Cambridge Study In Delinquent Development Research Articles

The Relationship Between Parental Imprisonment and Offspring Offending in England and The Netherlands

This article examines whether prisoners' children have more adult convictions than children whose parents were convicted but not imprisoned. This is investigated in England and the Netherlands from 1946 to 1981 using two prospective longitudinal datasets: the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development and the NSCR Transfive Study. In the Netherlands, no significant relationship was found between parental imprisonment and offspring offending. In England, a relationship was found for sons only. This association can be partly explained by parental criminality. However, after controlling for number of parental convictions and other childhood risk factors, a significant relationship remained between number of parental imprisonments and sons' offending. When parental imprisonment at different ages is examined, parental imprisonment only significantly predicted sons' offending when it happened after the sons' seventh birthday.

DNA Retention Policies: The Potential Contribution of Criminal Career Research

The S & Marper judgment of the European Court of Human Rights held that the DNA samples of individuals arrested but subsequently cleared should be discarded from the national DNA database. Though the authors are sympathetic to the privacy concerns associated with DNA retention policies, the present paper contends that the concepts and methods of criminal career research should be brought to bear on the retention issue. A worked example showing how this might be carried out for convicted offenders is provided using data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a prospective longitudinal follow-up of 411 working-class London males. The analyses illustrate the potential for crime detection after hypothetical years of DNA retention, in relation to age of onset and offence type. Findings suggest that the selective deletion of the DNA profiles of younger offenders may be particularly detrimental for subsequent detection rates, and that the seriousness of the offence at first contact may not be an accurate criterion in the decision to delete or retain DNA information. The study also highlights some of the advantages and problems associated with DNA retention policies.

Why do the Crime-reducing Effects of Marriage Vary with Age?

The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development is a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 South London males from age 8 to age 48. In this survey, it was previously found that men who marry relatively early reduce their offending behaviour after marriage, unlike those who marry relatively late. Further analyses confirmed that the original findings were not caused by regression to the mean. Comparisons between those who married at age 25 or older and those who married at age 18–24 on risk factors at age 8–32 suggest that the later-married men tended to be more nervous, more likely to have experienced a broken home, to be drug users and binge-drinkers, to maintain aggressive attitudes from age 18 to 32, and to continue to go out with their male friends after marriage. The later-married men tended to marry older women who had less influence than younger women on their offending behaviour. They were more likely to be long-term low-rate offenders than those who married early.

Assessing Differences Between Short-Term, High-Rate Offenders and Long-Term, Low-Rate Offenders

In empirically assessing offending trajectory groups, some researchers have identified unexpected classes of offenders. Two such groups are (a) short-term, high-rate offenders and (b) long-term, low-rate offenders. On some aggregate benchmarks, such as lifetime volume of crime, these two groups of offenders may be comparable. Yet a more detailed examination of their careers may reveal important distinctions regarding the correlates of offending, the extent of involvement in crime, and associated costs to society. Furthermore, unpacking the history, profile, and trajectory of these two groups of offenders may suggest unique policy options. The authors examined the question of equivalency in these groups and the factors that contribute to their offending using longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development through age 40. Theoretical and policy implications associated with criminal justice response are discussed.

Criminal Offender Trajectories and (White-Collar) Occupational Prestige

Empirical research on criminal career offending patterns has identified distinct offender trajectories that exhibit substantial heterogeneity in both the size and shape of offending over the life course. Very little research however, has examined specific outcomes associated with offending trajectories. This study uses data from several hundred South London males who were part of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development to examine how offender trajectories through age 40 relate to job classification at age 48. Results indicate that high-rate chronic offenders are least likely to hold prestigious white-collar jobs, while non-offenders are the most likely to be in such positions. Directions for future research are highlighted.

A longitudinal analysis of early risk factors for adult‐onset offending: What predicts a delayed criminal career?

Late-onset offending, at the age of 21 or thereafter, is an underexplored dimension of the criminal career. Our aims were to explore which factors are precursors of late-onset offending, and the extent to which adult criminality can be predicted in childhood and adolescence. This is the first study that defines late-onset offending based on a combination of official records and self-reports. Longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) were used. Four hundred and three South London men, followed from ages 8-10 to ages 48-50, were divided into late-starters (LS, n = 51), early-starters (ES, n = 140) and non-offenders (NO, n = 212). LS men were more likely than NO men to have been neurotic, truants or in poor housing at ages 8-10. At ages 12-14, they tended to be neurotic, and at ages 16-18, they had high unemployment and spent time hanging about on the streets. Compared with ES, LS were nervous at ages 8-10, and at age 18 they were more likely to be sexual virgins. Overall, LS men were more similar to NO men before age 21, but more similar to ES men by age 32. Our hypotheses that late-onset offenders would be particularly characterised by neuroticism or nervousness, but that this would buffer rather than fully protect over the life course, were sustained. Intervention to increase the resilience of children and adolescents who are rated as high on neurotic characteristics may lessen the burden that these factors impose in adult life and reduce the risk of a deteriorating quality of life and late onset criminal careers.

Are There Any True Adult-Onset Offenders?

In the extant literature, adult-onset offending has usually been identified using official sources. It is possible, however, that many of the individuals identified would have had unofficial histories of prior offending. To investigate this issue, the men from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) were examined. The CSDD is a prospective longitudinal study of men from inner-city London, followed from age 8 to age 48. Onset of offending was identified using official records and then the self-reported offending of the adult-onset offender group (with a first conviction at age 21 or later) was compared to others. All the adult-onset offenders self-reported some previous offending in childhood and adolescence but most of this offending was not sufficiently frequent or serious to lead to a conviction in practice. About one-third of adult-onset offenders were considered to be self-reported delinquents who were realistically in danger of being convicted because of the frequency of their offending. For some, the adjudication by the criminal justice system was simply the first time that their ongoing pattern of offending had been detected. Their lack of detection was because the types of offences they were committing had lower detection rates.

Trajectories of Offending and Their Relation to Life Failure in Late Middle Age: Findings from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

Researchers have hypothesized that over the life course, criminal offending varies with problems in other domains, including life failure and physical and mental health.To examine this issue, the authors use data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 South London males first studied at age 8 in 1961. Developmental trajectories of criminal activity were defined on the basis of conviction records through age 40, and these were used to predict self-report measures of life failure at age 48 obtained during personal interviews. Results indicate that offending in the first 40 years of life relates to life failure, that childhood risk factors are also implicated in adult life outcomes, and that differences emerge in how offender trajectories predict life failure after controlling for individual and environmental risk factors. This is the first longitudinal investigation to show that chronic offending is associated with life failure into the late 40s, an age period not previously reported, and it also shows that different offending trajectories have different outcomes in late middle age.

Commentary on Pedersen and Skardhamar (2010): Does cannabis use predict non-drug offending?

Commentary on Pedersen and Skardhamar (2010): Does cannabis use predict non-drug offending?

Effects of Getting Married on Offending

In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 411 males were followed up from age 8 to age 48. This analysis of the effects of marriage on offending is based on 162 convicted males. The age of marriage was stratified into early (18—21 years), mid-range (22—24 years), and late (25 years or later). Risk factors at age 8—10 were used to calculate propensity scores that predicted the likelihood of getting married. Convictions before and after the age of first marriage were investigated for married males and for unmarried males who were matched on the number of convictions before marriage and on the propensity score. The results showed that getting married was followed by a reduction in offending but only for early (age 18—21) and mid-range (age 22—24) marriages. The analysis was replicated using risk factors at age 18, with the same results.

Impact of antisocial lifestyle on health: chronic disability and death by middle age

An antisocial lifestyle is associated with injury but also with less organic illness up to the age of 32. It is not known if these associations persist into the fifth decade. Injury and illness data were collected prospectively in the longitudinal Cambridge study in delinquent development at age 43-48. Hypotheses were that childhood predictors of antisocial behaviour and offending and antisocial behaviour at ages up to 32 would be associated with poorer health at age 48. Childhood and parental predictors of offending, self-reported delinquency at age 32 and convictions were significantly associated with death and disability by age 48. A model comprising three factors: any antisocial behaviour and any parental risk factor at age 8-10 and any antisocial behaviour at age 27-32 best discriminated death or disability. Two factors: conviction between ages 10-18 and any antisocial behaviour at age 8-10 discriminated almost as well. Death and disability by age 48 were strongly associated with antisocial behaviour at ages 8-10 and 27-32, convictions and impulsivity during adolescence and parental predictors of offending at age 8-10. Preventing childhood and adolescent antisocial behaviour and offending may also prolong life and prevent disability among those who would otherwise offend.

The Development of Offending from Age 8 to Age 50: Recent Results from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

The Development of Offending from Age 8 to Age 50: Recent Results from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

Family factors in the intergenerational transmission of offending

Convicted parents tend to have convicted children, but there have been few previous studies of transmission between three generations, especially including both records and interviews for hundreds of people. In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), 411 south London males have been followed up from age 8 to age 48. These males (generation 2, G2) are compared with their fathers and mothers (generation 1, G1), and with their biological sons and daughters (generation 3, G3). There was significant intergenerational transmission of convictions from G1 males to G2 males, and from G2 males to G3 males. Convictions of fathers still predicted convictions of sons after controlling for risk factors, but the predictive efficiency was reduced. Transmission was less from G1 females to G2 males, and from G2 males to G3 females. There was little evidence of intergenerational transmission from G1 to G3, except from grandmothers to granddaughters. The intergenerational transmission of offending may be mediated by family, socio-economic and individual risk factors. Intervention to reduce intergenerational transmission could target these risk factors.

Development of adolescence‐limited, late‐onset, and persistent offenders from age 8 to age 48

This article investigates the life success at ages 32 and 48 of four categories of males: nonoffenders, adolescence-limited offenders (convicted only at ages 10-20), late-onset offenders (convicted only at ages 21-50), and persistent offenders (convicted at both ages 10-20 and 21-50). In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 411 South London males have been followed up from age 8 to 48 in repeated personal interviews. There was considerable continuity in offending over time. Persistent offenders had the longest criminal careers (averaging 18.4 years), and most of them had convictions for violence. Persistent offenders were leading the most unsuccessful lives at ages 32 and 48, although all categories of males became more successful with age. By age 48, the life success of adolescence-limited offenders was similar to that of nonoffenders. The most important risk factors at ages 8-18 that predicted which offenders would persist after age 21 were heavy drinking at age 18, hyperactivity at ages 12-14, and low popularity and harsh discipline at ages 8-10. The most important risk factors that predicted which nonoffenders would onset after age 21 were poor housing and low nonverbal IQ at ages 8-10, high neuroticism at age 16, and anti-establishment attitudes and motoring convictions at age 18. It was suggested that nervousness and neuroticism may have protected children at risk from offending in adolescence and the teenage years.

Childhood and Adolescent Predictors of Late Onset Criminal Careers

This study explores the emergence of a criminal career in adulthood. The main hypothesis tested is that late criminal onset (at age 21 or later) is influenced by early factors that delay antisocial manifestations. The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) was used to examine early determinants of criminal behavior. 400 Inner London males were followed from ages 8-10 to 48-50, and were classified as follows: 35 late onsetters who were first convicted at age 21 or later, and did not have high self-reported delinquency at ages 10-14 and 15-18; 129 early onsetters first convicted between ages 10 and 20; and 236 unconvicted males. Odds ratios and logistic regression analyses revealed that the best predictors of late onset offenders compared with early onset offenders included nervousness, having few friends at ages 8-10, and not having sexual intercourse by age 18. The best predictors of late onset offenders compared with nonoffenders included teacher-rated anxiousness at ages 12-14 and high neuroticism at age 16. It is concluded that being nervous and withdrawn protected boys against offending in adolescence but that these protective effects tended to wear off after age 21. These findings show that adult offending can be predicted from childhood, and suggest that early intervention might prevent a variety of maladjustment problems and difficulties in adult life.

Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17-18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17-18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Understanding the Relationship Between Onset Age and Subsequent Offending During Adolescence

This article examines the well-documented relationship between early initiation or onset of criminal behavior and a heightened risk of involvement in offending. Previous research examining this question conducted by Nagin and Farrington (Criminology 30:235-260, 1992a; Criminology 30:501-523, 1992b) used data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development and found that: (1) onset age was correlated with offending involvement; and (2) the correlation could be explained by stable individual differences in the propensity to offend rather than a causal effect of early onset age. In this study, similar analytic methods are applied to data from the Second Philadelphia Birth Cohort. This data set consists of all 13,160 males born in Philadelphia in 1958 who resided in the city continuously from ages 10 to 18, slightly more than half of whom were non-white. Information from each of the youths was collected from schools, juvenile justice agencies, other official sources and surveys. In a model that mimics previous analyses, we initially found that an early age of onset is associated with greater subsequent involvement in delinquent behavior. When unobserved criminal propensity was controlled, however, we found that a late rather than an early onset of delinquency was related to future offending. In finding a state dependent effect for age of onset, our findings are contrary to propensity theory in criminology. In finding that it is late rather early onset which puts youth at risk for future offending, our findings are contrary to developmental/life course theory. Our results are more compatible with traditional criminological theory that is friendly to state dependence processes, though they too have not to date articulated why a late onsetting of offending might be particularly criminogenic.

Key Issues in Criminal Career Research: New Analyses of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

Key Issues in Criminal Career Research: New Analyses of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

Parental imprisonment: Long-lasting effects on boys' internalizing problems through the life course

Qualitative studies suggest that children react to parental imprisonment by developing internalizing as well as externalizing behaviors. However, no previous study has examined the effects of parental imprisonment on children's internalizing problems using standardized instruments, appropriate comparison groups, and long-term follow-up. Using prospective longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, we compared boys separated because of parental imprisonment during their first 10 years of life with four control groups: boys who did not experience separation, boys separated because of hospitalization or death, boys separated for other reasons (usually parental disharmony), and boys whose parents were only imprisoned before the boys' births. Individual, parenting, and family risk factors for internalizing problems were measured when boys were ages 8-11 years. Separation because of parental imprisonment predicted boys' internalizing problems from age 14 to 48, even after controlling for childhood risk factors including parental criminality. Separation because of parental imprisonment also predicted the co-occurrence of internalizing and antisocial problems. These results suggest that parental imprisonment might cause long-lasting internalizing and antisocial problems for children.

A Child Effects Explanation for the Association Between Family Risk and Involvement in an Antisocial Lifestyle

Most dominant theories of crime and criminality underscore the saliency of the family in the etiology of offending behaviors. Recently, a small pool of research has suggested that elements of the family, especially parents, do not have a lasting impact on children. This line of inquiry argues that once the effects that the child has on the family are taken into account, the relationship between family factors and child outcomes will be reduced substantially. The authors use data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development to test the reciprocal effects between the family and the child. The results of their structural equation models reveal that global measures of family risk have a very limited effect on adolescent involvement in an antisocial lifestyle. However, adolescent embeddedness in an antisocial lifestyle negatively affects family functioning. The authors speak of the implications of their findings.