Bureau For Economic Policy Analysis Research Articles

A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy - Methodological and Empirical Revision of the Cpb System

Since 1990 the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a leading indicator in preparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recent methodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPB leading indicator. Special attention is paid to the role and significance of IFO data. The structure of the CPB leading indicator is tailored to its use as a supplement to model-based projections, and thus has a unique character in several respects. The system of the CPB leading indicator is composed of ten separate composite indicators, seven for expenditure categories (demand) and three for the main production sectors (supply). This system approach has important advantages over the usual structure, in which the basis series are directly linked to a single reference series. The revised system, which uses 25 different basic series, performs quite well in describing the economic cycle of GDP, in indicating the upturns and downturns, and in telling the story behind the business cycle.

Market structure and innovation in the telecommunications sector

A debate continues on whether the structural separation of incumbent telecommunications operators would increase competition in telecommunications markets leading to a more dynamic industry. John Cubbin and David Currie, the future Chairman of OfCom, and the OECD have both contributed to this debate. More recently (in Issue 4 of this Volume) Professor Martin Cave asked the question “Is LoopCo the answer?”. In the light of the regulators’ objectives in the new EU framework to promote efficient investment, this article answers some of Professor Cave’s arguments against structural separation and sets out a framework for analysing the impact of separation on innovation in the sector and in other industries which use telecommunications as a key input. The article draws on work conducted by other academics, notably The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and Michael Porter.

New Competition in Telecommunications Markets: Regulatory Pricing Principles

Launching and stimulating competition in telecommunications markets is an important policy goal. It contains two elements: to encourage entry and to make competition effective such that consumers benefit. The first one requires that entrants can make profits after investing in infrastructure so that they have an incentive to invest. The second one requires prices to be sufficiently low so that consumers enjoy higher net utilities. At a first glance, these two elements seem difficult to achieve at the same time. In this paper, we consider price regulation in the retail and wholesale market and answer to what extent such regulatory policy can stimulate competition. Our main finding is that, in the short run, asymmetric access price regulation is an effective instrument to make the entrant and consumers better off. JEL Classification: L96, L51, L13. Paul de Bijl CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis P.O.Box 8051

Economic Impacts of Multilateral Emission Reduction Policies

Using an applied general equilibrium model, we explore the impacts of uniform reduction targets, a uniform carbon tax, and permit trading in the Annex 1 countries for the period 2000-2020. Next, we assess the impacts of enlarging the A-1 coalition to the globe, and allow for global permit trading. The impacts suggest among others that more research is necessary on how to change the size of the coalition. This project is funded by the Dutch Ministry of Environment (VROM), the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), and the National Institute of Public health and the Environment (RIVM). The authors thank Ben Geurts, Andre de Jong, Carl Koopmans, Paul Tang and Hans Timmer (CPB) and Rob Swart (RIVM) for their comments on the simulations, and Nico van Leeuwen (CPB) for providing the figures. The views and conclusions do not reflect general views of VROM, CPB, or RIVM. Responsibility for any errors made in this paper remain with the authors.

The relevance of economic modelling for policy decisions

The development of macro-econometric models is influenced by policy makers and vice versa. In this paper the situation in this field in the Netherlands is sketched. The CPB National Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis plays a special role. While in other countries various institutes and ministries evaluate economic policy and prepare forecasts, in the Netherlands these functions are concentrated within the CPB. This approach holds some (scale) advantages, which should be used to make progress in the evaluation of new problems with which policy makers are confronted.

CPB models and employment policy in the Netherlands

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis plays an important role in the preparation of economic policy in the Netherlands. This paper addresses the interaction between CPB models and employment policy during the period 1950–1997. We discuss several examples of the impact of CPB models on employment policies. At the same time, the specific needs of policy makers influenced model building at the CPB. Several innovations of CPB models were needed to explain the actual developments on the Dutch labour market and to investigate the usefulness of various remedies addressing the disequilibria on this market.

Economic development and trade in the world economy

Trade with emerging economies may depress wages of unskilled workers in rich countries. This problem has been discussed extensively in recent years. The present paper contributes to that discussion by applying a calibrated model of the world economy (WorldScan) from CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. As appears from a counterfactual analysis trade with developing countries could explain about half of the increase in skill premium observed in some developed economies. Growth in emerging economies is often driven by capital accumulation. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts what may happen in a model with many countries and many goods. However, that theory is based on a number of simplifying assumptions. It remains to be seen if the results are robust if the problem of capital accumulation is analyzed in the context of WorldScan.

The Road to Economic and Monetary Union

KyklosVolume 50, Issue 1 p. 83-110 The Road to Economic and Monetary Union A. L. Bovenberg, A. L. BovenbergSearch for more papers by this authorA. H. M. DeJong, A. H. M. DeJong CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, P. O. Box 80510, 2508 GM The Hague, The Netherlands. The authors would like to thank Peter van den Berg, Henk Don, Sylvester Eijffinger, Paul de Grauwe, Alexander Italianer, Gert-Jan Koopman, Ruud Lubbers, Paul Tang and Gerrit Zalm for helpful comments.Search for more papers by this author A. L. Bovenberg, A. L. BovenbergSearch for more papers by this authorA. H. M. DeJong, A. H. M. DeJong CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, P. O. Box 80510, 2508 GM The Hague, The Netherlands. The authors would like to thank Peter van den Berg, Henk Don, Sylvester Eijffinger, Paul de Grauwe, Alexander Italianer, Gert-Jan Koopman, Ruud Lubbers, Paul Tang and Gerrit Zalm for helpful comments.Search for more papers by this author First published: 28 June 2008 https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6435.00005Citations: 3 AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Citing Literature Volume50, Issue1February 1997Pages 83-110 RelatedInformation