposition political parties. This suggests a susceptibility, by both the state and firms during austerity-era neoliberalism, to (considerable) popular and political pressure arising from protest, but in the absence of which economic interests would otherwise take priority over environmental concerns.

«Без оружия»: проблема концептуализации насильственного и ненасильственного протеста в современной политической науке

The article is devoted to the analysis of the academic discussion that revolves around the problem of conceptualization of violent and nonviolent protest. After the author briefly documents the main milestones in the study of protest movements, he focuses on the main one — the emergence of the concept of Erica Chenoweth and her database of Nonviolent and Violent Campaign Outcomes (NAVCO). On the basis of this concept and database, as well as their criticism, the author demonstrates the existing conceptual chaos in defining and disentangling violent/nonviolent and armed/unarmed protests. According to his initial hypothesis, such chaos largely stems from the inattention to the extent of violence and disregard for its relativity. However, after the author elaborates an alternative hypothesis taking into account these factors, and it appears incapable of answering several questions that arise when studying protest campaigns, he had to conclude that the origins of this situation are far deeper. Having examined in detail the set of problems faced by protest researchers, the author suggests that at least some of them will be solved by returning to the context, which in turn requires abandoning methodological homogenization and including qualitative methods in the research arsenal, along with quantitative ones. At the same time, according to his conclusion, the general conceptualization of violent/nonviolent, as well as armed/unarmed, protests is impossible and meaningless. It will always encounter limitations that Political Science cannot overcome.

The role of platform stakes in equity crowdfunding success

This study examines the influence of platform characteristics — ownership stakes and underwriting fees — on the outcomes of equity crowdfunding campaigns and their ability to attract subsequent funding. Analyzing data from 2016 to 2022 across all U.S. equity crowdfunding platforms, our findings reveal that while platform ownership stakes positively correlate with immediate campaign success and follow-on funding, underwriting fees negatively impact success. However, these correlations weaken or reverse when analyzing the varying stakes taken within an individual platform like Wefunder and StartEngine. The findings highlight the importance of using multiple platforms in analyzing the impact of platform stakes on success.

Common Data Elements for Disorders of Consciousness: Recommendations from the Working Group on Outcomes and Endpoints.

Clinical management of persons with disorders of consciousness (DoC) is dedicated largely to optimizing recovery. However, selecting a measure to evaluate the extent of recovery is challenging because few measures are designed to precisely assess the full range of potential outcomes, from prolonged DoC to return of preinjury functioning. Measures that are designed specifically to assess persons with DoC are often performance-based and only validated for in-person use. Moreover, there are no published recommendations addressing which outcome measures should be used to evaluate DoC recovery. The resulting inconsistency in the measures selected by individual investigators to assess outcome prevents comparison of results across DoC studies. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) common data elements (CDEs) is an amalgamation of standardized variables and tools that are recommended for use in studies of neurologic diseases and injuries. The Neurocritical Care Society Curing Coma Campaign launched an initiative to develop CDEs specifically for DoC and invited our group to recommend CDE outcomes and endpoints for persons with DoCs. The Curing Coma Campaign Outcomes and Endpoints CDE Workgroup, consisting of experts in adult and pediatric neurocritical care, neurology, and neuroscience, used a previously established five-step process to identify and select candidate CDEs: (1) review of existing NINDS CDEs, (2) nomination and systematic vetting of new CDEs, (3) CDE classification, (4) iterative review and approval of panel recommendations, and (5) development of case report forms. Among hundreds of existing NINDS outcome and endpoint CDE measures, we identified 20 for adults and 18 for children that can be used to assess the full range of recovery from coma. We also proposed 14 new outcome and endpointCDE measures for adults and 5 for children. The DoC outcome and endpoint CDEs are a starting point in the broader effort to standardize outcome evaluation of persons with DoC. The ultimate goal is to harmonize DoC studies and allow for more precise assessment of outcomes after severe brain injury or illness. An iterative approach is required to modify and adjust these outcome and endpoint CDEs as new evidence emerges.

Caste Inequality in Medical Crowdfunding in India

Medical crowdfunding has gained significant popularity and importance, yet researchers argue that it might not offer equitable financial assistance to vulnerable groups. Studies in Western countries have highlighted disparities in medical crowdfunding based on racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic dimensions. Despite this, the equity implications of crowdfunding in India have not been thoroughly investigated. We present the initial empirical evidence indicating caste-based inequalities in medical crowdfunding within India. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset comprising 5527 medical crowdfunding campaigns from one of India’s largest platforms, we evaluate the impact of the recipient’s caste identity on campaign outcomes. Our methodology utilises administrative data to deduce caste from the recipient’s surname. Campaigns by individuals from dominant caste groups tend to garner higher funds compared to those from marginalised castes, largely due to higher average donations. Furthermore, individuals from Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (marginalised groups in India) initiate disproportionately fewer campaigns than dominant castes. Our findings remain robust across various performance metrics and alternative model specifications, even after adjusting for multiple campaign features and recipient locations. In summary, our study highlights how crowdfunding on for-profit platforms may exacerbate existing caste-related health disparities in India by disproportionately favouring privileged groups.

Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

In 2021, the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) established a working group tasked with conducting the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) to assess the current accuracy of EOP forecasts. From September 2021 to December 2022, EOP predictions submitted by participants from various institutes worldwide were systematically collected and evaluated. This article summarizes the campaign's outcomes, concentrating on the forecasts of the dX, dY, and dψ, dε components of celestial pole offsets (CPO). After detailing the campaign participants and the methodologies employed, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the collected forecasts. We examine the discrepancies between observed and predicted CPO values and analyze their statistical characteristics such as mean, standard deviation, and range. To evaluate CPO forecasts, we computed the mean absolute error (MAE) using the IERS EOP 14 C04 solution as the reference dataset. We then compared the results obtained with forecasts provided by the IERS. The main goal of this study was to show the influence of different methods used on predictions accuracy. Depending on the evaluated prediction approach, the MAE values computed for day 10 of forecast were between 0.03 and 0.16 mas for dX, between 0.03 and 0.12 mas for dY, between 0.07 and 0.91 mas for dψ, and between 0.04 and 0.41 mas for dε. For day 30 of prediction, the corresponding MAE values ranged between 0.03 and 0.12 for dX, and between 0.03 and 0.14 mas for dY. This research shows that machine learning algorithms are the most promising approach in CPO forecasting and provide the highest prediction accuracy (0.06 mas for dX and 0.08 mas for dY for day 10 of prediction).Graphical abstract

Trust in institutions affects vaccination campaign outcomes.

Trust is an important driver of various outcomes, but little is known about whether trust in institutions affects actual vaccination campaign outcomes rather than only beliefs and intentions. We used nationally representative, individual-level data for 114 countries and combined them with data on vaccination policies and rates. We measured the speed of the vaccination campaign for each country using the estimated growth rate of a Gompertz curve. We then performed country-level regressions in the global sample and explored heterogeneity across World Bank development groups. Globally, higher trust in institutions significantly increased vaccination rates (p<0.01) and vaccination speed (p<0.01). The effect was strong in low- and middle-income countries but statistically not significant in high-income countries. Our findings have implications for the design of vaccination campaigns for national governments and international organizations. The findings highlight the importance of trust in institutions when designing communication strategies around vaccination campaigns in low- and middle-income countries.

Are we on the same wavelength? Interdimensional signal set and crowdfunding success

AbstractResearch SummaryUsing data from 1899 Kickstarter campaigns (2009–2019), we examine the impact of simultaneous emission of interdimensional signals of human capital and social causes on crowdfunding campaign success. We argue and demonstrate that backers respond positively to human capital signals, as reflected by prior work and entrepreneurial experiences, as they communicate the competencies of the entrepreneurs. Conversely, signaling a high level of commitment to social causes communicates competing demands, thereby reducing entrepreneurs' ability to secure funding. Moreover, when emitted jointly, interaction of these two signals negatively affects campaign success. Our theory and findings provide nuanced insights regarding simultaneously emitted interdimensional signals in crowdfunding context with a structured incentive system, thereby increasing our understanding about the ambiguous nature of bundling human capital with high social cause signals.Managerial SummaryWhen evaluating new ventures in the public sphere, potential backers simultaneously process the complex information emitted by founders (i.e., signals). These signals communicate the unobservable qualities of the founders. In this article, we investigate the independent and joint effects of two signals on crowdfunding campaign outcomes: founder's human capital and their commitment to social causes. We show that while human capital increases campaign success, a high commitment to social cause decreases this likelihood. We further demonstrate that when these two signals are emitted simultaneously, balancing issues between the signals reduce the chances of attaining campaign success in crowdfunding. These findings emphasize the importance for crowdfunding founders and campaign designers to communicate coherent and well aligned signals to ensure campaign success.

Under the Hood of Activist Fraud Campaigns: Private Information Quality, Disclosure Incentives, and Stock Lending Dynamics

ABSTRACT Although activist short sellers can play a crucial role in fraud detection, they have come under scrutiny following accusations of systematically disseminating false negative information. We develop a framework delineating the roles of campaign-specific private information quality and short-selling dynamics in shaping disclosure incentives. We predict that the act of disclosure combined with pre-disclosure stock lending dynamics is informative about the quality of an activist’s private information. We find that increased pre-disclosure shorting intensity is associated with more negative post-disclosure returns, adverse media coverage, and consequential campaign outcomes, including auditor turnover, accounting restatements, class-action lawsuits, and performance-related delistings. Furthermore, elevated short-selling costs and risks magnify the association between pre-disclosure shorting intensity and post-disclosure underperformance. Finally, we examine V-shaped reversals and short covering following activists’ disclosures and find no evidence of systematic manipulation. We conclude that activists disclosing fraud allegations under their own names are discouraged from engaging in “short-and-distort” schemes. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G12; G14; G23; M41.

Effective Movement Framing Strategies for Gender Policy Changes in South Korea

Abstract This article examines the impact of framing strategies on the political outcomes of feminist legislative campaigns in South Korea. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), I analyze the interactive effects of frame qualities and nonverbal framing activities. The research fills a gap in the literature by emphasizing the combined influence of frame articulateness and empirically credible frames on political success. It also highlights the significance of nonverbal strategies such as strategic silence and the use of a broader identity in framing. By considering both verbal and nonverbal framing elements, this article provides a comprehensive understanding of how framing contributes to the achievements of social movements.

Evaluating the effectiveness of social media in health communication: assessing the impact and outcomes of health communication campaigns conducted on x (Twitter)

Twitter, a leading health communication channel, has effectively promoted health awareness and continues to do so. It provides health information quickly and easily, serving as a vital source of health information. Health practitioners often use Twitter to disseminate health information, a trend that has become more prevalent than engaging audiences in multi-way conversations and interactions. This reassures us of the platform's effectiveness in reaching a broad audience. Twitter has emerged as a powerful tool for reaching a broader audience, offering platforms like Twitter Space for discussion and engagement with health professionals. This technology has brought a new dimension to healthcare, enlightening the public and promoting health behaviors, benefits, challenges, and preventive measures. This research delved into the effectiveness of Twitter in health communication. The study employed a quantitative approach, using a survey to assess the impact of health-related content on Twitter and evaluate the effectiveness of shared health communication. The anticipated outcomes of this research include a comprehensive understanding of the effectiveness of Twitter on health communication, insights into the effectiveness of health content Twitter users access, and recommendations for improving health outcomes through targeted audience campaigns by providing empirical evidence on the effectiveness of Twitter on health communication and a positive and crucial role play in promoting health awareness. Twitter has been used as a tool for health communication campaigns, and many Twitter users benefit from the health information gained there

The Effectiveness of Verbal Mimicry in Activist Hedge Fund Campaigns

Hedge fund activism frequently has severe consequences for target firms and their management and boards. Yet, we know little about target management and boards’ response to activist attacks. To advance our understanding in this respect, we examine how the style of target management and boards’ written communication with activists influences campaign outcomes. Building on the behavioral mimicry perspective, we propose that language style matching (LSM) and emotional tone mimicry (ETM), which constitute two distinct types of verbal mimicry, are important communication style characteristics of target management and boards’ response letters that can induce activist demand withdrawal. Though LSM and ETM are reflective of different modes of conflict behavior, we further reason based on conflict management research that ETM in conjunction with LSM is particularly effective in inducing activist demand withdrawal. The positive effects of ETM in conjunction with LSM, however, are expected to fade with increasing length of target management and boards’ written response. Results of an empirical analysis of the public communication between activists and target management and boards in 150 U.S. activist hedge fund campaigns between 2002 and 2019 support these predictions. Our study extends research on financial activism by offering a novel theoretical explanation as to why and how target management and boards can avert activist demands. Further, we contribute to behavioral mimicry research by examining the individual and joint effectiveness of distinct types of verbal mimicry in the hostile context of activist hedge fund campaigns.

The upgrade of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter for HL-LHC

The High Luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) at CERN aims to achieve unprecedented levels of instantaneous and integrated luminosities, approximately 5 × 1034 cm-2 s-1 and 3000 fb-1, respectively. It is anticipated that each bunch-crossing will result in an average of 140 to 200 collisions (pileup). The lead tungstate crystals and avalanche photodiodes (APDs) in the barrel region of the electromagnetic calorimeter (ECAL) of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) will remain effective. However the readout and trigger electronics will undergo complete replacement to keep the current level of performance. A dual gain trans-impedance amplifier and an application-specific integrated circuit will be installed, providing two 160 MS/s analog-to-digital converter channels, gain selection, and data compression. The increase in noise within the APDs, due to radiation-induced dark current, will be alleviated by reducing the operating temperature of the ECAL. Additionally, the trigger primitive formation will be shifted away from the detector and handled by powerful and flexible field-programmable gate array processors housed on the back-end electronics cards.In this document, the complete ECAL barrel readout chain design and the current state of research and development for each individual component regarding the upgrade will be described. The outcomes of recent test beam campaigns conducted at the CERN SPS, exploiting electron beams with energies of up to 250 GeV, will also be summarized. Notably, measurements pertaining to the energy resolution performance of the latest prototypes of HL-LHC ECAL readout electronics will be presented.

Mass media campaigns and the 'file drawer problem': A mixed methods study of how to avoid campaign failure.

Mass media campaigns are frequently used to address public health issues. Considering the considerable cost, there has been little analysis of why campaigns sometimes fail. This study used a sequential mixed methods approach to explore the mechanisms that can lead to failure and to identify what can be done to avoid or overcome common mistakes in campaign planning, implementation, and evaluation. We conducted interviews and a survey with 28 public health social marketing and mass media campaign experts over three rounds of research and analysed the data thematically, generating themes inductively. We identified four systemic factors that drive success: long-term strategic thinking and commitment, understanding the campaign context, doing and learning from evaluation, and fostering strong relationships. The factors did not operate in isolation, rather good (or poor) execution in one area was likely to influence performance in another. The experts also emphasised that a change of political context could drastically affect one or more of the identified factors. Our analysis showed that campaign failures are not simply individuals making mistakes. Systemic issues throughout the planning, execution, and evaluation phases need to be addressed if campaign outcomes are to improve.

The effect of covid policy restrictions on donations during the sustainable and entrepreneurial context

Using real platform data, this paper assesses donors’ reactions to a rare event; specifically, we demonstrate how donors were able to compensate for (or stabilize) healthcare deficits and policy restrictions used to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Based on a sample of 20,784 covid-related donation campaigns promoted on GoFundMe platform from January 30, 2020 to November 23, 2021, the paper shows that donors decided to donate based on campaign purpose and reliability: specifically, campaigns with the purpose to support hospitals or to buy healthcare materials in countries more affected by the pandemic received more funds. Moreover, the paper provides evidence of the impact of different government policy restrictions on campaign outcome in terms of amount raised and number of campaigns promoted in six European countries. As donations during COVID-19 were valuable (in particular, for public institutions) in terms of amount and timeliness, our findings offer valuable insights into how governments encouraged donations via fiscal incentives and policy restrictions.

A Systematic Review of the Impacts of Media Mental Health Awareness Campaigns on Young People.

Mental health issues are prevalent among young people. An estimated 10% of children and adolescents worldwide experience a mental disorder, yet most do not seek or receive care. Media mental health awareness campaigns, defined as marketing efforts to raise awareness of mental health issues through mass media, are an effort to address this concern. While previous research has evaluated the outcomes of specific media mental health awareness campaigns, there is limited data synthesizing their overall effects. This study addresses the knowledge gap by reviewing the existing literature on the impact of media mental health awareness campaigns on young people. A search was conducted on MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Web of Science, and Google Scholar for studies published between 2004 and 2022 with results specific to people aged 10 to 24. Out of 20,902 total studies identified and screened, 18 studies were included in the review. The following data were extracted from each study: characteristics and descriptions of the campaign, evaluation design and sampling, and summary of impact. The review identified evaluations of 15 campaigns from eight different countries. Outcome evaluation methods commonly comprised of surveys and quantitative data. The campaigns were generally associated with positive changes in the attitudes, beliefs, and intentions of young people (e.g., reduced stigma) and positive changes in behaviors (e.g., increased help-seeking behaviors). The inclusion of few studies in the review indicates a need for ongoing evaluations of media mental health awareness campaigns for young people to inform good practices in their development and distribution.

Racial Disparities in Medical Crowdfunding: The Role of Sharing Disparity and Humanizing Narratives

ABSTRACT Americans have increasingly turned to online crowdfunding to pay for healthcare costs, but our understanding of the inequalities in medical crowdfunding remains limited. This study investigates racial disparities in medical crowdfunding outcomes and examines the role of communication in amplifying, altering, or even reducing the disparities. Using data from 1,127 medical crowdfunding campaigns on GoFundMe, the study found that beneficiaries of color received significantly fewer donations than their White counterparts. The differences in donations between racial groups were partly attributable to sharing disparities. Campaigns for beneficiaries of color were shared less via e-mail or social media than campaigns for White beneficiaries. Campaign narratives with more humanizing details about beneficiaries were associated with more donations. However, humanizing details did not predict more shares, nor were they linked to smaller disparities in campaign outcomes between racial groups. Post-hoc analyses showed that more humanizing details were linked to fewer campaign donations for male beneficiaries of color. The findings contribute to the scholarship addressing the intersections of communication and health inequality on digital platforms.