Burned Area Research Articles

Predicting Forest Fire Area Growth Rate Using an Ensemble Algorithm

Due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions, the Liangshan Prefecture region is highly prone to large fires. There is an urgent need to study the growth rate of fire-burned areas to fill the research gap in this region. To address this issue, this study uses the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm to optimize the hyperparameters in the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, constructing a GWO-XGBoost model. Finally, the optimized ensemble model (GWO-XGBoost) is used to create a fire growth rate warning map for the Liangshan Prefecture in Sichuan Province, China, filling the research gap in forest fire studies in this area. This study comprehensively selects factors such as monthly climate, monthly vegetation, terrain, and socio–economic aspects and incorporates monthly reanalysis data from forest fire assessment systems in Canada, the United States, and Australia as features to construct the forest fire dataset. After collinearity tests to filter redundant features and Pearson correlation analysis to explore features related to the burned area growth rate, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) is used to oversample the positive class samples. The GWO algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters in the XGBoost model, constructing the GWO-XGBoost model, which is then compared with XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR) models. Model evaluation results showed that the GWO-XGBoost model, with an AUC value of 0.8927, is the best-performing model. Using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value analysis method to quantify the contribution of each influencing factor indicates that the Ignition Component (IC) value from the United States National Fire Danger Rating System contributes the most, followed by the average monthly temperature and the population density. The growth rate warning map results indicate that the southern part of the study area is the key fire prevention area.

Epidemiological characteristics and outcomes of special-cause burns: analysis of 33,619 burn patients in a major regional burn center in China from 2004 to 2021

Special-cause burn injuries are usually more severe and difficult to manage, and often contribute to a high mortality in severely injured patients. The aim of this study was to present the epidemiological characteristics of special-cause burn in a major regional burn center in China between 2004 and 2021 and determine the risk factors associated with the mortality of burn patients. A total of 33,619 burn patients were included the study, among which 4,452 (13.2%) were special-cause burn patients. Compared to the thermal burn group, the special-cause burn patients were usually male, elder, married and III-IV degree of burn with onset of upper extremity in summer and autumn. Moreover, a greater proportion of patients in the special-cause burn group underwent surgical treatment and amputation and had a higher median hospital stay and treatment costs. During the multivariate logistic regression, older age, male, unmarried, winter, III-IV degree of burn, ≥ 3 burn sites, and larger total body surface area (TBSA) of burn were significantly associated with higher burn mortality (all P < 0.05), however, patients with special-cause burn injuries have not increased odds for mortality (P > 0.05). These results suggested that special cause-burn patients suffer more severe injuries, resulting in longer hospital stays and higher health care expenditures, but it did not significantly increase the mortality risk. Therefore, burn clinicians should not only have the responsibility to cure burns, but also need to know and popularize burn epidemiological characteristic and precaution.

Brown bear habitat use patterns across 19 years of population expansion in the Cantabrian Mountains

ContextLarge carnivores have faced severe extinction pressures throughout Europe during the last centuries, where human-induced disturbances reached unprecedented levels. In the late twentieth century, the Cantabrian brown bear population was on the verge of extinction, due to poaching. Yet, the end of the last century was a turning point for this population. Presence data on the western Cantabrian subpopulation was collected since the beginning of the century and insights provided by this long-term monitoring may be useful for brown bear conservation.ObjectivesHere, we aim to: (i) identify the landscape features relevant to bears’ recovery; and (ii) understand if and how the landscape use patterns by bears changed over time.MethodsWe tested the influence of landscape structure (i.e., composition and configuration) on bear occurrence patterns using MAXENT in three periods representative of land cover change.ResultsDespite variation across the 19-year monitoring period, brown bears were more often detected near broad-leaf forests and bare rock areas and at lower to intermediate altitudes, but avoided arable lands, permanent crops, and burnt areas. Human population density or distance to roads—often used for modelling habitat suitability for Cantabrian brown bears—were not identified as relevant variables for this brown bear subpopulation. Artificial areas were identified as relevant landscape features, but not as disturbance.ConclusionsThese findings reinforce the importance of preserving bears’ native habitats and provide new insights, namely on the use of humanized landscapes.

Co-occurrence of marine and atmospheric heatwaves with drought conditions and fire activity in the Mediterranean region

Climate change has become a major concern in the twenty-first century, leading to the amplification of extreme events and, consequently, to severe impacts on society, economy and ecosystems. Heatwave conditions in particular, often coupled with extended periods of dryness, have an important contribution in exacerbating rural fires. Here, we propose to analyse the co-occurring interplay between atmospheric heatwaves and droughts in southern Europe, and marine heatwaves in the East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, between 2001 and 2022, highlighting their linkage to wildfires, on both an individual and compound approach. Positive correlations between air and sea temperatures and negative correlations between air temperature and precipitation values were found. Our analysis reveals that severe wildfires are mostly associated with reduced precipitation and/or elevated air temperatures during the summer season, alongside heightened sea surface temperatures. Marine hot (drier) conditions are prevalent for months in which burned areas remain below (above) the 80th percentile. Months marked by higher fire activity are predominantly associated with extreme climatic conditions, showcasing a substantial occurrence of compound events. This study highlights the potential of considering both land-based atmospheric and marine conditions when exploring compound extremes, crucial for mitigating climatic disasters. Moreover, it highlights the role played by compound extreme events in fire management strategies, particularly considering the present context of climate change and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme events threatening ecosystem stability.

Nomogram for predicting the risk of anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns

BACKGROUND Post-burn anxiety and depression affect considerably the quality of life and recovery of patients; however, limited research has demonstrated risk factors associated with the development of these conditions. AIM To predict the risk of developing post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns using a nomogram model. METHODS We enrolled 675 patients with burns who were admitted to The Second Affiliated Hospital, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China between January 2019 and January 2023 and met the inclusion criteria. These patients were randomly divided into development (n = 450) and validation (n = 225) sets in a 2:1 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the risk factors associated with post-burn anxiety and depression diagnoses, and a nomogram model was constructed. RESULTS Female sex, age &lt; 33 years, unmarried status, burn area ≥ 30%, and burns on the head, face, and neck were independent risk factors for developing post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns. The nomogram model demonstrated predictive accuracies of 0.937 and 0.984 for anxiety and 0.884 and 0.923 for depression in the development and validation sets, respectively, and good predictive performance. Calibration and decision curve analyses confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSION The nomogram model predicted the risk of post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns, facilitating the early identification of high-risk patients for intervention and treatment.

Wildfire effects on mercury fate in soils of North-Western Siberia

Arctic soils store 49 Gg mercury (Hg) – an extremely toxic heavy metal, whereas soil Hg can be released to the atmosphere by wildfires. For the first time we investigated the effects of wildfires on the fate of soil Hg in North-Western (NW) Siberia based on GIS maps of areas burned during the last 38 years and a field paired comparison of unburned and burned areas in tundra (mosses, lichens, some grasses, and shrubs) and forest-tundra (multi-layered canopy of larch trees, shrubs, mosses, and lichens). These field surveys were deepened by soil controlled burning to assess the Hg losses from organic horizon and mineral soil. The soil Hg stocks in the organic horizon and in the top 10 cm of the mineral soil were 3.3 ± 0.6 and 16 ± 3 mg Hg m−2 for unburned tundra and forest-tundra, respectively. After the burning by wildfires, the soil Hg stocks decreased to 2.4 ± 0.1 and 6.6 ± 0.2 mg Hg m−2 for tundra and forest-tundra, respectively. By the averages annual burned areas in NW Siberia 527 km2, wildfires in tundra and forest-tundra released 0.19 and 2.9 Mg soil Hg per year, respectively, corresponding to 28 % and 59 % of the initial soil Hg stocks. These direct effects of wildfires on Hg volatilization are raised by indirect post-pyrogenic consequences on Hg fate triggered by the vegetation succession and adsorption of atmospheric Hg on the surface of charred biomass. Charred lichens and trees accumulated 4–16 times more Hg compared to the living biomass. Blackened burned vegetation and soil reduced surface albedo and slowly increased soil temperatures in Arctic after wildfires. This created favorable conditions for seeding grasses and shrubs after wildfire and transformed burned high-latitude ecosystems into greener areas, increasing their capacity to trap atmospheric Hg by vegetation, which partly compensate the burning losses of soil Hg.

Waste Combustion Releases Anthropogenic Nanomaterials in Indigenous Arctic Communities.

Arctic autochthonous communities and the environment face unprecedented challenges due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. One less-explored aspect of these challenges is the release and distribution of anthropogenic nanomaterials in autochthonous communities. This study pioneers a comprehensive investigation into the nature and dispersion of anthropogenic nanomaterials within Arctic Autochthonous communities, originating from their traditional waste-burning practices. Employing advanced nanoanalytical tools, we unraveled the nature and prevalence of nanomaterials, including metal oxides (TiO2, PbO), alloys (SnPb, SbPb, SnAg, SnCu, SnZn), chromated copper arsenate-related nanomaterials (CuCrO2, CuCr2O4), and nanoplastics (polystyrene and polypropylene) in snow and sediment near waste burning sites. This groundbreaking study illuminates the unintended consequences of waste burning in remote Arctic areas, stressing the urgent need for interdisciplinary research, community engagement, and sustainable waste management. These measures are crucial to safeguard the fragile Arctic ecosystem and the health of autochthonous communities.

Prehospital treatment of severely burned patients: a retrospective analysis of patients admitted to the Berlin burn centre

BackgroundPrehospital management of severely burned patients is extremely challenging. It should include adequate analgesia, decision-making on the necessity of prehospital endotracheal intubation and the administration of crystalloid fluids. Guidelines recommend immediate transport to specialised burn centres when certain criteria are met. To date, there is still insufficient knowledge on the characteristics of prehospital emergency treatment. We sought to investigate the current practice and its potential effects on patient outcome.MethodsWe conducted a single centre, retrospective cohort analysis of severely burned patients (total burned surface area > 20%), admitted to the Berlin burn centre between 2014 and 2019. The relevant data was extracted from Emergency Medical Service reports and digital patient charts for exploratory data analysis. Primary outcome was 28-day-mortality.ResultsNinety patients (male/female 60/30, with a median age of 52 years [interquartile range, IQR 37–63], median total burned surface area 36% [IQR 25–51] and median body mass index 26.56 kg/m2 [IQR 22.86–30.86] were included. The median time from trauma to ED arrival was 1 h 45 min; within this time, on average 1961 ml of crystalloid fluid (0.48 ml/kg/%TBSA, IQR 0.32–0.86) was administered. Most patients received opioid-based analgesia. Times from trauma to ED arrival were longer for patients who were intubated. Neither excessive fluid treatment (> 1000 ml/h) nor transport times > 2 h was associated with higher mortality. A total of 31 patients (34,4%) died within the hospital stay. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that non-survival was linked to age > 65 years (odds ratio (OR) 3.5, 95% CI: 1.27–9.66), inhalation injury (OR 3.57, 95% CI: 1.36–9.36), burned surface area > 60% (OR 5.14, 95% CI 1.57–16.84) and prehospital intubation (5.38, 95% CI: 1.92–15.92).ConclusionWe showed that severely burned patients frequently received excessive fluid administration prehospitally and that this was not associated with more hemodynamic stability or outcome. In our cohort, patients were frequently intubated prehospitally, which was associated with increased mortality rates. Further research and emergency medical staff training should focus on adequate fluid application and cautious decision-making on the risks and benefits of prehospital intubation.Trial registrationGerman Clinical Trial Registry (ID: DRKS00033516).

Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires.

More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021% (∼2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.

Application of Getis-Ord Correlation Index (Gi) for Burned Area Detection Improvement in Mediterranean Ecosystems (Southern Italy and Sardinia) Using Sentinel-2 Data

This study collects the results obtained using the Getis-Ord local spatial autocorrelation index (Gi) with the aim of improving the classification of burned area detection maps generated from spectral indices (i.e., dNBR index) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data. Therefore, the work proposes an adaptive thresholding approach that also includes the application of a similarity index (Sorensen–Dice Similarity Index) with the aim of adaptively correcting classification errors (false-positive burned pixels) related to the spectral response of burned/unburned areas. In this way, two new indices derived from the application of the Getis-Ord local autocorrelation analysis were created to test their effectiveness. Three wildfire events were considered, two of which occurred in Southern Italy in the summer of 2017 and one in Sardinia in the summer of 2019. The accuracy assessment analysis was carried out using the CEMS (Copernicus Emergency Management Service) on-demand maps. The results show the remarkable performance of the two new indices in terms of their ability to reduce the false positives generated by dNBR. In the three sites considered, the false-positive reduction percentage was around 95–96%. The proposed approach seems to be adaptable to different vegetation contexts, and above all, it could be a useful tool for mapping burned areas to support post-fire management activities.

Clinical and Epidemiological Profile of Deep Second Degree Burn Patients Treated with Platelet Lysate

The wound healing process in burn victims is still a problem today despite the advances made in the management of these patients with the different resuscitation regimens, the advent of antibiotic therapy as well as the different local treatments used. The local application of a high concentration of growth factor through the use of halogenic platelet concentrates lyzed by freezing- thawing has been done in the past with the aim of accelerating the healing process of the various wounds. The aim of this work is to describe Clinical and epidemiological profile of deep second degree burn patients treated with platelet lysate. A longitudinal and prospective study was carried out in 30 adult patients with deep second-degree burns with boiling water with a burned body surface area ≤ 5%, treated locally with allogeneic platelet lysate in the Burn centre and Plastic Surgery Service of the General Hospital “Dr. Juan Bruno Zayas Alfonso” in Santiago de Cuba, during the period of February 2015 to February 2016.A total of 30 adult patients have been studied. The mean age was 33.93. Female sex predominated with a male/female ratio of 1/2. The most frequent location of burns was in the lower limbs accounting for 36.6% of patients, followed by the upper limbs and anterior trunk at 26.7% in both cases. For the study group, the epitelization time was less than 21 days and in the majority of cases (66.7%) this time was 7-13 days. Non-relevant side effects were observed in 80% of patients and included pruritus (50%), perilesional erythema (8.3%) and pain in 29.2% of patients. Apart from these side effects, no complications have been observed in our patients. The promising results reported in this study and in the literature warn that platelet lysate may become a potential therapeutic candidate for deep second- degree burns from boiling water.

Anthropogenic and meteorological effects on the counts and sizes of moderate and extreme wildfires

AbstractThe growing frequency and size of wildfires across the US necessitates accurate quantitative assessment of evolving wildfire behavior to predict risk from future extreme wildfires. We build a joint model of wildfire counts and burned areas, regressing key model parameters on climate and demographic covariates. We use extended generalized Pareto distributions to model the full distribution of burned areas, capturing both moderate and extreme sizes, while leveraging extreme value theory to focus particularly on the right tail. We model wildfire counts with a zero‐inflated negative binomial model, and join the wildfire counts and burned areas sub‐models using a temporally‐varying shared random effect. Our model successfully captures the trends of wildfire counts and burned areas. By investigating the predictive power of different sets of covariates, we find that fire indices are better predictors of wildfire burned area behavior than individual climate covariates, whereas climate covariates are influential drivers of wildfire occurrence behavior.

Automatic Methodology for Forest Fire Mapping with SuperDove Imagery.

The global increase in wildfires due to climate change highlights the need for accurate wildfire mapping. This study performs a proof of concept on the usefulness of SuperDove imagery for wildfire mapping. To address this topic, we present an automatic methodology that combines the use of various vegetation indices with clustering algorithms (bisecting k-means and k-means) to analyze images before and after fires, with the aim of improving the precision of the burned area and severity assessments. The results demonstrate the potential of using this PlanetScope sensor, showing that the methodology effectively delineates burned areas and classifies them by severity level, in comparison with data from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). Thus, the potential of the SuperDove satellite sensor constellation for fire monitoring is highlighted, despite its limitations regarding radiometric distortion and the absence of Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) bands, suggesting that the methodology could contribute to better fire management strategies.

Fire behavior simulation of Xintian forest fire in 2022 using WRF-fire model

IntroductionThe behavior of forest fire is a complex phenomenon, and accurate simulation of forest fire is conducive to emergency response management after ignition. In order to further understand the characteristics of forest fire spread and the applicability of WRF-Fire in China, which is a coupled fire-atmospheric wildfire model, this study simulated a high-intensity forest fire event that occurred on October 17, 2022 in Xintian County, southern Hunan Province.MethodsBased on the fire-atmosphere coupled WRF-Fire model, we used high-resolution geographic information, meteorological observation and fuel classification data to analyze the forest fire behavior. At the same time, the simulation results are compared with the fire burned area observed by satellite remote sensing forest fire monitoring data.ResultsThe study found that, the simulated wind speed, direction and temperature trends are similar to the observation results, but the simulated wind speed is overestimated, the dominant wind direction is N, and the temperature is slightly underestimated. The simulated wind field is close to the actual wind field, and the simulation results can show the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the local wind field under complex terrain while obtaining the high-resolution wind field. The simulated fire burned area is generally overestimated, spreading to the north and southwest compared with the observed fires, but it can also capture the overall shape and spread trend of the fire well.DiscussionThe results show that the model can accurately reproduce the real spread of fire, and it is more helpful to forest fire management.

Serum procalcitonin and C-reactive protein as indices of early sepsis and mortality in North Indian pediatric burn injuries: a prospective evaluation and literature review.

Delays in diagnosing sepsis in children afflicted with thermal injuries can result in high morbidity and mortality. Our study evaluated the role of the biomarkers Procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as predictors of early sepsis and mortality, respectively, in this group of patients. This was a prospective evaluation of 90 pediatric burn cases treated at a tertiary care burn center in Northern India. Patients, aged 1-16 years, presenting within 24 hours of being burned, with >10% body surface area of burn injury were included in the study. Levels of PCT and CRP were measured on days 1, 3, 5, and 7. Patients were followed until discharge, 30th post-burn day, or death, whichever occurred first. Sepsis was clinically present in 49 of 90 (54.4%) cases with a median 30% total body surface area (TBSA) of burns. Mortality was seen in 31 of 90 (34.4%) cases with a median of 35% TBSA burns. High PCT and CRP were seen in the sepsis group, particularly on days 3, 5, and 7. PCT was also significantly higher in the mortality group (days 1 and 3). While PCT was a good early predictor of sepsis and mortality in children with burns, CRP was reliable as a predictor of sepsis only. Both markers, however, can serve as adjuncts to culture sensitivity reports for diagnosing early onset sepsis and initiation of antibiotic therapy in appropriate patients.

Will fire-smart landscape management buffer the effects of climate and land-use changes on fire regimes?

BackgroundLong-term farmland abandonment has increased fuel build-up in many Euro-Mediterranean mountainous regions. The high fuel hazard in these landscapes, combined with ongoing climate change, is increasing the frequency of extreme wildfires, thus altering contemporary fire regimes. Mitigating the loss of the landscape’s capacity to regulate large and intense fires is crucial to prevent future harmful effects of fires. As such, effective strategies to manage these fire-prone landscapes are needed. Yet, further understanding of their performance under global change scenarios is required. This study assessed the effects of fire-smart management strategies on future landscape dynamics, fire regulation capacity (FRC), and fire regime in a Mediterranean fire-prone mountainous landscape in Portugal (30,650 ha) undergoing long-term land abandonment and climate change scenarios. For that, we applied the LANDIS-II model under climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and long-term farmland abandonment (2020–2050) according to three fire-smart management strategies focused on fire prevention compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) strategy based on fire suppression.ResultsFuture fire activity and land dynamics resulted in changes that fostered landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation and favoured fire-adapted forests and agroforestry systems while decreasing the dominance of shrublands and croplands. FRC decreased over time, particularly under RCP 8.5 and the BAU strategy. In turn, fire-smart strategies better prevented large and intense fires than the BAU strategy, but their effectiveness decreased under RCP 8.5. The loss of FRC resulted in increased burned area and fire frequency, which predicts a shift from contemporary fire regimes but more markedly under RCP 8.5 and in the BAU strategy.ConclusionsFire-smart strategies outperformed BAU in averting current fire regime intensification. Merging forest- and silvopasture-based management is the most promising approach in taming the effects of climate and farmland abandonment on future fire activity. Our study underlines that planning and management policies in fire-prone Mediterranean mountain landscapes must integrate fire-smart strategies to decrease landscape fuel hazard and buffer the impact of global change on future fire regimes.

The Impact of Platelet Transfusion on Prognosis in Adult Burn Patients with Thrombocytopenia: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Background and ObjectivesThrombocytopenia is common among burn patients. Platelet transfusion is frequently administered to increase platelet counts. However, it is not clear whether platelets affect the outcome after transfusion among adult burn patients with thrombocytopenia or not. Our aim is to explore whether platelet transfusion affects the prognosis of adult burn patients with thrombocytopenia. Materials and MethodsWe undertook a retrospective analysis of 368 adult burn victims with thrombocytopenia from the Department of Burn at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, China, from January 2014 to July 2021. Propensity score matching (PSM) was utilized to reduce the selection bias and confounding factors. After PSM, both platelet transfusion group and no platelet transfusion group had 46 patients. Our primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. ResultsLogistic multivariate regression analysis showed that third-degree burn area [β=-0.040, odds ratio (OR) =1.052, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.015-1.091] and platelet transfusion (OR =2.227, 95% CI =0.473-10.483) were independent risk factors (P<0.05). KaplanMeier risk curve analysis showed that the 30-day mortality of patients in the platelet transfusion group and no platelet transfusion group were 47.8% and 19.6%, respectively (P<0.05) ConclusionPlatelet transfusion was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality in adult burn patients with thrombocytopenia.

Machine learning approach to burned area mapping for Southern California

ABSTRACT Accurate representation of the location and amount of burned areas is vital to the understanding of patterns and impacts of fires. Some extant burned area maps appear to have high commission errors, which lead to an overrepresentation of burned area. The primary research objective of this study was to assess whether region-specific training data used for machine learning routines improve accuracy of burned area products for western San Diego County. We used training data derived from fine-scale aerial orthoimagery to create and compare three training sets, each with a different Landsat scale sub-pixel burn threshold: 20%, 50%, or 80%. Meaning either 20%, 50%, or 80% of a 30 m × 30 m pixel had to burn for the entire pixel to be classified as burned. High-resolution orthoimagery was used for the creation of the training/testing data as well as determining which sub-pixel threshold leads to more accurate burned area representation. These training data were input into a gradient-boosted regression model. We compared the burned area product from the region-specific gradient boosted model (L-GBRM) to the three products: Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, Fire and Resource Assessment Program, and the Landsat Burned Area product. We found >20% sub-pixel burn threshold of a Landsat pixel yielded the most accurate classification results. We used a 50% sub-pixel burn threshold for the reference data to compare the results to since the burned area associated with it is closely aligned with the high-resolution orthoimagery determined burn area. The L-GBRM was the most accurate product while also mapping the smallest area burned, suggesting that the extant products have relatively high commission errors. Using region-specific training data achieved a higher accuracy than nationwide training data. Looking at sub-pixel burn thresholds for creating a burned area map could prove to make a more accurate map in terms of area burned represented.

Assessing four decades of fire behavior dynamics in the Cerrado biome (1985 to 2022)

BackgroundFire significantly transforms ecology and landscapes worldwide, impacting carbon cycling, species interactions, and ecosystem functions. In the Brazilian Cerrado, a fire-dependent savanna, the interaction between fire, society, and the environment is evident. Given that wildfires significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, our study aimed to analyze four decades of burned area data to understand changes in fire dynamics, using Collection 2 of annual MapBiomas Fire maps (1985 to 2022). Our study examined spatiotemporal patterns, fire recurrence, fire distribution across land uses, temporal changes in fire scar size, burned area variations across ecoregions, and their correlation with farming areas.ResultsFrom 1985 to 2022, fire impacted 40% (792,204 km2) of the Cerrado biome, with 63% burning more than once. Natural vegetation was the most affected, primarily due to human-driven ignition during the dry season. A noticeable trend of later peaks in fire activity, concentrated towards the end of the dry season, along with an increase in patch size over time, characterized a clear shift in the Cerrado fire regime. Recently, the MATOPIBA region and the northern biome exhibited significant fire clusters, with burned areas rising alongside farming expansion. The ecoregion-based analysis identified fire hotspots, with the "Bananal" ecoregion, the largest wetland area in the biome, exhibiting increased fire recurrence and larger patch size over time.ConclusionsOur four-decade analysis of fire dynamics in the Cerrado revealed human-induced changes in the fire regime, originally shifting from July to September to a new fire season from August to October. This shift poses several environmental threats given their overlap with the driest months of the year. This study improved our understanding of changes in fire patterns and their impacts on each ecoregion and land use. Wetlands experienced the highest relative burned area, highlighting their ecological importance and increased vulnerability. In the southern Cerrado, where farming is established and natural vegetation more fragmented, fire events tend to decrease; while in the north, with recent farming expansion, fire susceptibility rises. Conservation-oriented strategies, like the Brazilian Integrated Fire Management (MIF), are crucial for mitigating impacts while enhancing the Cerrado’s resilience to climate change.

Assessment of the effectiveness of coarse resolution fire products in monitoring long-term changes in fire regime within protected areas in South Africa

Although high-resolution satellite and in situ airborne observations are becoming a common data source for fire monitoring, reconstruction of the historical fire record is based on less suitable data. In many regions, managers and policy-makers rely solely on coarse resolution global fire datasets. This study assessed the suitability of readily available products to accurately depict several fire metrics by comparing them to the manually derived fire scars within three natural reserves in South Africa (2003–2020). Contrary to previous findings, we showed that MCD64A1 and FireCCI51 products detected the majority of the burned area (70–97 %) within protected areas and showed high temporal consistency. Additionally, active and burned area products accurately detected the length and the peak of the fire season. Nonetheless, we found neither medium nor coarse resolution data suitable for evaluating long-term changes in fire size distribution. Coarse resolution burned area products demonstrated a very limited capacity to detect fires smaller than 100 ha, while a lack of sufficient non-cloudy Landsat images led to substantial gaps in fire reconstruction, bringing an unknown level of uncertainties in fire metrics estimates. Similarly, the only available medium-resolution burned area product (GABAM) was unsuitable for fire monitoring since unmapped areas were classified as unburned, making no distinction between regions with an absence of data and an absence of fires. Meanwhile, the performance of FireCCILT11 was ranked the lowest among all the available fire products. Given the lack of resources in many protected areas in South Africa and the pressing need to evaluate current and historical fire management practices and policies, we conclude that, in the absence of a more accurate higher-resolution alternative, MCD64A1 was the most suitable product for capturing year-to-year fluctuations in fire activity and a combination of MODIS and VIIRS active fire products for monitoring changes in fire seasonality.