Bull Seismol Soc Research Articles

An Evaluation of Earthquake Hazard Potential for Different Regions in Western Anatolia Using the Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Data

We applied the maximum likelihood method produced by Kijko and Sellevoll (Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 1989; Bull Seismol Soc Am 82:120–134, 1992) to study the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for the different regions in western Anatolia (WA). Since the historical earthquake data are very important for examining regional earthquake hazard parameters, a procedure that allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two has been applied in this study. By using this method, we estimated the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude \( \hat{M}_{\max } , \) the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known \( \hat{b} \) value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The whole examined area is divided into 15 different seismic regions based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The probabilities, return periods of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m and the relative earthquake hazard level (defined as the index K) are also evaluated for each seismic region. Each of the computed earthquake hazard parameters is mapped on the different seismic regions to represent regional variation of these parameters. Furthermore, the investigated regions are classified into different seismic hazard level groups considering the K index. According to these maps and the classification of seismic hazard, the most seismically active regions in WA are 1, 8, 10 and 12 related to the Aliaga Fault and the Buyuk Menderes Graben, Aegean Arc and Aegean Islands.

Stochastic ground-motion simulation of two Himalayan earthquakes: seismic hazard assessment perspective

The earthquakes in Uttarkashi (October 20, 1991, M w 6.8) and Chamoli (March 8, 1999, M w 6.4) are among the recent well-documented earthquakes that occurred in the Garhwal region of India and that caused extensive damage as well as loss of life. Using strong-motion data of these two earthquakes, we estimate their source, path, and site parameters. The quality factor (Q β ) as a function of frequency is derived as Q β (f) = 140f 1.018. The site amplification functions are evaluated using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The ground motions of the Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes are simulated using the stochastic method of Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 73:1865–1894, 1983). The estimated source, path, and site parameters are used as input for the simulation. The simulated time histories are generated for a few stations and compared with the observed data. The simulated response spectra at 5% damping are in fair agreement with the observed response spectra for most of the stations over a wide range of frequencies. Residual trends closely match the observed and simulated response spectra. The synthetic data are in rough agreement with the ground-motion attenuation equation available for the Himalayas (Sharma, Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1063–1069, 1998).

A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named “Newmark displacement”) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to ~0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years.

Erratum to: Effects of air temperature on the cyclic behavior of elastomeric seismic isolators

We found that one of the references in this paper is incorrect. More specifically, George PM (2010) Effect of fault rupture characteristics on near-fault strong ground motions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(1):37–58 should be replaced by Mavroeiidis GP and Papageorgiou AS (2010) Effect of fault rupture characteristics on near-fault strong ground motions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(1):37–58 In addition, in the sixth paragraph of section 3.2 Effects due to prolonged exposure to low temperatures, “George (2010)” shouldbe replacedby“Mavroeidis andPapageorgiou (2010)”.

Improved 2-D attenuation analysis for Northern Italy using a merged dataset from selected regional seismic networks

A merged, high-quality waveform dataset from different seismic networks has been used to improve our understanding of lateral seismic attenuation for Northern Italy. In a previous study on the same region, Morasca et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1936–1946, 2008) were able to resolve only a small area due to limited data coverage. For this reason, the interpretation of the attenuation anomalies was difficult given the complexity of the region and the poor resolution of the available data. In order to better understand the lateral changes in the crustal structure and thickness of this region, we selected 770 earthquakes recorded by 54 stations for a total of almost 16,000 waveforms derived from seismic networks operating totally or partially in Northern Italy. Direct S-wave and coda attenuation images were obtained using an amplitude ratio technique that eliminates source terms from the formulation. Both direct and early-coda amplitudes are used as input for the inversions, and the results are compared. Results were obtained for various frequency bands ranging between 0.3 and 25.0 Hz and in all cases show significant improvement with respect to the previous study since the resolved area has been extended and more crossing paths have been used to image smaller scale anomalies. Quality-factor estimates are consistent with the regional tectonic structure exhibiting a general trend of low attenuation under the Po Plain basin and higher values for the Western Alps and Northern Apennines. The interpretation of the results for the Eastern Alps is not simple, possibly because our resolution for this area is still not adequate to resolve small-scale structures.

A κ Model for Mainland France

An important parameter for the characterization of strong ground motion at high-frequencies (>1 Hz) is kappa, κ, which models a linear decay of the acceleration spectrum, a(f), in log-linear space (i.e. a(f) = A 0 exp(− π κ f) for f > f E where f is frequency, f E is a low frequency limit and A 0 controls the amplitude of the spectrum). κ is a key input parameter in the stochastic method for the simulation of strong ground motion, which is particularly useful for areas with insufficient strong-motion data to enable the derivation of robust empirical ground motion prediction equations, such as mainland France. Numerous studies using strong-motion data from western North America (WNA) (an active tectonic region where surface rock is predominantly soft) and eastern North America (ENA) (a stable continental region where surface rock is predominantly very hard) have demonstrated that κ varies with region and surface geology, with WNA rock sites having a κ of about 0.04 s and ENA rock sites having a κ of about 0.006 s. Lower κs are one reason why high-frequency strong ground motions in stable regions are generally higher than in active regions for the same magnitude and distance. Few, if any, estimates of κs for French sites have been published. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate κ using data recorded by the French national strong-motion network (RAP) for various sites in different regions of mainland France. For each record, a value of κ is estimated by following the procedure developed by Anderson and Hough (Bull Seismol Soc Am 74:1969–1993, 1984): this method is based on the analysis of the S-wave spectrum, which has to be performed manually, thus leading to some uncertainties. For the three French regions where most records are available (the Pyrenees, the Alps and the Cotes-d'Azur), a regional κ model is developed using weighted regression on the local geology (soil or rock) and source-to-site distance. It is found that the studied regions have a mean κ between the values found for WNA and ENA. For example, for the Alps region a κ value of 0.0254 s is found for rock sites, an estimate reasonably consistent with previous studies.

Estimation of Strong Ground Motions for 2001 Bhuj (M w 7.6), India Earthquake

The strong ground motions for the 2001 Bhuj (Mw 7.6) India earthquake have been estimated on hard rock and B/C boundary (NEHRP) levels using a recently modified version of stochastic finite fault modeling based on dynamic corner frequency (Motazedian and Atkinson in Bull Seismol Soc Am 95, 995–1010 2005). Incorporation of dynamic corner frequency removes the limitations of earlier stochastic methods. Simulations were carried out at 13 sites in Gujarat where structural response recorder (SRR) recordings are available. In addition, accelerograms were simulated at the B/C boundary at a large number of points distributed on a grid. The corresponding response spectra have also been estimated. The values of peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations at three periods (0.4, 0.75 and 1.25 s) are presented in the form of contour maps. The maximum value of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the center of meizoseismal zone is 550 cm/s2. The response spectral acceleration in same zone is 900 cm/s2 (T = 0.4 s), 600 cm/s2 (T = 0.75 s) and 300 cm/s2 (T = 1.25 s). The innermost PGA contour is on the fault plane. A comparison of the PGA values obtained at 13 sites in this study with those obtained in earlier studies on the same sites, but employing different methods, show that the present PGA values are comparable at most of the sites. The rate of decay of PGA values is fast at short distances as compared to that at longer distances. The PGA values obtained here put some constraints on the expected values from a similar earthquake in the region. A synthetic intensity map has been prepared from the estimated values of PGA using an empirical relation. A comparison with the reported intensity map of the earthquake shows the synthetic MMI values, as expected, are lower by 1 unit compared to reported intensity map. The contour map of PGA along with the contour maps of spectral acceleration at various periods permit the assessment of damage potential to various categories of houses and other structures. Such information will be quite important in planning of mitigation and disaster management programs in the region.

Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We extend existing branching models for earthquake occurrences by incorporating potentially important estimates of tectonic deformation and by allowing the parameters in the models to vary across different tectonic regimes. We partition the Earth’s surface into five regimes: trenches (including subduction zones and oceanic convergent boundaries and earthquakes in outer rise or overriding plate); fast spreading ridges and oceanic transforms; slow spreading ridges and transforms; active continental zones, and plate interiors (everything not included in the previous categories). Our purpose is to specialize the models to give them the greatest possible predictive power for use in earthquake forecasts. We expected the parameters of the branching models to be significantly different in the various tectonic regimes, because earlier studies (Bird and Kagan in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2380–2399, 2004) found that the magnitude limits and other parameters differed between similar categories. We compiled subsets of the CMT and PDE earthquake catalogs corresponding to each tectonic regime, and optimized the parameters for each, and for the whole Earth, using a maximum likelihood procedure. We also analyzed branching models for California and Nevada using regional catalogs. Our estimates of parameters that can be compared to those of other models were consistent with published results. Examples include the proportion of triggered earthquakes and the exponent describing the temporal decay of triggered earthquakes. We also estimated epicentral location uncertainty and rupture zone size and our results are consistent with independent estimates. Contrary to our expectation, we found no dramatic differences in the branching parameters for the various tectonic regimes. We did find some modest differences between regimes that were robust under changes in earthquake catalog and lower magnitude threshold. Subduction zones have the highest earthquake rates, the largest upper magnitude limit, and the highest proportion of triggered events. Fast spreading ridges have the smallest upper magnitude limit and the lowest proportion of triggered events. The statistical significance of these variations cannot be assessed until methods are developed for estimating confidence limits reliably. Some results apparently depend on arbitrary decisions adopted in the analysis. For example, the proportion of triggered events decreases as the lower magnitude limit is increased, possibly because our procedure for assigning independence probability favors larger earthquakes. In some tests we censored earthquakes occurring near and just after a previous event, to account for the fact that most such earthquakes will be missing from the catalog. Fortunately the branching model parameters were hardly affected, suggesting that the inability to measure immediate aftershocks does not cause a serious estimation bias. We compare our branching model with the ETAS model and discuss the differences in the models parametrization and the results of earthquake catalogs analysis.

DIRDOP: a directivity approach to determining the seismic rupture velocity vector

Directivity effects are a characteristic of seismic source finiteness and are a conse- quence of the rupture spread in preferential di- rections. These effects are manifested through seismic spectral deviations as a function of the observation location. The directivity by Doppler effect method permits estimation of the direc- tions and rupture velocities, beginning from the duration of common pulses, which are identified in waveforms or relative source time functions. The general model of directivity that supports the method presented here is a Doppler analy- sis based on a kinematic source model of rup- ture (Haskell, Bull Seismol Soc Am 54:1811-1841, 1964) and a structural medium with spherical sym- metry. To evaluate its performance, we subjected the method to a series of tests with synthetic data obtained from ten typical seismic ruptures. The experimental conditions studied correspond with scenarios of simple and complex, unilater- ally and bilaterally extended ruptures with dif- ferent mechanisms and datasets with different levels of azimuthal coverage. The obtained re- sults generally agree with the expected values. We also present four real case studies, applying the

An automatic scheme for baseline correction of strong-motion records in coseismic deformation determination

Coseismic deformation can be determined from strong-motion records of large earthquakes. Iwan et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 75:1225–1246, 1985) showed that baseline corrections are often required to obtain reliable coseismic deformation because baseline offsets lead to unrealistic permanent displacements. Boore (Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:1199–1211, 2001) demonstrated that different choices of time points for baseline correction can yield realistically looking displacements, but with variable amplitudes. The baseline correction procedure of Wu and Wu (J Seismol 11:159–170, 2007) improved upon Iwan et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 75:1225–1246, 1985) and achieved stable results. However, their time points for baseline correction were chosen by a recursive process with an artificial criterion. In this study, we follow the procedure of Wu and Wu (J Seismol 11:159–170, 2007) but use the ratio of energy distribution in accelerograms as the criterion to determine the time points of baseline correction automatically, thus avoiding the manual choice of time points and speeding up the estimation of coseismic deformation. We use the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan and the 2003 Chengkung and 2006 Taitung earthquakes in eastern Taiwan to illustrate this new approach. Comparison between the results from this and previous studies shows that our new procedure is suitable for quick and reliable determination of coseismic deformation from strong-motion records.

Effect of a single vibrating building on free-field ground motion: numerical and experimental evidences

The influence of vibrating buildings on the free-field ground motion could affect the earthquake recordings collected inside or nearby the buildings. Some evidences are known for large structures, but also small buildings could adversely affect the quality of the recordings. An example is given for a station of the Italian Accelerometric Network whose recordings show a clear mark of the frequency of the host building. To tackle this problem in a more general way, we performed numerical simulations whose first aim was to validate existing empirical evidence from a test site. Gallipoli et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 96:2457–2464, 2006) monitored a release test on a 2-storey R.C. building in Bagnoli (Italy), showing that a single vibrating building may affect the “free-field” motion with an influence that reaches 20% of peak ground acceleration. We re-analysed the data of that experiment following the Safak (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 17:509–517, 1998) approach to building-soil motion, described as propagation of up- and down-going S-waves. The numerical model is a chain of single degree of freedom oscillators, whose dynamic behaviour depends on mass, stiffness and damping. The agreement between the synthetic and real data encouraged us to use this model to reproduce generalised structures as systems with a single degree of freedom. We run multiple tests varying the distance, between building and station, and the building-soil coupling, obtaining a statistical distribution of the influence of a single vibrating building on free-field ground motion taking into account the distance.

Horizontal and vertical ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian Accelerometric Archive (ITACA)

A set of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for the Italian territory is proposed, exploiting a new strong-motion data set become available since July 2007 through the Italian Accelerometric Archive (ITACA). The data set is composed by 561 three-component waveforms from 107 earthquakes with moment magnitude in the range 4.0–6.9, occurred in Italy from 1972 to 2007 and recorded by 206 stations at distances up to 100 km. The functional form used to derive GMPEs in Italy (Sabetta and Pugliese in Bull Seismol Soc Am 86(2):337–352, 1996) has been modified introducing a quadratic term for magnitude and a magnitude-dependent geometrical spreading. The coefficients for the prediction of horizontal and vertical peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and 5% damped acceleration response spectra are evaluated. This paper illustrates the new data set, the regression analysis and the comparisons with recently derived GMPEs in Europe and in the Next Generation Attenuation of Ground Motions (NGA) Project.

Towards a new reference ground motion prediction equation for Italy: update of the Sabetta–Pugliese (1996)

A revised Italian strong motion archive has become available since July 2007, including all the records of the strongest events occurred from 1972 to 2004. It contains the uncorrected and corrected accelerograms and the metadata relevant to seismic events, recording stations and instruments added after a careful revision. The availability of this archive allowed us to perform a first step towards an update of the reference ground motion prediction equations for Italy, which were evaluated by Sabetta and Pugliese in (Bull Seismol Soc Am 77:1491–1513, 1987), for peak ground acceleration and velocity, and subsequently extended to the 5% damped pseudovelocity response spectra in 1996. A subset with the 27 major earthquakes occurred in Italy from 1972 to 2002, in the magnitude range 4.6–6.9, was extracted and 235 good quality waveforms were selected, recorded at distances up to 183 km. The goodness of fit of the Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seismol Soc Am 86:337–352, 1996) model was explored using two independent statistical approaches (Spudich et al. Bull Seismol Soc Am 89:1156–1170, 1999 and Scherbaum et al. Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:2164–2185, 2004). The results obtained show that the Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seismol Soc Am 77:1491–1513, 1987) does not adequately fit the new strong-motion data set, for its small standard deviation and its non-zero bias. In particular, the most noteworthy result is that the Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seismol Soc Am 77:1491–1513, 1987) over-predicts peak ground acceleration and velocity at rock sites. New coefficients for the prediction of horizontal peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and acceleration response spectra, adopting the same functional form in Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seismol Soc Am 77:1491–1513, 1987), were then evaluated in order to fit the new data set. This paper illustrates the steps made to update the existing ground motion prediction equations for Italy, discusses their limitations and provides the basis for future developments.

Stochastic modeling of Iranian earthquakes and estimation of ground motion for future earthquakes in Greater Tehran

Strong-motion data from eight significant well-documented earthquakes in Iran have been simulated using a stochastic modeling technique for finite faults proposed by Beresnev and Atkinson [Bull Seismol Soc Am 87 (1997) 67–84; Seism Res Lett 69 (1998) 27–32]. The database consists of 61 three-component records from eight earthquakes of magnitude ranging from M 6.3 to M 7.4, recorded at hypocentral distances up to 200 km. The model predictions are in good agreement with available Iranian strong-motion data as evidenced by near-zero average of differences between logarithms of the observed and predicted values for all frequencies. The strength factor, sfact, a quantity that controls the high-frequency radiation from the source is determined, on an event-by-event basis, by fitting simulated to observed response spectra. The calibrated model has been used in the second part of this study to predict ground motions in the Tehran metropolitan area from future large earthquakes along three faults in the Alborz seismic zone (ASZ), which are the most active and hazardous faults near the city. Peak horizontal accelerations (PHA) from our scenario earthquakes exceed 0.7 g, with the highest PHA in the North West parts of the city. Potentially damaging ground motions of 0.1 g and greater extend along the west and south of the city at distances of 10–35 km from the city border. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine how the most critical input parameter (i.e. sfact) influences the PHA distribution for each scenario. Comparisons have been made between the results obtained with the above model and empirical attenuation models developed for Iran and other similar regions. Results are also validated to the extent possible using the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) observations from the 1830 earthquake in the ASZ. The calibrated model can produce the distribution of intensities documented from historical reports and the simulated motions are consistent with MMI observations.

Attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration and velocity in the Southern Dead Sea Transform region

Using the recorded earthquake strong ground motion, the attenuation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) are derived in the southern Dead Sea Transform region. The expected values of strong motion parameters from future earthquakes are estimated from attenuation equations, which are determined by regression analysis on real accelerograms. In this study, the method of Joyner and Boor [Bull Seismol Soc Am 71(6):2011–2038, 1981] was selected to produce the attenuation model for the southern Dead Sea Transform region. The dataset for PGA consists of 57 recordings from 30 earthquakes and for PGV 26 recordings from 19 earthquakes. The attenuation relations developed in this study are proposed as replacement for former probabilistic relations that have been used for a variety of earthquake engineering applications. The comparison between the derived PGA relations from this study with the former relations clearly shows significant lower values than the other relations.

A reappraisal of shear wave splitting parameters from Italian active volcanic areas through a semiautomatic algorithm

Shear wave splitting parameters represent a useful tool to detail the stress changes occurring in volcanic environments before impending eruptions. In the present paper, we display the parameter estimates obtained through implementation of a semiautomatic algorithm applied to all useful datasets of the following Italian active volcanic areas: Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Mt. Etna. Most of these datasets have been the object of several studies (Bianco et al., Annali di Geofisica, XXXXIX 2:429–443, 1996, J Volcanol Geotherm Res 82:199–218, 1998a, Geophys Res Lett 25(10):1545–1548, 1998b, Phys Chem Earth 24:977–983, 1999, J Volcanol Geotherm Res 133:229–246, 2004, Geophys J Int 167(2):959–967, 2006; Del Pezzo et al., Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(2):439–452, 2004). Applying the semiautomatic algorithm, we confirmed the results obtained in previous studies, so we do not discuss in much detail each of our findings but give a general overview of the anisotropic features of the investigated Italian volcanoes. In order to make a comparison among the different volcanic areas, we present our results in terms of the main direction of the fast polarization (φ) and percentage of shear wave anisotropy (ξ).

Ground motions observed during the 15 August 2007 Pisco, Peru, earthquake

A Mw 7.9 earthquake event occurred on 15 August 2007 off the coast of central Peru, 60 km west of the city of Pisco. This event is associated with subduction processes at the interface of the Nazca and South American plates, and was characterised by a complex source mechanism involving rupture on two main asperities, with unilateral rupture propagation to the southeast. The rupture process is clearly reflected in the ground motions recorded during this event, which include two separate episodes of strong shaking. The event triggered 18 accelerographic stations; the recordings are examined in terms of their characteristics and compared to the predictions of ground-motion prediction equations for subduction environments, using the maximum-likelihood-based method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2164–2185, 2004). Additionally, macroseismic observations and damage patterns are examined and discussed in the light of local construction practices, drawing on field observations gathered during the post-earthquake reconnaissance missions.

Strong motion uncertainty determined from observed records by dense network in Japan

The variation of ground motions at specific stations from events in six narrow areas was inspected by using K-NET and KiK-net records. A source-area factor for individual observation stations was calculated by averaging ratios between observed values for horizontal peak acceleration and velocity, as well as acceleration response spectra for 5% damping, and predicted values using a ground-motion model (usually known as an attenuation relation) by Kanno et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 96:879–897, 2006). Standard deviations between observed and predicted amplitudes after the correction factor are less than 0.2 on the logarithmic scale and decrease down to around 0.15 in the short-period range. Intra-event standard deviation clearly increases with decreasing distance due to differing paths around near source area. Standard deviations may increase with amplitude or decrease with magnitude; however, both amplitude and magnitude of the data are strongly correlated with distance. The standard deviation calculated in this study is obviously much smaller than that of the original ground-motion model, as epistemic uncertainties are minimized by grouping ground motions at specific stations. This result indicates that the accuracy of strong ground motion prediction could be improved if ground-motion models for specified region are determined individually. For this to be possible, it is necessary to have dense strong-motion networks in high-seismicity regions, such as K-NET and KiK-net.

Late Quaternary paleoseismic evidence on the Munébrega half-graben fault (Iberian Range, Spain)

The Munebrega Plio-Quaternary half-graben is a NW-SE trending neotectonic depression located in the central sector of the intraplate Iberian Range (NE Spain). The master fault of the half-graben offsets an Upper Pleistocene pediment deposit, forming an upslope-facing scarp. A trench dug across the fault scarp exposed a 25-m wide deformation zone consisting of graben and horst fault blocks with fissures in the upper part of the scarp, and a monoclinal flexure affected by normal and reverse faults in the lower part of the scarp. We infer a minimum of three faulting events over the past 72 ka, yielding an average (maximum) recurrence interval of 24 ka. The oldest event (72–41 ka) produced an antislope scarp on the relict pediment surface, confining deposition to the downthrown block. Cross-cutting faults affecting sedimentary units deposited in the sediment trap produced by the first event provide evidence for at least two younger events (33–19? ka). The measured cumulative vertical displacement (7.4 m) yield a minimum vertical slip rate of 0.10 ± 0.01 mm/year (2σ error) for the past 72 ka. If the paleoearthquakes ruptured the whole mappable length of the fault (ca. 20 km), they probably had moment magnitudes ca. 6.9 (Stirling et al. Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2002). Such earthquakes would have been more than a magnitude unit larger than the largest ones recorded historically in the Iberian Range. These results suggest that the official seismic hazard assessments, based solely on the historic and instrumental record, may underestimate the seismic hazard in the area.

Analysis of pile groups under vertical harmonic vibration

In this paper, a simple method is proposed for the analysis of vertically loaded pile groups under dynamic conditions. The method makes use of the closed-form stiffness matrices derived by Kausel and Roësset [Kausel E, Roësset JM. Stiffness matrices for layered soils. Bull Seismol Soc Am 1981;71(6):1743–61] to simulate the response of layered soils. These matrices are incorporated in a calculation procedure that is essentially analytical. Further computational advantages of the procedure derive from the fact that, under the simplified assumptions of free-field soil displacements and symmetry of the pile–soil interaction forces, the analysis of a pile group may be achieved simply using the solution for the single pile. Moreover, the soil layering effect is reliably accounted for. The accuracy of the method is assessed by comparing the results with those deduced from other existing theoretical solutions. The method is also used to predict the experimental measurements from dynamic tests on pile groups documented in literature.