Business Indicators Research Articles

Superstatistics of Labour Productivity in Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Sectors

Labour productivity distribution (dispersion) is studied both theoretically and empirically. Superstatistics is presented as a natural theoretical framework for productivity. The demand indexa is proposed within this framework as a new business index. Japanese productivity data covering small-to-medium to large firms from 1996 to 2006 is analyzed and the power-law for both firms and workers is established. The demand indexa is evaluated in the manufacturing sector. A new discovery is reported for the nonmanufacturing (service) sector, which calls for expansion of the superstatistics framework to negative temperature range.

A Critical Review of Sustainable Business Indices and their Impact

Most studies into the performance of socially responsible investment vehicles have focused on the performance of sustainable or socially responsible mutual funds. This research has been complemented recently by a number of studies that have examined the performance of sustainable investment indices. In both cases, the majority of studies have concluded that the returns of socially responsible investment vehicles have either underperformed, or failed to outperform, comparable market indices. Although the impact of sustainable indices to date has been limited, the recent launch of sustainable indices by Dow Jones and FTSE suggests that more attention is being paid to the subject by financial markets, investors, and companies. This development raises a number of important issues which are reviewed in this article: (a) the performance of indices compared with their benchmark indices; (b) the methodologies employed in compiling the indices; and (c) the impact of the indices on companies and the investment community. The article concludes with a number of suggestions for areas that merit future research.

Media Coverage and Macroeconomic Information Processing

This paper investigates how media coverage influences macroeconomic information processing at the bond market. I provide evidence that a high media coverage of an economic topic increases investor attention prior to the release of the corresponding economic indicator: High media coverage of the business cycle leads to a stronger market reaction to the release of gross domestic product, industrial production and IFO business index than low media coverage. High media coverage of the price level increases the market reaction to the release of producer and consumer price index than low media coverage. High media coverage of unemployment leads to a stronger market reaction to the release of the unemployment rate than low media coverage.

An approach of electric power demand forecasting using data-mining method: a case study of application of data-mining technique to improve decision making

In this paper, the monthly electric demand prediction approach with dynamic and adaptive mechanism connected to the business environment is proposed with the aim of building the management plan of stable electric power supply and accomodation. The proposed prediction adopts the Kalman-Filter as the basic prediction scheme and possesses two characteristics stated below. One is the state-space built with the principal component time-series integrated with time-series PCA (Principal Component Method) from multi business indices related to the targeted time-series. The other is the self-organised auto-updating of the state-space by structured neural networks. The proposed scheme shows considerably more accurate prediction than any other models with single variable time-series and the obvious effect appears to be the high accuracy achieved by adopting time-series PCA as a Data-Mining technique. Given these results, the proposed prediction scheme might be considered to improve stable electric power supply and accommodation. This prediction scheme can be applied to various management areas, and so it might be considered to be an effective method for decision-making support.

Forecasts Based on Official Business Indices in Japan: A Real-Time Analysis

This paper analyses the performance of forecasts of real economic activity based on the Japanese official business indices in a real-time framework. As in other countries, preliminary numbers of the business indices are first announced, then they are revised. These revisions are often substantial, so that the business indices that are available on a real-time basis often differ from their revised form. This paper explores how this difference can affect forecasts. Results indicate that real-time forecasts based on the diffusion leading indexare not significantly worse than forecasts based on the final revised form. Also, the real-time forecasts using the composite leading index are often comparable to those from final revised forms. However, real-time forecasts from the diffusion coincident indexare significantly worse than forecasts that use the final revised form. This work examines real-time forecasts which are based on the official business indices in Japan. These official business indices, called “Keiki Doko Shisu” in Japanese, were formerly compiled by the Economic Planning Agency (EPA), and are currently compiled by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in the Cabinet Office. Since promptness is regarded as important, the indices are first announced in a preliminary form, then they are revised; revisions are carried out repeatedly. Is there a significant difference between forecasts based on the revised and the real-time indices? This paper compares revised and realtime forecasts and evaluates how much they differ. However good the forecasts based on the final revised form are, if forecasts based on business indices that are available in real-time are unsatisfactory, then usefulness of these indices is limited from a practical point of view. The same question over preliminary and revised numbers applies to other countries as well as Japan. Diebold and Rudebusch (1991a) show that realtime forecasts of production increase in the US based on leading business indices are hardly useful, though forecasts based on ex-post revised numbers perform satisfactorily. Diebold and Rudebusch (1991b) show similar results in regard to turning points of the business cycle in the US. There are already many studies on the performance of the official business indices in Japan, but they use business indices that are revised many times and

Start-Up Business Evaluation Model Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

This study develops a start-up business evaluation model for small and medium-sized firms using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The intention is to provide a feasibility test for start-up businesses by calculating the relative weights of the various success factors in new entrepreneurial firms, and thus to develop a methodology for measuring the Start-up Business Index (SBI). The paper focuses on determinants in the start-up process of successful businesses in the USA and Korea that are considered by the entrepreneurs as having been necessary factors in their success.

National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

National economic conditions regularly influence outcomes in U.S. presidential elections. However, beyond this simple finding, much remains unclear. How large are national economic effects? Which macroeconomic indicators? Subjective or objective measures? Retrospective or prospective? What is the role of institutions? In our analysis of the American National Election Studies, 1956-1996, we employ a National Business Index (NBI), an aggregate measure that amalgamates individual voter perceptions of the collective economy. It outperforms other national economic measures and reveals that effects have been underestimated. The assumption of strong retrospective economic voting is tested under different institutional hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, it is not found to be influenced by divided government, but it is heavily influenced by incumbency, meaning in practice whether a popularly elected president is running. Moreover, this incumbency variable highly conditions the time horizon of national economic ...

Business Cycles in Glocal Economy

Business cycle fluctuations are rarely limited to one or a few regions and countries. Instead, when economic conditions change, they tend to affect many regions and countries. We observe three different business cycle patterns between the regional and national economies in Japan:1. Some regional economies tend to fluctuate about three month behind the nationwide one;2. Another regional economies tend to be worsen earlier and improve later than the nationwide one;3. The others tend to be worsen later and improve earlier than the nationwide one. Also we observe various business cycle patterns between Japanese and foreign economies:4. The Japanese business cycle indices tend to lead about five month the DECD business indices;5. The US and Japanese business cycles are countercyclical except of particular periods of time, the earlier periods of highly rapid growth in Japan (1957-1958) and the periods after Oil Shock (1973-1975).We build a Glocal Business Cycle Model based on the business cycle model of Samuelson and Hicks, that is, a multiplier accelerator model. The Glocal Business Cycle Model is used to analyze the business cycles of both the global and local (regional) economy. As the model can be expressed by a simultaneous linear second difference equation system of two regions and a foreign country, the behavior of the system may be very complicated.We show the above business cycle patterns will occur when there are small changes in demand parameters or the initial conditions in the Glocal Business Cycle Model.

Electronic Commerce and Australian Small Firms

In Australia in 1997 there were around 900, 000 non-agricultural small and medium enterprises (SME'S) that accounted for around one-third of GDP and one-half of private sector employment (DEWRSB, 1999, p.52). The important role of these enterprises in economic activity is now well acknowledged (Bridge, et al., 1998). Also generally acknowledged are the potential benefits of electronic commerce (e-commerce) to SME's. These benefits include increased productivity and reduced costs; creation of new opportunities; and, improved access to national and international markets (Clayton, 1998). This paper merely seeks to examine the extent of SME e-commerce activity by presenting descriptive results from an Australia wide, large-scale survey that complements findings from other papers (Hall, 1999) and surveys (Yellow Pages Small Business Index, 1999).

Generic climate maps: A strategic application of climate survey data?

Data have been gathered on 93 organizations and over 3030 individuals using a climate survey. This paper examines the related concepts of climate and culture and points to their importance as root metaphors for organizational analysis. Key research issues surrounding the use of climate surveys are highlighted and a range of strategic applications of climate survey data outlined. A twofold contribution to the literature is made by considering empirical and statistical approaches used in the field and by categorizing the various climates within and across industries. The Business and Organization Climate Index (BOCI) data are analysed statistically in order to examine the practicality and validity of using organizational climate maps as part of a typical management of change intervention. The findings show that the BOCI instrument can be used to create a reliable average profile with a high degree of inter-rater reliability. The methodological issues surrounding such assessments are discussed. Moreover, these organizational profiles can be classified, by use of agglomerative statistical techniques such as cluster analysis, into eight overarching climate maps. These generic climate maps reflect three negative, one neutral and four positive variations of climate. The membership of any particular organization in the cluster is not solely determined by industry sector. However, broad patterns of strategy and organizational process are reflected in the eight clusters. Given that climate surveys reflect individual perceptions, the eight climate maps may be as strong a measure of managers' and workers' cognitive frameworks and judgements as they are representations of organizational behaviour and action.

Electronic Document Delivery:

The Houston Public Library provides Electronic Document Delivery through Uncover, Magazine Index, and Business Index at the Central Library and the regional branches, as well as to remote users. Patrons use their credit cards to pay any charges. Documents can be printed out from the terminals or sent to the user's fax machine. Though the service is popular, use has been less than expected, in part because most patrons are unwilling to pay more than $3.00-34.00 per articlc. The new service has not reduced interlibrary loan, retrievals from closed periodical stacks, or reference requests. As the next step, the Houston Public Library plans to improve its clectronic information infrastructure and to dcvelop the necessary policies and procedures for the increasing use of electronic information.

The Utility of Business Indexes for Accessing Sci-Tech Trade Literature

This study evaluates the use of business indexes to access the trade journal literature as a method of enhancing reference work in science and technology. A review was conducted of Applied Science and Technology Index, Business Index, Predicast U.S., and Lexis/Nexis so that coverage between the sci/tech and the business literature could be compared. Duplication of periodical titles among the business sources was also studied. Finally, several sample online literature searches were performed as indicative of the type and extent of sci-tech coverage in the business literature.

Finding Intercultural Business Communication Research Sites in Companies

The North American Fee Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will increase intercultural communication between business people in Mexico, Canada, and the U.S., creating important opportunities for business communication researchers. Research conducted inside companies could yield useful industry-specific and regional information about communication processes, ways of conducting meetings, use of communication technologies, proposals, marketing letters, product documentation, labels, training programs, letters, and memos. As cultural adaptation occurs, more research will be needed to document ongoing changes. If you're interested in meeting such challenges, this essay will help you identify appropriate companies and contact them. Naturally, your communication research questions, not the availability of data, ought to drive your choice of research sites. There are many interesting and appropriate research questions to pursue (Limaye & Victor, 1991). Carefully thinking through your research plan in advance will make it easier to determine what kind of companies would make the best research sites. Finding a site isn't easy, but if you start your search with your closest resources and then look for more distant (and costly) information sources, you may discover good research contacts and locations fairly inexpensively and efficiently. (For convenience, we assumed our readers were U.S. residents.) FILL IN BACKGROUND WITH INTERNATIONALLY-ORIENTED U.S. SOURCES People who could help you find information about and contacts in Mexican and Canadian companies may be closer than you realize. Look for other faculty members who have conducted research abroad or who have served as consultants in international situations. Review your list of consulting clients. You may have contacts in a company that has a foreign subsidiary. You may have taught a business communication course in a company that is planning to export to Mexico or to establish an office in Canada. Think about your university colleagues as access points: people in finance, risk analysis, languages, political science, history, and similar departments may have the contacts you need. Friends in U.S. companies may have contacts abroad and may be willing to write letters of introduction for you. They may also identify others who have worked for companies that trade abroad, or give you names of colleagues who might have contacts. In addition, their companies may have commissioned consulting reports that they will lend you. Inquire about unprocessed data collections that the company might be willing to permit you to use for your research. For example, a company might store E-mail tapes or correspondence on projects that were conducted with Mexican or Canadian companies. You can search the literature on companies and industries by consulting the following directories in your library: American Export Register, Directory of American Firms Operating in Foreign Countries, Directory of Foreign Firms Operating in the United States, Directory of Foreign Manufacturers in the United States, U.S. Importers and Exporters Directory, and Who Owns Whom (covers North America, as well as other parts of the world). Check the International Directory of Corporate Affiliations or Dunk America's Corporate Families to find subsidiaries that have names different from the company that owns controlling interest. To get company information, start with Disclosure, which sells annual reports on foreign companies either on-line, on microfiche, or on paper (some in the native language of that country). Disclosure , Predicast, and ABInform also have global compact disks available, which your library may own. Indexes and periodicals may lead directly to the information you need about a prospective research site. Look at Business Index, the Business Periodicals Index, Predicast F&S, and Public Affairs Information Service. Periodicals and newspapers likely to have articles about companies you could consider as a research site include Journal of Commerce, International Herald Yvibune, London Times, Flnancial Times, Wall Street Journal, and The Economist (which does many extensive reports on countries' industries). …

On the dynamic behavior of Schinasi's business cycle model

We investigate thoroughly Schinasi's business cycle model, a disequilibrium IS-LM model augmented by a government budget constraint, in the case of pure money financing. The model has the two- and three-dimensional versions. For the former case, we prove rigorously the existence of limit cycles by the Poincaré-Bendixson theorem and show that three variables of the model, money supply, output and interest rate, correspond to the leading, coincident and lagging indicators of the usual business index, respectively. For the latter case, closed orbits are considered by the Hopf bifurcation theorem and imagination. Finally, the results obtained in the two- and three-dimensional cases are compared.

Mogućnosti racionalizacije poslovanja cestovnoga transportnog poduzeća

This paper deals with identifying the existing state of affairs and possibilities for restructuring of a medium operator with the objectives of higher efficiency and optimum operations. The author advocates the concept of having the basic approach to such restructuring governed by the functional principle within the scope of the registered business of the company. The paper further deals with the present level of engagement of the company as well as the trend of business indices on completed transport services as compared with the last fiscal year. A technical and utilization analysis of transport capacities in passenger and freight transport has been completed with particular reference to the issues of maintenance and reliability of the motor pool placing accent on to the need for the introduction of a programmed preventive maintenance of vehicles. Particular attention has been paid to the services/ /garage division whose operations primarily viewed from the aspect of prevention measures should considerably contribute to the higher level of optimum operational aspect of the motor pool. The existing management chart of the urban and suburban transport has been committed to analysis.

Free Bank Letters as Sources of Economic and Financial Information

In the face of rising periodical and electronic data costs, free bank letters are excellent sources for statistics, analysis, and projections of regional, national, and international economic and financial conditions. Serveral private and many government-owned banks, both in the U.S. and abroad, publish these periodicals and distribute them free of charge. Many foreign banks publish their bank letters in English-language editions. Bank letters vary from newsletter size (4 pages) to full-length journal size. They usually follow a similar format, giving a summary of economic and financial condiations, often including projectioins for the future, followed by tables, graphs, and charts of economic and financial data. Access to bank letters is available through both printed and computerized economic and business indexes and abstracting services.

A comparison of accounting indexes

Chapman is business reference librarian, University of Alabama. Many types of people look for accounting information-practicing accountants, researchers, students in accounting courses, and businesspeople, among others. The types of information they look for varies also--government regulations, professional standards, empirical research, practical examples. Accounting periodical literature is an important source for each of these types of information. Regulations and standards are announced and their significance discussed; scholarly articles are presented; and practicing CPAs describe techniques or suggest solutions to common problems. However, to take full advantage of the information contained in accounting periodicals, good indexing has to be available. This study compares the access to accounting periodical literature offered by four indexes. Two of the indexes specifically address accounting: Accountants' Index and Accounting Articles. The other two indexes are general business indexes which include accounting as one of the many business topics they cover: Business Periodicals Index, a familiar H. W. Wilson index held by many libraries, and ABI/INFORM on Disk, one of the more popular CDROM products which provide bibliographic references to business sources. The study will describe how well the general business indexes cover accounting periodicals and to what extent the specialized indexes can expand that coverage. It will compare the number of accounting periodicals covered by each and, for a given sample periodical issue, examine both the number of items covered and the number of access points per item.

Forecasting local business activity from aggregate indicators

A regional forecasting technique is developed which combines national and local indicators to provide forecasts of local business activity. A regional business index is first developed to provide a time series from which the historical pattern of local business activity may be evaluated. The relationship between this time series and a similarly constructed national indicator series are first examined with cross-spectral analysis. The information from this analysis is used to guide the formulation of a transfer function time series model. Out-of-sample forecasts are then generated with the transfer model and a univariate ARMIA model. A comparison of these two forecasts to the actual regional index reveals that the transfer model provides a superior forecast.

Infotrac and Africa

InfoTrac is an online periodicals index developed and marketed by the Information Access Company (IAC), of Belmont, California. It is very “user friendly” by design, and can provide for readers printouts of citations in a matter of a few seconds without the assistance of a librarian. The InfoTrac database itself consists primarily of citations from nearly 1000 journals which are also indexed by IAC its Business Index, Magazine Index, and Legal Resources Index retrospective to 1982. In addition material from the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal as indexed in its National Newspaper Index for the previous two months will be found in InfoTrac. The data base is cumulated and updated monthly. In all accounts, both verbal and written, InfoTrac is enormously popular with readers. Much of this popularity, however, seems to focus on the technology of InfoTrac obscuring some important issues not the least of which are the accessibility of the journals indexed and the reliability and relevance of the information to which an unassisted reader is quickly lead.

The influence of economic business cycles on United States suicide rates.

A number of social science investigators have shown that a downturn in the economy leads to an increase in the suicide rate. However, the previous works on the subject are flawed by the fact that they employ years as their temporal unit of analysis. This time period is so large that it makes it difficult for investigators to precisely determine the length of the lag effect, while at the same time removing the autocorrelation effects. Also, although most works on suicide and the business cycle employ unemployment as a measure of a downturn in the business cycle, the average duration of unemployment represents a better measure for determining the social impact of an economic downturn. From 1947 to 1977 the average monthly duration of unemployment is statistically related to the suicide rate using multivariate time-series analysis. From 1910 to 1939 the Ayres business index, a surrogate measure for movement in the business cycle, is statistically related to the monthly suicide rate. An examination of the findings confirms that in most cases a downturn in the economy causes an increase in the suicide rate.