Bulk Freight Research Articles

Analyzing the Impact of Interest Rate on Dry Bulk Freight Market with Time-Varying Causality Method

Faiz oranları hem gemi yatırımlarındaki maliyeti belirleyici rolü hem de dünya ekonomisindeki mallara olan talebi belirleyici rolü ile denizcilik piyasalarını da önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Biz bu çalışmamızda diğer denizcilik piyasalarının temeli olan ve onlara göre çok daha dinamik yapıda olan navlun piyasasına olan etkisini incelemeyi amaçladık. Faiz oranlarındaki değişimin dünya ekonomisini etkileyeceğini ancak bu etkinin tüm dönem boyunca varlığını sürdüremeyeceğinden yola çıkarak, önce doğrusal bir yaklaşımla, daha sonra ise zamana göre değişen bir yaklaşımla analizleri uyguladık. Analizlerde küresel faiz oranlarının göstergesi olarak Federal Fon Oranı, kuru dökme yük navlunlarının göstergesi olarak ise Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BKYE) kullanılmıştır. 1995 ve 2020 yılları arasını kapsayan aylık 302 gözlemden oluşan veri seti kullanılarak zamana göre değişen yaklaşım ile yapılan analizler sonucunda, anlamlı ilişkinin tüm örneklem boyunca var olmadığı, sadece belli zamanlarda görüldüğü ve anlamlı ilişkinin görüldüğü dönemlerin BKYE’nin artış ve düşüş eğilimine girdiği dönemler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Böylece faiz oranlarındaki değişimlerin yalnızca küresel ekonomiyi etkilemekle kalmayıp, kuru dökme yük navlun piyasasının eğilimini de etkilediği belirlenmiştir.

Inland rail freight services with less fuel and lower emissions

Many countries have enhanced their air quality agenda (NOx, PMx etc.) by a climate change agenda (CO2 etc.). A direct way to lower these emissions is by using less energy (fuel) per activity. One of these activities is freight transport. Transport from supplier to factory relies on efficient and cost-effective means of transport. Road transport (trucking) is usually preferred. But, trucking is still very dependent on fossil fuels. It is also not suitable for bulk transport over longer distances. In areas without suitable waterways, rail is a logical alternative, but is has its own perils. This paper discusses options to make bulk freight services between Germany and France compliant with emission reduction targets. This leads to the main research question: Is it possible to design rail freight routes that reduce fuel use, emissions of CO2, NOx and PM10, while offering competitive transport times? Main rail corridors show signs of congestion and lack of resilience. It is then interesting to research if (dormant) regional/rural, non-electrified, rail tracks could provide capacity and increase resilience of rail services. Such services could also benefit rural economies. A literature study and conversations with a regional expert were used to develop a case study with a rail service using alternative routes. A model was used to estimate the fuel consumption, emissions and trip times of such services. The study indicates that it takes concerted action to achieve the intended goals.

Dry bulk shipping and the evolution of maritime transport costs, 1850–2020

AbstractWe provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyse a new dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant.

The interrelationship between ocean, rail, truck and air freight rates

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the long-term cointegrating relationship between ocean, rail, truck and air cargo freight rates, as well as the short-term dynamics between these four series. The authors also test the predictive ability of these freight rates on major economic indicators.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a vector error-correction model using 16 years of monthly time series data on freight rate data in the ocean, truck, rail and air cargo sectors to examine the interrelationship between these series as well as their interrelationship with major economic indicators.FindingsThe authors find that truck freight rates and as well as dry bulk freight rates have the strongest predictive power over other transportation freight rates as well as for the four major economic indicators used in this study. The authors find that dry bulk freight rates lead other freight rates in the short-run but lag other freight rates in the long run.Originality/valueWhile ocean freight rate time series have been examined in a large number of studies, little research has been done on the interrelationship between ocean freight rates and the freight rates of other modes of transportation. Through the use of data on five different freight rate series, the authors are able to assess which rates lead and which rates lag each other and thus assist future researchers and practitioners forecast freight rates. The authors are also one of the few studies to assess the predictive power of non-ocean freight rates on major economic indicators.

Выбор варианта размещения и перевозки сыпучих грузов железнодорожнымтранспортом

One of the main conditions for using the efficiency of the use of freight traffic is the substantiation of the technical standards for loading into a carriage, which makes it possible to increase the efficiency of using a freight car. The analysis showed that the carrying capacity of the car is not fully utilized, and in order to increase the carrying capacity of the car, options for the transportation of bulk freight transport have been proposed. The article considered options for the transportation of bulk cargo in bags and soft containers (big bags), they were also compared, for the further release of a specialized wagon fleet for the transportation of export types of cargo. The aim of the study is to substantiate the choice of the type of wagons for the transportation of bulk cargo by rail. The research methods are based on the existing methods of searching for the rational transportation of goods by rail. A methodology for calculating options for placing cargo in a car is presented. A technical and economic calculation of the effectiveness of the options under consideration for transportation by rail has been made, which in turn will determine a rational option for the transportation of bulk cargo. Recommendations are given for the transportation of bulk cargo by rail, which, in turn, will make it possible to correctly and rationally choose the type of carriage and make the most of the carrying capacity of the carriage, depending on the conditions of transportation.

Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020

We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks, and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyze a new and large dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant.

Capturing the impact of economic forces on the dry bulk freight market

This study focuses on the construction of a composite indicator which is designed to measure the component of economic activity that drives demand for sea transport of dry bulk commodities. Various economic factors are identified and then reduced to the most critical ones using statistical analysis. The study tests three different approaches for the aggregation and weighing of the selected variables. The statistical results indicate that a Deviation-based Goal Programming model is the most robust method for the construction of a composite indicator in the context of the dry cargo shipping freight market. Granger Causality and Impulse Response analysis are used to investigate the association between the new index and the dry bulk freight rates. Overall, the results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed composite indicator. This new index may allow more effective monitoring of economic developments and more accurate assessment of their aggregate impact. In this regard, the proposed indicator could potentially serve as a decision support tool for ship operators and other maritime practitioners. This is the first time that the most critical elements of the economic environment of the shipping freight market are captured through a composite indicator.

Complexity economics analysis of the international dry bulk freight rate system

From the perspective of complexity economics, this paper studied the international dry bulk freight rate system, put forward the concept and structure model of the international dry bulk freight rate system and summarized its characteristics such as emergent properties, dynamicity, evolution and innovation, nonlinearity and non-equilibrium, which provides a new idea and research method for the study of the international dry bulk freight rate system.

Identifying shipowners’ risk attitudes over gains and losses: Evidence from the dry bulk freight market

This study examines the risk-return trade-off in the dry bulk freight market under different scenarios such as risk measures, risk attitudes and controlling for variables associated with the freight rate cycle. For long-term contracts, there exists a negative association between risk and return, suggesting that shipowners are willing to offer a discount on time-charter rates over spot rates to compensate for the loss of flexibility. Additionally, shipowners are not uniformly risk averse, as finance theory suggests, since their utility functions are concave (risk-averse) for losses and convex (risk-seeking) for gains.

Technical analysis: the psychology of the market of dry bulk freight rates

Financial technical analysis of markets and trends differs from fundamental analysis in that econometrics are used on “fundamental” economic data in fundamental analysis. Technical analysis, however, adds to the overall trend analysis an additional examination of the psychology of markets. For freight rate predictions, there has been an exclusive reliance on typical fundamental analysis. Our results indicate that adding technical analysis to freight rate prediction can provide a better overall result. Psychological forces such as “irrational exuberance” or severe bearishness can influence trend predictions making them at best incomplete and at worst inaccurate for predicting the demand for shipping services. Further, ship construction decisions use freight rate predictions. In this paper, we perform a 20-year technical analysis of the BDI/Baltic Dry Index (formerly BFI/Baltic Freight Index) This analysis is a better, richer evaluation of freight rate trends that influence ship construction. Furthermore, technical analysis requires specific in-depth knowledge of the psychology of the market and experience in this type of trend analysis.

Research on the Status Quo of China’s Shipping Economy Development and Enterprise Transformation Strategy

With the decline of the world economy, the world shipping market is facing a series of crises such as the reduction of supply, and these crises are also the dilemma faced by Chinese shipping companies. Through the analysis of the important index BDI of the international shipping market, this paper realizes the trend of the international shipping market since the crisis of financial integration, and based on this, forecasts the international shipping market. At the same time, we analyze the important index of China’s shipping industry, China’s coastal bulk freight index (CCBFI) and China’s export container freight index (CCFI), which gives us a clearer understanding of the domestic and international shipping market situation. The business model is already suitable for the current shipping market and has reached the edge of change. Finally, based on market analysis, this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of China’s shipping companies, and puts forward targeted development and transformation opinions on the disadvantages.

Stabilisation of Stiffer Rail Track Substructure Using Artificial Inclusion

The railway transport system in many countries plays a significant role in the passage of bulk freight and passengers. However, increased train speeds and higher freight loads (large dynamic wheel loads) accelerate the deterioration of rail track substructure. This problem is more critical in isolated rail track locations where the track substructure is much stiffer than the regular surface track assembly such as track at the bridges and tunnels. Ballast is a key track foundation material placed underneath the sleepers which provides structural support against high cyclic and impact stresses caused by moving trains. Inclusion of rubber mats called under ballast mats (UBMs) placed between the ballast and stiffer base layer is one of the measures to minimise the ballast deterioration. In this study, cyclic loads representing fast and heavy haul trains were simulated on stiffer track foundation condition using a large-scale process simulation prismoidal triaxial apparatus to investigate the mitigation of strain, stress and degradation characteristics of ballast stabilised with UBM. These UBMs were locally manufactured from recycled tyre wastes. The results show that ballast on a stiff foundation substructure stabilised with UBM experienced significantly less vertical and lateral deformation, ballast interface and inter-particle stresses and degradation. This study also confirmed that the recycled tyre UBMs used in this study had adequate damping to absorb the energy transmitted to the moving train to the track, thus preventing excessive plastic deformation and degradation of the ballast layer.

Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: New evidence from a dynamic factor model

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper, to utilise a novel dynamic factor model to investigate the economic relationships between 65 commodity (including oil, energy, metal, ores, and agricultural products), maritime transportation (including tanker and dry bulk freight rates) and financial (including derivatives products) markets, under three different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly) in a single methodological framework. The paper overcomes a limitation of the previous literature that uses pairwise models, and as such, informational cross-market relationships which may have been ignored or not captured are uncovered for the first time. Results indicate strong economic relationships from commodity to freight markets, with crude oil prices serving as the leading (price discovery) indicator among all the investigated markets, but also between different sub-markets. The results are important to international investors and traders, but also provide essential insights to policymakers and regulators, in terms of commercial strategies, asset positioning, network supply chain modelling, asset investment allocation, budgeting and risk management.

Method for determining road rut depth and power related to rutting upon wheel rolling

Wheeled tractors as well as wheeled excavation and road-building machines are widely used in road construction and municipal services. The group of wheeled vehicles with numerous and varied purposes and designs includes vehicles used for the general transportation of various types of bulk freight and special-purpose vehicles.A distinguishing feature of these types of wheeled vehicles is their ability to operate not only on asphalt-concrete roads but on deforming soil surfaces as well.Upon wheel rolling on the ground, the consumption of power required to ensure the machine movement increases sharply, and issues related to cross-country ability arise. In this relation, it becomes necessary to consider various aspects of machine movement in these conditions, in particular, determine the power spent on rutting and the rut depth, which is the purpose of the present study.The use of the “indented wheel” model allowed us to obtain relatively simple relationships and calculate the rut depth and the power spent on wheel rolling on deforming soil. The results of calculations using the derived equations are in good agreement with experimental data, which indicates the practical applicability of the obtained relationships.

THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH ON DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES

Dry bulk freight market is one of the most important indicators of global economic activity as it is the market for the transportation of raw materials that make up final products. So, the world economy is one of the most important demand factors for maritime transport. But supply in the maritime market is inelastic and the market cannot immediately respond to sudden demand growth and rates declines in the short run. Therefore, the sudden increases and decreases in the economy result in extraordinary income changes in the freight market. In this framework, the influence of economic growth on freight rates is an important issue to be examined. This study aims to contribute to the current literature by empirically examining the effect of economic growth on the dry bulk market. World GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was selected as a measure of economic activities, and BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was chosen as a measure of dry bulk freight rates. The dataset covers the years between 1985 and 2016 on annual basis and consists of 32 observations. The relationship between variables was tried to be determined by correlation and regression analysis. According to the results of the study, the positive relationship between the variables was determine and the BDI's response to GDP changes was found to be greater. These results confirm how risky the maritime market is.

An Empirical Study on the Effect of the Factors Influencing on the Dry Bulk Freight Rate

An Empirical Study on the Effect of the Factors Influencing on the Dry Bulk Freight Rate

Dynamic patterns of dry bulk freight spot rates through the lens of a time-varying coefficient model

To overcome high volatile fluctuations, shipping agents should understand the dynamics of freight rates, which will enhance the management efficiency of their revenues and market risks. In the literature, most vector auto-regression (VAR) and vector error correction (VECM) models of dry bulk freight markets assume that the coefficients are time-invariant. However, the relationships measured by the coefficients could change over time, e.g., due to changing market sentiments. Therefore, this study seeks a time-varying coefficient-error correction model (TVC-ECM) with backwardation degree “coefficient driver,” to unveil some hidden dynamic patterns. In advance, the presumption, that there are two distinct shocks, such as transitory and permanent ones, is suggested based on some recursive VAR model. Then, two empirical findings are derived. First, in the daily cases, the values of time-varying coefficients of the past spot and forward freight agreement (FFA) rates in the prediction equation increase when the market deviates more from the long-run equilibrium. Second, incorporating the information such as backwardation or contango into the traditional adjustment speed coefficient in the VECM framework marginally improves forecasting performance.

Influence of Under Sleeper Pads on Ballast Behavior Under Cyclic Loading: Experimental and Numerical Studies

Railway industries are placing greater emphasis on implementing fast and heavy haul corridors for bulk freight and commuter transport in order to deliver more efficient and cost-effective services. However, increasing dynamic stresses from the passage of trains progressively degrades and fouls the primary load-bearing ballast layer, which inevitably leads to excessive settlement and instability, damage to track elements, and more frequent maintenance. Ballasted tracks are subjected to even greater stresses and faster deterioration in sections where a reduced ballast thickness is used (e.g., bridge decks) or at locations where heavier concrete sleepers are used instead of lightweight timber sleepers. The inclusion of under sleeper pads (USPs) at the base of a concrete sleeper is one measure used to minimize dynamic stresses and subsequent track deterioration. In this study, cyclic loads from fast and heavy haul trains were simulated using a large-scale process simulation prismoidal triaxial apparatus (PSPTA) to investigate the performance of ballast improved by USPs. The laboratory results indicate that the inclusion of an elastic element at the harder interface of the concrete sleeper–ballast reduces the stresses transmitted to the ballast and the underlying layers and minimizes the amount of deformation and degradation of the ballast. A three-dimensional finite-element model was used to predict the behavior of ballast, and the influence of USPs on the stress–strain responses of ballast generally agree with the experimental findings.

Improved performance of geosynthetics enhanced ballast: laboratory and numerical studies

Ballasted rail tracks form one of the most important worldwide transportation modes in terms of traffic tonnage, serving the needs of bulk freight and passenger movement. High impact and cyclic loads can cause a significant deformation leading to poor track geometry. In order to mitigate these problems, the concept of the inclusion of geosynthetics in rail tracks is introduced. This paper presents the current state-of-the-art knowledge of rail track geomechanics, including results obtained from laboratory testing, field investigations and numerical modelling to study the load–deformation behaviour of ballast improved by geosynthetics. The shear stress–strain and deformation behaviour of geosynthetic-reinforced ballast are investigated in the laboratory using a large-scale direct shear test device, a track process simulation apparatus and a drop-weight impact testing equipment. Computational modelling using the discrete-element method is employed to simulate geosynthetic-reinforced ballasted tracks, capturing the discrete nature of ballast aggregates when subjected to various types of loading and boundary conditions. Discrete-element modelling is also used to conduct micromechanical analysis at the interface between ballast and geogrid, providing further insight into the behaviour of ballast subjected to cyclic loadings. These results provide promising approaches to incorporate into existing track design routines catering for future high-speed trains and heavier heavy hauls.

Asymmetric volatility varies in different dry bulk freight rate markets under structure breaks

The past decade has experienced the historical boom and recession in the dry bulk shipping market, which is extremely volatile and more complex than ever before. The asymmetric correlations analysis within the shipping market can provide an understanding of the asymmetric features of risk, which would be helpful for portfolio diversification and risk management. This paper investigates the asymmetric volatility characteristics in dry bulk freight market during the 2008 world financial crisis, which may impose significant impacts on the mechanism of market volatility. First, we apply multiple structural change model to detect the breaking points. Then an improved A-MF-DFA (Asymmetric Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis) model is applied to capture the asymmetric volatility of the dry bulk shipping market brought by the financial crisis. The empirical results suggest that the financial shocks on the market have a different magnitude of influence on volatility of different vessel types, and the breaking point positions also varies. The positions and scales of the switching points (SPs) of the fluctuation trend detected from A-MF-DFA method also suggest highly asymmetric characteristics in the indices. These findings supply new perspectives for investors in understanding the underlying market risks, crisis effects on bulk shipping market and detailed volatility characters for specific vessel types.