Statistical Bulletin Research Articles

EFFECT OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of financial inclusion on economic development in Nigeria, with the aim of analysing the interplay between the two variables through a review of relevant literature and empirical evidence. Theoretical Framework: The finance-growth theory posits that development of financial systems cultivates an environment conducive to growth, operating through demand-following mechanism. This theory provides a solid basis for understanding the context of the investigation. Method: Financial inclusion was proxied through money supply, which represents the size of the banking sector, while credit to the private sector measures the size and financial depth of the banking sector. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins and the World Development Indicators. Results and Discussion: The findings indicate both short-term and long-term relationships between financial inclusion and economic growth, aligning with the theoretical framework. The implications and relationships identified are discussed within this context, including potential discrepancies and study limitations. Research Implications: The practical and theoretical implications of this research are discussed, providing how the results can be applied or influence practices in the field of financial management. These implications could encompass inclusive economic growth and sustainable development. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the need to design and implement interventions that promote financial inclusion while addressing the specific needs of diverse demographics. The relevance and value of this research are evidenced by its emphasis on advancing financial inclusion as a catalyst for driving economic development in Nigeria.

Transport and Electricity Infrastructures and Economic Growth and Development in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

Economic postulations suggest that the interrelationship between changes in incomes, capital and labour which can be substituted into macroeconomic neoclassical and steady-state growth theories drives economic development. Arising from the above economic axiom, this study investigated the impact of transport and electricity infrastructures on economic development and growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The study used panel data from fifteen (15) sub-Saharan African countries. Panel data were obtained from statistical bulletins of the various countries and World Bank Indicators (WBI) from 2000-2022. Data obtained were analyzed via descriptive, diagnostic and inferential statistics. Specifically, the fixed and random effects regression revealed that while there is a significant relationship between transportation and electricity infrastructures and economic growth, an insignificant relationship was found between transportation and electricity infrastructures and economic development in the selected sub-Saharan African countries. Based on the findings, it was recommended among others that governments in sub-Saharan Africa needs to increase their contributions and support for electricity and transportation infrastructures; this can be done by increasing budgetary allocation for critical infrastructures in countries of sub-Saharan Africa

Framework for Examining the Correlation Between Trade Liberalization and Employment in Nigeria

This research examines the relationship between trade liberalization and employment in Nigeria using a retrospective research approach. The study considers variables such as the employment rate, trade openness index, foreign direct investment, and currency exchange rate. The analytical framework combines classical linear regression and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models to capture both short-term and long-term dynamics. Diagnostic tests, including descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Perron Unit Root Test, ARDL-Bound test, and Error Correction Model (ECM)-ARDL test, are conducted to analyze the collected data. The study utilizes secondary data from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (2018) covering the period from 1985 to 2018. The findings of the study are mixed. The error correction estimates indicate a negative relationship between the trade openness index and the employment rate. On the other hand, foreign direct investment shows a negative relationship with employment rate, but this relationship is not statistically significant. The exchange rate demonstrates a positive and significant correlation with the employment rate. It was recommended that, Diversifying Nigeria's economy by promoting domestic industries like agriculture, manufacturing, and services to create job opportunities and reduce import dependence. Implement effective labor market policies including job training, worker protections, and competitive labor market measures to mitigate negative impacts of trade liberalization on employment. Target FDI to sectors with high job creation potential, incentivizing investments, supporting technology transfer, and fostering partnerships for employment growth in Nigeria.

Public Sector Capital Expenditure and Tax Revenue Generation in Nigeria

Public sector capital expenditure is an important issue that cannot be ignored due to how it relates to tax revenue generation in Nigeria. This study examined the impact of public sector capital expenditure on tax revenue generation proxy by petroleum profit tax (PPT) in Nigeria. The baseline theory of this study is the Keynesian theory. The research design adopted in this study is the quasi-experimental research design. Secondary data was collected from the National Bureau of Statistics and CBN statistical bulletin. The multiple regression analysis based on the OLS method aided by E-view version 12 computer software was used to analyse the data, and the results were used to test the hypotheses. The findings showed positive significant relationship between the capital expenditure on road construction and PPT in Nigeria. It also revealed a significant positive relationship between capital expenditure on power, light and that PPT in Nigeria. The study revealed significant positive relationship between capital expenditure on security and PPT in Nigeria. Therefore, the study concluded that public sector capital expenditure played a vital role in improving tax revenue generation in Nigeria. The study recommends that since there is a positive relationship between capital expenditure on security, road construction and power with that of PPT, the variables should be sustained in this study. Government should look for means to solve the security challenges in the country, construct more roads, revolutionize electricity and power generation so as to enhance tax revenue generation in Nigeria.

Research & Development and Employees Productivity in Public Service of Nigerian Fourth Republic

Research & Development and Employees Productivity in Public Service of Nigerian Fourth Republic 1Casey Ngozi Egbon-Charles 2 Danjuma Bwese Tanko, 3 Nasamu Gambo (PhD), 4 Judith Aimiebenomo Ehiaguina, 5 Fredrick Yakubu 1,2,3,4,5Nile University of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria doi: https://doi.org/10.37745/gjhrm.2013/vol12n4108130 Published July 14, 2024 Citation: Egbon-Charles C.N., Tanko D.B., Gambo N., Ehiaguina J.A.,and Yakubu F. (2024) Research & Development and Employees Productivity in Public Service of Nigerian Fourth Republic, Global Journal of Human Resource Management, Vol.12, No.4, pp.108-129 Abstract: This study examines the impact of research & development on employees’ productivity in public service of Nigerian fourth republic from 1999 to 2023. The annual data for the study is sourced from World Bank’s Development Indicators (WDI) and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The dependent variable is employee’s productivity proxied by total factor productivity while the explanatory variables are research & development expenditure as percentage of GDP, employee compensation proxied for income and institutional quality components of governance effectiveness and regulatory quality. The preliminary test of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test reveals mixed order of integration among the series under consideration, which reinforces the choice of Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) as estimation technique. The ARDL bounds result reveal the existence of long-run among the series under consideration. On the result, the series of research & development exhibit negative and significant relationship with employee productivity in the Nigerian public service. The complementary series of employee compensation exert negative effect and significant impact on employee productivity. Also, governance effectiveness further exerts negative and insignificant nexus while regulatory quality demonstrates significant positive effect on employee productivity. This study concludes that research & development has not enhanced employee productivity in the Nigeria public service within the period considered. Therefore, the research recommends the need for government agencies and parastatals to make adequate provision for resources to fund high-quality training programs for public sector employees. This can include providing on-the-job training, skill development workshops, and opportunities for continuous learning and professional development.

The Effect of Capital Market on Industrial Development of Nigeria

The study examined the effect of capital market on industrial development in Nigeria for the period of 33 years spanning from 1990-2022. The independent variable employed in study are; market capitalization (MCAP), Industrial loan (INDL), Total volume (TV) and GFCF (Gross fixed capital formation), and industrial development proxy Industrial Output (INDOPT). Data were collected from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank data for 1990-2022. Data set was described using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis ARDL with the help of E-VIEW version 9.0. The study concluded that MCAP, TV have significant relationship with INDOPT both on the short & long run respectively, meanwhile GFCF has significant relationship with INDOPT only on the long run. The study thereby recommends that positive impact of total volumes calls for proper policies to be implemented so as to attract more investors to invest in the market. There is also need to relax some stringent registration and operating procedures to enable more people and organizations to participate in the market. There is also need to institute policies that will further increase the value of market transaction in the market.

EFFECTS OF INTEREST RATE STRUCTURE AND ENERGY PRICES ON MANUFACTURING OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

Until recent years, the performance of the Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been characterized by downward pressures. Given the present shocks in the global energy markets and upward review of borrowing costs by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the historical developments around the manufacturing output appear to be subject to renewal. Consequently, this study investigates the impact of interest rate structure and energy pricing on the Nigerian manufacturing output from 1980 to 2021. Secondary data obtained from World Development Indicators and the CBN’s Statistical Bulletins were anchored by an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and error correction modelling. The findings revealed that manufacturing output is inelastic in its response to changes in interest rate while it is elastic in its response to energy price. This is less puzzling as the Nigerian manufacturers seem to favour availability of credit facilities over low interest rates. Also, productive activities respond immediately to a given shock in the energy price, especially the price of diesel. On this basis, this paper concludes that energy pricing is a strong predictor of Nigeria’s manufacturing output. Consequently, policy makers should institute a preferential treatment on energy distribution towards the manufacturers. This would make production more attractive, thereby boosting their capacity utilization.

Impact of National Debt Burden on Indonesia's Economic Stability

This research asserts that national debt becomes burdensome when there is an increase in debt overhang, a lack of foreign reserves to pay for short-term external debt and a lack of revenue from the government to pay for debt service. The purpose of this study is to investigate the connection between Indonesia's economic stability and national burden debt. Data collected from 2000 to 2022, sourced from the World Development Indicators and the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Indonesia (2022 edition), were utilized. The factors used to quantify the obligation trouble are the all out obligation to-Gross domestic product proportion (obligation overhang), the momentary outer obligation to-saves proportion (hold sufficiency), and the obligation administration cost-to-government income proportion (income ampleness). The exchange rate is considered a control variable. The real growth rate of GDP is used to evaluate economic stability. The analysis is carried out using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which takes into account first differences and the stationary nature of the variables at both levels. The ARDL estimation demonstrates that revenue sufficiency has a significant and negative impact on economic stability over time, with the overall effect of the explanatory variables decreasing over time.

The Dance of Two Instruments: How Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interact in Nigeria

This study examined the nature of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. It also investigates the channels through which impulses from fiscal and monetary policy interaction are transmitted to inflation, output and exchange rate. These were intended to provide information on the nature of interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. Quarterly secondary data covering the period between 1980Q1 and 2022Q1 were used in the study. Data on real gross domestic product, consumer price index, lending rate, real exchange rate and total government expenditure were sourced from international financial statistical (2022Q4 Edition) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (2009 and 2022Q4 Issues). Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) econometric model was employed for the analysis of data. The results showed that interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria is characterised by the way shock occurred. This indicated that the interaction between both policies showed a substitutive nature when the shocks resulted from aggregate demand and supply shocks, whereas the policies complemented each other when other macroeconomic shocks occur due to policy changes occurred. The study also revealed that investment and consumption are the channels through which impulses are transmitted into inflation, output and exchange rate. The study concluded that the nature of relationship between fiscal and monetary policy is dependent on shocks.

Impact of Monetary Policy on Importation in Nigeria (1990-2020)

This study ascertained the effect of monetary policy on importation in Nigeria covering the period 1990 – 2020. Data for the study were extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The method of data analysis used is the linear regression method with the application of the Error Correction Model (ECM). The major findings of the study reveal that interest rate has a negative and insignificant effect on importation in Nigeria, exchange rate has a positive and insignificant effect on importation in Nigeria, broad money supply has a positive and significant effect on importation in Nigeria and there is a causal relationship between importation, trade openness and broad money supply. It is therefore the recommendation of the study that there is need for boosting domestic production so as to contend high level of import that may have a detrimental effect on our external reserves. Secondly; the Nigerian authorities should carry out reforms that would enhance the role of interest rate in order to mobilize funds for trade purposes.

CO2 emissions–economic growth nexus: Validity of EKC in oil‐exporting and oil‐importing countries

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to examine and compare the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve and the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, per capita GDP, fossil fuel consumption, oil prices and foreign direct investment in advanced oil‐importing and oil‐exporting countries from 1970 to 2020. The researchers consider these nations for their dependency on oil resources and their different economic characteristics. The Westerlund (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2007, 69, 709) co‐integration test shows that the studied variables are co‐integrated in the long run in both panels of the countries. The pooled mean group‐autoregressive distributed lag (PMG‐ARDL) model established by Pesaran et al. (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1999, 94, 621), which assesses the short‐ and long‐run nexus between the variables of interest, detects statistically significant associations, providing evidence to support the hypothesis of EKC in both groups. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and fossil fuel consumption have long‐term positive effects on CO2 emissions. The main difference between both groups of countries is that oil price has a positive effect on CO2 emissions in oil‐exporting countries, while it has a negative effect on environmental degradation in oil‐importing countries. The study suggests increasing investment in renewable energy infrastructure by encouraging research and development, providing subsidies and tax incentives for renewable energy companies and promoting large‐scale renewable energy projects as they contribute to environmental quality.

Foreign Direct Investment and the Nigerian Economy: An Empirical Analysis

The primary motive of this paper was to investigate the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on economic growth of Nigeria from 1985 to 2022. Ex – post facto research design was carefully carried out; annual time series data were extracted from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of 2021 and World Development Indicator. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as the dependent variable proxy for economic growth. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Exchange Rate (EXCR), Trade Openness (TOPN) and Inflation (INF) all denoted for explanatory variables of the study. The estimated coefficients of the variables under study displayed that all the variables are integrated of the same order 1(1) exception of Foreign Direct Investment which was integrated of order 1(0). The bound test conducted showed that there is proof of the presence of a long run correlation among the variables used while the causality test clearly showed that FDI granger causes economic growth in Nigeria under review. Other diagnostic tests seen in this paper are unit root test, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient matrix, Cointegration test and test of Normality respectively, and they long-established the validity and reliability of the model used. Based on the inferential results revealed by the research work, the paper came up with recommendation that government should improve the investment climate for both domestic and foreign investors through adequate infrastructural development, soft loans and tax holidays.

Effect of Remittance Inflow on Economic Growth of Nigeria

This study examined the effect of remittance inflow on economic growth of Nigeria. The study specifically analyzed the short run and long run of personal remittance inflow on annual growth rate of gross domestic product of Nigeria. The study focused on Nigeria over the period of 41 years spanning from 1981 to 2021.This study employed secondary time series data obtained from World development Index and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Data collated were analyzed by correlation analysis and unit root test, co-integration test, and Error correction model estimation. Result showed that on the short run remittance inflow exert insignificant negative effect on GDP growth of Nigeria (-0.337970, p > 0.05), while on the long remittance inflow exerts significant positive effect on GDP growth rate (1.973835, p < 0.05). This study established that inflow of personal remittance on the short run might be detrimental to the level of economic growth Nigeria if not channeled to productive engagement by recipients in the home country. Meanwhile on the long run, when the inflow rises consistently, the tendency to boost the level of economic growth is Nigeria is high and significant. Hence this study recommends the need for policies and programs as well as appropriate system reforms that encourage utilization of remittance for productive purposes. In addition there is need to put in place structure that will checkmate the rate of brain drain in the country, so as not to trade our quality human capital just for funds flow that might not necessarily be channeled equitably for productive activities in the short and intermediate term.

Economic Sustainability and Gas Flaring in Nigeria

The crude oil exploration leads to the flaring gas, which affects Nigerian economic sustainability. The empirical study is to inquire about the profitable (economic) sustainability of the flaring of natural gaseous substances in Nigeria. The survey is to employ the ready-made design through the National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Department of Petroleum Resources, and World Development Indicators. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test are employed as the estimation technique and unit root test for long-range presence association between the exogenous and explained variables. The findings of the study showed an insignificantly positive outcome of profitable (economic) growth on natural gas flaring in Nigeria. The current employment rate showed a positively insignificant impact on the gas flare. The current oil revenue value showed a positively significant impact on gas flaring. Meanwhile, the oil revenue lag showed an insignificantly negative impact on Nigerian naturally flared gaseous substances. The research recommends that the relevant natural gas authorities should put in place stringent laws to reduce the flaring of natural gas consequences to the well-being of humans, the environment, and the economic growth and development of the country. Alternatively, the government should encourage sound and viable gas flaring processes of industrial and domestic usage.

Domestic Debt and Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria (1980 - 2021)

This study investigated the relationship between domestic debt and exchange rate stability in Nigeria using data for the period 1981 to 2021. Domestic debt was disaggregated into treasury bills (TBILLS), treasury bonds (TBONDS) and Federal Government bonds (FGNB) as well as other sources of debt (OTHERS). Exchange rate stability was proxied by Nigerian naira/US dollar exchange rate. Data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2021 and analyzed using a combination of Johansen cointegration, granger causality and co- integrating regression adopting the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) technique. The findings showed that there is no long-run relationship between domestic debt and exchange rate stability. Also, TBILLS, TBONDS and OTHERS positively and significantly affect exchange stability in the short run at 5% level of significance while FGNB has a positive but insignificant short run relationship with exchange rate stability at 5% level of significance. It was also revealed that domestic debt variables (TBILLS, TBONDS and FGNB as well as OTHERS), does not granger cause exchange rate stability at the 5% level of significance. The study concluded that domestic debt significantly affects exchange rate stability in the short run but domestic debt has no long-run relationship with exchange rate stability, and there is no causal relationship between domestic debt and exchange rate stability. The study recommended among others that domestic debt variables are actually contracted using short term instruments. Thus, they should be used to maximally ensure short- and medium-term stability in exchanges.

Private and Public Investment: Are they Substitute or Complementary in Driving Economic Growth in Nigeria?

The paper investigates the relationship between government and private investment with a view to ascertaining their complementarity or substitutability in driving economic growth in Nigeria for the period of 1981-2021. To achieve the objective, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) models and nonlinear Granger causality tests were employed to analyze annual secondary data which were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Findings show that government investment expenditure displayed a positive and long-term influence on private investment, suggesting a “crowding-in” effect where increased public investment stimulates private investment thereby fostering overall economic growth. Economic adversities or reduced public investment exerted a substantial negative impact on private investment, underscoring the complementarity of government investment expenditure in driving economic growth in Nigeria. Also, the nonlinear Granger causality tests reveal unidirectional relationship as government investment expenditure causes private investment across various embedding dimensions, emphasizing the positive influence of government investment on private investment. The findings generally suggest the need for balanced fiscal policies, prioritizing productive government investments, encouraging private investment, controlling inflation, and making time-sensitive policy decisions to promote economic growth in Nigeria.

POLITICS OF THE FUEL SUBSIDY REGIME, SUBSIDY REMOVAL, AND NIGERIA’S EXTERNAL RELATIONS

This study examines the implications of fuel subsidy removal for Nigeria’s external relations. Employing the ex-post facto research design, the primary data for the study were generated from focus group discussions with foremost economists, policy analysts, and experts in the oil sector. Other information was sourced from texts, periodical reports of the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, and Nigerian Statistical Bulletin. A qualitative descriptive method is used to analyse the data. Anchored on a theoretical perspective of linkage politics, the study finds that subsidy removal, which is Nigeria’s domestic policy, has far-reaching impacts on the nation’s external relations. The policy ultimately shapes relations between Nigeria and other states on the global scene. Nigeria must effectively manage the challenges brought about by subsidy removal to maintain and strengthen its international ties and to open doors for more trade and investment with nations that are strategic to its development aspirations.

Impact of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

The effect of the exchange rate on GDP growth in Nigeria from 1985–2021, according to this analysis. The World Bank's World Development Indicator (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) Statistical Bulletin were used as secondary sources of data. The real exchange rate served as a stand-in for the actual exchange rate, while real gross domestic product was used to gauge economic growth. We used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to find out how integrated the series was. The bound test was used to test for cointegration. The bound test found that the exchange rate and economic growth are related in the long term. This research used the autoregressive distributed lag technique to estimate the short- and long-term effects of the exchange rate on GDP growth. The ARDL analysis shows that there is a weak negative correlation between the exchange rate and GDP growth. According to the research, trade openness has a small but favorable effect on GDP growth. Furthermore, the research indicated that foreign exchange reserves significantly and positively impacted economic development. There was also a negative and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and GDP growth. The analysis found that the exchange rate did not have a significant role in determining Nigeria's economic development. Given the importance of a stable and predictable exchange rate in boosting economic development, the research suggests that monetary authorities implement a policy primarily aimed at stabilizing exchange rates.

Cashless Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The impeding infrastructural decay, inefficient security system on financial information and the high rate of cybercrime impedes efficient and effective electronic payment system which in turn affects the attainment of objective of cashless policy in Nigeria. In view of this, this study examined the relationship between cashless policy and economic growth of Nigeria. Specifically, the study aimed at ascertaining the relationship between web-based transactions, POS transactions and ATM transactions with real GDP of Nigeria over a period of 10 years (2013-2022). This study adopted the ex-post facto design with data obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange fact books, National Bureau of statistics (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins for the various years under study. The collected data for this study were computed and analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression tools with the aid of SPSS 20.0 software. The findings revealed that POS transactions and ATM transactions have an insignificant positive relationship with real GDP while web-based transactions showed an insignificant inverse relationship. Based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA), the F-change test suggests that the model is statistically significant (p-value = 0.020<0.05). This implies that the joint effect of the predictor variables is statistically significant. In view of this, it is however concluded that cashless policy plays a critical role in improving the economic growth of Nigeria. The study recommended, amongst others, that policymakers should prioritize initiatives that promote secure online transactions, such as implementing robust cyber security measures and ensuring a reliable internet infrastructure.

Exchange Rate And National Output Performances: The Implication On Nigeria’s Economy

The study investigated the effect of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. The data were obtained from Statistical Bulletin published by the Central Bank of Nigeria 2021. The empirical studies reviewed had divergent views on the impact of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria. The study began with the test of unit root using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philip-Peron (PP) unit root tests, followed by Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM). The VECM indicated that exchange rate appreciation contracts output. The granger causality tests revealed that exchange rate and economic growth reinforce one another. However, based on these findings, it becomes imperative to build adequate foreign reserve to cushion-off trade shocks, promote import substitute industries, diversification of economy and enhance export oriented industries and reduction in cost of borrowing to enable domestic firms to benefit from the theoretical advantages of exchange rate variation. These measures promote the performances of macroeconomic variables in Nigeria.