Campfire Research Articles

Catastrophic fires, human displacement, and real estate prices in California

Millions of people are displaced by natural disasters each year, yet little is known about how evacuees affect host communities. We analyze the migratory effects of the most destructive fire in California history, the 2018 Camp Fire, which destroyed over 18,000 structures and displaced roughly 50,000 people. By merging geospatial information on the fire’s footprint with Zillow’s housing transaction data, we estimate both the spatial and temporal effects of the fire on real estate prices at a granular level. A number of important insights emerge. First, within 25 miles of the fire’s footprint, home prices increased by 13 percent in the six-week aftermath of the fire. Effects decay with distance and are statistically insignificant beyond 100 miles. Second, effects are detected within two weeks of the fire, fully materialize within four weeks, and are persistent up to ten months (which exhausts our period of consideration). Results are consistent with the relocation decisions of evacuees and are robust to a variety of specifications and modeling assumptions.

The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980

The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980

The Camp fire and perinatal health: An example of the generalized synthetic control method to identify susceptible windows of exposure.

The November 2018 Camp fire was the most destructive wildfire in California history, but its effects on reproductive health are not known. We linked California birth records from 2017-2019 to daily smoke levels using U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) PM2.5 data and NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke plume polygons during the Camp fire. In the main analysis, pregnancies were considered exposed if they had median AQS PM2.5 levels above 50 μg/m3 for at least 7 days during November 8-22, 2018. We calculated rates of preterm birth and the infant sex ratio based on week of conception and used the generalized synthetic control method to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated and to propose a novel approach to identify potential critical weeks of exposure during pregnancy. We found associations between Camp fire-related smoke exposure and rates of preterm birth, with a risk difference (RD) = 0.005, 95% CI 0.001, 0.010. Exposure during week 10 of pregnancy was consistently associated with increased preterm birth (RD = 0.030, 95% CI 0.004, 0.056). We did not observe differences in the infant sex ratio. Camp fire smoke exposure was associated with increased rates of preterm birth, with sensitive windows in the first trimester.

Cloud-based urgent computing for forest fire spread prediction

Forest fires cause every year damages to biodiversity, atmosphere, and economy activities. Forest fire simulation have improved significantly, but input data describing fire scenarios are subject to high levels of uncertainty. In this work the two-stage prediction scheme is used to adjust unknown parameters. This scheme relies on an input data calibration phase, which is carried over following a genetic algorithm strategy. The calibrated inputs are then pipelined into the actual prediction phase. This two-stage prediction scheme is leveraged by the cloud computing paradigm, which enables high level of parallelism on demand, elasticity, scalability and low-cost. In this paper, all the models designed to properly allocate cloud resources to the two-stage scheme in a performance-efficient and cost-effective way are described. This Cloud-based Urgent Computing (CuCo) architecture has been tested using, as study case, an extreme wildland fire that took place in California in 2018 (Camp Fire).

The tensions of crowdsourcing disaster response in disaster‐specific Facebook groups after the Camp Fire

AbstractDisaster‐specific Facebook groups (DSFGs) are Facebook groups devoted to a specific disaster or set of disasters. I argue DSFGs offer opportunities for disaster response and resilience organizing that can mitigate the limitations of institutionalized disaster response and illustrate the benefits and detriments of the use of DSFGs by survivors after California's 2018 Camp Fire. This study explores the helpfulness and unhelpfulness or hurtfulness of Camp Fire Facebook groups (CFFGs) for survivors' recoveries. I surveyed 232 Camp Fire survivors who used CFFGs. Sharing recovery processes and spreading information in CFFGs were both helpful and unhelpful to survivors' recoveries. CFFGs were also helpful for exchanging direct assistance, sustaining community, developing new relationships, lifting spirits, and championing survivors and unhelpful or hurtful due to scamming, facing negativity, and encountering the victim mentality. I contend that tensions exist for crowdsourcing disaster response in DSFGs, whereby what makes a DSFG helpful can also be unhelpful or hurtful, and I call for coordination between DSFGs and institutional disaster response to improve disaster response networks.

Post-wildfire neighborhood change: Evidence from the 2018 Camp Fire

As the number of highly destructive wildfires grows, it is increasingly important to understand the long-term changes that occur to fire-affected places. Integrating approaches from social and biophysical science, we document two forms of neighborhood change following the 2018 Camp Fire in the United States, examining the more than 17,000 residential structures within the burn footprint. We found that mobile or motor homes, lower-value residences, and absentee owner residences had a significantly higher probability of being destroyed, providing evidence that housing stock filtering facilitated socially stratified patterns of physical damage. While the relationship between building value and destruction probability could be explained by measures of building density and distance to nearby roads, building type remained an independent predictor of structure loss that we could not fully explain by adding environmental covariates to our models. Using a geospatial machine learning technique, we then identified buildings that had been reconstructed within the burn footprint 20 months after the fire. We found that reconstructed buildings were more likely to have been owner-occupied prior to the fire and had higher average pre-fire property value, suggesting an emerging pattern of cost-burden gentrification. Our findings illustrate the importance of examining the built environment as a driver of socially uneven disaster impacts. Wildfire mitigation strategies are needed for mobile and motor home residents, renters, low-income residents, and dense neighborhoods.

“We’re all in the same boat”: The role of group physical activity in community (re) development following a natural disaster

ABSTRACT After the 2018 Camp Fire decimated the town of Paradise, California, a group physical activity (PA) program was developed to support the community. The PARADISEU program (Physical Activity Reduces Anxiety and Depression Increases the Stress Response and Energizes You) was based on evidence that participating in PA has the potential to positively impact mental health. The current study explored the potential of PA programs to assist in individual and community growth and (re)development efforts following a natural disaster using a qualitative case-study method. Fourteen participants in the community PA program were interviewed. From their experiences, four themes emerged: benefits of physical exercise, a sense of place, social connection, and importance of leadership in the group PA classes for creating community. A composite vignette shares participants’ experiences surrounding these themes. This study provides valuable information for future community development in post-disaster recovery scenarios.

The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980 by Jennifer Helgren (review)

The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980 by Jennifer Helgren (review)

Wildland-urban interface wildfire increases metal contributions to stormwater runoff in Paradise, California.

The 2018 Camp Fire was a large late-year (November) wildfire that produced an urban firestorm in the Town of Paradise, California, USA, and destroyed more than 18 000 structures. Runoff from burned wildland areas is known to contain ash, which can transport contaminants including metals into nearby watersheds. However, due to historically infrequent occurrences, the effect of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, such as the Camp Fire, on surface water quality has not been well-characterized. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of widespread urban burning on surface water quality in major watersheds of the Camp Fire area. Between November 2018 and May 2019, 140 surface water samples were collected, including baseflow and stormflow, from burned and unburned watersheds with varying extent of urban development. Samples were analyzed for total and filter-passing metals, dissolved organic carbon, major anions, and total suspended solids. Ash and debris from the Camp Fire contributed metals to downstream watersheds via runoff throughout the storm season. Increases in concentration up to 200-fold were found for metals Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn in burned watersheds compared to pre-fire values. Total concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn exceeded EPA aquatic habitat acute criteria by up to 16-fold for up to five months after the fire. To assess possible transport mechanisms and bioavailability, a subset of 18 samples was analyzed using four filters with nominal pore sizes ranging from 0.22 to 1.2 μm to determine the particulate size distribution of metals. Trace and major metals (Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were found mostly associated with larger grain sizes (>0.45 μm), and some metals (Al, Cr, Fe, and Pb) also included a substantial colloidal phase (0.22 to 0.45 μm). This study suggests that fires in the wildland-urban interface increase metal concentrations, mainly through particulate driven transport. The metals with the largest increases are likely from anthropogenic disaster materials, though biomass ash also is a major contributor to water quality. The increase in metals following WUI burning may have adverse ecological impacts.

Integrating dynamic wildland fire position input with a community fire spread simulation: A case study of the 2018 Camp Fire

Wildland fire simulation models can be used to inform wildfire risk assessment and mitigation strategies. However, existing models tend to simulate fire spread only inside the wildland or the wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities, but not in both. As a result, there is a need to integrate methodologies to enable seamless simulations of events that ignite in the wildland and continue spreading both across the wildland and inside WUI communities. This paper investigates a systematic methodology to provide a WUI fire spread model with the capacity to assimilate dynamic wildland fire position inputs. The paper uses the streamlined wildland-urban interface fire tracing (SWUIFT) model to simulate WUI fire spread, weather radar data to track the fire line inside the wildland, and the 2018 Camp Fire event as a case study. The work proposes and evaluates a methodology based on a ‘Three-Domain Solution’ (Wildland, Transition, Community) for a smooth fire transition between wildland and community settings. Alternative approaches are examined to describe the boundaries of a Community Domain for simulation purposes. Existing WUI definitions are studied, and considering the analysis results, a non-WUI neighborhood-based housing density (NBHD) method is proposed. This work establishes a systematic approach for a unified wildland-WUI fire simulation.

The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980, Jennifer Helgren

The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980, Jennifer Helgren

Modeling roadway temperatures for wildfire evacuation and assessment of pavement damage

Wildfires can cause enormous loss of assets and human lives, and thus, timely evacuation from the wildfire zone is critical to saving lives. Understanding evacuation route conditions, including traffic and temperature data, is imperative for safe evacuation. This study modeled the temperature conditions of an evacuation roadway within a wildfire zone, using the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, California as an experiment. The numerical modeling program, FlamMap, was used in this study to analyze the temperature conditions of an evacuation route. The results show that the temperature of the evacuation roadway increased quickly in a matter of a few hours. The change of roadways temperatures ranged from 3°C to 297°C within five hours after ignition, depending on the specific location along the roadway and other conditions. The results from this study can be used to understand temperature conditions for effective evacuation and to estimate roadway damage as well.

Book Review: The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980 by Helgren, Jennifer

Book Review: <i>The Camp Fire Girls: Gender, Race, and American Girlhood, 1910–1980</i> by Helgren, Jennifer

The Role of Fuel Characteristics and Heat Release Formulations in Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Simulation

In this study, we focus on the effects of fuel bed representation and fire heat and smoke distribution in a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation platform for two landscape-scale fires: the 2018 Camp Fire and the 2021 Caldor Fire. The fuel bed representation in the coupled fire-atmosphere simulation platform WRF-Fire currently includes only surface fuels. Thus, we enhance the model by adding canopy fuel characteristics and heat release, for which a method to calculate the heat generated from canopy fuel consumption is developed and implemented in WRF-Fire. Furthermore, the current WRF-Fire heat and smoke distribution in the atmosphere is replaced with a heat-conserving Truncated Gaussian (TG) function and its effects are evaluated. The simulated fire perimeters of case studies are validated against semi-continuous, high-resolution fire perimeters derived from NEXRAD radar observations. Furthermore, simulated plumes of the two fire cases are compared to NEXRAD radar reflectivity observations, followed by buoyancy analysis using simulated temperature and vertical velocity fields. The results show that while the improved fuel bed and the TG heat release scheme have small effects on the simulated fire perimeters of the wind-driven Camp Fire, they affect the propagation direction of the plume-driven Caldor Fire, leading to better-matching fire perimeters with the observations. However, the improved fuel bed representation, together with the TG heat smoke release scheme, leads to a more realistic plume structure in comparison to the observations in both fires. The buoyancy analysis also depicts more realistic fire-induced temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation when the fuel bed is improved.

Highly Time-Resolved Apportionment of Carbonaceous Aerosols from Wildfire Using the TC-BC Method: Camp Fire 2018 Case Study.

The Camp Fire was one of California's deadliest and most destructive wildfires, and its widespread smoke threatened human health over a large area in Northern California in November 2018. To analyze the Camp Fire influence on air quality on a 200 km distant site in Berkeley, highly time-resolved total carbon (TC), black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) were measured using the Carbonaceous Aerosol Speciation System (CASS, Aerosol Magee Scientific), comprising two instruments, a Total Carbon Analyzer TCA08 in tandem with an Aethalometer AE33. During the period when the air quality was affected by wildfire smoke, the BC concentrations increased four times above the typical air pollution level presented in Berkeley before and after the event, and the OC increased approximately ten times. High-time-resolution measurements allow us to study the aging of OC and investigate how the characteristics of carbonaceous aerosols evolve over the course of the fire event. A higher fraction of secondary carbonaceous aerosols was observed in the later phase of the fire. At the same time, the amount of light-absorbing organic aerosol (brown carbon) declined with time.

Note from the Editors

Previous article FreeNote from the EditorsStephen Brain, Mark D. Hersey, and Sarah Stanford-McIntyreStephen Brain Search for more articles by this author , Mark D. Hersey Search for more articles by this author , and Sarah Stanford-McIntyre Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmailPrint SectionsMoreWhile preparing to compose these notes from the editors, we’ve come to think of them as postcards to the future. Returning from the annual conference of the American Society for Environmental History in Boston, we mused about whether readers receiving this issue in July would recall the environmentally themed items in the news from recent months. Will February’s 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Turkey and Syria, and the questions it raised about safe building codes in seismically active areas, have receded completely from the public memory? Did the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, spur a sustained conversation about the transport of toxic chemicals and the related environmental justice issues? Have the atmospheric rivers that recently filled California’s reservoirs put an end, however temporary, to thoroughgoing evaluations of western water usage? Events like these, the subjects of tomorrow’s environmental history dissertations, monographs, and articles, rise and fall so quickly in the public consciousness that they can seem ephemeral, evanescent. Yet it is precisely this fleeting quality of the daily news that makes the environmental historian’s vocation all the more important: to revisit key moments from the past, to track the changing relationship between humans and the nonhuman world, and to raise objections when that relationship merits critique.The articles in the July 2023 issue do precisely this, rescuing from obscurity certain historical episodes—some recent, others remote—and correcting scholarly misperceptions about the role that the natural world has played in human affairs, and vice versa. The Reflection essay by the chief historian of the United States Forest Service, Lincoln Bramwell, about the 2018 Camp Fire in California, places in deeper context the apparent rise of catastrophic forest fires in the twenty-first century, arguing that ill-advised human settlement patterns and blithe attitudes about fire have changed more than the climate or other pyrogenic conditions. Hayley Negrin’s essay about colonial diplomacy underscores how important interaction with the nonhuman world was for Indigenous communities by examining the treaties negotiated by the Powhatan leader Cockacoeske and foregrounding the environmental relationships that she negotiated into agreements with the English. Emma Schroeder’s contribution to the issue explores the intersection of gender equity and environmental activism, demonstrating how tightly bound the two have been in the postwar era. And finally, Joanna Linzer’s piece explores industrial pollution in early modern Japan, defying scholarly expectations about class conflict and environmental justice, and revealing that simple formulae about environmental harm moving downhill and toward the less privileged do not necessarily apply in all cases.Like the articles, the book reviews in this issue provoke readers to reassess popular environmentalist arguments. Reviewers ask us to reevaluate what we think we know about issues ranging from plastics pollution to climate migration; from the environmental impact of work, coercion, and slavery to the politics of public land stewardship. Emphasizing the global nature of the field, reviewers evaluate non-English works that synthesize the environmental histories of Finland and Russia for our English-speaking readership.We hope that this postcard to the future finds our readers well, and as always, we are pleased to have such devoted correspondents. Previous article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Ahead of Print Published for the American Society for Environmental History and the Forest History Society Views: 55Total views on this site Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/725397 Views: 55Total views on this site HistoryPublished online May 04, 2023 © 2023 Forest History Society and American Society for Environmental History. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Incident Report and Analysis of the 2021 Cox’s Bazar Rohingya Refugee Camp Fire in Bangladesh

AbstractAccording to the UN Refugee Agency, roughly 980,000 people live in the Cox’s Bazar region in Bangladesh, making it the largest and most densely populated refugee camp in the world. The number of fires in this settlement rapidly increased in 2021. On 22 March, a large fire event occurred, where 15 fatalities and 560 injuries were reported, and more than 9500 homes were affected leaving 45,000 homeless. This work seeks to reconstruct this incident based on firefighters’ statements, information found in the media, and satellite imagery. The study shows that (a) the fire spread extremely fast, with linear spread rates between 79 and 310 m/h and an average areal spread rate of 92,850 m2/h estimated, (b) the firefighters performed two main operations, firefighting and the creation of fire barriers, (c) the residents self-evacuated, deciding when and where to evacuate, and (d) the residents’ actions were similar to what has been observed in residential fires, with several people mentioning looking for missing family members. Fire spread is analogous to wildland fires where conflagrations spread across large areas of combustible material. This work can be used in planning for future large-scale fire incidents in tented camps, and proactively seeking ways of mitigating their impact. This is the first detailed documentation of such a large-scale refugee camp incident in the academic literature.

Differences in interference processing and frontal brain function with climate trauma from California’s deadliest wildfire

As climate change accelerates extreme weather disasters, the mental health of the impacted communities is a rising concern. In a recent study of 725 Californians we showed that individuals that were directly exposed to California’s deadliest wildfire, the Camp Fire of 2018, had significantly greater chronic symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression than control individuals not exposed to the fires. Here, we study a subsample of these individuals: directly exposed (n = 27), indirectly exposed (who witnessed the fire but were not directly impacted, n = 21), versus age and gender-matched non-exposed controls (n = 27). All participants underwent cognitive testing with synchronized electroencephalography (EEG) brain recordings. In our sample, 67% of the individuals directly exposed to the fire reported having experienced recent trauma, while 14% of the indirectly exposed individuals and 0% of the non-exposed controls reported recent trauma exposure. Fire-exposed individuals showed significant cognitive deficits, particularly on the interference processing task and greater stimulus-evoked fronto-parietal activity as measured on this task. Across all subjects, we found that stimulus-evoked activity in left frontal cortex was associated with overall improved interference processing efficiency, suggesting the increased activity observed in fire exposed individuals may reflect a compensatory increase in cortical processes associated with cognitive control. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to examine the cognitive and underlying neural impacts of recent climate trauma.

Coupled fire-atmosphere simulation of the 2018 Camp Fire using WRF-Fire

Background Accurate simulation of wildfires can benefit pre-ignition mitigation and preparedness, and post-ignition emergency response management. Aims We evaluated the performance of Weather Research and Forecast-Fire (WRF-Fire), a coupled fire-atmosphere wildland fire simulation platform, in simulating a large historic fire (2018 Camp Fire). Methods A baseline model based on a setup typically used for WRF-Fire operational applications is utilised to simulate Camp Fire. Simulation results are compared to high-temporal-resolution fire perimeters derived from NEXRAD observations. The sensitivity of the model to a series of modelling parameters and assumptions governing the simulated wind field are then investigated. Results of WRF-Fire for Camp Fire are compared to FARSITE. Key results Baseline case shows non-negligible discrepancies between the simulated fire and the observations on rate of spread (ROS) and spread direction. Sensitivity analysis results show that refining the atmospheric grid of Camp Fire’s complex terrain improves fire prediction capabilities. Conclusions Sensitivity studies show the importance of refined atmosphere modelling for wildland fire simulation using WRF-Fire in complex terrains. Compared to FARSITE, WRF-Fire agrees better with the observations in terms of fire propagation rate and direction. Implications The findings suggest the need for further investigation of other possible sources of wildfire modelling uncertainties and errors.

Burnover events identified during the 2018 Camp Fire

Background The Camp Fire burned through communities in Butte County, California, on 8 November 2018. The fire destroyed over 18 000 structures and caused 85 fatalities, mostly within the first 12 h of the incident.Aims A post-fire case study was conducted to learn from the devastating incident.Methods The case study was supported by detailed first-hand accounts from 157 first responders, photos and videos, first responder radio logs, and other field data. Subsequent analysis and data integration yielded a timeline reconstruction of the first 24 h of the entire event, as well as additional observations of the fire behaviour.Key results A total of 23 life-threatening entrapment and burnover events were identified, in which fire trapped or overtook people and compromised escape routes.Conclusions Seventeen burnovers directly impacted evacuating civilians, 12 of which occurred on major evacuation roadways. These events affected the safety of hundreds of evacuating civilians and dozens of first responders.Implications Fast-moving fires may require last-minute large-scale evacuations, such as the Camp Fire. The risk of similar types of events is high, particularly in intermix communities where the presence of wildland vegetation along evacuation routes, likely amplified by local topography and wind, can result in significant entrapments or burnovers.