Building Damage Estimation Research Articles

A Damage Scenario for the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes and Estimation of the Economic Losses to Residential Buildings

In May 2012 a seismic sequence occurred in Northern Italy that was characterized by two main shocks with a magnitude range between 5.5 and 6. These shocks represent a good case study by which to quantify the monetary losses caused by a moderate earthquake in a densely populated and economically well-developed area. The loss estimation accounts for damage to residential buildings, and considers the full effect of all the seismic aftershock events that lasted for nearly a month. The building damage estimation is based on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) definitions, which depict the effects of an earthquake on built-up areas in terms of observed intensities. Input data sources are the residential building census provided by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica—the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)—and the official market value of real estate assets, obtained from the Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare—the Real Estate Market Observatory (OMI). These data make it possible to quantify the economic losses due to earthquakes, an economic indicator updated yearly. The proposed multidisciplinary method takes advantage of seismic, engineering, and economic data sets, and is able to provide a reasonable after the event losses scenario. Data are not gathered for each single building and the intensity values are not a simple hazard indicator, but, notwithstanding its coarseness, this method ensures both robust and reproducible results. As the local property value is available throughout the Italian territory, the present loss assessment can be effortlessly repeated for any area, and may be quickly reproduced in case of future events, or used for predictive economic estimations.

Verification of a Method for Estimating Building Damage in Extensive Tsunami Affected Areas Using L-Band SAR Data

Remote sensing technology is effective for identifying the Remote sensing technology is effective for identifying the extensive damage caused by tsunami disasters. Many methods have been developed to detect building damage at the building unit scale. Of these methods, X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data has a high resolution and is useful to investigate the detailed conditions on the Earth’s surface, although its spatial coverage is relatively small. In contrast, L-band SAR data has a lower resolution, leading to difficulties detecting building damage, although it can cover a broad area. During disasters, it is important to understand the damage across extensive areas in a short time; therefore, it is necessary to develop a method with broad coverage with high accuracy. The primary objective of this study is to develop a method to estimate building damage in tsunami affected areas using L-band SAR (ALOS/PALSAR) data. We developed our method by extending a previously proposed method for X-band SAR (TerraSAR-X) data. This study focused on Sendai City and Watari town in Miyagi Prefecture, where many houses were washed away during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. We verified that the function we developed produced good performance in estimating the number of washed-away buildings, corresponding with ground truth data with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97. Verification was conducted in another study area, which yielded a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.87.

Estimating building vulnerability to volcanic ash fall for insurance and other purposes

Volcanic ash falls are one of the most widespread and frequent volcanic hazards, and are produced by all explosive volcanic eruptions. Ash falls are arguably the most disruptive volcanic hazard because of their ability to affect large areas and to impact a wide range of assets, even at relatively small thicknesses. From an insurance perspective, the most valuable insured assets are buildings. Ash fall vulnerability curves or functions, which relate the magnitude of ash fall to likely damage, are the most developed for buildings, although there have been important recent advances for agriculture and infrastructure. In this paper, we focus on existing vulnerability functions developed for volcanic ash fall impact on buildings, and apply them to a hypothetical building portfolio impacted by a modern-day Tambora 1815 eruption scenario. We compare and contrast the different developed functions and discuss some of the issues surrounding estimation of potential building damage following a volcanic eruption. We found substantial variability in the different vulnerability estimates, which contribute to large uncertainties when estimating potential building damage and loss. Given the lack of detailed and published studies of building damage resulting from ash fall this is not surprising, although it also appears to be the case for other natural hazards for which there are far more empirical damage data. Notwithstanding the potential limitations of some empirical data in constraining vulnerability functions, efforts are required to improve our estimates of building damage under ash fall loading through the collection of damage data, experimental testing and perhaps theoretical failure analysis. For insurance purposes, the current building typologies provided for use with vulnerability functions are too detailed to map to the relatively limited information on building types that is typically available to insurers. Thus, efforts to provide vulnerability functions that can be used where only limited information is available regarding building types would also be valuable, both for insurers and for at-risk areas that have not been subject to detailed building vulnerability surveys.

Real-time earthquake shake, damage, and loss mapping for Istanbul metropolitan area

The past devastating earthquakes in densely populated urban centers, such as the 1994 Northridge; 1995 Kobe; 1999 series of Kocaeli, Düzce, and Athens; and 2011 Van-Erciş events, showed that substantial social and economic losses can be expected. Previous studies indicate that inadequate emergency response can increase the number of casualties by a maximum factor of 10, which suggests the need for research on rapid earthquake shaking damage and loss estimation. The reduction in casualties in urban areas immediately following an earthquake can be improved if the location and severity of damages can be rapidly assessed by information from rapid response systems. In this context, a research project (TUBITAK-109M734) titled “Real-time Information of Earthquake Shaking, Damage, and Losses for Target Cities of Thessaloniki and Istanbul” was conducted during 2011–2014 to establish the rapid estimation of ground motion shaking and related earthquake damages and casualties for the target cities. In the present study, application to Istanbul metropolitan area is presented. In order to fulfill this objective, earthquake hazard and risk assessment methodology known as Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, which was developed for the Euro-Mediterranean region within the Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology EC-FP6 project, was used. The current application to the Istanbul metropolitan area provides real-time ground motion information obtained by strong motion stations distributed throughout the densely populated areas of the city. According to this ground motion information, building damage estimation is computed by using grid-based building inventory, and the related loss is then estimated. Through this application, the rapidly estimated information enables public and private emergency management authorities to take action and allocate and prioritize resources to minimize the casualties in urban areas during immediate post-earthquake periods. Moreover, it is expected that during an earthquake, rapid information of ground shaking, damage, and loss estimations will provide vital information to allow appropriate emergency agencies to take immediate action, which will help to save lives. In general terms, this study can be considered as an example for application to metropolitan areas under seismic risk.

Evaluation of the seismic risk of the unreinforced masonry building stock in Antioquia, Colombia

This paper presents the development of an exposure model for the residential building stock in Antioquia (the second most populated Department of Colombia), the development of fragility functions for unreinforced masonry buildings, and estimation of building damage for two possible seismic events. Both the exposure and fragility models are publically available and can be used to calculate damage and losses due to single events, or probabilistic seismic hazard. The exposure model includes information regarding the total built-up area, number of buildings and inhabitants, building class, and replacement cost. The methodology used for the creation of the exposure model was based on available cadastral information, survey data, and expert judgment. Fragility functions were derived using nonlinear time history analyses on single-degree-of-freedom oscillators, for unreinforced masonry structures which represent more than 60% of the building stock in the region. Both seismic scenarios indicate that an event corresponding to a return period of 500 years located within the region of interest would cause slight or moderate damage to nearly 95 thousand structures, and about 32 thousand would have severe damage or collapse. This study was developed as part of the South America Risk Assessment project, supported by the Global Earthquake Model and SwissRe Foundation.

Object-Based Method for Estimating Tsunami-Induced Damage Using TerraSAR-X Data

The object-based method we developed to estimate building damage uses high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (TerraSAR-X) data from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The damage function we developed involves the relationship between changes in the sigma nought values of pre- and postevent TerraSAR-X data and the damage ratio of washed-away buildings. We confirmed that the function performed as expected by estimating the number of washed-away buildings in homogeneous areas, agreeing well with ground truth data verified by a Pearson fs correlation coefficient of 0.99. The same damage function applied at another test site yielded a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.98. These results are sufficient to ensure transferability. We then simplified and semiautomated these processes in an ArcGIS environment, estimating building damage in the city of Sendai within 26 minutes.

A Complementary Engineering-Based Building Damage Estimation for Earthquakes in Catastrophe Modeling

Catastrophe modeling for earthquakes is conventionally designed as a probabilistic model to estimate the losses based on risk and vulnerability of a portfolio of exposures for a foreseeable set of events. This approach lacks a physical science of building damage that is linked to ground-shaking characteristics. A proposed engineering-based building damage estimation model based on established theories of seismic wave propagation and structural resonance is presented to address some of these shortcomings. A damage factor is introduced to provide an indication of the relative extent of damage to buildings. Analysis based on the proposed methodology is carried out using data derived from four case studies: the 2011 Tohoku earthquake; the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake; the 2011 Christchurch earthquake; and the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Results show that the computed damage factors reasonably reflect the extent of actual damage to buildings that was observed in post-earthquake reconnaissance surveys. This indicates that the proposed damage simulation model has a promising future as a complementary assessment tool in building damage estimation in catastrophe modeling.

A multivariate generalized linear tsunami fragility model for Kesennuma City based on maximum flow depths, velocities and debris impact, with evaluation of predictive accuracy

The recent losses caused by the unprecedented 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami disaster have stimulated further research efforts, notably in the mechanisms and probabilistic determination of tsunami-induced damage, in order to provide the necessary information for future risk assessment and mitigation. The stochastic approach typically adopts fragility functions, which express the probability that a building will reach or exceed a predefined damage level usually for one, sometimes several measures of tsunami intensity. However, improvements in the derivation of fragility functions are still needed in order to yield reliable predictions of tsunami damage to buildings. In particular, extensive disaggregated databases, as well as measures of tsunami intensity beyond the commonly used tsunami flow depth should be used to potentially capture variations in the data which have not been explained by previous models. This study proposes to derive fragility functions with additional intensity measures for the city of Kesennuma, which was extensively damaged during the 2011 tsunami and for which a large and disaggregated dataset of building damage is available. In addition to the surveyed tsunami flow depth, the numerically estimated flow velocities as well as a binary indicator of debris impact are included in the model and used simultaneously to estimate building damage probabilities. Following the recently proposed methodology for fragility estimation based on generalized linear models, which overcomes the shortcomings of classic linear regression in fragility analyses, ordinal regression is applied and the reliability of the model estimates is assessed using a proposed penalized accuracy measure, more suitable than the traditional classification error rate for ordinal models. In order to assess the predictive power of the model, penalized accuracy is estimated through a repeated tenfold cross-validation scheme. For the first time, multivariate tsunami fragility functions are derived and represented in the form of fragility surfaces. The results show that the model is able to predict tsunami damage with satisfactory predictive accuracy and that debris impact is a crucial factor in the determination of building collapse probabilities.

Correlations between structural damage and ground motion parameters during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

The Wenchuan Earthquake with a magnitude of Ms 8.0 struck the Sichuan province of China on May 12, 2008, where it mainly affected the area along the Longmenshan fault. In total, 420 three-component acceleration records were obtained by the China Strong Motion Networks Centre during this seismic event, among which over 50 records exceeded 100gal. In the present study, we collected 48 near-fault acceleration records to derive strong ground motion parameters in terms of the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, peak spectrum acceleration (5% of the damping ratio) and spectrum intensity (5% of damping ratio). We determined the building collapse ratios (CRs) for 20 targeted districts based on data acquired from both the China Earthquake Administration and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, where the CRs combined the data for all building types. Fragility curves were established between the CRs and the corresponding ground motion parameters, based on which the damage criteria were proposed. In particular, we derived the fragility curves for brick-concrete structures and frame-structures. These curves indicate how different structural types can determine the damage sustained. In addition, we developed a method for estimating building damage classifications. If we assume that buildings are built according to the improved Seismic Fortification Criterion in the revised “Code for Seismic Design of Buildings”, the predicted CRs for the 20 targeted districts would be significantly lower compared with the actual damage they sustained, which illustrates the validity of both the method and the revised code.

Application of fragility curves to estimate building damage and economic loss at a community scale: a case study of Seaside, Oregon

Community-scale estimates of building damage and economic loss are modeled for Seaside, Oregon, for Cascadia subduction zone events ranging from 8.7 to 9.3 MW with corresponding slip distances of 3–25 m considering only the effects of the tsunami. Numerical simulations are obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s method of splitting tsunami model which includes a source model, subsidence, and calculations of the propagation and inundation flow characteristics. The damage estimates are based on fragility curves from the literature which relate flow depth with probability of damage for two different structural materials of buildings. Calculations are performed at the parcel level for the inundation hazard without including damage caused by the earthquake itself. Calculations show that the severity of building damage in Seaside is sensitive to the magnitude of the event or degree of slip because the majority of the city is located on low-lying coastal land within the estimated inundation zone. For the events modeled, the percentage of building within the inundation zone ranges from 9 to 88 %, with average direct economic losses ranging from $2 million to $1.2 billion.

Development of Earthquake-Induced Building Damage Estimation Model Based on ALOS/PALSAR Observing the 2007 Peru Earthquake

With the aim of developing a model for estimating building damage from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data in the L-band, which is appropriate for Peru, we propose a regression discriminant function based on field survey data in Pisco, which was seriously damaged in the 2007 Peru earthquake. The proposed function discriminates among damage ranks corresponding to the severe damage ratio of buildings using ALOS/PALSAR imagery of the disaster area before and after the earthquake. By calculating differences in and correlations of backscattering coefficients, which were explanatory variables of the regression discriminant function, we determined an optimum window size capable of estimating the degree of damage more accurately. A normalized likelihood function for the severe damage ratio was developed based on discriminant scores of the regression discriminant function. The distribution of the severe damage ratio was accurately estimated, furthermore, from PALSAR imagery using data integration of the likelihood function with fragility functions in terms of the seismic intensity of the earthquake.

Optimal filtering methods to structural damage estimation under ground excitation.

This paper considers the problem of shear building damage estimation subject to earthquake ground excitation using the Kalman filtering approach. The structural damage is assumed to take the form of reduced elemental stiffness. Two damage estimation algorithms are proposed: one is the multiple model approach via the optimal two-stage Kalman estimator (OTSKE), and the other is the robust two-stage Kalman filter (RTSKF), an unbiased minimum-variance filtering approach to determine the locations and extents of the damage stiffness. A numerical example of a six-storey shear plane frame structure subject to base excitation is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed results.

2007 年ペルー地震の被災地を観測したALOS/PALSAR 画像による建物被害推定モデルの構築

ペルーに適したLバンド合成開口レーダ（SAR）画像からの建物被害推定モデルの構築を目的として，2007年ペルー地震にて甚大被害を受けたピスコ市での現地調査データに基づき，被災地を観測したALOS/PALSAR画像から建物全壊率に応じた被災ランクを判別する回帰判別関数を提案した。回帰判別関数の説明変量である後方散乱係数の差分値と相関値の算出では，被害判別精度が高くなるよう最適なウィンドウサイズを検討した。そして，回帰判別関数の判別スコアから建物全壊率に関する基準化尤度関数を構築し，さらに，この地震の震度情報に基づく被害関数との統合処理により，PALSAR画像から建物全壊率分布を精度よく推定できることを示した。

ELER software – a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment

Abstract. Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES". Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacity-based loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and ATC-55 (Yang, 2005). An urban loss assessment exercise for a scenario earthquake for the city of Istanbul is conducted and physical and social losses are presented. Damage to the urban environment is compared to the results obtained from similar software, i.e. KOERILoss (KOERI, 2002) and DBELA (Crowley et al., 2004). The European rapid loss estimation tool is expected to help enable effective emergency response, on both local and global level, as well as public information.

Influence of Location, Population, and Climate on Building Damage and Fatalities due to Australian Bushfire: 1925–2009

Abstract This study reevaluates the history of building damage and loss of life due to bushfire (wildfire) in Australia since 1925 in light of the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria in which 173 people lost their lives and 2298 homes were destroyed along with many other structures. Historical records are normalized to estimate building damage and fatalities had events occurred under the societal conditions of 2008/09. There are relationships between normalized building damage and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena, but there is no discernable evidence that the normalized data are being influenced by climatic change due to the emission of greenhouse gases. The 2009 Black Saturday fires rank second in terms of normalized fatalities and fourth in terms of normalized building damage. The public safety concern is that, of the 10 years with the highest normalized building damage, the 2008/09 bushfire season ranks third, behind the 1925/26 and 1938/39 seasons, in terms of the ratio of normalized fatalities to building damage. A feature of the building damage in the 2009 Black Saturday fires in some of the most affected towns—Marysville and Kinglake—is the large proportion of buildings destroyed either within bushland or at very small distances from it (<10 m). Land use planning policies in bushfire-prone parts of this country that allow such development increase the risk that bushfires pose to the public and the built environment.

Building Damage Estimation by Integration of Seismic Intensity Information and Satellite L-band SAR Imagery

For a quick and stable estimation of earthquake damaged buildings worldwide, using Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) loaded on the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) satellite, a model combining the usage of satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)-scale seismic intensity is proposed. In order to expand the existing C-band SAR based damage estimation model into L-band SAR, this paper rebuilds a likelihood function for severe damage ratio, on the basis of dataset from Japanese Earth Resource Satellite-1 (JERS-1)/SAR (L-band SAR) images observed during the 1995 Kobe earthquake and its detailed ground truth data. The model which integrates the fragility functions of building damage in terms of seismic intensity and the proposed likelihood function is then applied to PALSAR images taken over the areas affected by the 2007 earthquake in Pisco, Peru. The accuracy of the proposed damage estimation model is examined by comparing the results of the analyses with field investigations and/or interpretation of high-resolution satellite images.

Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System: Methods and practices

Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake. Modern technology permits measurements of strong ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System equipped with 100 instruments and two data processing centers aims at the near real time estimation of earthquake damages using most recently developed methodologies and up-to-date structural and demographic inventories of Istanbul city. The methodology developed for near real time estimation of losses after a major earthquake consists of the following general steps: (1) rapid estimation of the ground motion distribution using the strong ground motion data gathered from the instruments; (2) improvement of the ground motion estimations as earthquake parameters become available and (3) estimation of building damage and casualties based on estimated ground motions and intensities. The present paper elaborates on the ground motion and damage estimation methodologies used by the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System with a special emphasis on validation and verification of the different methods.

Development of Earthquake-induced Building Damage Estimation Model Based on Satellite L-band SAR and its Application to ALOS/PALSAR

国内外の巨大地震後の情報空白期における早期かつ確実なる被害情報の収集にALOS衛星のPALSAR画像を活用することを目的として，CバンドSARセンサに基づく既往の建物被害推定モデルをLバンドSARセンサであるPALSAR画像に適用できるよう，1995年兵庫県南部地震を観測したJERS-1衛星のSAR画像（Lバンド）から全壊率に関する尤度関数を再構築した。そして，震度情報の被害関数との統合処理により，SAR画像から建物全壊率分布を定量的に推定できることを示した。さらに，構築したモデルを2007年のペルー沖地震と2008年の中国四川地震を観測したPALSAR画像に適用し，現地調査や被害判読結果との比較から手法の妥当性を検証した。

人工衛星SAR画像による被害地域検出手法の2004年新潟県中越地震への適用と高度化

Building damage detection technique which we had developed, has been successfully applied to past earthquakes such as the 1995 Kobe, the 2001 India, and the 2003 Bam, by using the compound index, z-value, which is the value derived from the correlation and difference in intensities between pre- and post-event SAR images. This technique was applied to the affected areas due to the 2004 Niigata-ken Chuetsu earthquake on October 23, 2004, by using one pair of Radarsat images taken before and after the earthquake. However, it was not possible to identify any significant distribution of damaged buildings. In this study, we examined the reason and proposed a new technique by using two pairs (pre-seismic and co-seismic) of SAR images, to identify smaller building damage ratios in less densely built-up areas compared to previous techniques. The main idea is to minimize the effect of signal noise and tempral changes of the earth's surface, on building damage estimation, by calculating the difference values from the two pre-event images and one post-event image. In a macroscopic point of view, the distributions of the both deference values of z-value and correlation coefficient in built-up areas were in good agreement with damage by survey reports. In Yamakoshi village, located in highland, we also could identify large-scale landslides with accuracy as good as interpretation from aerial photos.

Estimation of Building Damage Due to Excavation-Induced Ground Movements

Building damage due to excavation-induced ground movement is evaluated using a damage criterion based on the average state of strain in the distorting portion of the structure, and by considering the effect of building shear stiffness on the distortions imposed by the ground settlement profile. Physical model tests and numerical simulations, correlated with case studies of building distortion and damage, have been used to evaluate these relationships for masonry bearing wall structures. The distinct element method was used to numerically model each masonry unit as a block, with the contacts between blocks having the stiffness and strength characteristics of mortar. In-plane displacements at the corners of the wall sections permitted determination of the average state of strain, and the components of rigid body tilt, angular distortion, lateral strain at the base, and the contribution of bending strain to the lateral strain in the upper portion of the wall. The increase in angular distortion with increase in the ratio of ground/structure shear stiffness (decrease in building shear stiffness) was examined for both elastic and cracked building walls. Cracking significantly reduced effective wall stiffness making the wall more conformable to the ground settlement profile, which increased angular distortion, causing it to approach the distortion (change in ground slope) that would occur in the absence of the structure.